Sharing: I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through | Forex Factory

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Sharing: I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 28, 2012 3:03am Nov 28, 2012 3:03am
I open this thread for traders at different stages to share their experience, so that traders with rich experience can help traders with less experience.

The stage "I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through" is a stage on the journey in which a trader already done a lot of work but they haven't achieve consistency.

Some of the questions related to this stage are:
How to pass through this stage to achieve consistency?
How do you know your method works when you haven't achieve consistency?
etc.

Anyone is happy to share some of your experience related to this stage?
  • #2
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:01am Nov 28, 2012 8:01am
Quoting kk007
How do you know your method works when you haven't achieve consistency?
etc.
Forward testing?
.
  • #3
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:11am Nov 28, 2012 8:11am
Quoting nasir.khan
Forward testing?
.
Thanks for replying.
Assuming you are not using EA, forward testing is demoing and it involves a lot of manual judgement.
Is it obvious to know whether the method works?
  • #4
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:43am Nov 28, 2012 8:43am
I got this link from a good friend of mine and I would like to share it here. It has been very helpful.

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...raders-profits

Also, you should know that:

 

  1. You are not alone. We have all gone through this before. You're not special, so don't think the world is against you. Don't quit!
  2. Take it slow and simple. Don't try to double your account in a day. It will take years to perfect your methods, especially in today's markets.
  3. Once you have confidence in yourself and your trading methods and stop looking here for the answer, you're almost there!
  4. It is all about Price Action (PA) and simple trading. All indicators are nothing more than a mathematical representations of Price. You can already see the price right there on your chart!

Best of luck to all! Happy trading!

  • #5
  • Nov 28, 2012 8:44am Nov 28, 2012 8:44am
Quoting Orly
I got this link from a good friend of mine and I would like to share it here. It has been very helpful.

http://www.learntotradethemarket.com...raders-profits

Also, you should know that:

[list][*]You are not alone. We have all gone through this before. You're not special, so don't think the world is against you. Don't quit![*]Take it slow and simple. Don't try to double your account in a day. It will take years to perfect your methods,...
Good sharing! Cheers!
Thanks a lot for your sincere reply!
  • #6
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:05am Nov 28, 2012 9:05am
Quoting kk007
...The stage "I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through" is a stage on the journey in which a trader already done a lot of work but they haven't achieve consistency...
This begs the question "HOW" do you know your method works if you haven't achieved consistency. And I submit if you are asking this question, then you know underneath it all, that it is not the method but the trader (you). If this is the case then discipline is the issue.

Quoting kk007
...Some of the questions related to this stage are:
How to pass through this stage to achieve consistency?...
One MUST learn trading discipline. If you "know" the method works, ask why you "Know" that? Is it because others are using the same method and achieving success? Perhaps speaking with some of those people may help. But the bottom line will be that you MUST trade the method as the method was meant to be traded. If you are using your own method, then you MUST test your method and gain confidence. That requires, hours (sometimes years) of back testing then more hours (sometimes years) of forward testing. You must observe under which market conditions the method wins, and likewise under which market conditions the method loses. Clearly you want to avoid the losing conditions and pile onto the winning conditions. "Passing through" this stage comes only by disciplining yourself to trade the method, and keeping good records of your results...GOOD records.

Quoting kk007
...How do you know your method works when you haven't achieve consistency?...
Keep good records of your trades and note the market conditions. Whether or not your trade won or lost, review it and hold it under a microscope. Ask yourself, "Did I follow the method?", "What would the trade result be if I had followed the method?". Count those trades that your followed the method and mark those "winners" whether or not they finished in profit. Count those trades that you did NOT follow the method and mark those "losers". Count the profit on the "winners" and see if the method was profitable. Count the profit on the "losers" and see if those were profitable.

If the "winners" were more profitable than the "losers" you method is viable. If you "losers" were more profitable than the "winners", then you must review your method and see if it needs to be tweeked, or scraped. Perhaps do the opposite of your method and see what results. The more data you have the more accurate your results will be. A minimum number of trades for me is 100...MINIMUM.

The bottom line is this...it is YOUR actualization of the method that determines consistency NOT the method itself. Most all technical analysis "methods" work under some type of market condition...find them and use them in the appropriate condition, use two or three for varying conditions, but use them CORRECTLY. Keep records and analyze YOURSELF, not the market. Most trading mistakes and failures belong to the trader, not the method.
  • #7
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:05am Nov 28, 2012 9:05am
same here. i know my strategy works but I keep asking myself why im always caught in the wrong side of the trade... im now working on my discipline...
  • #8
  • Nov 28, 2012 9:28am Nov 28, 2012 9:28am
Quote
Failure creates discipline

^ That was my reply better said. I should be very disciplined.
  • #9
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:03am Nov 28, 2012 10:03am
Quoting kk007
I open this thread for traders at different stages to share their experience, so that traders with rich experience can help traders with less experience.

The stage "I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through" is a stage on the journey in which a trader already done a lot of work but they haven't achieve consistency.

Some of the questions related to this stage are:
How to pass through this stage to achieve consistency?
How do you know your method works when you haven't achieve consistency?
etc.

Anyone is happy to share some of...
can u share u'r method with us? i myself didn't find yet a method
  • #10
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:26am Nov 28, 2012 10:26am
If you know your method works then prove it to yourself by back-testing it several years back. But don't just "eyeball backtest". Backtest your method by taking charts bar by bar and analyzing with notes on the chart. Save as pictures on a word or PDF document. Now on the document explain how you would have taken each trade according to the method you say works. Keep track of the pip count and prove it year by year. Once you do this you will see the rules you should follow and never break (discipline). But you will also know if you do break the rules what precautions you should take. Only you can prove to yourself that your method works. You just need to do the homework.

Once you are done post your document and let everyone see so they can critique or make suggestions to your method.

See my journal in the "trading journal" section where I did this for one year back testing EU. I also have a thread in this section where I have attached 2 PDFs that do this.
  • #11
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:31am Nov 28, 2012 10:31am
When i first started out, the most difficult thing to overcome was trading a new system just as it is going into a drawdown/losing streak. My backtest shows overall equity growth, but obviously had drawdown phases. For new traders, starting out at that drawdown phase can bring a lot of doubt vs if your were starting off positive.
NocturnalFX is no longer offering commercial services
  • #12
  • Nov 28, 2012 10:46am Nov 28, 2012 10:46am
Quoting TPOTrader
When i first started out, the most difficult thing to overcome was trading a new system just as it is going into a drawdown/losing streak. My backtest shows overall equity growth, but obviously had drawdown phases. For new traders, starting out at that drawdown phase can bring a lot of doubt vs if your were starting off positive.
"Drawdown" phases??? I disagree with the premise that traders must endure "drawdowns". I wouldn't trade such a system. Yes if your method is based on flipping a coin you will definitely have drawdown phases. You mention "the most difficult thing to overcome was trading a new system just as it is going into a drawdown/losing streak". Did you thoroughly back test this "new system" and identify such "drawdowns". If so why trade it?

Will you have losing trades. Of course you will? But you speak as if in trading we must endure " drawdowns" I don't think so.
  • #13
  • Nov 28, 2012 12:20pm Nov 28, 2012 12:20pm
Quoting Winston Reed
"Drawdown" phases??? I disagree with the premise that traders must endure "drawdowns". I wouldn't trade such a system. Yes if your method is based on flipping a coin you will definitely have drawdown phases. You mention "the most difficult thing to overcome was trading a new system just as it is going into a drawdown/losing streak". Did you thoroughly back test this "new system" and identify such "drawdowns". If so why trade it?

Will you have losing trades. Of course you will? But you speak as if in trading we must endure...
overconfidence.
  • #14
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:35pm Nov 28, 2012 1:35pm
Quoting deltatrade
overconfidence.
lack of ....
  • #15
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:32am Nov 29, 2012 2:32am
Quoting gspajon
This begs the question "HOW" do you know your method works if you haven't achieved consistency. And I submit if you are asking this question, then you know underneath it all, that it is not the method but the trader (you). If this is the case then discipline is the issue.


One MUST learn trading discipline. If you "know" the method works, ask why you "Know" that? Is it because others are using the same method and achieving success? Perhaps speaking with some of those people may help. But the bottom line will be that you MUST trade the...
Thanks for your detailed reply. I am happy to see first hand experience presented here!
  • #16
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:34am Nov 29, 2012 2:34am
Quoting vladutz112
can u share u'r method with us? i myself didn't find yet a method
I am trading patterns, moving averages and support/resistance currently. I haven't well documented my patterns and support/resistance methods very accurately, but for the moving average method. I use material on these 2 threads. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=224697, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=236210
  • #17
  • Nov 29, 2012 2:59am Nov 29, 2012 2:59am
"I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through"

Because lazy, impatience, lack of discipline...


Bruce Lee quote: "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”


Your quote:
Assuming you are not using EA, forward testing is demoing and it involves a lot of manual judgement.
Is it obvious to know whether the method works?


My quote: "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 method once, but I fear the man who has practiced one method 10,000 times."


Just simple practicing...
  • #18
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:07am Nov 29, 2012 3:07am
i had this problem about a year ago my solution and i've done this with everything i've had trouble learning i walked away from the markets, and didn't come back for a year or just a little over. i didn't even open a platform or read anything at all to do with fx, this give me time to work on my discipline to stay out of the market and also to just rid myself of the bad habits i had of jumping the gun on my trades. it worked for me and it always has but that's just me.

WENDIGO
  • #19
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:12am Nov 29, 2012 3:12am
Quoting rstranger
same here. i know my strategy works but I keep asking myself why im always caught in the wrong side of the trade... im now working on my discipline...
Look like your 1st post here... welcome
  • #20
  • Nov 29, 2012 3:13am Nov 29, 2012 3:13am
Quoting nkune
"I know my method works, but I just can't follow it through"

Because lazy, impatience, lack of discipline...


Bruce Lee quote: "I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times.”


Your quote:
Assuming you are not using EA, forward testing is demoing and it involves a lot of manual judgement.
Is it obvious to know whether the method works?


My quote: "I fear not the man...
Good quote
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