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  • #141
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:16am Nov 30, 2012 1:16am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Ok so near miss for me and a pefect example of trading carefully. This is also why negative news release doesn't always have the desired effect on it's nation currency. Is this a spike as a result of emotion? Now we wait
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  • #142
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:22am Nov 30, 2012 1:22am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Sure thing. Does this show it to you?

The AO is remaining low (even now with the recent spike) while price forms new highs

Quoting ed1705
Can you please show the divergence on the char? I don't see it.
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  • #143
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:25am Nov 30, 2012 1:25am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Should stand to reason that price pushes off the 1.30 level due to the news release. Sometimes the exact opposite can and does happen


10:00am EUR German Retail Sales m/m -2.8% -0.3% 0.5%

  • #144
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:28am Nov 30, 2012 1:28am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Will be interesting how the latest candle finishes
  • #145
  • Nov 30, 2012 1:47am Nov 30, 2012 1:47am
While you boast high accuracy, I can't help but wonder something. What does a gartley actually mean "behind the charts"? Like, what's happening in the physical world for this "pattern" to come out? Or on any of the indicators.

You say "learn to draw fib", but can you explain what's actually going on in the real world? I think most people don't understand the fib idea at it's very core, which is, more often than not, a way to maximize something like sunlight for leaves. I see a wave, and I try to think of who's trying to maximize their profits while minimizing their losses. This, in turn, leads me to believe their are certain types of waves that should be analyzed before the "fib" points are applied. (If you put a fib down, look at what brought price to the first point you have selected.)
Play the players, not the cards.
  • #146
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:22am Nov 30, 2012 2:22am
Quoting Erebus
To be fair, you need to compare apples to apples, the average losing trade is 385.07 and the average winning trade is 145.24 giving a ratio of 2.65 - not as bad as the 5 times you highlighted.

The single, large loss maybe attributed to a news event perhaps; eliminating that, the other 3 losses would average 272.59, bringing the ratio down to 1.88.

With the win / loss ratio of over 90%, there may still be some hope, don't you think?

Perhaps, as you mention, the sample size may be too small to gain a significant understand of this "style"...
Sure, 9er's method may well prove to be profitable and he is putting everything out there so not a criticism of him at all. It just amazes me that the first few pages none of the posters mentioned the sample size and large loss versus average win, either they didn't notice or just don't realise the significance. So many people are ready to jump on the guru wagon without a second thought. Just want to make sure people know what they are looking at behind the impressive equity curve.

I hope 9er is profitable. People make money in alot of different ways, but a loss of 5 average wins in one trade rings alarm bells for me and that is in only 48 trades, so hardly a worst case scenario.
  • #147
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:30am Nov 30, 2012 2:30am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
While I do concur with your premise here - I think some level of self education is very important - which is what I am hoping to accomplish. I want a thread that is de-void of these types of posts and encourage posts that enduce "awareness" that one should educate themselves.

As I said in Post #1 I am not trying to be boastful. you think I am not aware that posting my actual trades leaves me WIDE open to criticism? Absolutley it does - the underlying message I am SCREAMING is "teach yourself some knowledge".

I also admitted to not being the expert. Would appreciate some feedback myself, not condescending criticism, and I will thank you to leave it at the door if that is all you have to contribute.

Quoting GnarlyPips
While you boast high accuracy, I can't help but wonder something. What does a gartley actually mean "behind the charts"? Like, what's happening in the physical world for this "pattern" to come out? Or on any of the indicators.

You say "learn to draw fib", but can you explain what's actually going on in the real world? I think most people don't understand the fib idea at it's very core, which is, more often than not, a way to maximize something like sunlight for leaves. I see a wave, and I try to think of who's trying to maximize...
  • #148
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:41am Nov 30, 2012 2:41am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
ok kids - this is the LAST time I am going to say this. Speculate all you want but the intention of this thread to create a learning environment, not one that introduces doubt into peoples mind that are here to learn.

one more post to this nature and I will take this thread down. I have been trading live and making a living off it for the last 3 years. I was perfectly content doing so all by myself. My style has earned me a seat in the 5% club, an accomplishment that I happen to be very proud of.

I was not afforded the opportunity to "pick someone's brain" when I was up and coming. I dug and I learned and I absobed. I put together a series of styles, indicators oscillators that work for me. Coupled with the wherewithal that I needed to change my mentality and everything clicked and has been for 3 years now.

unbelievable. Trying to help and defend at the same time is an aggravation I don't need. This is my day job folks, I have a house and a family to feed. If me trying to genuinly help others, offends the masses, please make one more post like you have. I will never be seen arounf FF ever again.

One last thing: what I am doing here is often thought of as a paid service. A canned website with a message of false hope and smashed dreams. I am here "In person" offering help because I am a sincere and humble person. Help me or GET THE HELL OUT and STAY OUT
  • #149
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:49am Nov 30, 2012 2:49am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Okay what gnarly pips was saying I want to ask you to completely ignore. Sure there is an indepth view and knowledge of such things. But I am assuming that there will be some level of effort on your part to learn what I don't have time to teach you, the intricacies of our indicators.

You know what they say "You can lead a horse to water, but can't teach him to drink"

Well I can lead you to knowledge, but the level of effort for obtaining it sits squarely on your shoulders. I am here to help

I have banned both of the parties that attempted to introduce doubt to your minds
  • #150
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:52am Nov 30, 2012 2:52am
Hey 9er

You are doing an amazing job that has captivated many a trader as u can see by the amount of people always viewing ur thread
People will always want to challenge an opinion it's in some people's nature
Lets ignore the critics and concentrate on a collaborative education curve for everyone

Thank u for your time an efforts

Over and out
  • #151
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:57am Nov 30, 2012 2:57am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Very interesting. The spike did nothing to the AO other than exentuate the divergence. The question now is, has 1.30 been broken?
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  • #152
  • Nov 30, 2012 2:58am Nov 30, 2012 2:58am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Dendio - Lima Charlie! I banned them both. Thank you by the way

Quoting dendio
Hey 9er

You are doing an amazing job that has captivated many a trader as u can see by the amount of people always viewing ur thread
People will always want to challenge an opinion it's in some people's nature
Lets ignore the critics and concentrate on a collaborative education curve for everyone

Thank u for your time an efforts

Over and out
  • #153
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:33am Nov 30, 2012 3:33am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Here's an example of an up fractal that I chose to ignore (a buy signal). While it is the first fractal outside the mouth, there were 3 other reasons I didn't take it:

1. The AO divergence

2. The RSI reading

3. The failure to break 1.30

My quandry was that the inverted candle associated with the fractal was bearish divergent, but also not very prominent (indicating reversal). I was 25% sure that fractal was valid, and 75% sure it was not. The minority wins this one.

Always good to weigh all your options - put these indicators against each other, make them work. The norm is to go with the majority, going with the minority to me is an unneccesary gamble. If that news release doesn't occur, does this spike happen? I am 75% sure it does not
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  • #154
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:36am Nov 30, 2012 3:36am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
My sell stop is still in place incidentally. I am watching the 1.30 level and contemplating moving it up.
  • #155
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:42am Nov 30, 2012 3:42am
Hi 9er,

first of all, nice thread and nice ideas. I have a question to the AO. Do you just use it to see divergences or ist there another thing you read out of it?

Keep on posting!
  • #156
  • Nov 30, 2012 3:57am Nov 30, 2012 3:57am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Wonder if the Euro can handle any more negative economic news releases - we'll find out in 3 minutes one way or the other
  • #157
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:04am Nov 30, 2012 4:04am
Quoting havaiana
Sure, 9er's method may well prove to be profitable and he is putting everything out there so not a criticism of him at all. It just amazes me that the first few pages none of the posters mentioned the sample size and large loss versus average win, either they didn't notice or just don't realise the significance. So many people are ready to jump on the guru wagon without a second thought. Just want to make sure people know what they are looking at behind the impressive equity curve.

I hope 9er is profitable. People make money in alot of different...
Hava, 9er has so much more patience than me, he must be almost a saint. He very ,very carefully explained how that big loss came about, and if he was trying to hide it, I'm sure he could. I myself have taken the wrong side of a trade in Forex pairs more times than in futures and stocks put together. It is because your brain is handling 2 instruments at once and you actually must set a short and a buy in every trade you do. Yes it can be confusing for all but the sharpest and most experienced traders. If this never happened to you, then you've never traded spot Forex. Also, notice how many hours 9er is posting here for us. Seems like he is either posting or trading 20 hrs a day. Very few people in the world can be sharp 20 hrs out of a day. (Thats why they invented coffee. LOL) Other than that one thing, I havent caught 9'er saying anything incorrect or misleading. We are lucky to have him sharing the good stuff with us! Bravo!
  • #158
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:11am Nov 30, 2012 4:11am
9'er may I ask when you said you didn't take that trade for 3 reasons. If those reasons are not there to not take a trade and all indicators line up, and you like the last candle, no resistance in the way, can you take the trade even if it doesnt form a Gartley or Butterfly or fractal pattern?

And to my Forex brothers on this thread, may I suggest, if you aren't sure if what you are going to say might be taken the wrong way, maybe its better to stay silent. This thread is going to grow to monstrous size soon and we need only the steak, lets trim the fat. Right boys!!!!? LOL What I think 9'er is saying in a very nice way is, "If you have any doubts about him or his method, thats ok, just keep them to yourself."
  • #159
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:17am Nov 30, 2012 4:17am
Quoting Silat50
9'er may I ask when you said you didn't take that trade for 3 reasons. If those reasons are not there to not take a trade and all indicators line up, and you like the last candle, no resistance in the way, can you take the trade even if it doesnt form a Gartley or Butterfly or fractal pattern?

And to my Forex brothers on this thread, may I suggest, if you aren't sure if what you are going to say might be taken the wrong way, maybe its better to stay silent. This thread is going to grow to monstrous size soon and we need only the steak, lets trim...
I second this and be thankful - you are getting this for free and in a very perspective manner by someone that is prepared to help other people.

I am buying a hat to salute you 9ER.

John from Durban
  • #160
  • Nov 30, 2012 4:19am Nov 30, 2012 4:19am
  •  9er
  • | Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Please tell me it's impossible | 732 Posts
Silat - yes I would take the trade. Gartley patterns (some) are actually failed ABCD patterns in some capacity (breaks one of the rules for a valid ABCD). If my indicators would have all lined up to take that fractal trade - you bet your butt I take that trade 10 times out of 10 times. I remove human emotion and trust the indicators to their core. Does this answer your question?

Thank you by the way for the nice words.

Quoting Silat50
9'er may I ask when you said you didn't take that trade for 3 reasons. If those reasons are not there to not take a trade and all indicators line up, and you like the last candle, no resistance in the way, can you take the trade even if it doesnt form a Gartley or Butterfly or fractal pattern?

And to my Forex brothers on this thread, may I suggest, if you aren't sure if what you are going to say might be taken the wrong way, maybe its better to stay silent. This thread is going to grow to monstrous size soon and we need only the steak, lets trim...
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