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  • #181
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:42am Nov 30, 2012 5:42am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Finally - sometimes these setups can be absolutley exhausting
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  • #182
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:52am Nov 30, 2012 5:52am
Market order. I wanted to see it break the R3 level which I find is often the limit for a run.

9er how do you weigh the 15 bullish signal against the hourly bearish?

I took profit just above R2 by the way.
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  • #183
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:35am Nov 30, 2012 6:35am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Don - I apologize but I am not following your question? 15 bullish signal?

Quoting Don M
Market order. I wanted to see it break the R3 level which I find is often the limit for a run.

9er how do you weigh the 15 bullish signal against the hourly bearish?

I took profit just above R2 by the way.
  • #184
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:52am Nov 30, 2012 6:52am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Didn't notice this previously. Wow you trade the EJ? Impressive, but why would you have simply taken profit with your RSI turning down below the 50? Seeing that made my mouth water. I would have locked in profit at a safe level and gradually moved that baby down.

That RSI can keep you in the trade if you manage it properly!

Quoting Don M
Market order. I wanted to see it break the R3 level which I find is often the limit for a run.

9er how do you weigh the 15 bullish signal against the hourly bearish?

I took profit just above R2 by the way.
  • #185
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:06am Nov 30, 2012 7:06am
I meant the 15 minute bullish bat vs the hourly bearish butterfly.

Also on the 5min we hit the 200 ema amd bounced pretty good.

You're probably right about moving my stop down but I got too nervous.
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  • #186
  • Edited 7:36am Nov 30, 2012 7:12am | Edited 7:36am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Ok so check this out - scalping the 15M. Draw your attention to the attached chart. Notice the perfectly shaped and symmetrical pyramids that I painted in yellow. The ZUP DID NOT PAINT THIS PATTERN, this is where I say use your eyes. The ZUP did however outline it enough to show me the patterns.

Remember the pointy end? Well that is D. And if you get acquainted with the properties of the ABCD pattern you know now to look for confirmation.

Number one the AO is accelerating to the zero line (moving towards it, decreasing in size), the RSI touched 30.

So you have
1. A PERFECT ABCD pattern
2. AO telling you it's "ok"
3. RSI confirming both
4. Close enough to the 200 to count!

you now have 3.5 reasons to pull the trigger - this move RIGHT now is at +35 pips and still going How is that for simple?

Any questions?
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  • #187
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:24am Nov 30, 2012 7:24am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Very good question. They are both valid. You have a few choices,It's a matter of style. If I am locked into a trade, I allow the lower TF to come off the signal, allowing the market to breathe and hoping it doesn't hit my locked profit (or otherwise). If this is the case I tend to stick with the high time frame signal as they are the more powerful.

They conflict each other - if you are not in a trade and are looking to scalp, move to the lower TF and scalp if it doesn't conflict with the pairs Bias (if it does conflict, it should be a pretty strong signal for you to enter against the bias).

The REALLY fun aspect is when they agree, and should you happen to catch it on the lower TF, this allows for an earlier entry (if you trade with stops, as I do). You can ride it from the lower TF, keep your locked profits at a safe level and drill to the higher TF and follow it from there - do you follow?

Quoting Don M
I meant the 15 minute bullish bat vs the hourly bearish butterfly.

Also on the 5min we hit the 200 ema amd bounced pretty good.

You're probably right about moving my stop down but I got too nervous.
  • #188
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:44am Nov 30, 2012 7:44am
Good Day To All,

9er if I have your permission and it won't diviate from your mission, I'd like to discuss with the group here the topic of these patterns and ratios. It's my area of expertise and often misread and misunderstood. I've been around for some sime I read alot and seldom contribute to these threads do to their envirnment and counter productive tendencies. Please don't let a few bad apples spoil the bunch what you are doing here is truley special and I hope everyone here can see and appreciate this. Those that are caught up on percentages and wins verses losses do not truley understand the nature of this amazing business. There are many components to trading and being profitable is what its all about! Being profitable is a package deal not not a system or style that is the lease important of one these components.

Cheers,

Mr. Pip
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #189
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:55am Nov 30, 2012 7:55am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
So who says you can't trade ranging markets? They are the most fun - just dont attempt to trade them on 30 min TF or higher.

Point your attention to the attached chart, what happened? Another shape - yes? A triangle, then what happened? for the next 30 minutes it went down? Really? You don't say?

Quandry: You entered long on the previous signal. You stayed patient and gradually locked in your daily goal, when you lock in profits, BE HAPPY with it and DON'T get GREEDY! However, RSI crossed 50 moving up (on the original premise), signaling Long bias - yes? You locked in 10 pips, do you close it at the high and take more profit, or lock it in at 10 and see what the RSI does? Matter of style and patience! Me? I lock in 10 pips and wait.

The best thing you can do when you lock in profit is to get up from your desk, go do some chores or something and come back later. If your decision to lock in profits results in only 10 pips, so be it.

BUT! If your decision to lock in 10 pips worked properly and you come back with a chance to lock in 30, 40 - 50? It happens ALL the time! I make most of my profit from ranging markets. Many times it's boring and I only get 10 pips - but hey, 10 pips is 10 pips brother and sisters!
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  • #190
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:57am Nov 30, 2012 7:57am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Absolutely Mr Pip - chime right on in. Most of the time it's just me talking anyway!

Quoting Mr. Pip
Good Day To All,

9er if I have your permission and it won't diviate from your mission, I'd like to discuss with the group here the topic of these patterns and ratios. It's my area of expertise and often misread and misunderstood. I've been around for some sime I read alot and seldom contribute to these threads do to their envirnment and counter productive tendencies. Please don't let a few bad apples spoil the bunch what you are doing here is truley special and I hope everyone here can see and appreciate this. Those that are caught up on percentages...
  • #191
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:07am Nov 30, 2012 8:07am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
OK so what happened at the conclusion of the last 15M candle?

You went to the kitchen - because you couldn't bare to watch! You return to see that price came to within 2 PIPS of your locked in profit!

WOOHOO! Look at it now? Exciting stuff isn't it?

RSI is still over 50, you still have 10 pips locked and are still alive to lock in some more!
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  • #192
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:24am Nov 30, 2012 8:24am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
What happens next? We just locked in 8 more pips! +18
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  • #193
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:55am Nov 30, 2012 8:55am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Next candle. AO is decreasing - maybe momentum slowing? Drawing to the close of the week? Last candle came to within 1.1 pips of your locked 18 pips.

Would it have been better to close when this trade was at +35? Well - again it's a matter of your style. +35 pips would have been quicker, it is after all Friday. I still stick with what has worked for me. I am plenty happy with +18 pips!

I am closing it down it down here for the weekend.

Hopefully I spread a little bit of knowledge to you - maybe next week you can do the same for me?

I will look for some more setup's tomorrow!

Have a good weekend
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  • #194
  • Nov 30, 2012 9:10am Nov 30, 2012 9:10am
Okay let’s talk a little bit about advance patterns and ratios later on but first I’d like to say.
One of the first things we must come to terms with is that there is nothing random about the financial markets. Those of us that trade off of the charts and take signals based on price are primarily technical traders. Some use a combination of technical and fundamental data and that is fine as well. I for one completely disregard news events. These fundamental even represent for me nothing more than a period of volatility. I am aware of their release only from a trade management point of view. I don’t waste any time trying to find the best source for fundamentals because it leads to information overload and confusion. As traders we often tend to over complicate a simple process. We also tend to optimize our styles or systems when there is no need to do so. I know it hurts some of us to take a loss but guess what that is part of the business. We are conditioned as human beings to avoid pain and our attempt to want to make changes to a system or style once we string a couple of losses is our natural tendencies of pain avoidance. We must only optimize base on three criteria’s they are:
· Is it measurable?
o You must be able to capture the data of your optimization to evaluate the impact of your changes. Are they favorable or not?
· Is it repeatable?
o You must able to reproduce these results consistently.
· Does it have positive expectancy?
o If your style or system has a positive expectancy don’t worry about the losses we all have them. You must build a belief system and with proper money management trade your plan. You must have one if you are going to be successful in this business. All successful businesses have a business plan why don’t you? Your trade plan is your business plan.
Your approach to the markets must be consistent! If they are not, so will your results. This is the secret to success or failure in trading. I’m sure many will argue this point and that is why there is a 90% failure rate.
I felt this was an important point to make as it has completely changed my life. It’s good to be in the 10% please join us and respect all ideas presented, contribute positively. This is a never ending journey and no one has all the answers. The work 9er has done here is truly selfless and remarkable. I will get into some harmonics (market geometry) and patterns in an upcoming post. I also like to show visual examples because it’s how we learn best. This is a brief example of how these markets are not as random as people think there is definitely a natural order to them. It is our job as chart technicians to find their rhythm by any means necessary (styles, systems, whatever works for you) and exploit them.

Here is a chart of EURUSD 5M look at how price respects ratios and patterns. Millions of people trade this market, it is humanly impossible to determine what they are thinking. They are steered by fear and greed the two basic emotions that drive any financial market. It is our job to identify where they are collectively likely to make decisions that will drive price. I ask you if this chart has a natural order to it and if we knew where some of these decisions were going to take place?
Cheers,

Mr. Pip
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Click to Enlarge Name: $EURUSD (5 Min) 11_30_2012.jpg Size: 97 KB
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #195
  • Nov 30, 2012 10:40am Nov 30, 2012 10:40am
So much to read and absorb

BUT did you notice this change fm 9er

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you to their level and beat you with experience"

LOL
  • #196
  • Nov 30, 2012 10:48am Nov 30, 2012 10:48am
Quoting laimonk
So much to read and absorb

BUT did you notice this change fm 9er

"Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you to their level and beat you with experience"

LOL
Priceless!
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #197
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:45am Nov 30, 2012 11:45am
Okay let’s talk about ratios, price action respects Fibonacci ratios as you may have seen in some of my charts. They are also the foundation of advance patterns and market harmonics. It is imperative that you have an understanding of ratios and how they are applied to price action to properly identify these patterns which are so profitable. I must recommend an amazing book if you want to learn more about harmonics and advance patterns. This book is one of those books that should be a part of every trader’s library. Harmonic Trading, Volume One: Profiting from the Natural Order of the Financial Markets by Scott M. Carney. This author also has a website with lots of free info on the topic. Whether you use price action, indicators or both to time you entry into the market this basic knowledge must be understood and applied properly. 9er uses a combination of both and focuses on how price is reacting to the condition that the indicators are presenting. This is how indicators should be used and not entering into a market because all of our indicators lined up. I will say this 100 times price action is king and we must learn to read it like a book. I made this short video for a small group of traders I was mentoring a few months back on Fibs and forecasting. I hope you enjoy it and please let me know if you would like for me to continue on to patterns and some harmonics. I believe this information is very relevant to this thread and style of trading.

Inserted Video
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #198
  • Nov 30, 2012 12:12pm Nov 30, 2012 12:12pm
Chart is too dark - can't see if although can understand what you're saying. Would be good if you could show with a light coloured background.
  • #199
  • Nov 30, 2012 12:24pm Nov 30, 2012 12:24pm
Quoting handy148
Chart is too dark - can't see if although can understand what you're saying. Would be good if you could show with a light coloured background.
Okay sorry about that I will take this into account. I spend so much time infront of the charts that the white background was giving me headaches.
Was this helpful? Hopefully it helped some understand some basics to Fibs.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #200
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:10pm Nov 30, 2012 1:10pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
Okay sorry about that I will take this into account. I spend so much time infront of the charts that the white background was giving me headaches.
Was this helpful? Hopefully it helped some understand some basics to Fibs.
Helpful indeed but I suggest to use Silver as a background which is easy on the eyes.

This is the type of information we need to take inn together with 9ER's explanations.

Gosh - thank you for a long and learning day

John from Durban
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