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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #36,921
  • Edited 1:28am Nov 28, 2012 12:52am | Edited 1:28am
Quoting tashkent
I think before everything i should tell you little bit about myself.
i started trading about a year ago, precisely in october 2011 with 0 knowledge about trading. after blowing mini account opened micro account for practice which is still surviving with a drowdown.
my stats are there, i have nothing to hide and nothing to ashamed of.
after series of losses, i came to conclusion that market is not a place to get rich in one day. i discovered ff.
read countless posts to get a right mindset.
for this thread i spend about 3 months reading, minimum...
eer, hello there,
You not know who you talking with.
Some humility will do you well.
He no need be righteous nor need bow nor respect you.
You need his prices.
Is by choice,
Maybe you like talk to him about duty instead.

OMG, did i just let the cat out of the bag?
ok ok i confess he is a surfer. A skillful one.

Ai ya dealers arragance?

regards
  • #36,922
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:45am Nov 28, 2012 1:45am
Quoting ukmanthailan
You are so busy trying to appear clever, but all you are doing is revealing how foolish you are. If you had actually read some of the thread as you claim, you would know that nobody on here is saying that technical analysis is a fallacy, but to use it predictively rather than thinking for yourself is.
If that is not one of the most transparent displays of double-talk, then I don't know what qualifies. The OP Title itself contradicts what you just wrote, so I won't even bother highlighting the contradiction for you.

Second - declaring that using technical analysis "predictively" is "foolish," only serves to undermine the use of Historical Trends, which is precisely what the writer of the OP does, if you had bothered to read carefully what was written in the first few posts alone. The Historical Trend is the most widely used piece of "Technical Analysis" ever produced. Following the OP's advice in this thread, you must somehow do the impossible - which is "trading the trend." In case you did not read: The Truth About Trends, the possibility of you ever coming close to "trading the trend" is slim to none and both slim and none have long since boarded the train to nowhere. It is mathematically, logically and physically impossible to ever "trade the trend." It is one of the most telling signs of a neophyte who really never bothered to do the real research necessary to learn the distinction between the Historical Trend and the Probability for Directional Continuance.

Quoting ukmanthailan
You would also know that the OP is far from a failed trader. Both you and tashkent are rather strange people. Fresh ideas and different approaches are not a bad thing but this thread is about learning a basic way of trading so if you have new ideas and perspectives, why not post them elsewhere?
LOL! There is nothing fresh about "trading the trend." Did you even bother reading the OP's first five (5) posts? His entire premise is predicated on that which is impossible. No trader alive is Omnipresent, which is precisely what you must be in order to "trade the trend," which is a series of historical events that have already taken place by definition. New ideas? Freash ideas? "Trend Trading?" Really?


Quoting ukmanthailan
EDIT: To give you an indication of your inability to read even one post thoroughly, you spend a great deal of time in your first post on this thread waffling on about how ironic it is to mention Descartes in this context, considering how much he has contributed to technical trading. You seem to have missed this sentence in fti's original post though:

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die).

That's my point about this entire thread. It is predicated on at least half a dozen material and logical contradictions that make no sense and are not provable in fact. He then followed that up with the following gems:

Quoting fti
Indicators have no capacity to be predictive, by virtue that they are derivatives of historical database.
Quoting fti
But for this moment, my point is that I find it rather disturbing that some traders are over crowding their minds with too much indicator reads and neglecting the "feel the trend aspect" of wihich most lag indicators were devised for. Their over dependence on predictive indicator reads, creates a very dangerous mindset for prudent trading.
Quoting fti
I guess the question at hand is, How can historical data, predict the future? If it could , we'll have no more markets to trade. The fact that people building assumptions into past data and passing that, as mainstream technical analysis, just goes against the grains and foundation , that technical analysis was built upon.
Quoting fti
There are actually true sciences and mathematics in the most traditional "technical analysis models" and as time passes, I find it distasteful that more and more superstition is creeping in. And more and more artistic engineering is created to mask the fact that the traditional TA models were never predictive at all.
These are all total and complete contradictions. Why? Because the so-called "Trend" is not only incorrectly labeled by the OP, but it is also a well recognized Lagging Indicator and has been since long before the OP got involved in the business. Most importantly, it is a First Order Lagging Indicator, which means it is a very close derivative of price depending on the period used. So, the OP uses the very "tool" that he claims should not be used for making "predictive" judgments about market direction.

Furthermore, the OP doesn't even understand enough about this business to realize that any trade decision made is in fact a Prediction about Future market behavior. To fail in understanding just that one simple fact alone speaks volumes. The OP is essentially saying, don't use any Predictive Indicators, except the "Historical Trend" which I have incorrectly labeled as something that you can actually trade.

How ironic is that.

The OP then gives a Currency Spread Day Trader this following bit of ridiculous advice:

Quoting fti
If you have time, read this link carefully.

http://www.ny.frb.org/education/addpub/usfxm/
also wiki about "Bretton Woods Agreement"
Bretton Woods? Are you kidding me?

How on earth does this help the Currency Trader figure out what happens "next" in their particular currency spread? The answer it that it helps about just as much as reading the National Weather Services' Thunderstorm Activity Report for 00:00 zulu, to figure out what happens in EURUSD at 00:01 zulu. No benefit to the trader who has to make a decision right "now" about what direction to take in the market.



Quoting fti
Do yourself a favour. Instead of letting your ego take control and desperately trying to prove how clever you are to all of us idiots on here, take a step back and actually read what you are trying to criticise. Otherwise you have no credibility and you are simply wasting your time and ours.
Who the heck is criticizing anyone other than the critics who jumped all over my post with rude commentary? You are no different in that regard - you've done the same thing.

This is the problem with Cults, Occultic Leaders and Cult Followers. They can't stand being corrected and they have all knowledge in their possession, while having nothing but a clear case of Occultism. Most of the followers in this thread are so deluded and so reprobate on the subject of trading, that I could not standby and watch people simply float over the cliff of insanity, thinking that they were on their way to Trading Heaven in the process. Any Newbie reading this thread would be very wise to head for the hills, because there is precious little genuine trading information in this thread at all.

If you cannot see the glaring contradictions that have been outlined for you, then I would say that it is probably too late for you in this Cult. Trend Following is Occultism - period. Wake up to that fact. You cannot trade was does not exist in your frame of reference. You cannot violate the laws of physics, specifically the rules regarding the Direction of Time and expect to be considered anything but a nut case in the world of trading. It is nutty to think that you can occupy multiple places in Time simultaneously, which is precisely what you need to be able to do in order to "Trade the Trend."

Everyone of the OP's suggestions is predicated on that which is completely impossible. The language used to describe what the market is doing is all wrong. The Historical Trend cannot be traded. Period. Yet, there are several Cults out there wearing black athletic clothing and black tennis shoes who actually believe they are "trading the trend" absolutely nothing could be further from the truth.

The only thing you ever get in this business as a Day Trader, is the extension of a Probability from the Present and into the Future. You NEVER get to touch History. Ever.

Foolish? LOL!
  • #36,923
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:50am Nov 28, 2012 1:50am
Quoting fti
Hi again,
i am well rested.

noted and understood.
but i am serious about the getting help part.
You see you not from the industry and do not understand dealing from an operational point of view.
I not know if you are successful trading or not.
But to survive 11 years trading means you have resources do it.

some of the things you said are true.
Dealers , they not want waste time trying save little anchovies, and risk security compromise, if they are at desks.
and please not talk about dealers arrogance. You not seen it yet.

see...

Seek Help.
  • #36,924
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:51am Nov 28, 2012 1:51am
Quoting GrowRevenue
If that is not one of the most transparent displays of double-talk, then I don't know what qualifies. The OP Title itself contradicts what you just wrote, so I won't even bother highlighting the contradiction for you.

Second - declaring that using technical analysis "predictively" is "foolish," only serves to undermine the use of Historical Trends, which is precisely what the writer of the OP does, if you had bothered to read carefully what was written in the first few posts alone. The Historical Trend is the most widely used piece of "Technical...
So many things wrong with you and this post, I really don't have the time or inclination to address them. EGO - that's all that shines through your posts.

If you are upset because you can't understand the methods in this thread then take some time to reread it.
  • #36,925
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:59am Nov 28, 2012 1:59am
Hi taskent


jacson101 is long term and much respected member, he has in the past given me a very valuable piece of advice when I was not quite getting this way of trading, which luckily for me I took on board.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #36,926
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:06am Nov 28, 2012 2:06am
Quoting GrowRevenue
This is the problem with Cults, Occultic Leaders and Cult Followers. They can't stand being corrected and they have all knowledge in their possession, while having nothing but a clear case of Occultism. Most of the followers in this thread are so deluded and so reprobate on the subject of trading, that I could not standby and watch people simply float over the cliff of insanity, thinking that they were on their way to Trading Heaven in the process. Any Newbie reading this thread would be very wise to head for the hills, because there is precious...

@ friends.
I think is that time of the month again.
Please excuse me, my friends.
Is unhealthy for me.

Now i need decide whether allow him stay and learn, or just chop his head off for his insults and baseless accusation.
i'll take some time observe.
So you chaps , get on with helping each other , fine tune yourselves.
Leave this chap to me.



regards
  • #36,927
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:15am Nov 28, 2012 2:15am
Quoting fti
@ friends.
I think is that time of the month again.
Please excuse me, my friends.
Is unhealthy for me.

Now i need decide whether allow him stay and learn, or just chop his head off for his insults and baseless accusation.
i take some time observe.


regards
I put him on ignore for the sake of my blood pressure and sanity. I have neither your patience nor your forgiving attitude.
  • #36,928
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:19am Nov 28, 2012 2:19am
this strange feeling regarding turncoats.
so easy to make a new login identity and start selling pampered ideas.

regards
  • #36,929
  • Edited 2:44am Nov 28, 2012 2:20am | Edited 2:44am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I put him on ignore for the sake of my blood pressure and sanity. I have neither your patience nor your forgiving attitude.
ah ha,
the patience scorpions? just jesting.

You see , market not always does what i expects it do.
sometimes it really test my patience.
so i am sort of accustomed to it.

Maybe this is the way get my blood pressure slightly higher, than usual.
Lets see.
If it not healthy,
Just like bad trades, i can always pull the plug.

Is good have these kind of peeps in markets, otherwise who you gonna make pips from?

If you had the privilage study that Alan W left behind.
You would know he playing the black and white game.
To win there needs have losers.
To know white there must be black to contrast it.
but if it turns all grey, then.... maybe we nnot want to waste the time watch the congestion.

If market making , surely can scalp these kinds until they cannot find the way to the door.

For the friends here, is best you just ignore all this rubbish.
We are just sitting discussing if 1 lump or 2 lumps of sugar is best for coffee and calling each other with vulgar stuffs, get the libido working.

Maybe he just need customers buy his stuffs. Good advertising is to attack where there's peeps and stir , stir, stir.


regards
  • #36,930
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:43am Nov 28, 2012 2:43am
I was listening to the wrong AW.......AW Tozer......
  • #36,931
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:49am Nov 28, 2012 2:49am
Quoting ukmanthailan
I was listening to the wrong AW.......AW Tozer......
oh so sorry. becareful please, that stuff is very very deep, is not for everyone.
Need think deep get the hidden messages. if mind is closed, or bias, can become issues.
and is not trade related stuff, is just for mind, for understanding.

I used go many octoberfest, not that i am a pervert.
Is nice watch the beers bouncing by, but every time i get home, i need whip myself for being naughty.


regards
  • #36,932
  • Nov 28, 2012 2:53am Nov 28, 2012 2:53am
Quoting fti
oh so sorry. becareful please, that stuff is very very deep, is not for everyone.
Need think deep get the hidden messages. if mind is closed, or bias, can become issues.


regards
That's OK, it was quite thought provoking anyway.

Thanks
  • #36,933
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:01am Nov 28, 2012 3:01am
Quoting ukmanthailan
So many things wrong with you and this post, I really don't have the time or inclination to address them. EGO - that's all that shines through your posts.

If you are upset because you can't understand the methods in this thread then take some time to reread it.

Can't understand the glaring contradictions of in this thread? That somehow trading that which does not exist is possible? Contradictions that you are so snowed under by that you have no idea where you are or what you are doing? You people don't even have the label on correctly and you call yourselves laughing at me?

This thread is an embarrassment to all traders everywhere. You guys are so far down the rabbit whole - it is pathetic. You call yourselves traders? Really? I mean, is this what passes these days on trading forums for actual trading knowledge - some mystical points of origin that have nothing whatsoever to do with the reality of the markets? Seriously? Is this the depth to which traders have sunken?

How many of you work for Brokers? Because, I smell a large Rat in the room. 'Trade the trend' - I mean really, what have you been smoking? Have you run the back-test on that "new concept?" "Dip your toe into the market first" - really? Dip your toe? How many times? How many times until you get your foot chopped off by the market before you realize that consistency as a trader means relentless pursuit of the high probability locations in the structure of the market.

Pointless.

Addictions Can Be Cured.
  • #36,934
  • Edited 3:29am Nov 28, 2012 3:05am | Edited 3:29am
Quoting GrowRevenue
Can't understand the glaring contradictions of in this thread? That somehow trading that which does not exist is possible? Contradictions that you are so snowed under by that you have no idea where you are or what you are doing? You people don't even have the label on correctly and you call yourselves laughing at me?

This thread is an embarrassment to all traders everywhere. You guys are so far down the rabbit whole - it is pathetic. You call yourselves traders? Really? I mean, is this what passes these days on trading forums for actual...
eer , by the way whats the name of your book.
I'll try make sure i not read it.
or you say you have home trading business.
Got your licence yet?
many peeps not know , it can lead you for very long jail terms, longer than the 11 years you had functioned.
And if you commercial, for goodness sakes pay ff for the services they rendered you. Be a commercial member, and pay for some server cost.

I keep wondering why would a a chap with so differing opinions come here, a little free for all, leave it behind for em, thread and stir.
Intersting. Reminds me ask security check your IP.

But really is no harm.
Is good lessons for peeps see your kind in action.
learn new stuff everyday?
  • #36,935
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:24am Nov 28, 2012 3:24am
Quoting fti
eer , by the way whats the name of your book.
I'll try make sure i not read it.
or you say you have home trading business.
Got your licence yet?
many peeps not know , it can lead you for very long jail terms, longer than the 11 years you had functioned.

What a clownish thread this truly is. You ask for a license to trade your own private capital? Really? Is that confused and hyper delusional world you live in on a routine basis, or is it just for this thread only? When was the last time you heard of somebody needing a license to trade their private capital on an institutional trading platform through their own private business? The 'business entity' is for tax purposes and estate continuity purposes, genius. If you were trading at any level of depth, this would already be known to you as a routine matter of common knowledge. In fact, your attorney and CPA would have already explained everything to you.

My books is called: Stay Away From Trend Following Occultism. It is on bookstore shelves right now and you can pick it up for $99.99. Of course, I have a free copy for you in the Trend Following Fallacy thread - so you don't even need to go visit your local bookstore.

Wow - you guys take the Occultism Cake! Rolling in the deep, I guess.

Are you serious? Is this thread serious, or are you guys just pulling my leg? Seriously, I want to know if I have been April Fooled - because if so, then it is the best April Fools joke that anyone has ever played on me. Please tell me that this is one of those Joke Threads that everybody gets duped by at least once, before becoming a full fledged ForexFactory member?

"The trend is your friend." Really? Is that how you did it - is that how you retired a very wealthy man? Or, is this thread a joke? LOL!

Still swallowing the Blue Pill, huh. You should have called yourself BluePillTrader:

Inserted Video


"Tumbling down the rabbit hole." Take the Red Pill and free yourself from being a slave to "Trend" Think.
  • #36,936
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:25am Nov 28, 2012 3:25am
Hi GrowRevenue


there is obviously nothing here of any value for you, we are to far gone, not everyone can be saved, please go waste your energies saving others.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #36,937
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:27am Nov 28, 2012 3:27am
Quoting phil13
Hi GrowRevenue


there is obviously nothing here of any value for you, we are to far gone, not everyone can be saved, please go waste your energies saving others.


Regards


Phil.

Phil, it is called the Red Pill. Not the Red Phil. There is a difference between pretending to trade and actually doing it for a living.
  • #36,938
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:30am Nov 28, 2012 3:30am
. sorry i only swallow what works for me.

regards

Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #36,939
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:35am Nov 28, 2012 3:35am
Quoting phil13
. sorry i only swallow what works for me.

regards

Phil.

Here's a very real clue. You can take it or leave it: If it cannot be articulated then it cannot be traded. And, if it can be articulated then it can be encoded. And, it if can be encoded then it can be tested, evaluated and proofed with an equity curve at its roots. Zero articulation = Zero consistency. Period.

So, if you are telling me that the OP's "method" is incapable of being encoded, then you are also telling me that the OP's method is likewise unintelligible. Something I keep reading about inside this thread: "Feel the trend." LOL!

Funny.
  • #36,940
  • Nov 28, 2012 3:41am Nov 28, 2012 3:41am
Quoting GrowRevenue
What a clownish thread this truly is. You ask for a license to trade your own private capital? Really? Is that confused and hyper delusional world you live in on a routine basis, or is it just for this thread only? When was the last time you heard of somebody needing a license to trade their private capital on an institutional trading platform through their own private business? The 'business entity' is for tax purposes and estate continuity purposes, genius. If you were trading at any level of depth, this would already be known to you as...
Ya ok, may i ask you kindly just read and not post if you wish.
Otherwise you force it upon yourself join the ignored list.
I think i know what you are already.

Have a nice day go to the beaches, have some ketchap.
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