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VantagePoint discussion thread

  • #541
  • May 27, 2006 8:29pm May 27, 2006 8:29pm
Andrew
I suggest that you and all VP owners sign up for the free Intermarket Analysis webinars given by Brian Talbot of Alaron. They usually have several a month and show the use of VP with various markets including a Forex pair. Brian uses SSTO 14/3/3 and MACD to confirm his trades on the daily charts based on the PTM/MA 10 day XO, talks about entry techniques, stop losses, and exit techniques, and I have found them very useful. I am using these techniques with profitable results. Much of the failure with VP seems to me to be associated with too close stops and not wanting to see an initial drawdown of perhaps 60 or more pips. There are entry techniques such as using Ph/Pl on a retrace that can reduce the drawdown (and be used to add to a position). His trades run for from 7 to 10 days with some into weeks.

The main thing is that the VP xo’s can and work as you can see that from the VP daily charts – with care and using VP parameters like NI and Strength.

The site is: http://www.genesisft.com/training/alaron.asp

Unfortunately none appear to be scheduled right now, the last was on May 19 I think. You may contact Brian Talbot at [email protected]

VP should be purchased only when special offers are made -- this weekend closes one such -- $775 for 10 markets (+2free).

Best regards
Trinity
  • #542
  • May 28, 2006 2:13am May 28, 2006 2:13am
Quoting Trinity
Andrew
I suggest that you and all VP owners sign up for the free Intermarket Analysis webinars given by Brian Talbot of Alaron. They usually have several a month and show the use of VP with various markets including a Forex pair. Brian uses SSTO 14/3/3 and MACD to confirm his trades on the daily charts based on the PTM/MA 10 day XO, talks about entry techniques, stop losses, and exit techniques, and I have found them very useful. I am using these techniques with profitable results. Much of the failure with VP seems to me to be associated with too close stops and not wanting to see an initial drawdown of perhaps 60 or more pips. There are entry techniques such as using Ph/Pl on a retrace that can reduce the drawdown (and be used to add to a position). His trades run for from 7 to 10 days with some into weeks.

The main thing is that the VP xo’s can and work as you can see that from the VP daily charts – with care and using VP parameters like NI and Strength.

The site is: http://www.genesisft.com/training/alaron.asp

Unfortunately none appear to be scheduled right now, the last was on May 19 I think. You may contact Brian Talbot at [email protected]

VP should be purchased only when special offers are made -- this weekend closes one such -- $775 for 10 markets (+2free).

Best regards
Trinity

Hi Trinity

Thanks for your reply

I have attended one of these webinars and it all looked good but at the one I attended he only answered the easy questions posted by punters and in my view the example given was heavily loaded towards a chart that looked good using his rules and I failed to see where the advantage was of having VP over using say a 5 ema crosses a 10 sma vs PTM and SMA cross.

I agree with you that stop placement using VP PH and PL is not the way forward.

I also don't see the point of using the MACD and Stochastics when these are single market indicators and and are just another way of looking at price. The whole point of VP is that it is supposedly based on intermarket analysis to give you an advantage.

It is worth me noting here that the guy who I mentioned lost half of his account trading VP had the account with Alaron, and they "managed" his account using VP. Now while losses are the ultimately the responsibility of the individual trader rather than the broker it is somewhat disturbing that VP and Alaron are singing off the same hymn sheet in order to sell to a trusting public. (my personal opinion)

In saying all the above I think VP does have some value and can be traded profitably but it takes a bit more work and understanding than what VP or Alaron would have you believe.

I also think that you need at least a $50,000 minimum account, preferably $100k to trade over at least a min 8 to 10 diversified and liquid markets.

VP certainly don't tell you this.

Good trading and look forward to further posts on this topic.

Cheers

Andrew C

p.s if somebody could tell me how to add pictures to posts I will post some charts.
  • #543
  • May 28, 2006 2:55am May 28, 2006 2:55am
Thanks for your facts and considered reply, Andrew.

A continual problem is jumping in when the MA's cross. It seems from my observations that VP encourages an entry when conditions are better suited to succeed and continue the trend. The MA's are much more prone to whipsaws.

I shall post in a few weeks time, perhaps with charts, as I'm tied up with other matters at the moment.

Best regards
  • #544
  • May 30, 2006 10:54am May 30, 2006 10:54am
Last week the "set & forget" system with CSI turned around and posted a profit of 59 pips. Yesterday was profitable by 125 pips. It will take a while to erase the total loss of about 1200 pips from the two previous loosing weeks, but most experienced traders tell me this type of cycle is to be expected with any mechanical trading system. I will continue to post the weekly results from the full 24 hour "S & F" system and will also post the results from my CSI, Genesis comparison when the free Genesis trial period has ended.

And as I gather information from on-going testing, this will be posted too.
  • #545
  • Jun 1, 2006 6:40pm Jun 1, 2006 6:40pm
{Edited out heresay and other false information} Edited by FT: I've been clear about the rules regarding discussion about whether VP is viable or not.



Hi all and Fijitrader

Bemused to find my post 540 was edited for the above reasons.

Just like to clarify a couple of things

The information I posted was not false nor was it heresay, it was based on actual conversations and events.

Fijitrader, missed your rules on regarding discussion of whether VP is viable or not, you will have to forgive a new member, I had assumed that this was a public forum and as such all views positive or negative could be expressed in a constructive and thought out manner. (understand that extremist views need to be moderated, )

I am not here to slag off VP. I have bought the software myself, and like others am attempting to intergrate it into a trading strategy.

In any case

I thought I would post my results after 2 weeks of trading using VP as part of my overall trade strategy.

14 days results

Total P&L $9,783

Of Which

$6,148 closed
$3,635 open (6 trades, 5 winner, 1 loss)

Total trades to date

19

13 Closed

Open trades

Long Cotton
Short 10yr T Bond
Short CAD (future)
Long Pork Bellies
Short OJ
Long Coffee

Account size $100k
Initial risk max 2% and must trade at least 2 contracts.

All the best

Andrew C
  • #546
  • Jun 2, 2006 4:27pm Jun 2, 2006 4:27pm
I am only starting to test out VP, so I don't know how well it works. But I don't really appreciate how VP advertises their product. One of my email account received their ad email today featuring the Gold chart for the past week. The chart looks good and gold dropped $57 in a week, and VP claims that this transfer to $5700 profit for one contract traded according to VP.

That is just a flat out lie: I know VP has given +1 Neutral Index for 2 of these five trading days.

The way VP promotes their product kind of concern me.
  • #547
  • Jun 2, 2006 6:51pm Jun 2, 2006 6:51pm
Quoting canoner
The chart looks good and gold dropped $57 in a week, and VP claims that this transfer to $5700 profit for one contract traded according to VP.

That is just a flat out lie: I know VP has given +1 Neutral Index for 2 of these five trading days.

The way VP promotes their product kind of concern me.
Hi canoner,
I think the marketing of VP concerns most users, but their claim for gold last week is valid if you base the entry on either the predicted 5 or 10 day moving average crossing the actual ma. Easy with hindsight of course, but they do recommend this approach for a medium term strategy.
  • #548
  • Jun 2, 2006 7:51pm Jun 2, 2006 7:51pm
Quoting rodant
Hi canoner,
I think the marketing of VP concerns most users, but their claim for gold last week is valid if you base the entry on either the predicted 5 or 10 day moving average crossing the actual ma. Easy with hindsight of course, but they do recommend this approach for a medium term strategy.

Exactly..If you could go back and pick and chose your strategies based on established patterns it is pretty easy. The fact is 70% or greater market is not in a solid trend and this strategy does not work. Otherwise we could use moving averages all the time...
  • #549
  • Jun 2, 2006 7:58pm Jun 2, 2006 7:58pm
Quoting rodant
Hi canoner,
I think the marketing of VP concerns most users, but their claim for gold last week is valid if you base the entry on either the predicted 5 or 10 day moving average crossing the actual ma. Easy with hindsight of course, but they do recommend this approach for a medium term strategy.
What is the recommended medium term strategy? Is Neural Index useful at all? My understanding is when the the gap between predicted and actual moving averages narrows, one should consider switch positions, even before the two actually cross each other. And that is why VP gives this Neural Index. Am I wrong?
  • #550
  • Jun 3, 2006 5:24am Jun 3, 2006 5:24am
Quoting canoner
What is the recommended medium term strategy? Is Neural Index useful at all? My understanding is when the the gap between predicted and actual moving averages narrows, one should consider switch positions, even before the two actually cross each other. And that is why VP gives this Neural Index. Am I wrong?
I don't want to get into what VP recommends as I've gone in a different direction and recommend anyone to backtest to find a working strategy. I have backtested a number, medium term and day trading and have come to the following conclusions:

Gold: Medium term Predicted MA10 MA5 with NI can give about 1200 pips per year. Day trading (see later) about the same.
eur-usd / gbp-jpy: Could not get any good results from PMAs etc. Day trading yielding about 4000 pips per year.

The problem with backtesting is that the data doesn't include whether a high occurred before a low or vica versa on a particular day, my 4000 pips assumes the order is in my favour each time, so real results are likely to be worse.

I am currently forward testing the day trading strategy, if anyone asks I'll post results in a couple of weeks. The strategy is as follows:
Get Direction for buy/sell from Predicted Median > or < Median.
Assuming a buy, enter on PLow + PMedian * 0.1, Exit on PHigh - PMedian * 0.45.
Reverse for a sell.
  • #551
  • Jun 3, 2006 8:30am Jun 3, 2006 8:30am
Quoting rodant
I don't want to get into what VP recommends as I've gone in a different direction and recommend anyone to backtest to find a working strategy. I have backtested a number, medium term and day trading and have come to the following conclusions:

Gold: Medium term Predicted MA10 MA5 with NI can give about 1200 pips per year. Day trading (see later) about the same.
eur-usd / gbp-jpy: Could not get any good results from PMAs etc. Day trading yielding about 4000 pips per year.

The problem with backtesting is that the data doesn't include whether a high occurred before a low or vica versa on a particular day, my 4000 pips assumes the order is in my favour each time, so real results are likely to be worse.

I am currently forward testing the day trading strategy, if anyone asks I'll post results in a couple of weeks. The strategy is as follows:
Get Direction for buy/sell from Predicted Median > or < Median.
Assuming a buy, enter on PLow + PMedian * 0.1, Exit on PHigh - PMedian * 0.45.
Reverse for a sell.
I for one would like to know how your strategy works out......please keep us informed.
  • #552
  • Jun 3, 2006 10:38am Jun 3, 2006 10:38am
This week the full 24 hour "S & F" system yielded a profit of 140 pips with CSI data. The only change in strategy that would have increased this yield would have been not to enter any USD pair trades on Friday.......NFP day. The system would have remained a true 24 hour "S & F" with an increase of about 50 pips for Friday.
  • #553
  • Jun 8, 2006 7:35pm Jun 8, 2006 7:35pm
Hi,

I am very new to VP, but not that new to trading and would appreciate a little feedback as I am looking to see whether this package is for me.

Currently we have program trading which works, I know this claim is impossible to validate here but the relevance is that as it is fully automated and makes reasonable returns - it is not possible to augment the programmed decision making process with VP signals.

Hence, I need to find a way to see whether a successful trading system can be implemented with VP.

The sales representative, claims that when the 5 day ma and the predicted 5 day ma cross - this is an excellent trading signal. FT seems to have quoted a very interesting system incorporating index / highs / lows.

To be honest the sales pitch, is just that - a sales pitch "we have 26 years history as a company etc etc etc .. " well so did Enron !

If they were to offer a money back guarantee, this would show more confidence.

Feedback most appreciated.

Thanks,
  • #554
  • Jun 8, 2006 8:38pm Jun 8, 2006 8:38pm
Hi Jansher21

See my post #541.

There is now a new schedule of Talbot's webinars so you can take those.

I like and use the approach of multiple small entries, adding on retracements using entry limit orders and taking partial profits as the trade progresses. This is akin to Dirk du Toit's practice of cost averaging when you evaluate the trend. Small entries also allow a wider SL to avoid being broker hunted.

The 10 day PMT XO is a good one to work from and you can keep price action in mind as well.

The Vegas Wealth Builder method gives a useful picture to work with, and the Knife (4H chart) can be used as a shorter time-frame.

Trinity
  • #555
  • Jun 9, 2006 5:25pm Jun 9, 2006 5:25pm
Hi,

There is a complex thread of questions on this forum - but I would like to know whether the central claim of the VP software is correct.

i.e. : Are they in actual fact correctly predicting the level of the 5 day ma 2-4 days in advance ??

This is the central claim of the software - and if they are actually in reality able to do this I would really like someone to confirm this for me.

Many thanks,
  • #556
  • Jun 9, 2006 7:20pm Jun 9, 2006 7:20pm
jansher21

The predicted 5 day MA is for 2 days in the future. The predicted 10 day MA is for 4 days in the future. They are accompanied by the PST and PMT, respectively.

The prediction is for a "tendency" and the accuracy appears high. Several reviews (website) and FT in this forum site attest to this. I prefer to use the 10 day predicted MA and PMT and the approach I have already indicated. As nothing is perfect you can get burnt if your open trade risk is too high.

You may have wide swings, apart from the exceptional circumstance of a very strong trend over several days, and from the effect of news releases -- but I gather that you are already familiar with this.

Regardless of enthusiastic comments on occasion, there is not an alpha and omega system of trading so far as I can see, but VP is, I think worthwhile at the special prices.

I have not traded VP long enough to be able to attest to an accuracy for the tendency which would involve many different factors also, including length of tendency and swings within and personal factors in trading it.

Trinity
  • #557
  • Jun 10, 2006 3:31am Jun 10, 2006 3:31am
Quoting jansher21
Hi,

There is a complex thread of questions on this forum - but I would like to know whether the central claim of the VP software is correct.

i.e. : Are they in actual fact correctly predicting the level of the 5 day ma 2-4 days in advance ??

This is the central claim of the software - and if they are actually in reality able to do this I would really like someone to confirm this for me.

Many thanks,
Hi

My take on this is that the Index predicts whether the market will move higher or lower over the next 2 days.

This is what the 80% accuracey relates to, i.e if the index is 1 then the market will move higher over the next two days, and depending on the market the is right between 70% and 80% of the time.

This however does not necessarily lead to having 70 to 80% profitable trades.

This is where the marketing gets in the way of the reality.

Cheers
  • #558
  • Jun 10, 2006 7:39am Jun 10, 2006 7:39am
Quoting jansher21
Hi,

There is a complex thread of questions on this forum - but I would like to know whether the central claim of the VP software is correct.

i.e. : Are they in actual fact correctly predicting the level of the 5 day ma 2-4 days in advance ??

This is the central claim of the software - and if they are actually in reality able to do this I would really like someone to confirm this for me.

Many thanks,
Sorry to not answer your question because I have not verified this, but I have verified that the next day Predicted Median is in the correct direction 75% of the time with EUR-USD and GBP-JPY.
Predicted Median being PMedian = PLow + (PHigh - PLow) / 2.
  • #559
  • Jun 10, 2006 9:45am Jun 10, 2006 9:45am
The last few posts here have been about using VP to predict short and medium term trends, something I have not done with this software. As many know, I use VP for daily price predictions which helps me intraday trade. In this way the software is very useful.

However, beware of claims made by sales people at VP. Instead, read all you can on the web about how VP is used by different traders and then decide if it will be a useful addition to your trading tool box.

Oh yeah...........don't pay full price or anything even close to that. VP is heavily discounted at times and in my opinion you can call them and barter the price down to where it becomes good value. (I paid $995 for 10 markets and have read where others paid the same for 12 or 13 markets. Recently I was offered ALL markets for another $995. Bargain hunters take notice!)
  • #560
  • Jun 11, 2006 12:12am Jun 11, 2006 12:12am
Quoting timaru69
Hi

My take on this is that the Index predicts whether the market will move higher or lower over the next 2 days.

This is what the 80% accuracey relates to, i.e if the index is 1 then the market will move higher over the next two days, and depending on the market the is right between 70% and 80% of the time.

This however does not necessarily lead to having 70 to 80% profitable trades.

This is where the marketing gets in the way of the reality.

Cheers
The Neural Index is definitely NOT that accurate for the markets I follow, mainly metals and energy, especially in recent weeks.
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