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Silent Service Method

  • #14,901
  • Nov 25, 2012 5:53am Nov 25, 2012 5:53am
Quoting Hugh Briss
I have to disagree here, I have tested several systems recently that all make money and are all based on indicators. I ran a Donchian channel system live for 3 months and made 20%. It's not the indicators that don't work it's the people that use them. The other thing you need to bear in mind is that trend following systems don't work when there are no trends. Also what timeframe are you using? If you're using anything less than 4 hour then you're asking to lose anyway.

There are a few traders on here who only trade m15 and below and consistently make money.

Depends on the trader - Scalping works for some - swinging for others Fundies - position - we all need to find our personal niche.
  • #14,902
  • Nov 25, 2012 6:15am Nov 25, 2012 6:15am
Quoting stewrigh
There are a few traders on here who only trade m15 and below and consistently make money.

Depends on the trader - Scalping works for some - swinging for others Fundies - position - we all need to find our personal niche.
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting that it is not possible to make money from any timeframe but if you're struggling as it is the last thing you need is to sit staring at 5 min charts trying to make money. Better to get it right on a higher timeframe first and then if that's your thing then go lower.
  • #14,903
  • Nov 25, 2012 12:11pm Nov 25, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting Hugh Briss
Oh yes, I wasn't suggesting that it is not possible to make money from any timeframe but if you're struggling as it is the last thing you need is to sit staring at 5 min charts trying to make money. Better to get it right on a higher timeframe first and then if that's your thing then go lower.

It is certainly easier to learn trading on the higher time frames. There are some who do quite well on short term charts, but very few of them learned on them. It is all about understanding how a market moves, i.e. support, resistance, and other factors, and then having the fortitude to trade those lower time frames.

It can certainly be done, but it takes nerves of steel in my opinion.
  • #14,904
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:59pm Nov 27, 2012 7:59pm
I found the EUR/USD interesting at the close. I think we have a "brick wall" at 1.3050, and the outside candle (albeit barely) suggests that we are about to start falling again - certainly have had a sharp enough bounce in order to justify a pullback....
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  • #14,905
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:30pm Nov 27, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting clockwork71
I found the EUR/USD interesting at the close. I think we have a "brick wall" at 1.3050, and the outside candle (albeit barely) suggests that we are about to start falling again - certainly have had a sharp enough bounce in order to justify a pullback....
Yep it's the EU deal beginning to unravel - 'buy the rumour sell the news' LOL.
  • #14,906
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:49am Nov 28, 2012 8:49am
Quoting stewrigh
Yep it's the EU deal beginning to unravel - 'buy the rumour sell the news' LOL.
Constant rinse and repeat. I am amazed that these rumors still have so much power in the markets. You would think the markets would become numb to it... but then again... any excuse to run a currency one way or another... well, money to be made... right?
  • #14,907
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:53am Nov 28, 2012 8:53am
I have recently started looking at a futures chart of the US$ to gauge my trades. For those that already do this...

- Is it a lot more accurate in terms of S/D vs spot?
- It seems to move a lot more smooth too

Thoughts on this? Would it be wise to base my swings off of the dixie? Since I have never used it before, I may just be doing the old hindsight is clear as day thing... so i'm just looking for those who have had experience with it, and what you make of it.
  • #14,908
  • Nov 28, 2012 4:16pm Nov 28, 2012 4:16pm
Quoting Venice
I have recently started looking at a futures chart of the US$ to gauge my trades. For those that already do this...

- Is it a lot more accurate in terms of S/D vs spot?
- It seems to move a lot more smooth too

Thoughts on this? Would it be wise to base my swings off of the dixie? Since I have never used it before, I may just be doing the old hindsight is clear as day thing... so i'm just looking for those who have had experience with it, and what you make of it.
Actually, you can base an entire career off of it if you think about it. After all, half of the equation in the major pairs is the USD. So what I will do sometimes is look at the "set up" in the DXY, and place spot trades as a result. If it looks strong, I know the NZD/USD will be in trouble for example. However, this should be done when there isn't pressing news out of New Zealand.

There are always "oddball" moments, but the spirit of this runs true over time.
  • #14,909
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:37am Nov 29, 2012 7:37am
Quoting clockwork71
I found the EUR/USD interesting at the close. I think we have a "brick wall" at 1.3050, and the outside candle (albeit barely) suggests that we are about to start falling again - certainly have had a sharp enough bounce in order to justify a pullback....
Price is at a great r/r for an attempt at these shorts. Should be able to get away with a 20 pip risk or so (placed stops a few above the highs).

They just can't stop buying this pos can they?
  • #14,910
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:19pm Nov 29, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting Venice
Price is at a great r/r for an attempt at these shorts. Should be able to get away with a 20 pip risk or so (placed stops a few above the highs).

They just can't stop buying this pos can they?
It's been pretty amazing to be honest.....but then again - the whole thing (markets) seem to be a mess at this point. However, I have been cleaning up on the NADEX......
  • #14,911
  • Nov 29, 2012 11:00pm Nov 29, 2012 11:00pm
Quoting clockwork71
It's been pretty amazing to be honest.....but then again - the whole thing (markets) seem to be a mess at this point. However, I have been cleaning up on the NADEX......
Chris,
Never really understood binaries - what's the benefit over just trading spot. I looked into them a couple of times but stayed with spot in the end.
  • #14,912
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:34am Nov 30, 2012 4:34am
Quoting stewrigh
Chris,
Never really understood binaries - what's the benefit over just trading spot. I looked into them a couple of times but stayed with spot in the end.

Something is very wrong with with the whole spot Forex if I who is on NY time, stay up till 4am to trade off news, and the news doesn't move anything,any pair more than 10-15 pips on average. 35 pips is like a monster move lately. I think we need to have all news come out in the same 2-3 hour time frame so everyone who trades doesnt have to give up their life to trade. In NY, IF YOU TRADE STOCKS, NEWS COMES OUT AT EITHER 8:30AM OR 10AM AND YOUR DONE. tHAT ISNT TOO HARD TO DO in Forex, is it. (Sorry for caps.) I feel like people are just getting weary of watching a dead screen whether they are pro traders sitting in a dark office in the middle of the night somewhere, or people like us who have to get up in 2 or 3 hours and go to a regular job...... that's if we haven't lost it from constant fatigue day and night. I tell yuh, any trader who makes less than 50k a year trading is wasting his life because if you cant trade for 5 or 6 years and get out before you burn out, you wind up...................like me! It is not fun at all. Best way in the world to lose all your friends too. -(
  • #14,913
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:46am Nov 30, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Silat50
Something is very wrong with with the whole spot Forex if I who is on NY time, stay up till 4am to trade off news, and the news doesn't move anything,any pair more than 10-15 pips on average. 35 pips is like a monster move lately. I think we need to have all news come out in the same 2-3 hour time frame so everyone who trades doesnt have to give up their life to trade. In NY, IF YOU TRADE STOCKS, NEWS COMES OUT AT EITHER 8:30AM OR 10AM AND YOUR DONE. tHAT ISNT TOO HARD TO DO in Forex, is it. (Sorry for caps.) I feel like people are just getting...

Trading off the news is an almost impossible art. The computerized programs now are able to see or hear a particular word in a statement and react. By the time you have pressed the button - its too late. I would highly recommend avoiding news trading as a result. I know that most people have gotten away from it as it is so difficult. Ironically, I have been getting more and more questions about news trading lately. Could we be going back to it? I certainly hope not - its a great way to lose money.

Something else - if you are losing friends because of Forex.....its time to stop. Trust me, I don't care what kind of money you make - it simply isn't going to be worth it. I would highly recommend trading the daily charts only for a while and get back to living. Trading isn't worth it. I once heard someone say the following that I think is highly important in this situation: "We trade to live, not live to trade." I hope you think about that....

Chris
  • #14,914
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:34am Nov 30, 2012 7:34am
Quoting clockwork71
Trading off the news is an almost impossible art. The computerized programs now are able to see or hear a particular word in a statement and react. By the time you have pressed the button - its too late. I would highly recommend avoiding news trading as a result. I know that most people have gotten away from it as it is so difficult. Ironically, I have been getting more and more questions about news trading lately. Could we be going back to it? I certainly hope not - its a great way to lose money.

Something else - if you are losing friends because...
Well said Chris. Also, in the bit about news, news almost always plays into the hands of supply and demand (just quicker). I love the random spikes from news, as it will usually fill a missed zone way above/below the current price. NFP is an example that it is wonderful for this. It loves doing a fake out into the nearest supply or demand area, then rocketing off in the other direction. Or well, it use too. Now it just ends up back where it started. LOL
  • #14,915
  • Nov 30, 2012 7:37am Nov 30, 2012 7:37am
Quoting clockwork71
It's been pretty amazing to be honest.....but then again - the whole thing (markets) seem to be a mess at this point. However, I have been cleaning up on the NADEX......
Still holding on... barely. I had my stops set to the highs + 20. I hate when it takes almost a week to resolve a trade on these charts. I like to be out if I am wrong pretty quickly. lol.
  • #14,916
  • Dec 1, 2012 4:30am Dec 1, 2012 4:30am
hi, clockwork71, It's nice to have bumped into the thread and get to know you.

got a lot of info from you, i will keep going through all these stuff from beginning to the end about this thread.
  • #14,917
  • Dec 1, 2012 7:28am Dec 1, 2012 7:28am
Quoting Venice
Well said Chris. Also, in the bit about news, news almost always plays into the hands of supply and demand (just quicker). I love the random spikes from news, as it will usually fill a missed zone way above/below the current price. NFP is an example that it is wonderful for this. It loves doing a fake out into the nearest supply or demand area, then rocketing off in the other direction. Or well, it use too. Now it just ends up back where it started. LOL
Chris you make sense. But you misynderstand why I want what I want. I dont want to trade the news most of the time, but I dont want the market to go dead until it comes out either. In the last 2 weeks I had 8 positions open on average(which is very high for me) and I dont think from midnight-2am all of them changed my acct by 25 pips. I have also seen in the 1st hour of trading in the asian session to have no change other than 5 or 6 pips in my 6 trades or so after 2 hours. Proves the asian session is becoming a total waste of time. Even the 2-4 session which used to produce monster moves dont move hardly at all WITHOUT BIG NEWS!

Yes I can trade daily charts and not have to watch the market...but thats not trading, thats just having a second job. Where is the enjoyment in that?
  • #14,918
  • Dec 1, 2012 8:30am Dec 1, 2012 8:30am
Quoting Silat50
Yes I can trade daily charts and not have to watch the market...but thats not trading, thats just having a second job. Where is the enjoyment in that?
IMO, the less like work trading is... the better. As you pointed out, it is too much to trade intraday... where some days the ADR is barley over 50 pips. I usually open up 1-2 trades a week, and each daily wave is 200-500 pips so there is plenty for the taking.

Every once in a while the market does get distracted, and it barely moved (as a great example, this week). Fundies really screw up the techies when they are not aligned with each other. For instance, I am still holding onto my euro shorts because I was never stopped out (and the shorts were not invalidated). But it feels heavy of buyers and it will probably continue north. But since it is a daily play, I have to let it churn and burn for as much time as needed, which made almost all of last weekly pointless. It doesn't matter though. There is always next week, and another after that.
  • #14,919
  • Dec 3, 2012 6:19am Dec 3, 2012 6:19am
Quoting Silat50
Chris you make sense. But you misynderstand why I want what I want. I dont want to trade the news most of the time, but I dont want the market to go dead until it comes out either. In the last 2 weeks I had 8 positions open on average(which is very high for me) and I dont think from midnight-2am all of them changed my acct by 25 pips. I have also seen in the 1st hour of trading in the asian session to have no change other than 5 or 6 pips in my 6 trades or so after 2 hours. Proves the asian session is becoming a total waste of time. Even the 2-4...

A monster move is 800 pips......not 50. Besides, this isn't for a rush, which sounds like what you are looking for in my opinion.
  • #14,920
  • Dec 3, 2012 6:21am Dec 3, 2012 6:21am
What the hell?

I woke up this morning to an email that says GFT is putting my account in "close only status." It also said that they are no longer taking US clients, and that I would be transferred to one of their "valued partners" soon. I know they have enough money to be regulated in the US.....so I wonder if the regulators are squeezing them out, making it more trouble than its worth.

I have been saying this for a while - I think we are all heading to the futures market before it is all said and done. There is even a mini market at $1 a pip now.....
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