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Starting with $50

  • #221
  • Oct 8, 2012 3:38am Oct 8, 2012 3:38am
Quoting ocd
Okay, so I was stopped out a few hours ago. We will try it again. This time I will be more cautious about the trade itself.


Pending Buy Stop

Pair: NZDUSD

Going LONG

Entry = .81850...exit = .82350

No Stop Loss this time



Why am I taking this trade?

The 4 hr chart shows two positive reasons. The first is that the daily channel indicator and the 4 hr channel indicator have lined up in a bullish direction. The second reason is that the 5,5,5 Stochastics is oversold and turning.

We...
It's a great thread and an impressive win rate in the Trade Explorer. In this post you say you have no stop loss but I am guessing you would close this manually if drawdown were excessive? What sort of % will you allow?
Gone to a better place
  • #222
  • Oct 8, 2012 10:22am Oct 8, 2012 10:22am
NZDUSD


I just closed that trade after waking up because the channel has shifted from up to down. This means the trend now has a downward momentum...probably.

Normally I would NOT exit this trade so early because the Stochastics are setting up beautifully. The problem is that I can' sit here and babysit it because I have to leave the computer and go handle some business.

It's good enough for now though as I recover some of the loss from hitting that stinkin Stop Loss last night.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour, 10-7nzdusdb.gif Size: 44 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #223
  • Oct 8, 2012 12:53pm Oct 8, 2012 12:53pm
Looks like I got out of NZDUSD in just enough time before it pulled back.

Anyway, I'm back and it's on to the next one! I do like trading more than one pair because it isn't so restrictive.

I just put in a pending order for a trade I think will be very solid today...GBPUSD...you should take a look at that one. It won't be a homerun but a nice reversal of current trend. Here's my order:


Pending Buy Stop

Entry = 1.60600...just at today's Support 3 level on the FiboPiv indicator

Exit = 1.61195...just at the Support 1 level of the FiboPiv indicator


The current 4 hr chart shows the Daily channel UP but the 4 hr channel DOWN...that means not a super strong reversal will happen BUT the price is trading at the bottom of that 4 hr channel and the 5,5,5 Stochastics is turning from its oversold condition.

It could drop even more to hit a strong demand level, and if it does, I will adjust my entry price accordingly. What could indicate a further drop? On the 4 hr chart the 21,5,5 Stochastics shows more room to fall - I don't rely on that indicator for the 4 hr chart but I do respect it. This means GBPUSD could be in a little pullback on it's way down further to the 1.6006 range.

That is why I have my pending buy order so much higher than where it is currently trading, so it will be a genuine reversal if it happens.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour, 10-8 gbpusd.gif Size: 47 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour, 10-8 gbpusd.gif Size: 40 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #224
  • Oct 9, 2012 1:16am Oct 9, 2012 1:16am
On the current pending trade of GBPUSD I have changed the exit to .61750 which is today's Resistance 3 level of the FiboPiv indicator.

It also is the first level of Supply from the Demand level...pretty cool. The 5,5,5 Stochastics (on the 4 hr chart) is just turning upwards from it's oversold condition.

Only problem I see is the channels are not in harmony. Daily is bullish and 4 hr is bearish. Since this is bouncing off the bottom of the 4 hr chart I am okay with the trade.

Here's the chart and new exit...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hour, 10-8 gbpusd...b.gif Size: 49 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #225
  • Oct 9, 2012 3:11am Oct 9, 2012 3:11am
Okay so GBPUSD never materialized and a better trade came along...

EURAUD


pending Buy Stop


Entry = 1.27025

Exit = 1.27925

4 hr chart shows both channel bullish and price is/should be coming off the 4 hr channel. My pending order has to happen because I can't keep my eyeballs open...time to crash!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour, 10-8 euraud.gif Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour, 10-8 eurusd.gif Size: 37 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #226
  • Oct 15, 2012 1:34am Oct 15, 2012 1:34am
In the FOREX arena there is a very fine line between complete failure and massive success. One is very, very frustrating and the other is all business.

That being said, the last 7 to 10 days have been the darkest period of my little forex career. I have found the key to failure and the key to complete success.

There are only two crucial keys to success. The first, you must find a winning system or method. Be careful about searching for a system because there are about 5 TRILLION different ones and this is where the confusion stems from.

The second, you must become closed minded. If you do not do that second part about becoming closed minded, you will do what I did and deviate from the successful method. It initially starts by experimenting with your specific method and then evolving to some stupid crap method which then leads to down right confusion culminating in a depreciating/blown account.

So I guess from now on, ocd stands for one closedminded dude.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #227
  • Oct 15, 2012 1:46am Oct 15, 2012 1:46am
From here on, I will be showing three charts: the Daily, 4 hr and 1 hr for entry.

Daily will show general trend and looking for matching 5,5,5 and 21,5,5 Stochastics, doing the same thing ideally. If both are over bought/sold at the same time...bingo! If not, we look at the 5,5,5 as primary. I will be using another indicator only on the Daily chart call the BB_MACD_CCT to assist visually with the trend...I really don't need it but it looks cool.

4 hour charts need to match the Stochastics on the Daily chart. 1 hr chart needs to match the 4 hr chart.

Now sometimes you can easily see what's going on even though the charts aren't lined up yet. For example, let's say the 5,5,5 Stochastics is getting ready to plummet on the Daily chart. The 4 hr chart shows something a little different like it is heading north. What is really happening is the 4 hr is rushing to line up with the Daily chart...it will be overbought soon.

So, in that case, I will be putting a pending Sell Stop order in knowing it will be tanking soon, probably after I go to bed.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #228
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:08am Oct 15, 2012 2:08am
First chart will be the Daily chart...notice the 5,5,5 Stochastics is overbought and primed to tank.

Second chart doesn't match up yet but it is heading to an overbought condition, probably after I go to bed.

The Daily trend has been down and experiencing a pullback...the 4 hr trend has been down and experiencing a pullback. It will tank soon and very hard if I am correct in my assessment....we will see sometime tomorrow.

Pending Sell Stop order

Currency: AUDNZD

Entry = 1.25325 with a lot size of .02

Exit = 1.24325
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily, 10-14 audnzd.gif Size: 34 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour, 10-14 audnzd.gif Size: 41 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #229
  • Oct 15, 2012 2:11am Oct 15, 2012 2:11am
here is the 1 hr chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hour, 10-14 audnzd.gif Size: 43 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #230
  • Oct 16, 2012 9:12am Oct 16, 2012 9:12am
Getting my butt kicked on this trade for now. And I see why. I am bucking the trend. It looks like I was getting in on the reversal according to the Daily charts 5,5,5 Stochastics.

After it started going up I looked into what was going on. The channels from the 4 hr and Daily say it is in a downtrend but...

the 5,5,5 and 21,5,5 Stochastics from the WEEKLY show a monster bullish move in the making. I need to exit at a low point sometime soon.

Here's a weekly chart, notice the Stochastics reversing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly, 10-16 audnzd.gif Size: 40 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #231
  • Oct 30, 2012 11:38am Oct 30, 2012 11:38am
bro it looks like you are strugggling to go past the $100 mark and maintain the lead, im still a fan though, just keep up the good work bro, 1 step at a time, no rush
I am what Many Dream to be but only a few can achieve, im a part of the 1%
  • #232
  • Nov 2, 2012 1:26am Nov 2, 2012 1:26am
Hey ocd

Go back and read this Journal from the start and you may see the points in time where your mind set shifted from the original plan.
Time hides Nothing
  • #233
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:34am Dec 12, 2012 12:34am
Ever realize you drank entirely too much and then, throughout the day, you begin to remember images of things done? Did I really put that lamp shade on my head and dance with the bosses wife? I did not blow chunks on your front porch...did I?

Well, I'm back and I realize why I went off the deep end. It feels like an embarrassing bad drunk experience.

I just could not understand why one of my Stochastics would show overbought and the other (on the same 4 hour chart) would show oversold. That is specifically what sent me over the edge...and then only to doubt my entire way of trading.

Short answer to my question? A trend was happening (continuing) and a pullback (during the trend) was happening - perfect time to enter!
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #234
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:41am Dec 12, 2012 12:41am
One more thing you guys might find interesting.

I met one of those guys we read about who got busted for a Ponzi scheme. I won't get into how I met him but he is in prison for it. I asked some questions about his personal trading style and the responses were amazing.

This guy turned $25,000 into $3.9 million in one day on one trade. Stupid simple way he did it too.

How did he/do you fail? You stop looking at the diamond and focus on the little faults and get carried away.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #235
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:48am Dec 12, 2012 12:48am
Quoting ocd
One more thing you guys might find interesting.

I met one of those guys we read about who got busted for a Ponzi scheme. I won't get into how I met him but he is in prison for it. I asked some questions about his personal trading style and the responses were amazing.

This guy turned $25,000 into $3.9 million in one day on one trade. Stupid simple way he did it too.

How did he/do you fail? You stop looking at the diamond and focus on the little faults and get carried away.

how can it possible turn $25.00 ti $3.9 million ... with ponzi scheme ? so it a money game programs ??
  • #236
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:07am Dec 12, 2012 1:07am
My little light bulb had gone on about a week before I met the guy in prison but he added some key info.

In the chart below, this is how to determine the trend. Nothing's perfect, one of those "pencil's have erasers for a reason" kind of things but this method is flat out simple. And that's what I need.

Trend is determined by the WEEKLY chart. Draw a diagonal line for the overall trend and add Stochastics with settings of 5,3,3.

In a downward trend, get ready to short when the Stochastics are overbought and turning/turned over. Reverse for going long.

This is only for trend. Take action based on Daily or 4 hour chart (personal preference).

From the chart below I think you can guess my personal bias...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly, 12-10.gif Size: 36 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #237
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:17am Dec 12, 2012 1:17am
This is my kind of journal...very realistic. I'm in the same situation as you...well I will be one day. Right now I'm demo trading but when I do start live trading it will be with a small amount of money like you.

I'm very interested in seeing how you do. I want to wish you much success.
  • #238
  • Dec 12, 2012 1:48am Dec 12, 2012 1:48am
Quoting Donatello
This is my kind of journal...very realistic. I'm in the same situation as you...well I will be one day. Right now I'm demo trading but when I do start live trading it will be with a small amount of money like you.

I'm very interested in seeing how you do. I want to wish you much success.

Thank you very much. Self-taught trading is both one of the most rewarding and the most frustrating accomplishments in my business life. These last two months have been borderline psychotic in my obsession to really figure it out to the point of being reliable and consistent.

Nothings perfect but now I should be able to prove it can be done...starting with very, very little capital.
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #239
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:08am Dec 12, 2012 2:08am
Okay, now here's the 4 hr and 1 hr charts. Indicators and settings:

1. Fibonacci's

2. Stochastics (5,3,3 and 21,3,3)

3. RSI (14)


I was told by our friend in prison that the strongest moves come when the RSI reaches over bought/sold conditions starting with the highest timeframes and working down. It's funny because even when the Stochastics scream over bought the RSI doesn't always follow. But when they do, he's correct.

I was torn whether the price would go to 1.30000 (dark blue line) or 1.30250 (turquoise line) and reverse. The vertical turquoise line is where I put the order in and I settled for 1.30000 as my entry with a Sell Limit order. I had to go to work so I just put the order in pressed on.

You will notice that the 1 hour chart shows the RSI with an overbought condition...time will tell if that was the perfect time to short. I still think the price goes up to 1.30250 area so the 4 hr RSI can get to an overbought condition.

So, short entry at 1.30000 and Exit is at 1.29000
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr, 12-11.gif Size: 36 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1hr, 12-11.gif Size: 38 KB
Everything easy was hard at first
  • #240
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:22pm Dec 12, 2012 2:22pm
Oops! Looks like I was a little early getting in. My short trade was stopped out...my impatience cost me $9.

RSI on the 4hr is now over bought. Will it wait until the Daily chart shows the RSI as over bought before it tanks? I don't know so I placed a Sell Stop at 1.30500 just in case.

Definitely went higher than I anticipated.
Everything easy was hard at first
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