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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #16,861
  • Dec 9, 2012 11:59am Dec 9, 2012 11:59am
Quoting aryary
...Gibril,

How are you? How’s trading?

I’ve been doing my back testing work as usual over the last couple of weeks and have come across few issues.

I have been trying to evaluate your trading style in terms of entries and exits. As we all know you are able to extract almost the maximum from the overall move. Furthermore, your ability to always pick the right pairs for the extended move is something special.

Having looked at the charts, I’ve made some pointers. Can you please explain to me and others why the charts are inconsistent?

(single...
Hi ya Aryary, Roman..

As yourselves I would appreciate some answers to your queries as well as I am truly impressed at how you could learn so much so quick and have such perfect trades most times....unless of course you are only showing the winners..
If that is the case could you please explain the points that Aryary is showing on the charts as I am very baffled by a lot of these chart examples posted here..

Cheers,
Adrian
  • #16,862
  • Dec 9, 2012 12:50pm Dec 9, 2012 12:50pm
Quoting aryary
...Gibril,

How are you? How’s trading?

I’ve been doing my back testing work as usual over the last couple of weeks and have come across few issues.

I have been trying to evaluate your trading style in terms of entries and exits. As we all know you are able to extract almost the maximum from the overall move. Furthermore, your ability to always pick the right pairs for the extended move is something special.

Having looked at the charts, I’ve made some pointers. Can you please explain to me and others why the charts are inconsistent?

(single...

Hello Aryary, thank you for your post . As a new forex (looser) trader I'd hate to waste my time learning false information. Gibril is an inspiration for me, but as of right now I have a lot of uncertainty with his trades. I know well how mt4 software works and its no brainier we can redraw our entries and exits, we even can photoshop history records... . What is the reason people redraw their trades, what is the benefit? There is should be explanation, why Gibril did it.
  • #16,863
  • Dec 9, 2012 12:52pm Dec 9, 2012 12:52pm
While I hope, brother Gibril will find an answer (I pray for it, his trades are a true inspiration for me)...

.. I'm doing some HW on Yen pairs..EJ just finished.

I see the upside potential limited for a few dozen pips at the max (good short entry,, see H4 below)..the downside seems more probable.
After a rejection from daily PPA zone, I see Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) and a retrace as deep as 50-61.8% (daily) very probable.
Same thing will likely happen with EU pair too. If you look at weekly candle, we closed above 10 EMA..but a retrace to the same line seems probable- that would be the 50% retrace Daily, 250 pips lower from Friday close - near 104.00 area. But they always exaggerate..to sattract more sellers and screw them later on..103.3000 is possible (strong support there).

Chart below..her majesty EJ.
Not a trading rec, do your own HW pls!

Ciara
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20120912EJ.jpg Size: 203 KB
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #16,864
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:16pm Dec 9, 2012 1:16pm
Quoting aryary
...Gibril,

How are you? How’s trading?

I’ve been doing my back testing work as usual over the last couple of weeks and have come across few issues.

I have been trying to evaluate your trading style in terms of entries and exits. As we all know you are able to extract almost the maximum from the overall move. Furthermore, your ability to always pick the right pairs for the extended move is something special.

[size=3][color=Red][b]Having looked at the charts, I’ve made some pointers. Can you please explain to me and others why the charts...

Hi Aryary,

appreciate your work, but please let Gibril to explain abt your doubts first. I am also confuse here abt those errors. Let's wait for Gibril's reply first.
  • #16,865
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:19pm Dec 9, 2012 1:19pm
Quoting Ciara
While I hope, brother Gibril will find an answer (I pray for it, his trades are a true inspiration for me)...

.. I'm doing some HW on Yen pairs..EJ just finished.

I see the upside potential limited for a few dozen pips at the max (good short entry,, see H4 below)..the downside seems more probable.
After a rejection from daily PPA zone, I see Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) and a retrace as deep as 50-61.8% (daily) very probable.
Same thing will likely happen with EU pair too. If you look at weekly candle, we closed above 10 EMA..but a retrace...
Nice charts bro....
  • #16,866
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:21pm Dec 9, 2012 1:21pm
Quoting lehin
Hello Aryary, thank you for your post . As a new forex (looser) trader I'd hate to waste my time learning false information. Gibril is an inspiration for me, but as of right now I have a lot of uncertainty with his trades. I know well how mt4 software works and its no brainier we can redraw our entries and exits, we even can photoshop history records... . What is the reason people redraw their trades, what is the benefit? There is should be explanation, why Gibril did it.

Hi mate,

keep on learning and reading and wait for explanation first (he will do it, im sure, ..dont kill the buffalo for a hair needed for laboratory analysis)..The Thread is an ocean of knowledge. One individual doesnt count (except of the founder, lolol - he is real, i know, and most of other guys here too, know many of them).

Brother Arjun has asked us to post our entries and exits..to avoid any doubts and to allow eagle eyes to check..so we will find out soon..it has been my wish also..I've had some doubts myself about more than one person. Time to show the cards and continue. I want to focus on trading. No time to lose on foggy things.

Ciara
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #16,867
  • Dec 9, 2012 1:58pm Dec 9, 2012 1:58pm
Quoting moneytub
Hi newbies should help each other,download attachment, then copy this into experts- indicators folder of your metatrader4. open chart, than navigator on top of terminal, choose custom indicators, drag and drop traders dinamic index onto your chart. trade well
thank's for the info moneytub got them on my chart's
  • #16,868
  • Dec 9, 2012 2:13pm Dec 9, 2012 2:13pm
Quoting Ciara
While I hope, brother Gibril will find an answer (I pray for it, his trades are a true inspiration for me)...

.. I'm doing some HW on Yen pairs..EJ just finished.

I see the upside potential limited for a few dozen pips at the max (good short entry,, see H4 below)..the downside seems more probable.
After a rejection from daily PPA zone, I see Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) and a retrace as deep as 50-61.8% (daily) very probable.
Same thing will likely happen with EU pair too. If you look at weekly candle, we closed above 10 EMA..but a retrace...
I agree I see more Down side as greater probability.I like to think in probabilities rather forecasting because forecasting develops bias.
To supplement your chart. 12345 pattern complete on h4 and could start another on down side.
Price was rejected from median line ...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.gif Size: 21 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,869
  • Dec 9, 2012 2:34pm Dec 9, 2012 2:34pm
[quote=Ciara;6276343]While I hope, brother Gibril will find an answer (I pray for it, his trades are a true inspiration for me)...

.. I'm doing some HW on Yen pairs..EJ just finished.

I see the upside potential limited for a few dozen pips at the max (good short entry,, see H4 below)..the downside seems more probable.
After a rejection from daily PPA zone, I see Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) and a retrace as deep as 50-61.8% (daily) very probable.
Same thing will likely happen with EU pair too.....
------------------------------

EU chart below..
Daily picture. Lets see if these TL mean anything..U may draw fibs too..to see retest of 50 and 61.8% and hw do these match the TL (they do)..

Ciara
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121209eu.png Size: 204 KB
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #16,870
  • Dec 9, 2012 2:44pm Dec 9, 2012 2:44pm
hi 99,

i had a look on euro last week and try to share my view...i hope this is not too late your post was over 20h ago :-(

Dec 3

Looking at the previous trading day, 30 Nov, we can see that a double top formed the daily high. as emmanuel mentioned many times before we must be careful to trade the OHLC zones. so even if we would've gotten a short setup on 3rd Dec we must watch out. Can a Lovebee tell me when it would have been safe to go for a short setup on Dec3?


at 3 Dec chart i marked an confluence area 200ema(below for short),BRN,Fib 50% and YC_if the price went below this confluence area with good EMA slope, it should be save to look for short trades. i also marked the pinbar at adr/htf resistance_but this is an expert CT trade(i pointed this out because their i see a short setup...but absolut NO-GO!!!) (always look at HTF)


Dec 4

we keep the lines from Dec 3 and see what is happening. Again, would you consider taking a long right before price reaches yH? if yes, why? if no, why not? when would it be appropriate?
we finish the day again with a double top and draw a line to mark that zone for the next day.

in attached chart the first two cycles (at htf resistance blue lines) are risky entrypoint (50ema)_i would not take these two entrypoint because of 127Fib weekly_i expected some sell around this area and with one eye at 1H/4H (three windows) i see no good trigger candle.the third cycled EP is possible but i would not have taken because of the YH resistance is not really established and this candle is not a perfect candle imho.the last EP is a good one with confluence YH,50EMA and H1 candle (tp atRN).(always look at HTF)



Dec 5

So for Dec 5, we had something special in store. I'm gonna leave this open to lovebees to answer if you like to.
What happened on Dec 5? Why were long signals a no-go for us? at least for me they were but i might be wrong.

at 5dec we hit very strong resistance...(supply zone last 3 month)



Dec 6 & Dec 7

How did Dec 5 have an impact on the next 2 days? Can someone, lovebee please, post their chart please with lines on different time frames? i'd like to learn.

at 5 Dec we hit strong supply zone and their where many seller...price fall down (freefall :-) to last week low,200ema,50ema on daily....i attached a screenshot of my daily chart(because of the lines....sometimes i mess it a alitte bit up with too many lines and zones from different tf)




i always learn alot from your posting and your advices....thank you 99!lets all learn from each other!(if something is wrong or missing(iam sure iam missing alot) i request every member to help and correct me please!)
wish all of you a good trading week

leztuh
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3dec.jpg Size: 155 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4dec.jpg Size: 133 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DAILY EU.jpg Size: 187 KB
  • #16,871
  • Dec 9, 2012 3:08pm Dec 9, 2012 3:08pm
Hello Everyone,

It is now GMT2105, EST1605 ..
market still not open yet, yet many are online and posting...
be careful all you early birds,
do not be the first mouse when you want to get the cheese,
I rather be the third mouse and go hungry for just one market session.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #16,872
  • Dec 9, 2012 3:12pm Dec 9, 2012 3:12pm
How to Show your MT4 Order History on your charts?

here is a nice tool developed by a well known FF member pips4life.

go to Platform Tech section of this forum and download the tool.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=46668



Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #16,873
  • Dec 9, 2012 4:09pm Dec 9, 2012 4:09pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
How to Show your MT4 Order History on your charts?

here is a nice tool developed by a well known FF member pips4life.

go to Platform Tech section of this forum and download the tool.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=46668


Thank you for the advise and heads up in prev. post
  • #16,874
  • Dec 9, 2012 4:53pm Dec 9, 2012 4:53pm
Hi Guys,

I am looking forward to getting back to some serious trading this week after being absent for some time now, it is probably not the greatest time of the year to start, so I guess I will need to take a lot of care with my trades.

Very interesting post Aryary, I to have spent a considerable amount of time studying Gibrils trades/posts and I was amazed by how accurate his trading was, I really look forward to Gibril coming on and clearing up the issues you raise about his trades.

Argary & Emmanuel ...., you have both posted some really great information on this thread for a while now, I have learn't so much from both of you. Keep up the great work

Take Care
ww x

Quoting aryary
...Gibril,

How are you? How’s trading?

I’ve been doing my back testing work as usual over the last couple of weeks and have come across few issues.

I have been trying to evaluate your trading style in terms of entries and exits. As we all know you are able to extract almost the maximum from the overall move. Furthermore, your ability to always pick the right pairs for the extended move is something special.

Having looked at the charts, I’ve made some pointers. Can you please explain to me and others why the charts are inconsistent?

(single...
'May God guide you on your life's journey...'
  • #16,875
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:06pm Dec 9, 2012 5:06pm
she is waiting for the right moment on AU
Probability PA reaching 50RN is good if breaks 5190 next fractal is target for reversal
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 103 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,876
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:14pm Dec 9, 2012 5:14pm
Found this threat recently, starting reading first 50, then looked at last 50, is there anything left of the original trading system and/or what are the rules that people are following?

Thanks...
  • #16,877
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:18pm Dec 9, 2012 5:18pm
[quote=Ciara;6276490]
Quoting Ciara
While I hope, brother Gibril will find an answer (I pray for it, his trades are a true inspiration for me)...

.. I'm doing some HW on Yen pairs..EJ just finished.

I see the upside potential limited for a few dozen pips at the max (good short entry,, see H4 below)..the downside seems more probable.
After a rejection from daily PPA zone, I see Head and Shoulders Pattern (H&S) and a retrace as deep as 50-61.8% (daily) very probable.
Same thing will likely happen with EU pair too.....
------------------------------

EU chart...

That said..took first 15+14 pips in EU long - entry TL, exit above RN. Trades taken on saxo platform (trades enabled two hrs prior to my MT4 trades by PS). Both positions closed by one single order (i miss that option at MT4 platform). The brown line is EMA 50..(H1-10ema).
Waiting for Japanese macro news in 15 mins..

Ciara
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121012EU.png Size: 91 KB
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #16,878
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:20pm Dec 9, 2012 5:20pm
Quoting redart007
Found this threat recently, starting reading first 50, then looked at last 50, is there anything left of the original trading system and/or what are the rules that people are following?

Thanks...
Hi
This is from 1st post
"This strategy is based purely on price action"
Last 50pages and 250 pages+ have been about price action and how that relates to EMA's, Round Numbers etc.
In my opinion nothing has changed fundamentally about the system but got better.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #16,879
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:24pm Dec 9, 2012 5:24pm
[quote=Ciara;6276777]
Quoting Ciara


That said..took first 15+14 pips in EU long - entry TL, exit above RN. Trades taken on saxo platform (trades enabled two hrs prior to my MT4 trades by PS). Both positions closed by one single order (i miss that option at MT4 platform). The brown line is EMA 50..(H1-10ema).
Waiting for Japanese macro news in 15 mins..

Ciara
It's December 12th already? Lol.

Nice trades as always man.
What is any ocean but a multitude of drops?
  • #16,880
  • Dec 9, 2012 5:41pm Dec 9, 2012 5:41pm
Hi Lovebees!

I think that generally we are focussing just a little too much on the details of the profit and loss!

While the posting of just 'winners' or of 'idealist' trades is not helpful and is actually counter-productive, so may be the focus on 'how much' or how many.

There are now many great contributors to this thread and all add something different. Many provide great insight and experience, the workload is shared, we have a great team! (Even though this post is a general statement I would have to say that even if Gibril NEVER posted a trade his contribution to this thread is unequalled for his insight, his energy, his work ethic/ output, his enthusiasm and his character) :-)

Moving forward, can I suggest that we make some posts about a potential trades AS THEY SET UP. Then we can discuss/share confluence/fibs, H/lo etc etc.

I am well aware that we do not want to just hand out trades for ppl to just follow, as Arjun has taught we MUST do it ourselves, we have THINK about it, to understand and internalise the process. If we help the butterfly from the chrysallis it will not fly!!

But at the same time the analogy can break down at some point, we are not butterflies.

I feel that we need to spend more time on the entry conditions: When is a pin rejection from the 50Ma NOT a good entry/when its close is too far for a close stop, how much weight should give to rejection of 200MA without other factors/the importance of confluence etc etc

In my own small way I have tried to flag some potential setups without hand-holding ppl right through the trade or trade decision-making. Maybe if we can post some setups and entries, and follow some trades LIVE then we will all become assured that the system works and we need have no focus on reporting winners or losers :-)

Once we have CONFIDENCE that the system DOES work (and it does) then we will be IN-THE- ZONE and not be stressed with the normal fluctuations of profit and loss and our trading will improve further. :-)

What do you all think about this? :-)


Quoting aryary
...Gibril,

How are you? How’s trading?

I’ve been doing my back testing work as usual over the last couple of weeks and have come across few issues.

I have been trying to evaluate your trading style in terms of entries and exits. As we all know you are able to extract almost the maximum from the overall move. Furthermore, your ability to always pick the right pairs for the extended move is something special.

Having looked at the charts, I’ve made some pointers. Can you please explain to me and others why the charts are inconsistent?

(single...
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