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  • #541
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:25pm Dec 5, 2012 9:25pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
I am off to my coffee and a shower. Be back in about an hour or so. I will post my D,4H and 1H charts then. Also one last thing, the bullish butterfly on the 30M is pretty weak
  • #542
  • Dec 5, 2012 9:43pm Dec 5, 2012 9:43pm
This looks like we're in a 5 wave up sequence with a corrective wave happening now (ABCD). If you go short just be careful to bank some profits to cover your open positions. I'm still looking for another wave up to start somewhere in the support area. Just my opinion and I could be be wrong. Also you can see we were divergent all along the last up wave inn both price and the AO and now price has started down and the AO has pulled back below the zero line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur 1hr view 6.12.12.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #543
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:26pm Dec 5, 2012 10:26pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Couldn't concur more. The first goal is to lock in pips when a trade triggers. The premise of my 30M sell is just that, from the 30M. As with the 5M and 15M the 30M needs to clear the same obstacle. If in fact it does, this leads directly into your premise as the next obstacle to clear is the 1H 200 - which is a bit stronger than the lower TF's. I would expect a bounce on the 1H 200.

I love your perspective Ozzie. Feel free to elaborate on your counts of the waves. Good stuff

Quoting ozziedave
This looks like we're in a 5 wave up sequence with a corrective wave happening now (ABCD). If you go short just be careful to bank some profits to cover your open positions. I'm still looking for another wave up to start somewhere in the support area. Just my opinion and I could be be wrong. Also you can see we were divergent all along the last up wave inn both price and the AO and now price has started down and the AO has pulled back below the zero line.
  • #544
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:28pm Dec 5, 2012 10:28pm
any1 interesed in other pair ? or just eu here ?
not euphoria follower
  • #545
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:37pm Dec 5, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting iqyu5an
any1 interesed in other pair ? or just eu here ?
selain eurusd, ane juga trading audusd gan. "paris van java" bandung nya?
Dangdut is a music of my country
  • #546
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:38pm Dec 5, 2012 10:38pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
From the broader perspective the Daily. Regardless of the breakout witnessed yesterday the daily is in a very strong uptrend. Yesterday's high fell short of a double top formation at 31255 (double top at 31385) keeping inline with the falling (slightly downward almost sideways upper trend line).

Today's candle will either confirm yesterday's fall or prove to be as much of an anomoly as the other two bearish candles in this uptrend. The 23.6 fibo is close, a bounce from this level confirms the strength of the uptrend and bulls remaining in charge (this may coincide with the 1H 200?). If 23.6 is broken, it opens to the 38.2 (29467) again a bounce would signify the Bulls presence.

In summary, the bears have a long way to go to prove they can take over.

Bias: Slightly bearish to unknown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eud.gif Size: 48 KB
  • #547
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:39pm Dec 5, 2012 10:39pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Any pair you wish. My preference is the EU. Feel free to post any pair as long as we speak the same language!

Quoting iqyu5an
any1 interesed in other pair ? or just eu here ?
  • #548
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:50pm Dec 5, 2012 10:50pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
4H: Currently sitting on S1, 23.6 fibo punched, just below the 38.2 is the S2. Price is also directly inside the mouth of the alligator. The divergence was finally respected with the AO. Upward momentum is declining and the RSI has touched the 50. To remain with a bearish outlook I would need to see the RSI push through the 50 and break below 40 on the subsequent candle.

This is creating doubt in my mind that 30M sell stop might be premature, the 30M is still riding that 200 the AO and RSI indicate a potential bounce here. Will keep sell stop in place for now as I believe it may be safe where it is. If a bounce does occur on the 30M I will try to be there to catch it.

Bias 4H: Slightly bearish but need this TF to progress a bit more
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #549
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:51pm Dec 5, 2012 10:51pm
thanks mate ... just need a confirmation first

this what i see in kiwi at the moment

Quoting 9er
Any pair you wish. My preference is the EU. Feel free to post any pair as long as we speak the same language!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lieur4.gif Size: 22 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #550
  • Edited 11:07pm Dec 5, 2012 10:53pm | Edited 11:07pm
Nunix said... she/he trade aussie also... and asked paris van java is in bandung ?

me : yes...my friend. me too, here is my aussie
Quoting NuNix
selain eurusd, ane juga trading audusd gan. "paris van java" bandung nya?
not euphoria follower
  • #551
  • Dec 5, 2012 10:58pm Dec 5, 2012 10:58pm
am keeping it in my mind . still in planning frame
Quoting iqyu5an
yap... too far ( imho )

this what i see in 4H

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...0&d=1354615844
not euphoria follower
  • #552
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:11pm Dec 5, 2012 11:11pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
The 1H - Does anyone see the cute little ABCD sub-wave? This is interesting because price is sitting on S1, which coincides with the 50.0 fibo of the C to D leg, the AO does not agree as it along with price are declining. RSI swooped in 30 and has been below 40 for a few hours now.

This time frame is FULL of drama

I don't like where the latest down fractal painted on the 1H. After touching the mouth I like the down franctal to paint within 2 to 3 candles from where it touches the mouth (see the one before it? If I were awake I would have been all over that baby!)

Another conflicting story is the alligator mouth. It is wide open indicating it's need to continue feeding (as price reverses, think of the mouth of the alligator as it reverses as the mouth closing to swallow the bear pips and turning to consume some bull pip cheerios). Right now the mouth is WIDE open.

Price is approachig the mouth as I type this, which I like because if it approaches the mouth then bounces off it, look for the down trend to continue at least to the 200 on this TF.

Bias: sideways need further development. Still comfortable with my sell stop placement though!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1h.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #553
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:30pm Dec 5, 2012 11:30pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Thanks for clarifying what Nunix said. I apologize for using the word language. What I meant by saying using the "same language" was speaking the same in terms of "style" as it applies to other pairs. Use the same "style" of trading. If you are comfortable speaking your language between each other, please feel free.

Quoting iqyu5an
Nunix said... she/he trade aussie also... and asked paris van java is in bandung ?

me : yes...my friend. me too, here is my aussie
  • #554
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:39pm Dec 5, 2012 11:39pm
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Snapshot 30M. UK is still 2.5 hours from open. As I said previously low volume has a way of killing the most perfect setups.

As price moves sideways and rides the 200 upwards it pulls price farther away from my sell stop, leaving room from a break below the 200 (in this TF) to my sell stop (getting uncomfortable).

lets see what the convergence of the 200 and the alligator mouth do
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #555
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:49pm Dec 5, 2012 11:49pm
Quoting 9er
4H: Currently sitting on S1, 23.6 fibo punched, just below the 38.2 is the S2. Price is also directly inside the mouth of the alligator. The divergence was finally respected with the AO. Upward momentum is declining and the RSI has touched the 50. To remain with a bearish outlook I would need to see the RSI push through the 50 and break below 40 on the subsequent candle.

This is creating doubt in my mind that 30M sell stop might be premature, the 30M is still riding that 200 the AO and RSI indicate a potential bounce here. Will keep sell stop...
niner,on the 4hr eur/usd, why do i see this looking just like a pullback waiting for another upward thrust with AO above zero and RSI above 50?

Also, what happens when things set up to our liking, but RSI is going opposite. Does RSI always have to be confirming the trade or can we not use it at times?

thanks,
Silat50
  • #556
  • Dec 5, 2012 11:49pm Dec 5, 2012 11:49pm
just to breakdown into m15 and "playing with golden moving average - the 200 ". i just overlay ema 200 m5 on m15. so the red line is ema 200 m5 and the yellow one is ema 200 m15 ( we have 2 moving averages from different time frame in the same window ) . they are crossing already

shortly : if she goes UP...to retest prev support ?
Quoting 9er
Snapshot 30M. UK is still 2.5 hours from open. As I said previously low volume has a way of killing the most perfect setups.

As price moves sideways and rides the 200 upwards it pulls price farther away from my sell stop, leaving room from a break below the 200 (in this TF) to my sell stop (getting uncomfortable).

lets see what the convergence of the 200 and the alligator mouth do
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lieur 5.gif Size: 21 KB
not euphoria follower
  • #557
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:27am Dec 6, 2012 1:27am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Sure we can not use it at times. However, as I said previously I need to see some progression through the 4H chart. An argument can be made for pullback or reversal. In my experience until all time frames line up and all drop below the 200 there is always speculation that this is simply a pullback, false break etc.

For me the RSI is critical though. The only TF's where I might ignore the RSI are on the 5M and 15M. The higher the TF the stronger the indicator - at least from my humble perspective anyway.

Quoting Silat50
niner,on the 4hr eur/usd, why do i see this looking just like a pullback waiting for another upward thrust with AO above zero and RSI above 50?

Also, what happens when things set up to our liking, but RSI is going opposite. Does RSI always have to be confirming the trade or can we not use it at times?

thanks,
Silat50
  • #558
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:28am Dec 6, 2012 1:28am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Can you elaborate on the crossing of the 200's? Not familiar with the EMA

Quoting iqyu5an
just to breakdown into m15 and "playing with golden moving average - the 200 ". i just overlay ema 200 m5 on m15. so the red line is ema 200 m5 and the yellow one is ema 200 m15 ( we have 2 moving averages from different time frame in the same window ) . they are crossing already

shortly : if she goes UP...to retest prev support ?
  • #559
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:30am Dec 6, 2012 1:30am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Two minutes left in this candle. A push through the 200 does not surprise me, but it occured in area that exposes my risk on the sell stop. Still cautious. I will delete previous sell stop and enter sell stop with lower risk potential
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 30m.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #560
  • Dec 6, 2012 1:32am Dec 6, 2012 1:32am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
5M double bottom off S1, would make me feel better to see a pull back here that translates to hitting the 200 on the 30M, to make me feel better about this sell stop.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5m.gif Size: 35 KB
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