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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,061
  • Dec 1, 2012 3:56am Dec 1, 2012 3:56am
Quoting fti
interbank prices differ from bank to bank and zone to zone.
Is the factor of how their blotters looks like that different zones and banks will shade prices.
There is no 1 price.
only a range. and 10 pips should be able contain most of what interbanks are quoting each other, under normal conditions.
When that band moves. Something in on the ground is driving it. Mostly is not retail positions.
So is not wise chase, need strategies and money managing.


Is same as medical cost Dr.
There is a general price.
And can differ from place to place due...
in that case point and figure chart with 10x1 or 15x1 is better to track the price?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,062
  • Edited 4:59am Dec 1, 2012 4:43am | Edited 4:59am
Quoting drzakir123
how do they offset the risk,if market moves against them,becos interbank prices will moves independent of these bucket shops.
hi normally their books would look quite 50:50 after much volatility on bothe up swings and down swings.

if they need hedge exposure to banks, is normally small differences between the long and shorts.
different shops will have different hedge MOs but mostly the spread gains can offset the hedge requirements, unless have super trends, then they will have tendency have very lopsided blotter. Normally thats when they invoke hedges.

Normally they would just allow tradersbattle it out amongst ourselves.
They just provide the facilities for the battle and get compensated by the spreads defray cost.
So its up to traders not injure ourselves by greed or mismanagement.
then we set up ourselves get slaughtered.



regards
  • #37,063
  • Edited 5:59am Dec 1, 2012 5:45am | Edited 5:59am
Quoting fti
hi normally their books would look quite 50:50 after much volatility on bothe up swings and down swings.

if they need hedge exposure to banks, is normally small differences between the long and shorts.
different shops will have different hedge MOs but mostly the spread gains can offset the hedge requirements, unless have super trends, then they will have tendency have very lopsided blotter. Normally thats when they invoke hedges.

Normally they would just allow tradersbattle it out amongst ourselves.
They just provide the facilities for the battle...
i found something very interesting while reading freud,it goes very well with what ur teaching:

''when making a decision of minor importance,i have always found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons.In vital matters however....the decision should come from the unconscious,from somewhere within'' [freud]


that is when not trading u look at everything take all the information in but at the time of entering market u send ur scout and leave it to ur subconcious to take appropriate decision and then if position go ur way u have a particular protocol to follow and if against u have a set protocols to follow.all these should be as mechanical as possible given one subconcious as much levey as possible to take appropriate decision as situation demand.


fti,i had asked u,what do u think of using point and figure chart with 10x1 or 20x1 as appropriate way to track prices?

regards and god bless u with good health and better quality of life.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,064
  • Edited 6:06am Dec 2, 2012 1:33am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting drzakir123
i found something very interesting while reading freud,it goes very well with what ur teaching:

''when making a decision of minor importance,i have always found it advantageous to consider all the pros and cons.In vital matters however....the decision should come from the unconscious,from somewhere within'' [freud]


[color=black]that is when not trading u look at everything take all the information in but at the time of entering market u send ur scout and leave it to ur subconcious to take appropriate decision and then...

Hi Dr,
i purposely not wanted reply that.
since you ask again i try explain.
TO ME.
point and figure charting is this.

Is a good technical tool.
BUT
it cannot be used for professional trading.
Only for peeps thats cannot face reality or wants mask reality.
Or if no time see reality.

The technique is basically applying filter, the reversal box select,
If one gets the reversal box atune to the market then is fine.
Otherwise is as good as blind trading.
But the market runs at differing volatilities, so how is the reversal box going get atuned to that?
So the technique just ignores all that and try to drive the trades into trends.
Is great if market is trending.
In congestions the technique dies like a rigid dog.

If I want close my eyes apply filter, even my wife is not having an affair?
Is good that way, keeps the peace.
But when someone fall over the cliff, the uglyness becomes real.
Was always ther, but masked, by filtering.
I hope this is clear.

Is not taht point and figuring cannot be used.
Only its too mechanical for me. Too rigid.
The outcome is as good as tossing coins.

There are peeps who try apply conventional patterns on it try sound clever.
But when info is missing.
They they not filtered the noise.
Filtered out the 'feel'.


MAny black box robots uses it.
In fact , my opinion of it is that it should not be classified as thechnical analysis.
There is little analysis, mostly blind trading.
And hoping the filters catch a trend run.

In a conventional bar or candlestick chart that same info exist, but more
the time scales tells us more stuff about whats happening.

regards

I used to have a chartist, who worked for me.
He is very deligent.
chats not only market, but in time zonal segments.
He normallly can read his rainbow coloured charts, tell me what the asians did, what the europeans did and how the americano screwed their game plans.
Was very intersting listening to him always.
Had lots stories and built feels on what about to happen, and who's screwing who.
Mostly the feel builds into the ground news for us try get bird's eye view of whats actually happening.

I not want to paint a picture of gloom, but the world we live in had become somewhat rigid.
Have peeps hold stance, and implimenting rigid mindset and policies, disregarding whats happening on ground as noise.
By keeping noise subdued , can impliment anything that they wish.

too many cents already.

even i do it.
now all the noisys are gone , after use the bao blades.
but i guess i have no agenda , just keeps the peace for learning.
Not knw if it right or wrong, just not like threatening peeps,
But as all things, the results left to be analysed.

Is poossible my minds begining to fail me.
Hearing flashback voices a lot when resting.
there's this girl telling me.
"Feelings are like chemicals. the more one analyses it the more they smell."
this is from half a lieftime a ago.
or maybe is just the phtographic part of the mind trying erase old photos.

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  • #37,065
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:24am Dec 2, 2012 4:24am
[quote=fti;6253164]Hi Dr,good morning fti
i purposely not wanted reply that. i can feel that,who said knowledge is so easy to gain.
since you ask again i try explain.
TO ME.
point and figure charting is this.

Is a good technical tool.
BUT
it cannot be used for professional trading.
Only for peeps thats cannot face reality or wants mask reality.
Or if no time see reality.got the point

The technique is basically applying filter, the reversal box select,
If one gets the reversal box atune to the market then is fine.
Otherwise is as good as blind trading.
But the market runs at differing volatilities, so how is the reversal box going get atuned to that?
So the technique just ignores all that and try to drive the trades into trends.
Is great if market is trending.
In congestions the technique dies like a rigid dog.
it was my idea,that if interbank market spread is about 10 pips then if whatever happening inside that range is probably noise and if we remove that noise then probably we can see how the prices are moving in reality.but u may be right,its very rigid becos one need to know what path the price took to reach the certain level.yes volatilty may be 100 but the effective price movement can be zero,like in doji,and we as pro trying to exploit the volatality and not effective price movement or level.thank u fti.

If I want close my eyes apply filter, even my wife is not having an affair?
Is good that way, keeps the peace.
But when someone fall over the cliff, the uglyness becomes real.
Was always ther, but masked, by filtering.
I hope this is clear.very very clear

Is not taht point and figuring cannot be used.
Only its too mechanical for me. Too rigid.
The outcome is as good as tossing coins.sure undertand this much more clearly now.

There are peeps who try apply conventional patterns on it try sound clever.
But when info is missing.
They they not filtered the noise.
Filtered out the 'feel'.i can see what u mean


MAny black box robots uses it.
In fact , my opinion of it is that it should not be classified as thechnical analysis.
There is little analysis, mostly blind trading.
And hoping the filters catch a trend run.i can see much more clearly but piece are falling in place thank u fti

In a conventional bar or candlestick chart that same info exist, but more
the time scales tells us more stuff about whats happening.i am appreciate the time element much more.

regards

I used to have a chartist, who worked for me.
He is very deligent.
chats not only market, but in time zonal segments.
He normallly can read his rainbow coloured charts, tell me what the asians did, what the europeans did and how the americano screwed their game plans.
Was very intersting listening to him always.
Had lots stories and built feels on what about to happen, and who's screwing who.
Mostly the feel builds into the ground news for us try get bird's eye view of whats actually happening.

I not want to paint a picture of gloom, but the world we live in had become somewhat rigid.
Have peeps hold stance, and implimenting rigid mindset and policies, disregarding whats happening on ground as noise.
By keeping noise subdued , can impliment anything that they wish.very very true

too many cents already.yes but i am rich now.thank u

even i do it.
now all the noisys are gone , after use the bao blades.
but i guess i have no agenda , just keeps the peace for learning.
Not knw if it right or wrong, just not like threatening peeps,
But as all things, the results left to be analysed. can't pass judgement as i believe God is master of day of judgment.

Is poossible my minds begining to fail me.
Hearing flashback voices a lo t when resting.?auditory hallucinations,one will learn to live with them.
there's this girl telling me.
"Feelings are like chemicals. the more one analyses it the more they smell."
this is from half a century a ago.
or maybe is just the phtographic part of the mind trying erase old photos.from the quality of answer ur giving,i think ur mind working alright.my suggestion is keep urself active in markets,as that will keep ur mind working becos as i say to my patients,if u dont use it,u will loose it.thank u. regards Dr,Zak
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,066
  • Edited 5:41am Dec 2, 2012 4:54am | Edited 5:41am
[quote=drzakir123;6253258]
Quoting fti
Hi Dr,[color=red]good morning fti.

from the quality of answer ur giving,i think ur mind working alright.my suggestion is keep urself active in markets,as that will keep ur mind working becos as i say to my patients,if u dont use it,u will loose it.thank u. regards Dr,Zak

now i am worried.
oh not for the mind.
mostly the pecker.

ai ya mad and old. libido?

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regards
  • #37,067
  • Dec 2, 2012 5:44am Dec 2, 2012 5:44am
[quote=fti;6253274]
Quoting drzakir123


now i am worried.
oh not for the mind.
mostly the pecker.

ai ya mad and old. libido?



regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,068
  • Edited 9:08am Dec 2, 2012 5:52am | Edited 9:08am
[quote=drzakir123;6253299]
Quoting fti
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Teresa Teng 鄧麗筠
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  • #37,069
  • Edited 10:30am Dec 2, 2012 10:01am | Edited 10:30am
The original, in 1973
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Does anyone knows what it takes, make someone's cold song a hot song?
Is not easy.Is not easy.
Wonder is it same as making peeps, consistent profitable traders?
control, managing, arrangement and delivery......practis practise practise.the key?...maybe not so different?
consistently sparing with the cream and the best?


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regards
  • #37,070
  • Edited 10:48am Dec 2, 2012 10:34am | Edited 10:48am
Losses are lessons to challange the spirit.
Takes lots guts try higher bars beyond ones capacity mostly.
Just a little higher, just a little bit further, just 1 more step up hill.
Without fear, without prejudice, keep pushing the envelop of developing.
Lots Guts, tears and sweat.

Be the best one can be, always.

The Original.
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  • #37,071
  • Dec 2, 2012 10:45am Dec 2, 2012 10:45am
"Losses are lessons to challange the spirit."

Very nice fti, thank you.
All systems of divination, like music itself,work through patterns.
  • #37,072
  • Dec 2, 2012 10:53am Dec 2, 2012 10:53am
Quoting kaspopsicle
"Losses are lessons to challange the spirit."

Very nice fti, thank you.

regards
  • #37,073
  • Edited 11:32am Dec 2, 2012 11:21am | Edited 11:32am
If any friends wondering why i am still up.
Is because i have green light.

Cleared for takeoff.
on the runway waiting for the battle.
On threshold waiting clearence.

very excited
but small task .
no sweat.

Lets see if this rusty jotstick can still flow.
they worried this crazy goes bananas without activity.

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  • #37,074
  • Dec 2, 2012 11:34am Dec 2, 2012 11:34am
Quoting fti
If any friends wondering why i am still up.
Is because i have green light.

Cleared for takeoff.
on the runway waiting for the battle.
On threshold waiting clearence.

very excited
but small task .
no sweat.

Lets see if this rusty jotstick can still flow.
they worried this crazy goes bananas without activity.
hi fti,in ur initial days on this thread ur researching the brokers,where did it lead.now which trading platform/ broker u use for ur trading.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,075
  • Edited 12:12pm Dec 2, 2012 12:00pm | Edited 12:12pm
Quoting drzakir123
hi fti,in ur initial days on this thread ur researching the brokers,where did it lead.now which trading platform/ broker u use for ur trading.regards
ai ya showing brokers?
well they all nearly the same.
Licenced SG brokers , UK brokers, have sagregated customers deposit protection mandated by authorities., so credit risk is minimised.
If training , the only broker i found allows small money is oanda. They trades from $1 usd up to 10 million on their prices.
Many interbank retirees trading IBFX aust.
There some swiss brokers like dukascopy who will do on market prices, but they charge commssion for trades.
Also MB trading USA.

2 notable market liquidity provider came on scene early, deutsche and citi. deutsche left market for unknown reasons.

Otherwise no diff who you trades with. Every ones trying get their 2 pips from you.
Best be licenced and near enough for you able go over their office choke the daylights out of em, if you need arbitration.

If you Big enough can trade direct with bank's prime customer services.
If you small just try thr buckets and give them a run for their money.
The industry is not matured enough yet for retail trading.

Rule of thumb is if any brokers gives you disinfomation, you run like the wind.
Any arbitations, just pull plug on them. Or have a few local ones and see which one treats you well.

I think FF has a big list of these peeps.
I not travelled well this days, so i not know how the international scene.
So i would be the wrong horse to ask.

and please note, you not trading FOrex, you trading forex dervatives known as CFDs.
So the world's forex Associations have no hand in the managing of your market access, even if the name is a bank.



regards
  • #37,076
  • Dec 2, 2012 12:04pm Dec 2, 2012 12:04pm
Hi fti

back in the fight my friend, they say you can't keep a good man down.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #37,077
  • Dec 2, 2012 12:09pm Dec 2, 2012 12:09pm
Quoting fti
yo, Zoran.
ya i did checked out the ssds.
they like fly traps.
true the not crash because no rotating disk.
But their hard working life span's short.
so they no assets either. Only advantage is speed.
That i already top notched cutting edge.

one day, my friend, one day.
whatever happened to bubble technology, still waiting, and now my life span is running low.
been waiting for it , since my teens.
IBM R&D moves slow like snails.

regards
Hi fti, I've never heard of bubble technology or my memory of it has faded. In IT, many good ideas turn into nothing or are ahead of their time. Anyway, I would recommend getting SSDs and putting them in a RAID set. That way, disk failures are protected. You will get reliability and speed. I'm sure you wouldn't look back once you see it in action.
  • #37,078
  • Edited 12:57pm Dec 2, 2012 12:21pm | Edited 12:57pm
Quoting Zoran
Hi fti, I've never heard of bubble technology or my memory of it has faded. In IT, many good ideas turn into nothing or are ahead of their time. Anyway, I would recommend getting SSDs and putting them in a RAID set. That way, disk failures are protected. You will get reliability and speed. I'm sure you wouldn't look back once you see it in action.

I had seen raid in action, mutiple versions.
my feeling is raid is dangerous.
but i not have critical data.
Mostly is my music i ripped from my CDs.
Is more convenient managing, and my CDs are all over the places.
But is non issue now, with you tube and my hearing also deterioating, The harddisk 6 terra daisylink should out live me.

Oh the bubble storage system was R&D by IBM eons ago.
was supposed store data in solid state gluey plastic tubes
was supposed create the multi terra solid state storage system.
i think they could have hit an impass.

When i helped directed setup some data centre incubator farms for the exchanges. was so surprised learned "Murphy" can strike even on off center data backups.
Seems archiving digital data is non viable yet, as there really no robust reliable digital archiving medium yet. Maybe paper tapes and aluminium punched still best way. But is bulky.
Maybe googoo had found way storing data copys everywhere, but they not want show how they doing it.

Cloud storage seems like an alternative, but is still early to tell. Much security problems. And most of the encryption of stuff had been broken.

Glass moding is also another possibility.
but cost is an issue.


regards
  • #37,079
  • Dec 2, 2012 2:19pm Dec 2, 2012 2:19pm
RAID is safe so long as you have the mechanism to detect failures and support to replace failed disks. Raid 1 (mirror), Raid 5 (single parity) with a hot spare and Raid 6 (double parity) are the most common. These days, we tend to mix disks with high speed, medium speed and average speed while using storage technology to automatically determine what goes where based on access. I think SSDs are maturing. Perhaps they were not reliable to begin with but it is becoming more reliable.
  • #37,080
  • Dec 2, 2012 7:05pm Dec 2, 2012 7:05pm
hi fti
if you want, you're in my profile avatar
image for you
rgs
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