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  • #23,281
  • Dec 2, 2012 11:13am Dec 2, 2012 11:13am
Quoting HiddenGap
What can I say? Another brillant post. Thanks.

I have attached a chart of today showing some professional (SM) support during a down trend.
Hello HiddenGap,

This is the first time that I post on this thread and I must say that it is one of the very few that are worth delving into.
On your chart, please can you explain the different between the Professional Support near 07:45 AM and the Climactic Action between 06:30 and 06:45. To me it looks exactly the same but opposite and I wouidl have thought that the Professional Support was actually a Climatic Action, therefore expecting a reversal at around 8:00 AM.
Another way to ask would be: When is a climactic action confirmed? When is professional support confirmed?
This greatly appreciated. Thanks
  • #23,282
  • Dec 2, 2012 11:16am Dec 2, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Intel
You make a good point here. I would like to pick you up on one point tho, I am a huge fan of multi TF analysis. I look at the whole range of TFs every time I trade. Mostly to confirm or refute my GENERAL market analysis. I will also trade them if I see a vald setup. However, M5 and M15 are my TFs of choice.

Where I may differ from some is, if I see a valid setup on one TF, I will take it no matter what the other TFs say. This may not be right for everyone, it's just how my trading style/method has evolved. Lets not forget, I'm only in trades for...
Ah ok, cool, I obviously misread something somewhere along the line.
  • #23,283
  • Dec 2, 2012 1:18pm Dec 2, 2012 1:18pm
Quoting Intel
A couple of good answers already
There are several reasons for demand entering in a down move however, some times there is no demand entering at all. It just looks like it because price is rising.


In no particular order:-


1 SM do want to control the move.

2 We use the term 'SM' to describe an entity who moves the market at will. In fact, SM are made up of many groups of traders, some of which may want to stop the move. They will try to buy up the stock so it stops dropping. If they fail, price will stall for a while before...
I have a few quibbles with Intel's opinions, but have no dislike of or problem with any of the posters on this forum.

1. In light of No.2, No.1 is a tautology that conveys no differing information.

2. Groups do not have wills. However, a consensus of opinion can be ascertained by polling members of a group. The only entities that can move the FX markets at will are the decision makers of primary dealers or central banks. Less well capitalized entities do not have sufficient funds to manipulate currency exchange rates on their own; hence, their wills matter not save as components of a general composite operator.

3. Various fund managers operating on behalf of clients fall into the later class. These do not have sufficient capital to move FX exchange rates on their own; hence they operate re-actively rather than pro-actively.

4. FX is an OTC market, there aren't any formal market makers as in Nasdaq. The world's major banks act as primary dealers to provide liquidity while the BIS acts as a clearing house. The PD's don't need to test the market because they sense and know where the stops and limits are by virtue of access to order books or logs showing where less well capitalized trading entites have located stops and limits.

5. In order for FX rates to rise of fall the PD's and Central banks fix the rates as desired regardless of what lesser capitalized entities may desire. This is what it means when someone articulates the observation that SM moves the FX market at will. If the FX market responded to standard supply and demand, then it would not be a manipulated market.

6. The PDs not only provide market liquidity, but actively trade for their own accounts and against their customers. But what's a trader to do, this is the only game in town. Best to learn the ways of the PDs but to think of the market as controlled by a composite operator to avoid incessant controversy about what such and such an operator may of may not be up to.

VSA certainly helps although I'm skeptical of TG due to their constant marketing and attempts at selling.

Best Wishes to All for Happy Holidays and Big Profits.
  • #23,284
  • Edited 1:52pm Dec 2, 2012 1:40pm | Edited 1:52pm
Quoting Mingary
......On your chart, please can you explain the different between the Professional Support near 07:45 AM and the Climactic Action between 06:30 and 06:45. To me it looks exactly the same but opposite and I wouidl have thought that the Professional Support was actually a Climatic Action, therefore expecting a reversal at around 8:00 AM.
Another way to ask would be: When is a climactic action confirmed? When is professional support confirmed?...
Hello and welcome to the club.

First, please re-read the post by Intel that came before mine. My post was to show an example of #6.

Second, I have attached a new post of the same time frame with better information that should be discussed.

You are correct when you say that both intervals in question appear to be Climatic Action. If you look at the individual intervals in isolation, you can conclude that we have wide spread bars on ultra high volume closing off the high or low respectively. In fact, the down bar has more volume and closes further off of its low. Which may seem to be even more climatic.

But let's take a closer look.

Starting with the Climatic Action interval. Notice that there are six(6) consecutive down bars. Now, there is nothing special about the number six. But take note that the sixth down bar closes below the low of the Climatic Action Bar. This is key. If the Sm wanted higher prices they would be inclined to hold the low. Also note that there are two(2) No Supply intervals. Yet neither confirm with the next bar up.
Now let's move to the interval that was originally marked Professional Support. Again, at first glance it does appear to be Climatic Action. In fact, I have now marked it as Potential Stopping Volume. It has ultra high volume (volume greater than the previous 40 intervals as it is black), closes well off its low and the next interval is up.

This is a good time to stop and state, we are not looking to trade tops and bottoms. Even if this does turn out to be the bottom, this is not the place to get long if you follow Gavin's teachings.

With that in mind, let's look at the next few intervals. Overall we can note that the market moved sideways. We see some No Demand intervals. Whilst the very first one does not confirm with the next interval down, the 3 after that do. Also note that no interval closes above the high where the dotted line is placed. We have to conclude therefore that the Smart Money is supporting the price in order to bring in new buyers before they let price continue to fall. As a matter of fact, the gotcha' bar is where the Smart Money show their true intentions.

I know this seems to be in hindsight, but think about the underlying premise of the method (even if not followed by all): Trade in Harmony with the trend. Whether that is stopping volume/climatic action or not, you should not be looking to get long there. Those No Demands should be where you are looking to get short if not short already. Why? Because the trend is down.

With that said, there are some very good counter trend traders like Intel. As he said, he is usually in the market for 2-4 intervals. Based on that it would have been possible to get long after the Climax interval and exit with a few pips.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,285
  • Edited 4:03pm Dec 2, 2012 3:29pm | Edited 4:03pm
Quoting rbumbalough
I have a few quibbles with Intel's opinions, but have no dislike of or problem with any of the posters on this forum.

1. In light of No.2, No.1 is a tautology that conveys no differing information.
SM do control the descent as per my No1. SOMETIMES they will stall price or even raise it as per my No 2. They may not stall price, just try and force it to fall to where they want it.

Quoting rbumbalough
2. Groups do not have wills. However, a consensus of opinion can be ascertained by polling members of a group. The only entities that can move the FX markets at will are the decision makers of primary dealers or central banks. Less well capitalized entities do not have sufficient funds to manipulate currency exchange rates on their own; hence, their wills matter not save as components of a general composite operator.
Who said that SM does not include banks? I certainly never.

Quoting rbumbalough
3. Various fund managers operating on behalf of clients fall into the later class. These do not have sufficient capital to move FX exchange rates on their own; hence they operate re-actively rather than pro-actively.
You'd better ask Mr Soros about this one! Granted, most hedge funds are not SM but, I never said they were!

Quoting rbumbalough
4. FX is an OTC market, there aren't any formal market makers as in Nasdaq. The world's major banks act as primary dealers to provide liquidity while the BIS acts as a clearing house. The PD's don't need to test the market because they sense and know where the stops and limits are by virtue of access to order books or logs showing where less well capitalized trading entites have located stops and limits.
So there are no market makers but there are people who provide liquidity, care to specify the difference for us?

Banks etc (SM) do not always use stops, after all, who is going to guarantee to order match trades of such size that they can move the market? This means that they may need to test the market from time to time.

Quoting rbumbalough
5. In order for FX rates to rise of fall the PD's and Central banks fix the rates as desired regardless of what lesser capitalized entities may desire. This is what it means when someone articulates the observation that SM moves the FX market at will. If the FX market responded to standard supply and demand, then it would not be a manipulated market.
LOL are you really suggesting that a bank can 'set the rate' of exchange of a currency on the open market????? They can try and move it to where they want it.....thats it. If they do it your way, they would simply set it very low, buy loads, then set it very high and sell them. Then, do the same tomorrow.

So now you're suggesting that the SM DO NOT respond to standard supply and demand? I'm Not really sure what to say to this, I'm staggered.

Quoting rbumbalough
6. The PDs not only provide market liquidity, but actively trade for their own accounts and against their customers. But what's a trader to do, this is the only game in town. Best to learn the ways of the PDs but to think of the market as controlled by a composite operator to avoid incessant controversy about what such and such an operator may of may not be up to.
Sorry, I don't know what you mean by this so I can't comment.


Quoting rbumbalough
VSA certainly helps although I'm skeptical of TG due to their constant marketing and attempts at selling.

Best Wishes to All for Happy Holidays and Big Profits.
I am not sceptical about TG. They are a business selling their products and as such, I expect them to do whats best for THEM and NOT me.


Some rather interesting thoughts on market mechanics there.
  • #23,286
  • Dec 2, 2012 3:55pm Dec 2, 2012 3:55pm
Some great posts here guys.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,287
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:31pm Dec 2, 2012 7:31pm
Quoting gez40
Some great posts here guys.
You know it. Our old friend is back.

I hope it never lets me down again.

Inserted Video
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,288
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:33am Dec 4, 2012 6:33am
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Is this a correct trade?

There was a climatic upthrust (?) if there is such a thing.

Bar 1 was a no demand.

Bar 2 was an upthrust on higher volume at the area of supply 80s.

Short at the close of the upthrust 2.
  • #23,289
  • Dec 4, 2012 6:42am Dec 4, 2012 6:42am
Damm it lol, question answered.

Same thing keeps happening for the past 2 days.
  • #23,290
  • Edited 1:26pm Dec 4, 2012 1:03pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting lx384
Is this a correct trade?

There was a climatic upthrust (?) if there is such a thing.

Bar 1 was a no demand.

Bar 2 was an upthrust on higher volume at the area of supply 80s.

Short at the close of the upthrust 2.

Hello. Thanks for posting. The more we put out here, the more we get back.

First I would say I love "clean chart trading". I think it is the highest and purest form of trading there is. Not surprisingly, it's the hardest to master.
Okay, on to your question.

Whilst there are some issues with the set-up itself, I want to focus on something else.

Take a look at the chart below.

Without regard to what actually happened, this chart puts the set-up in a different light. This different light has everything to do with trading style, which is ultimately why your question is hard to answer. Everybody has a unique style of trading. So what is correct for one may or may not be correct for another.

Let's start with the first Up Thrust.

Supply does enter on this Up Thrust and push prices down. But price remains in an up trend. So a good place to take a trade- a long trade, would be at the No Supply. Why? Well the chart mode is up. The BPL is blue (think TG diamonds). Price is finding support above the Trend Bias Line. So in an up trend this style is to only look for longs.

Now take a look at those first two intervals that are marked No Demand (ND). Even though they are narrow range up intervals back into the range of the high volume Up thrust, the trend does not support taking them. At this point there has been no change in behavior. In fact, price is stronger since responding to the No Supply.

Okay, let's move ahead to the second Up Thrust. This Up Thrust comes on climatic volume (volume is colored black) and comes after we have seen Supply enter on a climatic volume narrow range interval. We now have two parts of one of Gavin's sequences. The third part would be a No Demand.

Take a look at the first two marked No Demands (NDs) after this Up Thrust. The first one, which is a narrow range (NR4) bar that makes a higher high and closes level than the previous bar, appears when the chart mode is down (red). This is an aggressive entry even though many traders would take it. However, if you are trying to trade in harmony with the trend, you would pass on this as price is not below the Trend Bias Line.

The next ND is again a narrow range (NR4) interval but this one actually closes up. Again, price is still above the TBL and now chart mode has turned to up (green). Since we trade Price and Volume and not indicators, we know the market is actually weak. Even if it is not the appropriate time to enter short.

Now take a look at the next two NDs. These two complete the sequence. And unlike the previous two, come once we have seen a change in behavior. That is, once the trend has changed to down. We are thus getting short in a down trend on weak bars which appear as the market attempts to go up.

I want to stress that there are two elements to this answer. One element is the set-up itself. While the other is the element of trading style. I guess what I am ultimately trying to say is, if you are okay with the set-up and with counter trend trading, the question as to whether the trade was correct has nothing to do with outcome.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,291
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:40pm Dec 4, 2012 2:40pm
Quoting lx384
Damm it lol, question answered.

Same thing keeps happening for the past 2 days.
Hi lx,

Along with HGs excellent post, take a look at this. The scenrios are not the same but, it might go some way to explaining some of the thinking behind what happens in the build up to the type of trade you were looking at.
  • #23,292
  • Dec 4, 2012 2:58pm Dec 4, 2012 2:58pm
Quater Finals Three: Gavin Holmes vs. Markus Heitkoetter tomorrow (12/6/12) @ 0900 EST.

I attended last time and it was fun to watch Gavin trade live. Since it is a competition, Gavin did have to break a few of his rules. That's the problem with such an event- you have to make trades. Whereas in the real world the market rewards patience. Anyway, the link is below to sign up.

http://www.infinitywebinars.com/LTC/quarterfinals3.htm
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,293
  • Dec 4, 2012 3:37pm Dec 4, 2012 3:37pm
FOR THE HATERS. Short trade call.

First off I use the 12 minute chart to determine trend and trade off of the 3 minute. But this is a call based strictly on trading the 12 min.

Take a look at the chart below.

We have seen a Buying climax followed by an Up Thrust (In The Form Of No Demand (ITFOND)) and we have seen a No Demand. This completes a sequence. However, the this is not the time to enter. We want to see price fall below the TBL and for the chart mode to change to down.

Now, since most don't have the TBL or Chart mode, what you want to wait for is price to fall down below the trigger number and them move back up towards in with No Demand. A nice squat would be okay to if you are more advanced.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,294
  • Dec 4, 2012 4:13pm Dec 4, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting HiddenGap
FOR THE HATERS. Short trade call.

First off I use the 12 minute chart to determine trend and trade off of the 3 minute. But this is a call based strictly on trading the 12 min.

Take a look at the chart below.

We have seen a Buying climax followed by an Up Thrust (In The Form Of No Demand (ITFOND)) and we have seen a No Demand. This completes a sequence. However, the this is not the time to enter. We want to see price fall below the TBL and for the chart mode to change to down.

Now, since most don't have the TBL or Chart mode, what you want...
I would agree the trigger number level with a nd bar would confim weakness but looking at the support below is it worth in terms of R:R-just my opinion
  • #23,295
  • Dec 4, 2012 7:59pm Dec 4, 2012 7:59pm
Quoting HiddenGap
FOR THE HATERS. Short trade call.

First off I use the 12 minute chart to determine trend and trade off of the 3 minute. But this is a call based strictly on trading the 12 min.

Take a look at the chart below.

We have seen a Buying climax followed by an Up Thrust (In The Form Of No Demand (ITFOND)) and we have seen a No Demand. This completes a sequence. However, the this is not the time to enter. We want to see price fall below the TBL and for the chart mode to change to down.

Now, since most don't have the TBL or Chart mode, what you want...
Quick update.

Price never made it below the TBL where the TBL was at the time of the origianal post. Since then price shot up and some supply entered. The new high has caused the TBL to rise and now price is below it. A short may set up above the Trigger Number.

At least we were not already short. Real traders know that to make a good trade you have to be around. And the means keeping your powder dry (minimize losses) so you have money to take a good trade.

At any rate, it looks like the opportunity to get short will come higher up. With that said, we don't want to get so locked into taking a short that we miss an obvious long if it appears.
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,296
  • Dec 5, 2012 12:11am Dec 5, 2012 12:11am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Stil holding long positions for a .3060 test. What i currently like seeing is negative news rally's. this is a great time to watch for supply to be gobbled up by large orders. Watch for the drop on high volume follwed by tight spread high volume bars clossing on their highs on 15 min to 1 hour timeframes. ill post an example when i get off this loud train commuter!
Still holding longs from a few days ago.
I agree with Hidden's post and trade call in the short term'; although I am still long-side bias for the longer term unless we see a shakeout.
  • #23,297
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:51am Dec 5, 2012 4:51am
Haven't posted a chart in a very long time so thought I'd throw this one out there. Already posted it in the VSA forum this morning but tis pretty quiet over there so i'll post it here as well.

15min chart on the right, 5min chart on the left. On the 15min chart we get a nice high volume bar into a previous top that was formed during Asia (also on out of the ordinary volume for the time of day) We get a push down over the next two bars and within this there is a nice little ND on the 5min chart into the 50% of the zone.

If this is a little too risky we also print a ND on the lowest volume in 20 bars into the low of the zone. This comes after two reversals and rejections of the zone low. Nice little set up I thought.

Overall I agree with Sono and I do think north is the way forward, PnF is pointing upwards with two targets already hit and a third at 1.3190 as a potential target.
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  • #23,298
  • Dec 5, 2012 5:08am Dec 5, 2012 5:08am
And a further chart, these kind of moves never fail to fascinate me.

15min chart with yesterday's highest volume zone. Look how price as moved within this zone. First we've the high volume to push down through the 50% (not marked on chart) followed by a reaction to the low and a reaction to the 50%.

Now that we've pushed through the low it'll be interesting to see whether we react to the low and push down or come back into yesterday's zone.
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  • #23,299
  • Dec 5, 2012 6:49am Dec 5, 2012 6:49am
Is this a 2 bar reversal? Shakeout?

There is no strength in the background. Currently long term uptrend short term downtrend. So I should start looking for things like no supply and reverse upthrust moving forward?

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  • #23,300
  • Dec 5, 2012 7:57am Dec 5, 2012 7:57am
I am a new guy here. I am trying to decipher VSA and I am having a heck of a time figuring it out. Been reading on other sites and PDF's as well, but it still isn't clear. The concept of Accumulation, markup, distribution and markdown seems easy enough, but when you get into the in-betweens of it, it gets more difficult. I hope this site helps. I read some of Tom Williams material, but about all I could get out of it was them trying to sell Trade Guider software. I'll go over it again, maybe there was something I was missing. The software would be nice, but it costs around 3000 bucks, and I can't afford that luxury, not yet anyway. So, maybe I can get something for my weakly brain pattern here.
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