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  • #22,521
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:13am Dec 6, 2012 11:13am
Quoting aerotrade
that down move already retraced 16 H4 bars and we don t know how Asian will deal with that fact when they will join the fest . then we can consider that the pair is simply in free-fall and that in case of panic sell technical level and more generaly technical analysis rules simply don t work properly .then instead of making some prognostic the best thing is to wait the market to pull itself together

btw

I is not my prognostic

but I agree with You
  • #22,522
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:17am Dec 6, 2012 11:17am
Quote
that down move already retraced 16 H4 bars and we don t know how Asian will deal with that fact when they will join the fest . then we can consider that the pair is simply in free-fall and that in case of panic sell technical level and more generaly technical analysis rules simply don t work properly .then instead of making some prognostic the best thing is to wait the market to pull itself together

Nice point Aerotrade, lg at 2969 for retrace and support from 11/26, with sl at 2959 as trend is down and if it breaks again, could be ride down and will look to short
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #22,523
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:25am Dec 6, 2012 11:25am
guys
I am done for today
get tired
see you tomorrow
  • #22,524
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:25am Dec 6, 2012 11:25am
Quoting morob
btw

I is not my prognostic

but I agree with You
tks for posting the analysis , what i mean is if i was an institutional and i had an interest/need to buy euro i would wait the panic move to stop because in this case delaying is my interest i will just pay a particular attention on large buy order symptom that tell me that institutional buyer are entering in the dance .

grossly :

1 i let the seller panic and create a big discount for me
2 as an institutional i am not doing what i do for glory then i do not need to be the buying pioneer then i wait some sign of large buying order before to do anything
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,525
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:29am Dec 6, 2012 11:29am
like i said last week

take a look at monthly should things go bad for EU

momentum is sloping down now on monthly, coming out of over bought

135 pip daily range..
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22,526
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:32am Dec 6, 2012 11:32am
Quoting stevewalker
guys
I am done for today
get tired
see you tomorrow
See you , hope tomorrow thing will be be a bit more in the norms
even if abnormality seems to be the new norm
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,527
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:35am Dec 6, 2012 11:35am
this lack of dip buying REALLY tells you something

either its a huge fake out

or EU headed back down to 1.20 for the double bottom (and would give monthly bullish divergence)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22,528
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:39am Dec 6, 2012 11:39am
Quoting mok1one
2 Sceranrios i'm looking for today.

1H Chart (upper)
30MIN Chart (lower)
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post6267488

Still in play

WIll update the 1H chart with the channel-use post
  • #22,529
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:41am Dec 6, 2012 11:41am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
like i said last week

take a look at monthly should things go bad for EU

momentum is sloping down now on monthly, coming out of over bought

135 pip daily range..
looking last month candle Vs current can lead to 2 different interpretations

1 Hanging man = bearish
2 long down wick = bullish pressure

the truth is that candle color/signal doesn't really matter nobody can predict what will happen next week using last week newspapers headlines
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,530
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:44am Dec 6, 2012 11:44am
Quoting Lucrativ
Tons for me to learn from this .... I actually sold from the first [email protected], got our on the second red arrow, and should have sold again from the third retest of 1.3080
i think these are fractals can you help me how to get them on chart?
  • #22,531
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:47am Dec 6, 2012 11:47am
Quoting aerotrade
looking last month candle Vs current can lead to 2 different interpretations

1 Hanging man = bearish
2 long down wick = bullish pressure

the truth is that candle color/signal doesn't really matter nobody can predict what will happen next week using last week newspapers headlines
yes true could be interpreted either way

thats why i use momentum as primary confirmation


be safe everyone, just over 1% for me today
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #22,532
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:54am Dec 6, 2012 11:54am
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
this lack of dip buying REALLY tells you something

either its a huge fake out

or EU headed back down to 1.20 for the double bottom (and would give monthly bullish divergence)
a good point

i think about market makers (liquidity provider ) that have to be buyer and seller side at the same time taking spread and commission but paying the imbalance from their pocket money they will need to push the market up to not
1 book a loss and pay mkt imballance bill
2 hedge the thing and keep it for 2013 accountancy year

then a v shape retracement might be a possibility
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,533
  • Dec 6, 2012 11:56am Dec 6, 2012 11:56am
Quoting aerotrade
that down move already retraced 16 H4 bars and we don t know how Asian will deal with that fact when they will join the fest . then we can consider that the pair is simply in free-fall and that in case of panic sell technical level and more generaly technical analysis rules simply don t work properly .then instead of making some prognostic the best thing is to wait the market to pull itself together
update

now retraced 21 H4 bars (!!!!)
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,534
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:02pm Dec 6, 2012 12:02pm
So here is the example post how I use the channels and determine my entries + added a example chart how I draw the fibchannels using 5MIN Chart:

The reason I looked to short was that the price broke the 1H channel line and hanged on to the upper channels without touching the lower channel line.
Red Circle on the 1H chart with nr 1 Is the reason.
I have noticed that the price will reverse or bounce from the channel lines not in the middle or 1/3 in the channel.

Personality of the 1H channel line i have noticed : 1H channels (major) are not channels that want to have the price only half in them. If entered into channels the lower/upper channels is touched for a bounce or reverse (when broken from above downwards, then the lower line has to be touched also, not only half way in and vica-versa).

1) Took the 1NS trade because it clearly bounced from the fibchannel.
2) Took 1/2NS trade thanks to news that brought the price up a bit, but didn't make any HH or touch the upper channel line.
3) Took 1/2NS trade because of the 5MIN channel was broken

Targets were 1) 1H channels' lower line for 1/2 NS trades
The 1NS trade had no tp in the start (wanted to see how the price acts on the 1H channel line).Because it was broken quite easily i set my TP to Daily S3 and Weekly pivot.

As you can see Channel lines match on different timeframes and also with pivot levels and this is why i Chose these lines for my Targets.

Have used these channels for about 3 months now and this is what I have learned about them so far. I am pretty sure there are much more discoveries to be made about them. So if anyone notices something i engourage you all to share it with others. Thats how we learn and get more experiance.

From this kind of trade that i just showed I made 60/2 + 45/2 + 97 = 149,5 Pips NS

This post will be reffered to anyone who askes how to use these channels and where to enter and exit.

Hope this helps a bit.
Thank you
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h1.jpg Size: 67 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Exp5min.jpg Size: 80 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FIBexplanation.JPG Size: 91 KB
  • #22,535
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:08pm Dec 6, 2012 12:08pm
Quoting Mahfooz
i think these are fractals can you help me how to get them on chart?
No, i inputed using drawing tools. But Steve taught me that Fractals are in the indicators list:
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc fractals.doc   116 KB | 242 downloads
  • #22,536
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:09pm Dec 6, 2012 12:09pm
EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.



Pivot: 1.301

Our preference: Short positions below 1.301 with targets @ 1.2945 & 1.291 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.301 look for further upside with 1.304 & 1.308 as targets.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Key levels
1.308
1.304
1.301
1.29551 last
1.2945
1.291
1.288
Attached Image
  • #22,537
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:12pm Dec 6, 2012 12:12pm
US OIL WTI moving with EURUSD same down move seems correlated . seems now that it reached the bottom of a H4 channel ,that correlation might stop the EUR decline (the bad news is that it also forming a perfect HnS)
Sic Transit Gloria Mundi ~ Thus passes the glory of the world
  • #22,538
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:14pm Dec 6, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting Mahfooz
i think these are fractals can you help me how to get them on chart?
Fractals will look like this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fractals.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,539
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:17pm Dec 6, 2012 12:17pm
Quoting Lucrativ
No, i inputed using drawing tools. But Steve taught me that Fractals are in the indicators list:
can you help me put this on my chart
  • #22,540
  • Dec 6, 2012 12:18pm Dec 6, 2012 12:18pm
Quoting Lucrativ
Fractals will look like this:
yes i have them on my chart but his are different
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