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Silent Service Method

  • #14,941
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:20am Dec 8, 2012 8:20am
I have had an eye on this one for a little while. You guys probably know it from the Broker Review section, but they are publicly traded now. Sorry for the lack of bars, but there just aren't as many because this IPO'd last year maybe...


Weekly for FXCM
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Fundamentals/Daily Chart
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I like trades where the chart & fundamentals seem to align. For those who subscribe to Barron's -- they had a piece on these guys a couple weeks ago.
  • #14,942
  • Dec 8, 2012 8:33am Dec 8, 2012 8:33am
Quoting InfinitySL
I have had an eye on this one for a little while. You guys probably know it from the Broker Review section, but they are publicly traded now. Sorry for the lack of bars, but there just aren't as many because this IPO'd last year maybe...


Weekly for FXCM
Attachment


Fundamentals/Daily Chart
Attachment

I like trades where the chart & fundamentals seem to align. For those who subscribe to Barron's -- they had a piece on these guys a couple weeks ago.
Well, considering their spreads I'm sure they make money... especially now that the US market is seeing competition decline...
  • #14,943
  • Dec 8, 2012 4:06pm Dec 8, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting clockwork71
I currently see two possibilities:

We fall - and this would be with the longer-term trend, but I would give it a bit of room. I am looking to short it on a daily close below the 0.9875 level. However, if we manage to get over the 1.0050 level - say if the US goes over the cliff as it were - then this pair will take off. Until then, I am ignoring it......
CW
Friday didn't close below 0.9875, but 0.9884. However, I think I would go short -- the PA broke 0.9875, retested 0.9900, then came down again. The entry point would be the second previous bar low (engulfing negative bar).

What do you think? Do you the PA is going to make a friction this area and then go up? This area is quite hard to make a decision to me... probably better stay away?

Thank you!
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  • #14,944
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:15pm Dec 8, 2012 5:15pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I have had an eye on this one for a little while. You guys probably know it from the Broker Review section, but they are publicly traded now. Sorry for the lack of bars, but there just aren't as many because this IPO'd last year maybe...


Weekly for FXCM
Attachment


Fundamentals/Daily Chart
Attachment

I like trades where the chart & fundamentals seem to align. For those who subscribe to Barron's -- they had a piece on these guys a couple weeks ago.
I would have to think that GFT closing down retail accounts in the USA and Japan doesn't exactly hurt FXCM either....
  • #14,945
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:18pm Dec 8, 2012 5:18pm
Quoting Forexgogo
What do you think? Do you the PA is going to make a friction this area and then go up? This area is quite hard to make a decision to me... probably better stay away?

Thank you!
The highlighted area above is the best advice I can give you. However, I think the breaking of another 10 pips or lower here could send this pair much lower.
  • #14,946
  • Dec 8, 2012 5:42pm Dec 8, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
The highlighted area above is the best advice I can give you. However, I think the breaking of another 10 pips or lower here could send this pair much lower.
CW

Thank you very much for your advice! I will wait for a 4h bar close below 0.9875 , then, look for an entry
  • #14,947
  • Dec 9, 2012 7:36am Dec 9, 2012 7:36am
Quoting Forexgogo
CW

Thank you very much for your advice! I will wait for a 4h bar close below 0.9875 , then, look for an entry
As a general rule, it is always safer to wait for a candle to close......
  • #14,948
  • Dec 9, 2012 7:41am Dec 9, 2012 7:41am
I think we are going to see a "risk on" week ahead based upon several pairs. However, the most important chart for me this week is gold....

I love the fact that the hammer on the weekly chart is just above the 52 week moving average. (I used 52 on the weekly as a "1 year average" obviously....)
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  • #14,949
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:10pm Dec 9, 2012 5:10pm
what do you guys think about NZD/JPY at the 69.000 level http://screencast.com/t/VcfoYv4bsf8
  • #14,950
  • Dec 9, 2012 7:41pm Dec 9, 2012 7:41pm
Quoting TheBodyguard
what do you guys think about NZD/JPY at the 69.000 level http://screencast.com/t/VcfoYv4bsf8
I say Short it with good price action (counter trend).....others will say wait for price to get above and hold then buy a continuation (with trend).....All that really matters is what do YOU want to do?
  • #14,951
  • Dec 9, 2012 8:10pm Dec 9, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting mypipbull
I say Short it with good price action (counter trend).....others will say wait for price to get above and hold then buy a continuation (with trend).....All that really matters is what do YOU want to do?
I would go even further and say do whatever it tells you - not what you want to do. M.P.B. just gave you the parameters going forward - let it tell you what to do on a daily close or something.....
  • #14,952
  • Dec 9, 2012 8:27pm Dec 9, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting mypipbull
I say Short it with good price action (counter trend).....others will say wait for price to get above and hold then buy a continuation (with trend).....All that really matters is what do YOU want to do?
I've been short since Friday @ 68.767 . Was just wondering what a different pair of eyes might see.
  • #14,953
  • Dec 9, 2012 8:42pm Dec 9, 2012 8:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
I would go even further and say do whatever it tells you - not what you want to do. M.P.B. just gave you the parameters going forward - let it tell you what to do on a daily close or something.....
The 50% Fib lining up with the very round 69.000 & the fact that price hasn't been above that level since 2008. It all tells me it's a great opportunity for a short.
  • #14,954
  • Dec 9, 2012 8:52pm Dec 9, 2012 8:52pm
Quoting TheBodyguard
The 50% Fib lining up with the very round 69.000 & the fact that price hasn't been above that level since 2008. It all tells me it's a great opportunity for a short.
Well the thing about a trade like this - and keep in mind I am not actually looking at a chart presently - is that you are at a massive "decision point." It is here that you will have to decide on which way to go. Because of this, you can short it.....using your logic. However, there is always the chance that you are wrong.

The beauty of this is that you are risking a little bit of money to make a lot. This is because if you get stopped out - you know something major has happened. Because of this, you can only assume that the pair is going much, much higher over the long run if the level does get overcome....
  • #14,955
  • Dec 9, 2012 9:35pm Dec 9, 2012 9:35pm
Quoting clockwork71
The beauty of this is that you are risking a little bit of money to make a lot. This is because if you get stopped out - you know something major has happened. Because of this, you can only assume that the pair is going much, much higher over the long run if the level does get overcome....
Perfectly articulated
  • #14,956
  • Dec 9, 2012 10:43pm Dec 9, 2012 10:43pm
Off topic for a moment.

As much as it pains me to say it...........I am currently short Manny Pacquiao

Trend followers will see what I mean....

May 2010 - Elected to congress in Phillipines
Nov 2010 - Win by Unanimous Decision (nice)
May 2011 - Win by Unanimous Decision (great)
Nov 2011 - Win by Majority Decision (ohh)
Jun 2012 - Loss by Split Decision (damn)
Dec 2012 - Loss by Knockout (f#$k)

Proof that no matter how tough you are politics can spoil everything.......food for thought
  • #14,957
  • Dec 10, 2012 12:11am Dec 10, 2012 12:11am
Quoting mypipbull
Off topic for a moment.

As much as it pains me to say it...........I am currently short Manny Pacquiao

Trend followers will see what I mean....

May 2010 - Elected to congress in Phillipines
Nov 2010 - Win by Unanimous Decision (nice)
May 2011 - Win by Unanimous Decision (great)
Nov 2011 - Win by Majority Decision (ohh)
Jun 2012 - Loss by Split Decision (damn)
Dec 2012 - Loss by Knockout (f#$k)

Proof that no matter how tough you are politics can spoil everything.......food for thought
He is something like what???? 34 now? He's getting towards the end I believe.......Here in the States, he is probably the one boxer Americans know of. Boxing has been dying for a while. Its mainly MMA these days it seems.
  • #14,958
  • Dec 10, 2012 8:12am Dec 10, 2012 8:12am
Quoting clockwork71
As a general rule, it is always safer to wait for a candle to close......
CW
Now I think I better look for a long entry @ 0.985ish or 0.980ish, or even 0.975ish. I just realized a big congestion area (yellow box) in which I should avoid taking positions.

Do you think I'm on the right track??
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  • #14,959
  • Dec 10, 2012 9:10am Dec 10, 2012 9:10am
Quoting Forexgogo
CW
Now I think I better look for a long entry @ 0.985ish or 0.980ish, or even 0.975ish. I just realized a big congestion area (yellow box) in which I should avoid taking positions.

Do you think I'm on the right track??
Possibly. But to be honest, I think this pair is a bit too messy at the moment. I haven't taken a trade in the USD/CAD for a while now. Look around, there will be better set ups out there. Don't be afraid to look at less well-known pairs either.....that is a mistake that a lot of new traders make.
  • #14,960
  • Dec 10, 2012 9:13am Dec 10, 2012 9:13am
Quoting clockwork71
Possibly. But to be honest, I think this pair is a bit too messy at the moment. I haven't taken a trade in the USD/CAD for a while now. Look around, there will be better set ups out there. Don't be afraid to look at less well-known pairs either.....that is a mistake that a lot of new traders make.
CW
Thank you for your comment! OK I will look around to find better set-ups.
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