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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #37,021
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:17pm Nov 29, 2012 3:17pm
[quote=simpleman;6246865]never cancel the order if someone is saying always use your judgement, I am just learner like all of you. Master is in the land of nod yet.
i didnt cancel my order becos of u or becos of someone suggestion.i cancel it becos i was not comfortable.i think i passed that age where i could be influence by anyone so easily.

Another point is you said 1,1,2 and then 16. Why 16 straight? now think about it, your 1 1 and 2 have very small gaps and soon after you send big 16 and price turns back immediately against you then how much will it take to rescue. But when you go with proper sequence 1,1,2,3,5,8,13 ... and every time it is new a price in your favor then you will have some foreign cap with you to exit at profit, break even or you can plan accordingly if price moves against. see my positions are very small,the whole idea is to practice the dance and make it my 2nd nature,just like driving a car.it is just that i have taken a small amount of money and leveraged it up and divided them into 20 times the scout.the idea is to see how my mind work and think loudly.i am still recovering and healing from my recent loses.this was also one of fti attack squence.let me put this like this even if the attack gone wrong and if i make my 20 scout as base and havee to rescue them and failed and have to bite the bullet,the loss i am going to suffer is not going to be more than 1%.

I don't remember if fti said anywhere that you MUST GO with full block of fib sequence i.e. 20, instead it depends on your market read. Probably your market read is good and you can go straight with 16. Think about fib spiral also.i dont think anything written in stone,everything is flexible.i dont want to become a carbon copy of fti.

Hope it helps and fti or someone can correct me if I am wrong.

Regards regard Dr.zak and god bless u with lot of green pips.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,022
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:23pm Nov 29, 2012 3:23pm
[quote=drzakir123;6246905]
Quoting simpleman
never cancel the order if someone is saying always use your judgement, I am just learner like all of you. Master is in the land of nod yet.
i didnt cancel my order becos of u or becos of someone suggestion.i cancel it becos i was not comfortable.i think i passed that age where i could be influence by anyone so easily.

Another point is you said 1,1,2 and then 16. Why 16 straight? now think about it, your 1 1 and 2 have very small gaps and soon after you send big 16 and price turns back immediately...
1% is good but try not to have fixed %
  • #37,023
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:30pm Nov 29, 2012 3:30pm
Hi simpleman


yes, if market is swinging to the rhythm and you are in tune with it then be confident if not be wary in case the beat changes.


btw thanks (again) Fti for all that is here, it saved me today (again) was blind (not in tune) this morning and initially wrong direction (my fault, I missed something obvious that I should have seen), patience and strategy put me in profit though, something I learnt from this thread.


Good night all


regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #37,024
  • Edited 4:58pm Nov 29, 2012 3:32pm | Edited 4:58pm
[quote=simpleman;6246917][quote=drzakir123;6246905]

1% is good but try not to have fixed %

oh no,i am extremely flexible and i can bury the whole position with scout if i dont feel safe,even before 1%mark is hit. it will be my decision not of market or broker. regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,025
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:09pm Nov 29, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting fti

PSS: Plus I am a very very heavy smoker, that's the one that will probably switch off my lights.
(from page 4 of this thread)

- fyi,

selenium, vitamin E, and vitamin A will (according to research studies) put your chance of
lung cancer below that of a non-smoker who does not take supplemental selenium (400 mcg),
vitamin E (800 IU), and vitamin A (15,000iu retinol (the activated Vit A), plus 25,000iu beta-
carotene (Vit A precursor)).

of course, non-smoking plus the supplements are even better...
realize the universe is one thing, and attach it to your body
  • #37,026
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:16am Nov 30, 2012 3:16am
Quoting buddhi
(from page 4 of this thread)

- fyi,

selenium, vitamin E, and vitamin A will (according to research studies) put your chance of
lung cancer below that of a non-smoker who does not take supplemental selenium (400 mcg),
vitamin E (800 IU), and vitamin A (15,000iu retinol (the activated Vit A), plus 25,000iu beta-
carotene (Vit A precursor)).

of course, non-smoking plus the supplements are even better...
welcome to the thread.
i already off smoking.
because needles resort forbid it.
so after long time of being off , was easier not needed it.
but coffee evil is still practised, when i returned here.

You advicement is noted.
Only i not know how get the stuff off natural food. I not like poping pills mostly.
esp selenium.

lung is still ok, probably not optimum but is not giving any problems yet
I usually not breathing on lungs.
Thru my dantian.

but i feel tired all the time now.
probably need a party get my energies back.

again, Welcome.

regards
  • #37,027
  • Edited 3:34am Nov 30, 2012 3:22am | Edited 3:34am
Took a look at the charts.
i noticed markets euro and currencies are very bid.
and chf is about fall offthe cliff.
so not be to adventurous on shorts esp euro, unless have news that cracks it.
otherwise is sideways to higher.

regards

Inserted Video
  • #37,028
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:42am Nov 30, 2012 3:42am
Quoting fti
welcome to the thread.
i already off smoking.
because needles resort forbid it.
so after long time of being off , was easier not needed it.
but coffee evil is still practised, when i returned here.

You advicement is noted.
Only i not know how get the stuff off natural food. I not like poping pills mostly.
esp selenium.

lung is still ok, probably not optimum but is not giving any problems yet
I usually not breathing on lungs.
Thru my dantian.

but i feel tired all the time now.
probably need a party get my energies back.

again,...
How much did you smoke? I'm curious as I was also a heavy smoker. Been off them for about a year now.
  • #37,029
  • Edited 9:19am Nov 30, 2012 8:45am | Edited 9:19am
Quoting Rabid Leper
How much did you smoke? I'm curious as I was also a heavy smoker. Been off them for about a year now.
What type of question is that?
Just 1 too many, is too many.

and please don't you ask how much coffee i drink.
Don't know, never counted.

regards

careful is friday fiascos or will be dead fish markets.
not seems much markets, so please be careful.
no commit to anypositions that cannot revenge.

but seems little bird are on the money about the bulls.
so was not bullshitting.
Lots battling but only still sustaining 1.3
and i not know how much ammo they have.
  • #37,030
  • Edited 10:27am Nov 30, 2012 10:09am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting fti
What type of question is that?
Just 1 too many, is too many.

and please don't you ask how much coffee i drink.
Don't know, never counted.

regards

careful is friday fiascos or will be dead fish markets.
not seems much markets, so please be careful.
no commit to anypositions that cannot revenge.

but seems little bird are on the money about the bulls.
so was not bullshitting.
Lots battling but only still sustaining 1.3
and i not know how much ammo they have.
hi,fti when i am taking north train its going south and taking south its going north.anyway able to protect my book.fti did u see my posting/blotter from yesterday.
also how come we spend more time on defense side than attack.is this something to do with our psychological requirement that we feel more comfortable defending,if ur in loss it give one a hope of regaining ones loses.do human being live for excitement and adventure.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,031
  • Edited 8:16pm Nov 30, 2012 11:31am | Edited 8:16pm
Quoting drzakir123
hi,fti when i am taking north train its going south and taking south its going north.anyway able to protect my book.fti did u see my posting/blotter from yesterday.
also how come we spend more time on defense side than attack.is this something to do with our psychological requirement that we feel more comfortable defending,if ur in loss it give one a hope of regaining ones loses.do human being live for excitement and adventure.
Hi Dr,
nope did not see any blotter.
is dangerous posting blotter in the open.

oh defense is very critical.
big boys are making the market.
is their playground.
so if there's no trades going on
they will not hesitate take you for a ride find your stops.
computers nowadays can monitor just about everyone.
You see, when you trade you need have acounterparty.
so they see exactly what you doing, because what ever you do, hits their blotters.

Don't be mistaken that there is alot happening in markets all the time.
infact, lots market makers sit doing nothing but waiting for business.
interbank quotes screen at 10 pips spreads.
so brokers can quote you anywhere inside that try get your business.
if they have algos shade you you going have pay 5 to 8 pips getting in and out of positions
sometimes days range is only 50 to 70 pips
if they capture victims can be 100to 130 pips.
otherwise big news hitting the market then is hard to trade against you.
but even with directional bias, also can shade you about 10 pips.
so no go play the small gain pips game.
trade with the trend.

regards


interbank not bothered about small trades mostly.
their tickets large.(from min 2 million usd to i used to be able make prices for 200 million 1 price)
But since i retired, have new breed in markets of retail market makers.
they have all sorts MO scalp nervous traders, i heard.
To me broking and market making is a conflict of interest.
But no one interbank is going make you prices for less than 2 million usd.
so if small traders not trade with market making bro, then where small money going get prices?
probably only from syndicates of betting houses? aka bucket shops.
Did you notice that the shading gets rediculous the larger your trades become?
these days with computer tecq, mostly all can be tracked.
Probably all goes to same pond.
So if you canget to interbank , would be more market.
but the interbank boys have a touch of arragance as always.

Like today is thin markets.
nothing much is going on and is near year end.
so lots scalping going on.
ducks in 20 to 30 pips range is easy picking.
  • #37,032
  • Nov 30, 2012 11:49am Nov 30, 2012 11:49am
Quoting fti
Hi Dr,
nope did not see any blotter.
is dangerous posting blotter in the open.

oh defense is very critical.
big boys are making the market.
is their playground.
so if there's no trades going on
they will not hesitate take you for a ride find your stops.
computers nowadays can monitor just about everyone.
You see, when you trade you need have acounterparty.
so they see exactly what you doing, because what ever you do, hits their blotters.

Don't be mistaken that there is alot happening in markets all the time.
infact, lots dealers sit doing nothing...
thank u fti,its a very important post,now i understand how brokers really shade the price becos they have advantage of 10 pips to play against us,so that means if anyone leveraging more than 5 times is asking for trouble really.i always thought the spread we are seeing is of intermarket spread but obviously as ur saying that not so.also is that the reason as well that i have immediatley after taking the position many a time price go against me 8 to 10 pips.when u were in retail market what the safe leverage u used?
is retail trading losing game for small fish like us?
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #37,033
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:50pm Nov 30, 2012 4:50pm
Quoting fti
What type of question is that?
Just 1 too many, is too many.

and please don't you ask how much coffee i drink.
Don't know, never counted.

regards

careful is friday fiascos or will be dead fish markets.
not seems much markets, so please be careful.
no commit to anypositions that cannot revenge.

but seems little bird are on the money about the bulls.
so was not bullshitting.
Lots battling but only still sustaining 1.3
and i not know how much ammo they have.
I was wondering how many packs per day. I probably averaged around 2 packs per day.

I realize now that you probably would not like to talk/think about this, sorry.
  • #37,034
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:38pm Nov 30, 2012 6:38pm
Quoting Rabid Leper
I was wondering how many packs per day. I probably averaged around 2 packs per day.

I realize now that you probably would not like to talk/think about this, sorry.


regards
  • #37,035
  • Edited 7:44pm Nov 30, 2012 6:50pm | Edited 7:44pm
Quoting drzakir123
thank u fti,its a very important post,now i understand how brokers really shade the price becos they have advantage of 10 pips to play against us,so that means if anyone leveraging more than 5 times is asking for trouble really.i always thought the spread we are seeing is of intermarket spread but obviously as ur saying that not so.also is that the reason as well that i have immediatley after taking the position many a time price go against me 8 to 10 pips.when u were in retail market what the safe leverage u used?
is retail trading losing game...

no Dr
I think you mistaken.
you not understand because you not understand the difference of what is known as derivative markets.
Most retail trading believes that they are trading Forex, the underlying instrument.
In fact all are only trading the derivative market of the foreign exchange markets.

The structure of derivative markets is by design, unable to affect the underlying.
So even if you traded a trillion dollars, will not move the market 1 pip.
You see the real markets is in interbank spot forex,
When you trade the derivative, the trade does not go to the interbank markets.
The derivative markets will never impact the interbank spot because
1. The interbank markets is like any real market where by demand and supply moves it.
2. Your ticket sizes are not markettable in interbank.

Many traders think that they retails can move the market.
This is not true.
Chasing prices is not good MO, because unless its moving in the interbank, even if collectively the retail players buy 1 trillion dollars.
it will not move the interbank. Only thing that will happen is those who market made you prices will be betting 1 trillion against you.
And they only have risk, if the interbank prices moves against them. Otherwise is just the market place have a 1 trillion bet that the prices will move their way.

For example.
If anything if there were large bets chasing markets down. Then is most likely that the players will try push interbank up as much as they can to trigger the stops so that the betting risk against them gets defused.

In the spot interbank markets, price moves are real.
This is because the banks and financial instittions trading, they have to deliver the said goods,
in this case the currencies, valued 2 days from the transaction date.
So if you bought euros against dollars.
You would be required to instruct your bank , deliever the usd ammount to your counterparty.
and you would have to have facilities in your bank receive the Euros that you bought.
all this is to do delivered wiithin 2 working days.

So for deravative markets, no such thing takes place.
You cannot buy euros, and expect to take delivery of anything.
Because by contract, you only can get paid in the base denomination that you had deposited.
and if you have positions, you cannot even withdrwal your deposits.

You see the buckets, they not make money from trading.
they make money from the interest from customer deposits,with a few % points haircut added to both buyers and sellers.
and they get interest for the deposits from the banks where they place the funds.

So if 50% of the readers were buyers andd 50% of traders were sellers.
effectively they have no exposure risk.
and takes deposits from both for margins which they deposit in banks.

So for effective trading, one need know the fundementals and book sentiment at the underlying markets to be effective.

The prices of derivative will always be near where the underlying insruments are trading. But with a basis.
Basis is the differential of the price between the underlying instrument and the derivative instrument.
In commodities, they take the form of cost of storage, transportation and perishable maintainance cost.
In currenciesis basically interest rates.

The more arbitrageing that goes on between the interbank spot prices, the smaller will be the basis.
But unless sizes about 10 million usd, theres not any one i know who wants arbitrage the markets.
Is not cost effective to do so.

regards

This the reason why one need understand the structure of markets, and their characteristics to tailor effective tradinng straegies.
  • #37,036
  • Nov 30, 2012 6:58pm Nov 30, 2012 6:58pm
Quoting fti

no Dr
I think you mistaken.
you not understand because you not understand the difference of what is known as derivative markets.
Most retail trading believes that they are trading Forex, the underlying instrument.
In fact all are only trading the derivative market of the foreign exchange markets.

The structure of derivative markets is by design, unable to affect the underlying.
So even if you traded a trillion dollars, will not move the market 1 pip.
What weekend plan chief?

V
  • #37,037
  • Edited 8:20pm Nov 30, 2012 7:36pm | Edited 8:20pm
Quoting indianguyinny24
What weekend plan chief?

V
Complete rest in bed (CRIB)
But if have any friends visit me, may do a tea ceremony.
If enemies come, i need get the goon squards in defence formation.

Maybe some music.
But i need the IT men get my computers up.
some hackers attacked 2 of my systems, killed their harddisk, yesterday.
Is hard relax listen to music with peeps walking about.


regards
  • #37,038
  • Edited 8:25pm Nov 30, 2012 7:57pm | Edited 8:25pm
Quoting drzakir123
thank u fti,its a very important post,now i understand how brokers really shade the price becos they have advantage of 10 pips to play against us,so that means if anyone leveraging more than 5 times is asking for trouble really.i always thought the spread we are seeing is of intermarket spread but obviously as ur saying that not so.also is that the reason as well that i have immediatley after taking the position many a time price go against me 8 to 10 pips.when u were in retail market what the safe leverage u used?
is retail trading losing game...
interbank prices differ from bank to bank and zone to zone.
Is the factor of how their blotters looks like that different zones and banks will shade prices.
There is no 1 price.
only a range. and 10 pips should be able contain most of what interbanks are quoting each other, under normal conditions.
When that band moves. Something in on the ground is driving it. Mostly is not retail positions.
So is not wise chase, need strategies and money managing.


Is same as medical cost Dr.
There is a general price.
And can differ from place to place due to local conditions.
Only that forex moves more, driven by international trades of merchandising of goods and servvices.



regards
  • #37,039
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:40pm Nov 30, 2012 8:40pm
Quoting fti
interbank prices differ from bank to bank and zone to zone.
Is the factor of how their blotters looks like that different zones and banks will shade prices.
There is no 1 price.
only a range. and 10 pips should be able contain most of what interbanks are quoting each other, under normal conditions.
When that band moves. Something in on the ground is driving it. Mostly is not retail positions.
So is not wise chase, need strategies and money managing.


Is same as medical cost Dr.
There is a general price.
And can differ from place to place...
Specialist units MO

Inserted Video
  • #37,040
  • Nov 30, 2012 8:58pm Nov 30, 2012 8:58pm
Quoting jacson101
Specialist units MO

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XcN12uVHeQ
: )jack

hi hi friend.
ai ya, nice lighting.

ai ya , i not seems getting any good feel of the markets lately.
Peeps avoiding me , like the plague, for my own good.
I keep telling them is my call, so no need be worried.
But no one wants listen.

So is gonna be no "party christmas" for me this year.
Worst than last year.

nice see you.
have a good one.

tea or coffee, my friend?
"seep hot coffee, seep hot tea,
burn yee lips and remember me."
Me no choice, have seep asprins with my coffee or tea.


regards
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