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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,221
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:06am Nov 29, 2012 4:06am
Quoting Gxp1
i didnt take this trade- it was just hypothetical but if sl is placed above uy(much sensible) then thats fine, for placing above nd(riskier place) it would be out
Thats right. For this type of setup, the SL should be at UT high + 2 pips for best results. Of course, if that doesn't fit with your style, you should make your own mind up. But, if you put it at the ND high, you will be stopped out most of the time.
  • #23,222
  • Nov 29, 2012 4:38am Nov 29, 2012 4:38am
Quoting Gxp1
The only problem is that after the upthurst, i would have placed sell limit on the low of the fourth bar(up bar) which looks like no demand and be in.only to later get stopped out if the SL was on the high.However 2nd attempt after ND would have been ok
I guess this is where the right tools come in handy.

Look at the chart again with TG, the no demand you looked at did`nt get picked up but even if it did the short term trending system is still blue so would you have taken a short there? The next ND (3) is a better one, ok the diamonds are still green but they are a medium term trend, the short term has now changed to red we get a ND with major weakness in the background.

GH talks a lot about waiting for price to change behaviour before taking a position.

It`s easy looking at a chart after the event but that`s all i can do for now.
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Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,223
  • Nov 29, 2012 5:18am Nov 29, 2012 5:18am
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
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  • #23,224
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:06am Nov 29, 2012 6:06am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
Not sure Intel but TG has all upper time frames blue/green so it would be against the overall trend.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,225
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:08am Nov 29, 2012 6:08am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
Perhaps you did not want to short into support.
  • #23,226
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:11am Nov 29, 2012 6:11am
Quoting gez40
Not sure Intel but TG has all upper time frames blue/green so it would be against the overall trend.
I wouldn't know about that, I don't have TG.
Many of the trades I take are against the trend and this one has all of the componant parts of a good setup.
However, there is no way I would take the trade.
  • #23,227
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:20am Nov 29, 2012 6:20am
Quoting SimpleDev
Perhaps you did not want to short into support.
When the setup is complete, I will take it no matter where it is.........almost!

It was not stopping me this time.
  • #23,228
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:41am Nov 29, 2012 6:41am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
Because the longer time frames did not have a climatic bar?
  • #23,229
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:44am Nov 29, 2012 6:44am
Nice to see some life here again... Intel it's great to have you back in the mix, you have been missed.

So as not to be left out of the cool kids party I am sharing a few random thoughts on using my daily chart. No point in particular but I am a big beleiver that VSA works no matter the TF. You just need to figure out how it works for you to suit your plan and MM style. I love HG's saying that we need to see what we want to see, where we want to see it.

For me the where is easy. I use VZA (volume zone analysis for those that aren't familair with my ramblings). I put fibs on the UHV bars making them zones with a H, 50% and L and trade VSA entries into these levels based on background, recent PA and whom I have tagged as the zone owner. The what obviously is VSA bars like tests, ND's and NS's to name a few into the zones.

Now looking at my daily chart the High of the November 7th daily bar (3rd red line) and low of September 14th daily bar (first red line) is the current battle ground. These are the two of the more recent UHV daily zones on my chart and have been serving their purpose well over the past days. Yesterday was a nice SO down into the low zone. Should be a nice SOS for a push back into that September 14th bar which has capped all unmoves so far since it printed.

No matter the TF the zones work and can help predict where turns in the market may happen and where SM will most likely be active. There was a nice test right into a super UHV zone high 10 trading days ago. Tested right into the zone high (blue line), made the lowest low of the previous 3 days (including the test bar day) and closed well off the low on volume lower than the previous 2.

I did not trade this as I do not do much trading on anything higher than 1hr as I am first and formost an intraday trader.

Still it's all there and it all works.
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Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,230
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:45am Nov 29, 2012 6:45am
Quoting lx384
Because the longer time frames did not have a climatic bar?
I'm quite happy to trade off 1 TF.
  • #23,231
  • Nov 29, 2012 6:50am Nov 29, 2012 6:50am
Quoting pres78
Nice to see some life here again... Intel it's great to have you back in the mix, you have been missed.

So as not to be left out of the cool kids party I am sharing a few random thoughts on using my daily chart. No point in particular but I am a big beleiver that VSA works no matter the TF. You just need to figure out how it works for you to suit your plan and MM style. I love HG's saying that we need to see what we want to see, where we want to see it.

For me the where is easy. I use VZA (volume zone analysis for those that aren't familair...

Rock and a Hard place like it.
  • #23,232
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:00am Nov 29, 2012 7:00am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
I have to go now so I will explain quickly.

Take another look at the UT. It is on volume less than the previous 2 bars. This means it is not an UT, it is a psuedo UT.
These are notoriously unreliable and should be used only with great caution. I will not use them in this type of setup.
Also, I will not use them for the setup we were discussing yesterday either (breaking the high of UT or low of SO).

Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I haven't yet found a way of narrowing down the odds.
  • #23,233
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:03am Nov 29, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
Let me try again lol.

I was watching it just now and I did not take a short too.

My reasoning

1) No buying climax into an area of supply. 2989-3000
2) If a proper down move was to happen, I would expect a longer distribution phase.
3) Longer time frame bars are up
  • #23,234
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:06am Nov 29, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Intel
I have to go now so I will explain quickly.

Take another look at the UT. It is on volume less than the previous 2 bars. This means it is not an UT, it is a psuedo UT.
These are notoriously unreliable and should be used only with great caution. I will not use them in this type of setup.
Also, I will not use them for the setup we were discussing yesterday either (breaking the high of UT or low of SO).

Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. I haven't yet found a way of narrowing down the odds.
which upthrust are you talking about? Is it the stop loss bar?
  • #23,235
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:10am Nov 29, 2012 7:10am
Quoting lx384
which upthrust are you talking about? Is it the stop loss bar?
The third red vertical line on his chart.
Today's zone = Tomorrow's opportunity!
  • #23,236
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:11am Nov 29, 2012 7:11am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
The climactic bars don't really scream weakness to me, we don't even fall below 50% of the bar before printing the ND, then we don't even break the low, which has a 2BR. That's my first thought when looking at the chart anyway.
  • #23,237
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:15am Nov 29, 2012 7:15am
Quoting Intel
Why didn't I take this sell trade?
I think although ther is upthurst the volume is low just making the average therefore since we are in uptrend this would mean SM is not active, in fact the next bar of similar range closing on low but much higher vol indicates buying coming in.The next peak we have another UT again with low vol infact looking more like ND meaning SM is looking for better buying opportunity and again we see anothe ND possibly offering another entry but i would keep sl tight. Are these your reasonings as well?
  • #23,238
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:21am Nov 29, 2012 7:21am
Quoting gez40
I guess this is where the right tools come in handy.

Look at the chart again with TG, the no demand you looked at did`nt get picked up but even if it did the short term trending system is still blue so would you have taken a short there? The next ND (3) is a better one, ok the diamonds are still green but they are a medium term trend, the short term has now changed to red we get a ND with major weakness in the background.

GH talks a lot about waiting for price to change behaviour before taking a position.

It`s easy looking at a chart after...
Yeah- the ND would be meaningless as its appearing near support and in any case this would be poor R:R entry
  • #23,239
  • Nov 29, 2012 7:27am Nov 29, 2012 7:27am
Quoting pres78
Nice to see some life here again... Intel it's great to have you back in the mix, you have been missed.

So as not to be left out of the cool kids party I am sharing a few random thoughts on using my daily chart. No point in particular but I am a big beleiver that VSA works no matter the TF. You just need to figure out how it works for you to suit your plan and MM style. I love HG's saying that we need to see what we want to see, where we want to see it.

For me the where is easy. I use VZA (volume zone analysis for those that aren't familair...
Another example demonstrating that we should let the trade come to us rather than chase them-The R:R is a lot better
  • #23,240
  • Nov 29, 2012 8:48am Nov 29, 2012 8:48am
Quoting Gxp1
Another example demonstrating that we should let the trade come to us rather than chase them-The R:R is a lot better
Exactly. Never chase a trade, never jump on board because you feel you may have missed out on a move.

Patience and a plan is key. It will happen again and again that we open our charts and see a set-up that meets our plan but it happened 4 bars ago and the trade has already triggered... many panic and say "I'm going long anyway, what's 10 pips?"... The minute we do that we are chasing the trade and ultimately breaking our own rules and not following our own plan, we are doomed as traders. If you aren't there to take the set-up then wait for the next one, there will ALWAYS be a next one.

In trading we have the herd and the SM. We by using VSA are attempting to separate ourselves from the herd to be one with the SM. The SM are merely shepherds whom guide their herds however they see fit. They would not think twice of leading us all the way to the top of a mountain just to let us fall off the edge to our death... SM were taking us higher so of course we bought but were blind to the increasing effort in the SM steps as they got higher and higher. The trail got worse and the climb was harder so SM let us go on ahead just to plummet to our untimely demise... we didn't even hit the bottom and SM had already made it half way back down the mountain... path of least resistance and what not.

Myself I prefer to stay hidden. Blend in with the herd because let's face it I don't have near enough money to be a shepherd... only SM can afford the required hooded shall and curved walking sticks. I am but a wolf in sheep’s clothing who likes to stay at the back of the pack watching SM very closely. As they start to fall back allowing the herd to lead I know change is coming and I will be right there when it happens. Oh and when I get hungry enough I have no problem feasting on one of my herd. For every winner there is a loser in this market.

From herd to hunter thanks to VSA.
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