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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,121
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:04am Dec 4, 2012 6:04am
Quoting phil13
Hi Mike


do not worry your not the only one it has taken me a while for some things to sink in and I am still learning more bits all the time.


As fti says 'it's a marathon not a sprint'


Regards


Phil.
Yep! I'm certainly in for the long haul. Thanks for the kind words.
  • #37,122
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:05am Dec 4, 2012 6:05am
Quoting Zoran
Does this make it any clearer?

http://www.myspace.com/460438665/photos/14916993

Classic! and so true!
  • #37,123
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:47am Dec 4, 2012 6:47am


Inserted Video
  • #37,124
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:05am Dec 4, 2012 7:05am

ai ya wrong day for swimming
.cannons on the right,
cannons on the left,
in the middle, fti wearing a bear suit.
and is hunting season?

  • #37,125
  • Edited 7:27am Dec 4, 2012 7:16am | Edited 7:27am
Quoting Rabid Leper
You're short?
, yes

was thinking if birdie was out of ammo already.
this rustiness.

is ok, is small.
trying do some rescuing, otherwise damage control.
came home with a rigid miind.

is near BE.
so watching to see if euro cable wants take advantage of me.

the euro small
watching the cable
there sent rescuers.
  • #37,126
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:34am Dec 4, 2012 7:34am
ok , took small pee.

seems i better rest.
is not my day.


Thank You for the dinggy rescue.
next time i 'll be more careful.

Is a good day already.
got caught in a storm and coming home with some beans.

rest time

regards
  • #37,127
  • Edited 8:10am Dec 4, 2012 7:54am | Edited 8:10am
Quoting tubguy
I can show you what I was doing wrong. Just woke up. Will see if I can explain my stupidity a bit better soon.
i will be eageryly waiting for ur explanation with charts.thanks and may god bless u success and lot of green pips regard.
ps..it is not stupidity,its just ur learning curve and its grace of God,that he allowed u to experience that, given u the opportunity to improve.regard
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,128
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:38pm Dec 4, 2012 7:38pm
Quoting drzakir123
i will be eageryly waiting for ur explanation with charts.thanks and may god bless u success and lot of green pips regard.
ps..it is not stupidity,its just ur learning curve and its grace of God,that he allowed u to experience that, given u the opportunity to improve.regard
Thanks for the kind words Dr. I hope this shows a bit better how I was not in the flow and stayed in rescue way to often. What I was doing would work out in a ranging market ok, but I got killed in a trend. Just goes to show how a rigid mindset can hurt ya.I would convince myself that every
pullback could be the next turn of the trend. Things are looking much better now. just gotta deal with the spread. Be nice to trade without it. lol

Regards
Mike

BTW. Fti, please comment if you feel up to it. Would make my day sir.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Before and after Fti Hypo revisit.jpg Size: 86 KB
  • #37,129
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:31pm Dec 4, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the kind words Dr. I hope this shows a bit better how I was not in the flow and stayed in rescue way to often. What I was doing would work out in a ranging market ok, but I got killed in a trend. Just goes to show how a rigid mindset can hurt ya.I would convince myself that every
pullback could be the next turn of the trend. Things are looking much better now. just gotta deal with the spread. Be nice to trade without it. lol

Regards
Mike

BTW. Fti, please comment if you feel up to it. Would make my day sir.

i like,, the way you trade ,,tubguy,,

regards
suma
  • #37,130
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:59pm Dec 4, 2012 10:59pm
Quoting sumakianlee
i like,, the way you trade ,,tubguy,,

regards
suma
Thanks Suma!

I was way off and thought I had it figured out. Then I looked over the hypothetical chart pic that was marked up by Fti and saw stuff that I didn't before. I also reread the convo between Fti and Leighsww. Now things are feeling better. Haven't taken anything live since rereading that but much better results now it seems. Just gotta keep my mind right.

Regards
Mike
  • #37,131
  • Dec 5, 2012 12:47am Dec 5, 2012 12:47am
chief i hope you are doing fine.

your post opened the doors to lots of pondering.

"The structure of derivative markets is by design, unable to affect the underlying.
So even if you traded a trillion dollars, will not move the market 1 pip.
You see the real markets is in interbank spot forex,
When you trade the derivative, the trade does not go to the interbank markets."

chief why would spot not get affected by forward commitments and contingent claims. afterall they do take account of backwardation and contango in commodities. i understand the that the notional principles in futures and swaps be taken with care because they not represent the transfer of money. but i am unable to grasp how the demand for futures doesn't affect the spot of underlying. one more point, derivatives help in price discovery by arbitraging away oppertunities if any thus affecting spot.....isn't it?


regards
  • #37,132
  • Edited 2:26am Dec 5, 2012 2:08am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the kind words Dr. I hope this shows a bit better how I was not in the flow and stayed in rescue way to often. What I was doing would work out in a ranging market ok, but I got killed in a trend. Just goes to show how a rigid mindset can hurt ya.I would convince myself that every
pullback could be the next turn of the trend. Things are looking much better now. just gotta deal with the spread. Be nice to trade without it. lol

Regards
Mike

BTW. Fti, please comment if you feel up to it. Would make my day sir.
thank u very much for the reply,i am humbled.my feeling is ur trying two things on the lower time frame at the same time.
1.trying to find the direction
2.trade managament
in my opinion doing these two activities on the same time frame is dangerous and also the reason why ur landing on the wrong side of the main trend.in my opinion one has to find trade direction on longer time frame and trade managment on shorter time frame.let me explain:

if ur picking direction on lower time frame what happen is,as in ur chart the direction and momentum is down and then where ur sending a scout was in consolidation area where the volatality is very high but effective price movement is zero.becos of ur pyschological bias of market going down,every down tick will make ur bias stronger and ur perception will be what ur subconcious is seeing.that is a down move,hence ur sending a scout on short excursion.
To come around this problem of pycholigcial bias it is better to spend time watching only bigger time frame till one has feeling of clear direction,which is critical,once u have the direction as clearly as possible u come down the lower time frame and send ur scout and manage the position.make sure while establishing ur directional bias avoid looking at the lower time frame as much as possible becos of the higher volatality of the lower time frame ,which can mess up ur directional bias.
regard DrZak
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,133
  • Dec 5, 2012 2:49am Dec 5, 2012 2:49am
Hi mike


I personally find it easier to think of managing my trades as a way of 'adjusting' my position to the market, I have found it very flexible to think this way and not to concentrate totally on either attack or rescue as I must be doing one or the other all the time.
I have also found that the new 'adjustment' can have further 'adjustments' much to your advantage as the market continues to do its thing.

hi dr


I agree with you dr about about the time frame thing for direction, but if you look to high then you will be waiting a long time for trades or taking a trade in the right direction only for it to go against your for a while before the real turn happens, causing you to doubt your decision. Hence the reason I say I look for direction not trend (though that's just my interpretation of it).


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #37,134
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:47am Dec 5, 2012 3:47am
Quoting tubguy
Thanks for the kind words Dr. I hope this shows a bit better how I was not in the flow and stayed in rescue way to often. What I was doing would work out in a ranging market ok, but I got killed in a trend. Just goes to show how a rigid mindset can hurt ya.I would convince myself that every
pullback could be the next turn of the trend. Things are looking much better now. just gotta deal with the spread. Be nice to trade without it. lol

Regards
Mike

BTW. Fti, please comment if you feel up to it. Would make my day sir.
looks good.
some room for tweaks. but generally ok.

regards
  • #37,135
  • Dec 5, 2012 3:50am Dec 5, 2012 3:50am
Quoting cuthbert
chief i hope you are doing fine.

your post opened the doors to lots of pondering.

"The structure of derivative markets is by design, unable to affect the underlying.
So even if you traded a trillion dollars, will not move the market 1 pip.
You see the real markets is in interbank spot forex,
When you trade the derivative, the trade does not go to the interbank markets."

chief why would spot not get affected by forward commitments and contingent claims. afterall they do take account of backwardation and contango in commodities. i...
very fribulating feelings.
on heavy medications.
I will reply you when i feeling better.
Please excuse me for a few days.


regards
  • #37,136
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:01am Dec 5, 2012 4:01am
make rules and you will have fixed mindset, be water my friends and flow like rivers.
  • #37,137
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:40am Dec 5, 2012 5:40am
Quoting drzakir123
thank u very much for the reply,i am humbled.my feeling is ur trying two things on the lower time frame at the same time.
1.trying to find the direction
2.trade managament
in my opinion doing these two activities on the same time frame is dangerous and also the reason why ur landing on the wrong side of the main trend.in my opinion one has to find trade direction on longer time frame and trade managment on shorter time frame.let me explain:

if ur picking direction on lower time frame what happen is,as in ur chart the direction and momentum is...
Thanks Dr, wasn't expecting an evaluation. LOL I thought you had to pick the direction in order to make pips? Just playin a bit, I'm in a good mood this morning. Your thoughts are generally correct though
  • #37,138
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:45am Dec 5, 2012 5:45am
Quoting phil13
Hi mike


I personally find it easier to think of managing my trades as a way of 'adjusting' my position to the market, I have found it very flexible to think this way and not to concentrate totally on either attack or rescue as I must be doing one or the other all the time.
I have also found that the new 'adjustment' can have further 'adjustments' much to your advantage as the market continues to do its thing.

hi dr


I agree with you dr about about the time frame thing for direction, but if you look to high then you will be waiting a long time...

thanks Phil,

Yeah, I was being very rigid. I think that last trip against the trend woke me up.
  • #37,139
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:48am Dec 5, 2012 5:48am
Quoting fti
looks good.
some room for tweaks. but generally ok.

regards

Thank you sir. That means alot coming from you.

Rest well sir. See you when you return.
  • #37,140
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:16am Dec 5, 2012 6:16am
Quoting fti
very fribulating feelings.
on heavy medications.
I will reply you when i feeling better.
Please excuse me for a few days.


regards
no worries chief.

take care

regards
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