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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,241
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:13am Nov 29, 2012 9:13am
Quoting Intel
I have to go now so I will explain quickly.

Take another look at the UT. It is on volume less than the previous 2 bars. This means it is not an UT, it is a psuedo UT.
These are notoriously unreliable and should be used only with great caution. I will not use them in this type of setup.
Also, I will not use them for the setup we were discussing yesterday either (breaking the high of UT or low of SO).

Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I haven't yet found a way of narrowing down the odds.
can anyone send me the short term of all suchas up=??? ut=??...........
  • #23,242
  • Nov 29, 2012 9:47am Nov 29, 2012 9:47am
Quoting popo
can anyone send me the short term of all suchas up=??? ut=??...........
Try this..
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TG Indicators Guide v1.01[1].pdf   463 KB | 737 downloads
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,243
  • Edited 11:41am Nov 29, 2012 11:13am | Edited 11:41am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
OMG. Leave it to Intel to come in here and give us a valuable learning leason.

Quoting gez40
Not sure Intel but TG has all upper time frames blue/green so it would be against the overall trend.
Not sure about upper time frames or Trade Guider but GuideTrader is definitely showing an Up trend on the 5 min. Gavin teaches us that the highest probability trades are in harmony with the trend. You are correct.

It is true that some like to counter trend trade. (more on this later)

Quoting SimpleDev
Perhaps you did not want to short into support.
If that red line is some sort of support line, then this is a valid reason not to enter the trade. If there is some sort of support there, then one has to first assume it will hold. The reason being one needs to consider risk to reward in this case. You are correct.

Quoting KinsaleForex
The climactic bars don't really scream weakness to me, we don't even fall below 50% of the bar before printing the ND, then we don't even break the low, which has a 2BR. That's my first thought when looking at the chart anyway.
Looking at the chart below, we can see that the volume is not even considerd Ultra High. Note that it is not black (climatic and the greatest volume in 40 intervals). The volume does not even get into the salmon area which denotes volume greater than 1 standard deviation from the norm. Also note that the next interval is up. The interval after that on my platform (more on this later) is No Supply.

You are correct.

Quoting Intel
..Take another look at the UT. It is on volume less than the previous 2 bars. This means it is not an UT, it is a psuedo UT.
These are notoriously unreliable and should be used only with great caution. I will not use them in this type of setup.
Also, I will not use them for the setup we were discussing yesterday either (breaking the high of UT or low of SO).Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I haven't yet found a way of narrowing down the odds.
Very nice analysis and I certainly don't doubt your conclusion. You are correct. But I would point out that on my platform, the volume is actually increasing. Therefore for me, it is not an Up Thrust in the form of No Demand. If we change the volume then we have to change your conclusion.

Very great post. Thank you. I am glad we got many different responses. Ironically, we can conclude ALL responses were correct:

1. The trend trader would not take this trade because it goes against the trend.
2. The trader using some sort of support/resistance would not take this trade as it is directly into support. Giving an unfavorable risk to reward ratio.
3. The trader looking for a good start point of the distribution phase the "climatic" interval here is really not that climatic.
4. The counter trend trader who sees a good set-up notices that the Up Thrust is really an Up Thrust in the form of No Demand (on his platform). Knowing the reliability of these types of UTs, he passes on the set up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,244
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:14pm Nov 29, 2012 3:14pm
Quoting pres78
Exactly. Never chase a trade, never jump on board because you feel you may have missed out on a move.

[font=Verdana][color=black]Patience and a plan is key. It will happen again and again that we open our charts and see a set-up that meets our plan but it happened 4 bars ago and the trade has already triggered... many panic and say "I'm going long anyway, what's 10 pips?"... The minute we do that we are chasing the trade and ultimately breaking our own rules and not following our own plan, we are doomed...
Awsome

News flash: It's not a party of the cool kind unless you're there..............
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #23,245
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:43pm Nov 29, 2012 3:43pm
Inovator of BetterVolume indicator updated code as of 08-09-2012. Code is written for trade station. If someone is willing to code it for MT4 then code is attached...and link to website is:
http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/volume-indicator/
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Better Volume EasyLanguage 19Aug12.doc   43 KB | 708 downloads
The Market pays you to be disciplined
  • #23,246
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:40pm Nov 29, 2012 5:40pm
Quoting mima
Inovator of BetterVolume indicator updated code as of 08-09-2012. Code is written for trade station. If someone is willing to code it for MT4 then code is attached...and link to website is:
http://emini-watch.com/free-stuff/volume-indicator/
I don't use it myself but, there are many here that do. Thanks for letting us all know
  • #23,247
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:46pm Nov 29, 2012 5:46pm
Quoting HiddenGap
OMG. Leave it to Intel to come in here and give us a valuable learning leason.



Not sure about upper time frames or Trade Guider but GuideTrader is definitely showing an Up trend on the 5 min. Gavin teaches us that the highest probability trades are in harmony with the trend. You are correct.

It is true that some like to counter trend trade. (more on this later)



If that red line is some sort of support line, then this is a valid reason not to enter the trade. If there is some sort of support there, then one has to first assume it will...
I do miss learning with you

Hey at one point earlier, there were 21 traders in here, thats more than I've seen in a while. Please feel free to comment guys, experienced or not, all are welcome.
  • #23,248
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:47pm Nov 29, 2012 5:47pm
Quoting Intel
I do miss learning with you

Hey at one point earlier, there were 21 traders in here, thats more than I've seen in a while. Please feel free to comment guys, experienced or not, all are welcome.
Ooooooo there's 24 right now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #23,249
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:54pm Nov 29, 2012 5:54pm
Quoting Intel
Ooooooo there's 24 right now !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
32 my god!!
  • #23,250
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:19pm Nov 29, 2012 6:19pm
Quoting gez40
Try this..
For all you guys who are trying to learn VSA, you absolutely MUST know this book inside out.
Keep it with you while you watch the charts and try to pick out the bars and their meanings.
You need to be able to do this as second nature every time you look at a chart.
  • #23,251
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:44am Nov 30, 2012 3:44am
Quoting Intel
For all you guys who are trying to learn VSA, you absolutely MUST know this book inside out.
Keep it with you while you watch the charts and try to pick out the bars and their meanings.
You need to be able to do this as second nature every time you look at a chart.
In addition to that its important to also under stand that once you see an up-thrust or a down-thrust it means you must be ready to take a trade because a setup is building up. Also you must regularize your trading pattern to suit you using TF as a factor as well.
  • #23,252
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:46am Nov 30, 2012 3:46am
Any body trading gold should enter right now at and take profit at 1739.97, Just a little token
happy trading
  • #23,253
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:22am Nov 30, 2012 4:22am
Quoting FxAdmiraL
Any body trading gold should enter right now at and take profit at 1739.97, Just a little token
happy trading
Many thanks for that. Would you mind putting up a chart showing your VSA reasons for the trade so we can all learn.
  • #23,254
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:35am Nov 30, 2012 4:35am
Quoting Intel
Many thanks for that. Would you mind putting up a chart showing your VSA reasons for the trade so we can all learn.
From my analysis in trading I have observed that once there is an up-thrust or a down-thrust it always goes back to the beginning of that thrust that is why I set my take profit at the beginning but it should touch the high line of previous day but I am okay with the profit I should take with this trade

Also on my 4hr TF which I trade I observed that it is bullish because of effort and effect, and I have been in that trade for the past three days with over 100pips already

Effort shows professional activity to sell but it doesn't close at the tip of that down-thrust and immediately there is a next bar which is bullish showing that their was no way it would have been bearish but that the market was heading up
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  • #23,255
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:40am Nov 30, 2012 4:40am
Quoting FxAdmiraL
From my analysis in trading I have observed that once there is an up-thrust or a down-thrust it always goes back to the beginning of that thrust that is why I set my take profit at the beginning but it should touch the high line of previous day but I am okay with the profit I should take with this trade
Thanks for that.
Are there any VSA reasons for your trade?
  • #23,256
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:56am Nov 30, 2012 4:56am
Gold 1HR according to TG.

2 trades on here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,257
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:12am Nov 30, 2012 5:12am
Quoting gez40
Gold 1HR according to TG.

2 trades on here.
Correction, 7 is an upthrust....apologies
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,258
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:31am Nov 30, 2012 5:31am
Quoting gez40
Gold 1HR according to TG.

2 trades on here.
This is where software falls down. There are no reliable VSA based entries here. Sure there are signs to be read but, how you interpret the chart is all important.

In this instance, yes it works but, there are a great many times it doesn't. Also, bar 9 closes in the lower half of the bar. That is not a SO, it's just a down bar. Bar 10 they have labelled stopping volume. What has it stopped exactly? Price didn't move far on the previous bar (which had almost as much volume as this one). In fact it was the volume on the previous bar that did all the stopping. Compare the price range on the climatic bar with the range on the next bar. With about the same volume, clearly the second bars volume was intended to stop the fall in price.

A SO consists of 2 parts. Firstly a move downwards to encourage the herd to sell then, a sharp move upwards to lock in all the short holdings. In our case here, we have both parts but over 2 bars. It is fine to use a 2bar SO but, the important thing is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know if it will become a 2bar SO after only the first bar has printed.

Just to be clear, there are some traders who are happy to buy after a clamatic bar and a SO. But I don't believe they are reliable enough to make a profit long term.

There is a huge difference between knowing VSA and knowing how to use VSA to make money.
  • #23,259
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:32am Nov 30, 2012 5:32am
Quoting gez40
Gold 1HR according to TG.

2 trades on here.
Where are the 2 trades?
  • #23,260
  • Nov 30, 2012 5:47am Nov 30, 2012 5:47am
Quoting Intel

A SO consists of 2 parts. Firstly a move downwards to encourage the herd to sell then, a sharp move upwards to lock in all the short holdings. In our case here, we have both parts but over 2 bars. It is fine to use a 2bar SO but, the important thing is that it is IMPOSSIBLE to know if it will become a 2bar SO after only the first bar has printed.
One thing that made me smile when I had TG was its retrospective indicator marking. I can almost guarantee that the shakeout indicator was placed on the bar after the second part of the shakeout printed, possibly even after the bar after that printed.
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