Alv Trading Journal - Price Action w/ Sentiment

Sentiment Analysis

Wrap Up News:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...pbeat-us-data/
-French unemployment reach 14 years high

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-recent-gains/
-UK may lose AAA rating

Market Orders:
N/A

Upcoming News:
EU Money Supply - slightly better - 16:00

EU German HICP - slightly worse - 20:00

US New Home Sales - slightly worse - 22:00
US Beige book - 02:00

JP Retail Sales - 06:50

NZ Business Conf - 07:00

AU Private Capital Exp - worse - 07:30

CH GDP - better - 13:45

UK Nationwide HPI - worse - 14:00

Market Condition:
Gold: Down - USDX: Range - S&P: Down - DAX: Range - FTSE: Range

Current Market Condition: Neutral to Risk Averse
Expected Market Condition: Neutral

Boring market. Looks like Greek Debt deal has no effect. Or maybe we should wait until the bailout plan executed?
After a dull-start week, I'm expecting this friday will be a real mover (or, maybe tomorrow?).

Best Trade Moment:
Tomorrow is a full schedule day. A clearly better chance than today.

Sentiment Analysis

Wrap Up News:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...ate-cut-25bps/
-At last, RBA had cut rate

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...prises-market/
-Italy has narrower deficit
-again, QE will keep continue until employment show a good sign

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...nth-in-europe/
-UK debt payment will took a long time. Second crisis hit and it will be a trouble

Market Orders:
fiber: 1.3100 (barriers)

Upcoming News:
UK Construction PMI - slightly worse - 16:30

CA BoC Rate - no change - 21:00

AU GDP - same as previous - 07:30


Market Condition:
Expected Market Condition: risk averse

Best Trade Moment:
GBP after construction PMI. CAD before BoC rate. AUD after GDP.

Market Condition:
Gold: Down - USDX: Down - S&P: Up - DAX: Up - FTSE: Up

Current Market Condition: Risk appetite
Expected Market Condition: Risk averse

Sentiment Analysis

Wrap Up News:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-canada-holds/
-will german downgraded?

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...y-then-stalls/
-CN: global economy recovery is weakening

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...s-index-jumps/
-Citi: another job cut in banks

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...loyment-gains/
-Greece downgraded

Market Orders:
EURGBP: 0.8165
yen: 82.70, 83.00 (barrier)
aussie: 1.0500 (barrier), 1.2525

Upcoming News:
CH CPI - slightly worse - 15:15

UK Trade Balance - slightly worse - 16:30

EU GDP - same as previous - 17:00
EU German Factory Orders - better - 18:00

UK News - no change - 19:00
-Asset Purch Facility
-Rate Statement

EU Bid Rate - no change - 19:45

20:30
-CA Building Permits - better
-EU ECB Press Conf
-US Unemployment Claims - slightly better

CA Ivey PMI - slightly better - 22:00

AU Trade Balance - 07:30

Market Condition:
Gold: Down - USDX: Up - S&P: Range - DAX: Range - FTSE: Up

Current Market Condition: Slight risk averse
Expected Market Condition: Risk averse

Best Trade Moment:
Now maybe a good chance to trade EUR or GBP because the news may priced in from now (rate statement indicate no change). Just don't forget to take a safe action before the rate statement.

Sentiment Analysis

Wrap Up News:
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...raghi-ed-down/
-Draghi: Holding rates soften the economy. Market expecting a rate cut.

Market Orders:
yen: 83.00 (barrier)
yuppy: 108.00 (barrier)
aussie: 1.0500, 1.0525 (barrier)

Upcoming News:
EU German Industrial Prod - better - 18:00

CA News - better - 20:30
-Employment Change
-Unemployment Rate
-Labor Productivity

US News - 20:30
-NFP - worse
-Unemployment Rate - same as previous
-Average Hourly Earning - slightly better

US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - slightly worse - 21:55

JP News - slightly worse - 06:50
-Current Account
-GDP

CN News - worse - 07:00
-Money Supply -
-Trade Balance
-Import
-Export

AU Home Loans - 07:30

Market Condition:
Gold: Range - USDX: Up - S&P: Range - DAX: Range - FTSE: Range

Current Market Condition: Slightly Risk averse
Expected Market Condition: Risk averse

Barrier, barrier everywhere. Careful with this barrier because the location is on the opposite side of the sentiment.

Best Trade Moment:
After NFP, of course

Weekly view:

AUD is having a good momentum for next week vs EUR & GBP

I think I can expect a good move from AUD next week.

NZD is also good, but not as good as AUD. But worth noting tho.

Daily View:

I can't stop thinking that AUD vs USD and GBP is really good at the end of Friday. Monday should be interesting:

Daily View:

Possible re-continuation on some AUD pairs:

Daily view:

Currently nothing particularly interesting in my view. But the closes pair that can make good moves are EURAUD and GBPAUD

Weekly View:
Nothing is particularly interesting for this week. Maybe we can look out to continuation of EUR and GBP vs AUD (+NZD) around Wednesday / Thursday


Daily View:
Also nothing is interesting

Daily View:
Nothing interesting

Daily View:
Nothing interesting

Daily View:
AUDUSD and NZDUSD got interesting buy opportunity


judging from H4 view, I think there will be better price before buying those


This will be interesting

Weekly view:
I think this week will relatively be slump. Nothing much is interesting. EUR was failed to restrength and instead got weaker. From most of the pairs I think it will be going nowhere this week.

Daily view:
Also nothing is interesting either.