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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,261
  • Dec 11, 2012 10:40am Dec 11, 2012 10:40am
Aiyah friend, like that more fun mah..
you are the Captain pirate (the old bird - meaning very experience lah not old hor), we ( or just me) the green bird pirate (no experience and not too young)....heee.

and my $$$ in POW...
nevermind as long as I continue to work hard, to be patient, to gain more knowledge, to see more charts and... $$$ will come back to me slowly..

Thanks friend again for the encouragement !!
James.


Quoting fti
ai ya james, just friends la.
Capt is commisioned operational men.
I am old fart already la.

Ya bias is bias. Not use it for decision making.
Only for aggression or non.

Always yield to trend winds.

"keeping in mind"

allow mind empty.
its start of another mode.
stay on form. stay observant and focused.
Let market tell you what they doing.
and LISTEN.
Then find the sweet spot , give them hell.
immune to old wound.
its all nothing, only some money temporarily in POW camp.


regards
  • #37,262
  • Edited 11:32am Dec 11, 2012 10:51am | Edited 11:32am
Quoting neoshg
Aiyah friend, like that more fun mah..
you are the Captain pirate (the old bird - meaning very experience lah not old hor), we ( or just me) the green bird pirate (no experience and not too young)....heee.

and my $$$ in POW...
nevermind as long as I continue to work hard, to be patient, to gain more knowledge, to see more charts and... $$$ will come back to me slowly..

Thanks friend again for the encouragement !!
James.
remember hor greenhorn,
never ever allow 50 % of your forces in POW camps, then you nearly finished.
30% is red flag already.

and this is not in considersion of gearing.(leverage0
the higher your gearing , the greater the danger of getting splashed.

The gradient of that risk is not linear is exponantial.

regards

since you in demo .
experiment this.
change skew not by numerical risk.
change it by gearing risk ratios.

is the same effects.

in simple words.
what it means is that if your sigma risk doubles.
your risk is not doubled.
is quatripled and compounded over the tenure that you in ops.
so be careful with the skewing. Is very sharp sword, and does wonders on the mind.
can kill book hor. so no cut yourself. hack them instead.

in demo mode you can try.
is ok gets killed
then you get the real feel of it sharpness.
in real life it has 2 effects.
is wonderful if you on wind.
is hell on the mind if you not.

also try the experiment i suggested for Dr.
you need also learn how get on wind feel.

ok my resting time.
you put pillow high high and think.

goodnite all.

regards

oh just in case ,
remember , watch kingdoms and how they do balancing act hor.
there is always a lead, and follower and decoy.
you must learn fig out which is who.
this you no need bother when economic figs releases.
during that times the big bands playiing.
so every one will be dancing to same tune.
  • #37,263
  • Dec 11, 2012 11:33am Dec 11, 2012 11:33am
noted with thanks.
risk is on the base amount and not the leveraged.

will try as suggested.

Thanks and take care
James.

Quoting fti
remember hor greenhorn,
never ever allow 50 % of your forces in POW camps, then you nearly finished.
30% is red flag already.

and this is not in considersion of gearing.(leverage0
the higher your gearing , the greater the danger of getting splashed.

The gradient of that risk is not linear is exponantial.

regards

since you in demo .
experiment this.
change skew not by numerical risk.
change it by gearing risk ratios.

is the same effects.

in simple words.
what it means is that if your sigma risk doubles.
your risk is not doubled.
is quatripled...
  • #37,264
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:25pm Dec 11, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting drzakir123
hi,fti and all.thinking over what happening,i feel like i am very rigid.once i makeup my mind,its very hard for me to shed the bias.if i am bull,i am bull very consistently and if i am bear i am bear very consistently,the reason is i dont want to be a pig.my question is how to be nimble or flexible?how to know once bias is wrong,at what point,we say we r wrong? yes i understand we use scout to get the feel but its very difficult to sacrifice if the scout is too deep in the water.probably i think need more and more practice and develop my intuition...
@Fti, thanks again for your efforts to guide and help out when you can.

After months of studying the thread I think I can contribute a little.

@Doc, IMHO, your best bet would be to take trades only at cluster levels and when the MO changes or when under water, look at the bigger picture and plan a rescue on level 2. If level 2 fails, look further at the bigger picture and enter on level 3. If level 3 fails, surrender to fight another time. So far so good, I haven't gone beyond level 2 and all have been successful (I don't attack, I only turn rescue into attack). I'm still waiting to see the day the 3rd level would fail, then there should be no thinking, just shoot to kill (damage control). Preservation of capital is better than a blown account, you can make it back.

For me, when in rescue mode I switch TF and mark the terrain and allow it to bleed to that level. Before that I must have calculated the distance between my scout and my planned rescue level - as the general of my army this information will help me in deciding my next amount of troops to send out on the mission. For instance, If you have 20 troops in squad (of course this 20 should be sub-divided as risk threshold permits), 20 can be various combinations, it can be 1+6+13; 1+5+14; 3+7+10 e.t.c (just an example)... From my understanding of the teachings, a successful rescue operation all depends on the distance away from scout (flexibility), not forgetting the terrain and that it has to be swift and you must take your enemy unaware. This is why I am not rigid with any sequence.
  • #37,265
  • Dec 11, 2012 5:03pm Dec 11, 2012 5:03pm
Quoting wh1zz0
@Fti, thanks again for your efforts to guide and help out when you can.

After months of studying the thread I think I can contribute a little.

@Doc, IMHO, your best bet would be to take trades only at cluster levels and when the MO changes or when under water, look at the bigger picture and plan a rescue on level 2. If level 2 fails, look further at the bigger picture and enter on level 3. If level 3 fails, surrender to fight another time. So far so good, I haven't gone beyond level 2 and all have been successful (I don't attack, I only turn...
Imho.......

Using the fib spiral for positioning has some very interesting built in phenomena relating to the distance of entries and their average, there's some good discussion in the thread regarding this if one wants to search. As a rule of thumb when you increase in a fib progression it pulls your average for the position into a 1/3 retracement rescue measured from the entry points. With that knowledge measuring against the actual distances of the charts price patterns (where you entered in relation to how far price actually traveled), tells you what level troops to employ for rescue....... the spiral does not necessarily have to be in a strict progression, levels can be skipped, but you need a better understanding of how that effects the average, your next level if necessary and total available resources...... the fib spiral is like a calculator.

regards
  • #37,266
  • Dec 12, 2012 12:05am Dec 12, 2012 12:05am
Quoting auxesis
Imho.......

Using the fib spiral for positioning has some very interesting built in phenomena relating to the distance of entries and their average, there's some good discussion in the thread regarding this if one wants to search. As a rule of thumb when you increase in a fib progression it pulls your average for the position into a 1/3 retracement rescue measured from the entry points. With that knowledge measuring against the actual distances of the charts price patterns (where you entered in relation to how far price actually traveled), tells...
Yeah I understand this, which is what I was trying to point out.
  • #37,267
  • Edited 1:46am Dec 12, 2012 12:25am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting wh1zz0
@Fti, thanks again for your efforts to guide and help out when you can.

After months of studying the thread I think I can contribute a little.

@Doc, IMHO, your best bet would be to take trades only at cluster levels and when the MO changes or when under water, look at the bigger picture and plan a rescue on level 2. If level 2 fails, look further at the bigger picture and enter on level 3. If level 3 fails, surrender to fight another time. So far so good, I haven't gone beyond level 2 and all have been successful (I don't attack, I only turn...
hi wh1z,

yes yes yes,
i see you understood the MO and tools that can be used survive in the battleground.
Yes you have patience and timing,

well done.
yes you have technique,
yes you have money management and flexibility adjust.


you and aux and many friends here, are serious about your learning.
i am glad.
you who can see the basics, will know where to return to to find your way again, in case of disorientation.
And for them i gladly pin the tenderfoot badge on.
This was the point where leghsww stopped learning.

OK now on to the serious stuff.
One knows, that with a sharp MO one can walk into battle grounds.
Just like, any commission pilot can take his aircraft burn the airspace.
When in a dogfight, there many more factors, which is why the thread is so dang long.
The basics takes about a week to understand and to know.
May take few months to be chewed and internalised.
But what is the bifference between the pilot that comes back alive and the one that comes back rescued by the retrieval system is
proficiency.
One knows that once one gets the tenderfoot, one is investitured into the brotherhood of scouts.
But thats only the begining of a lifelong journey.
is only the begining of the proficiency quest. The beginings of the polishing of a rough diamond into the valuable stone that it is.

Now that your journey begins.
You need to deal with a more inportant factor in the equation of sucessful trading.
The YOU factor, the mindset and the means hold to the mindset.
In the long journey of this thread, that is contained in here and that of the sub thread where i accomadated Dutchangel and mamood invitation, is the read of that journey. Dealing with the how to mold the Inner stabilty, the dealing with personal scorpions............etc etc. You see we are all very the same, but also very different. Dealing with YOU, can take many shapes and twists,many on thread had contributed themselves be the subject for the issues to be studied. Thank You to them all.

YOU see, no one can see themselves while they operating. Analysing oneself is akeen to doctors diagnosing themselves. You can probabbly get clearer explaintion from Dr.Only outside eyes can see things like weaknesses and strengths of any individual.
Mostly we all believe we are the most important thing happened to earth, but that itself is a deception. That deception can project one to very dark corners if one was operating alone. No friends to warn us, no one to highlight the err to us.In professional environments, there are mant stuff help the dealers along. One thing i realised was when a dealer withdraws into itself, the downhill begins. For traders sit trade alone , i suspect the astrays will be worst.

I hope you begin understand.
And i am sure if you continue the learning curve, you should get there.
Many here are in various points in that learning curve.
Is good if one help another along, then all is jettisoned to new heights.

regards

ADD.
The internet and easy communications had facilitated this possibility happen.
So we can have many friends helping each other along.
But i must warn, is also open ground for abuse.
So you need be mindful of the hidden agendas and the shadowless knifes that may infultrate the circle.
Is ok be friends, just not be dependant of personal. Keeping friendship on professional protocol is best.

if you learned nothing else here, learn this well.

there is a big difference form those who knows and those who can.
the problems gets worst for those who think they know. Then the deception become ultimate.
those who can, needs constantly be on the ball.practise practise inprovements , practise. otherwise they slide into the grouping of those who knows.

About teachers.
---------------
All in their own way contributes to teaching.
Be it what can be done or what is dangerous to do.
So all are teachers and all are understudies.
mostly we are friends.
  • #37,268
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:00am Dec 12, 2012 2:00am
Inserted Video
  • #37,269
  • Dec 12, 2012 2:35am Dec 12, 2012 2:35am
Quoting fti
hi wh1z,

yes yes yes,
i see you understood the MO and tools that can be used survive in the battleground.
Yes you have patience and timing,

well done.
yes you have technique,
yes you have money management and flexibility adjust.


you and aux and many friends here, are serious about your learning.
i am glad.
you who can see the basics, will know where to return to to find your way again, in case of disorientation.
And for them i gladly pin the tenderfoot badge on.
This was the point where leghsww stopped learning.

OK...

... Yes you speak the truth... It is very easy for one to backtrack or go 'astray' when he thinks he has transformed into superman or has become invisible. Thanks for the heads up..

Regards
  • #37,270
  • Dec 12, 2012 4:57am Dec 12, 2012 4:57am
Quoting fti
if you learned nothing else here, learn this well.

there is a big difference form those who knows and those who can.
the problems gets worst for those who think they know. Then the deception become ultimate.
those who can, needs constantly be on the ball.practise practise inprovements , practise. otherwise they slide into the grouping of those who knows.

very true
  • #37,271
  • Dec 12, 2012 6:42am Dec 12, 2012 6:42am
here a nice joke about engineer,physicist,and a economist.they find themselves shipwrecked on a desert island with nothing to eat but a sealed can of beans.how to get at them? The engineer proposes breaking the can open with a rock.the physicist suggests heating the can in sun,until it bursts.The economist's approach:''First,assume we have a can opener.....'' .
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,272
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:09am Dec 12, 2012 7:09am
Quoting fti
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIM_5uRKavQ
thanks. That really puts winning and losing at forex in perspective. I think I will get breakfast and give my mom a call.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #37,273
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:28am Dec 12, 2012 7:28am
Quoting drzakir123
here a nice joke about engineer,physicist,and a economist.they find themselves shipwrecked on a desert island with nothing to eat but a sealed can of beans.how to get at them? The engineer proposes breaking the can open with a rock.the physicist suggests heating the can in sun,until it bursts.The economist's approach:''First,assume we have a can opener.....'' .

best medicine you prescribes, laughter.


regards
  • #37,274
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:32am Dec 12, 2012 7:32am
Quoting AaronWard
thanks. That really puts winning and losing at forex in perspective. I think I will get breakfast and give my mom a call.
hehehe, ok good mind.

mom's a fighter pilot??
ok maybe she's from top gun?
ok ok,beats me, can't fig it out.
i wait for you give me a clue.

regards
  • #37,275
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:35am Dec 12, 2012 7:35am
Quoting fti

best medicine you prescribes, laughter.


regards
ok fti,i have to go now,all my beauties waiting for me at clinic will see u all before fomc results
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,276
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:35am Dec 12, 2012 7:35am
Quoting fti
hehehe, ok good mind.

mom's a fighter pilot??
ok maybe she's from top gun?
ok ok,beats me, can't fig it out.
i wait for you give me a clue.

regards
Mom's 81 and can use a bit of human contact. Who knows how long any of us have.
Kill the ego, or it will kill the mission.
  • #37,277
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:37am Dec 12, 2012 7:37am
Quoting drzakir123
ok fti,i have to go now,all my beauties waiting for me at clinic will see u all before fomc results
oh ok doc.
have a good one.
Is beauti pagent engagement day huh?
stay cool, and no be naughty.

regards
  • #37,278
  • Dec 12, 2012 7:39am Dec 12, 2012 7:39am
Quoting AaronWard
Mom's 81 and can use a bit of human contact. Who knows how long any of us have.
ok ok this one i know the answer to.

God.

Lucky me.

regards
  • #37,279
  • Edited 8:42am Dec 12, 2012 7:55am | Edited 8:42am
i trying see if this is tops.
fomc around so this will mostly be only entertainment value.
me, always naughty.
if you not nimble , try not be behind me. can get elbowed.
if i suddenly turn hor.

if you too far in front,
i may bail out if sense heat.
so can be left alone holding on to your joystick hor.

ya ya i know , naughty me.
couldn't find the clip on spitfires.
so enjoy this instead.
Men of honour. Ultimate Bravery.
sometimes scares me pee in my pants.
Reason why i show this is so that you know what NOT to do with trades.hor.
i sometimes worry about the amount of over trading that goes on.
manage over leverage, please.



Inserted Video
  • #37,280
  • Edited 9:41am Dec 12, 2012 8:52am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting auxesis
Imho.......

Using the fib spiral for positioning has some very interesting built in phenomena relating to the distance of entries and their average, there's some good discussion in the thread regarding this if one wants to search. As a rule of thumb when you increase in a fib progression it pulls your average for the position into a 1/3 retracement rescue measured from the entry points. With that knowledge measuring against the actual distances of the charts price patterns (where you entered in relation to how far price actually traveled), tells...

i just saw your avatar.
ai ya smoking.
ai ya.
is that jack nickleless?
ai ya this euro wild,
is hard get to her 6 o'clock.
no clean shot.
abandoning sortie and going to bed.

goodnite


regards
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