Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1846 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #36,901
  • Edited 6:31pm Nov 27, 2012 5:51pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting MyTbo
FTI, thanks for your answer.
Yeah my worries are mainly for my emotional stability. Next year I'll be with a 10 times bigger account, but I don't think I would be able to increase position sizes tenfold right away. I plan to start with 3 times bigger exposure and then build up slowly, I don't know if I'll be able to stretch my comfort limit to 10 times the exposure I use now for even 6 months, but it's worth the try. My experience shows that getting out of my comfort limit is quite dangerous, it disrupts my decision making, the ability to recharge...
The way i found to increase my position size without effecting mindset was to start super small. I began with £100 and my scout was tiny, I traded like this for a year and was only concerned with % gain and pips not the amount of money gained, it is so small it will bore the average person to think about. From here you are use to your attack and rescue skews etc.

Now I have increased my balance by 10 x up to £1000, and so did the same with my postions. The way i see it is that nothing has changed, except i stick an extra 0 at the end of my position size. Scout is now 10 units rather then 1, its all exactly the same etc

Nothing changes about my trading even if i was to increase my balance again up to 10,000 or even 100,000 everything is the same just my position size changes by 10 x or 100x etc.

I think that once trading becomes second nature to you, where it is very rehearsed and you are familiar with your skew nothing changes with increasing you balance, just your position size increase at the same ratio.
  • #36,902
  • Nov 27, 2012 6:08pm Nov 27, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting fti
Oh, since i have some energies left.
Gro, we have been friends for long time.
Please get a good translator for your postings.
Otherwise you are good in drawings.
Is easier for me understand your drawings.

A picture paints a thousand words.


Thanks

acs_112 this translate

sorry but my device only allows you to insert pictures into my profile.
and not to the fibers.
about safety measures

OK, I'll just watch
rgs
  • #36,903
  • Nov 27, 2012 6:11pm Nov 27, 2012 6:11pm
Quoting fti

Welcome.

I am in fact retired from trading, due to a heart condition. ( you may like call it heart disease, for accuracy purposes)
I recently also retired from guiding traders to the information that i had offered here.
Mostly because i have given all that i can and had repeated it numerous times on this thread over a few years. But also because of lack of energies.
So what i planned to do was to watch and see if any friends branches too far off course, to maybe intervene redirect them from time to time,if i had the energies do so...
:nerd:


Rgds
  • #36,904
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:05pm Nov 27, 2012 7:05pm
I was with friends at bus stop, and there was very old man sitting. We tought he is drunk, but later we started conversation with him, and he said he felt off the cycle and he is not ok. So we took him with car maybe 400m to his home, where he lives, with his family. He wasn't home for several hours, and his family was awake at 1 am. He gave us money, for bringin him home, I feel bad friend took it, but I didn't want to quarell about it. What is really sad is that, how his family is careless about him, that is really shamefull and is really sad, they live in nice house have ok car, infront of house, and he also gave us 40 euros like nothing. You work all your life, to save money for family and when u r old and powerless, they just want you basically to die as fast as possible so they get your wealth. Now I understand better, why fti said, more money you have more troubles you have.
  • #36,905
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:27pm Nov 27, 2012 7:27pm
Quoting jacson101
:nerd:


Rgds

I think before everything i should tell you little bit about myself.
i started trading about a year ago, precisely in october 2011 with 0 knowledge about trading. after blowing mini account opened micro account for practice which is still surviving with a drowdown.
my stats are there, i have nothing to hide and nothing to ashamed of.
after series of losses, i came to conclusion that market is not a place to get rich in one day. i discovered ff.
read countless posts to get a right mindset.
for this thread i spend about 3 months reading, minimum 3-4 hours a day. it helped me a lot. Thank you FTI.
Now from this point on most of the loyal members of this thread will start cursing me. Are you ready?
FTI, this thread has turned to a gang group. it has been long time i have not felt a fresh air here. it is stuffed. closed to new ideas, different perspectives. i have not seen any constructive activity here but vouching each other. yes, btw the guy above, who has 10+ vouches, i have not read a single refreshing post from him. i specifically read his post for the last year, it is all crap. look at his last reply i am quoting, " :nerd: " what the heck was that? there is something wrong in this thread. or is this a kindergarten?
why people who come here with rational and and fresh ideas are treated like enemies? why every idea other than fti's considered as crap?
trust me people, there are many brilliant threads as good as fti's but this is one rear thread where followers going mad, cursing anyone with critical thinking. i terribly apologize to state that in bold letters:
THERE HAVE BEEN TOO MANY CLAIMING TO BE THE RIGHTEOUS, YET THEY ALL HAVE FAILED MISERABLY.
IF YOU HAVE NOT LEARNED TO RESPECT OTHERS, THEIR IDEAS AND OPINIONS, YOU KNOW NOTHING ABOUT TRADING AND MARKET.
Guys, think about what you have turned this nice thread to. by every new post it is losing its creditability.
Now i will wait for your comments.
As Above, So Below
  • #36,906
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:30pm Nov 27, 2012 7:30pm
Quoting fti
I am in fact retired from trading, due to a heart condition.
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.


Quoting fti
I recently also retired from guiding traders to the information that i had offered here.
Mostly because i have given all that i can and had repeated it numerous times on this thread over a few years. But also because of lack of energies.
I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.


Quoting fti
So what i planned to do was to watch and see if any friends branches too far off course, to maybe intervene redirect them from time to time,if i had the energies do so again.
A very generous disposition to take.



Quoting fti
What tickled me write you this reply , is that your writings, ( i took liberty read your lonely thread.) is that you made me wonder.
Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show must go on, as they say.


Quoting fti
Had been criticised for it, but you take the cake for having the balls critic my knowledge.
I'll reply using your own words and let the reader decide the size of the balls involved and who is actually offering the critique:

Quoting fti
If one was to impliment all these studies onto their charts. What you will see is a beautiful piece of art, displaying very impressive hog wash, that do nothing but dazzle the uninitiated. If anything else it 'll confuse you even more.
Quoting fti
The problem with some people and some professional Technical Analyst today ( being a certified Technical Analyst myself ) is that they use the Technical studies as if, it were the "Holy Grail" of trading & their pathway to the millions. How far that is from the truth.
Quoting fti
If you use the Technical studies as your "Holy Grail", I have only one word for you, GAMBLER.
Quoting fti
I put it to you, that, to consider your Technical Studies to be more than what they are is a "fallacy" in trading the markets, not so unlike martingale gamblers' fallacy. It can lead you to a very dark place.
Quoting fti
I shall try to push these doors ajar for you slowly to show you the light at the end of the tunnel (please hope its no on-coming train), God willing.
Quoting fti
What many traders do not know, or may fail to recognise, is that your success in taming the markets, is comprised of a mix of ingredients. Not so unlike in baking cakes. I suggest three very important ingredients:

- Market Structure
- You
- Capitalization
The above statements are from one having done superior homework, knowing everything there is to know about Technical Analysis and knowing without doubt that the use of Technical Analysis is a fallacy. Therefore, all Technical Analysis in existence is Technical Analysis that I would expect one having such strong opinions to have studied. Unfortunately, this is not possible as all Technical Analysis in existence has not been revealed to the public. Therefore, one can only know the Technical Analysis that is either already in the public domain, or that which one has researched, developed and designed themselves.


Quoting fti
Any person with a good brain on their shoulders, will ultimate come to the realisation that these are just tools. Tools that are built on historical and lagging databases. Moreover the rigidity of the parameters used in the studies imposes rigid responses to changing market conditions.
The most highly used lagging tool for technical analysis is the mathematically averaged historical price trend. It is a First Order mathematical derivation of historical price and the greater the magnitude between the starting and ending points, the greater deviation and the lag become between its value and the real market value. That is a mathematical fact about the historical trend that most so-called "trend traders" don't yet understand fully. The idea that the historical trend is not a technical indicator, is one of the biggest and most dangerous delusions that "trend traders" tend to make, as it is from that launching point that they go on to compound error after error in judgment about real-time market behavior.

It is impossible for the trader to trade the "trend" as the trend is never within the trader's time-line. Therefore, the only thing the "trend trader" can trade is the Historical Trend Projection, which is entirely different than trading the Historical Trend.


Quoting fti
I really not know you at all, but since you had helped me ponder.
That means you came here tried give me some help improve.
A good deed deserves one in return.
May i suggest to you, although we are not friends yet, to please seek professional help.
I am sure we will have good exchange of thoughts and ideas, if your brain is recovered.

Your reply is born of the kind of arrogance that can only come from a failed trader. Over the past eleven (11) years on trading forums, I have witness them blow accounts several times on their way out the back door with some kind of "aliment" as the excuse for why they no longer trade. It does not take much at all to develop an automated trading routine that does your bidding for you, so that you can focus your time and attention on other things, but apparently that also requires that one is in possession of trading ideas that actually do work. Something you have not yet gotten around to producing.

However, I'll end by quoting you yet again:

Quoting fti
It may be due to ignorance (being new and uniniatiated), lazyness, or just plain stubborness ( a little knowledge is a dangerous thing).
Indeed, it is: The Truth About Trends and the Occultic Traders Who Following Them.
  • #36,907
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:53pm Nov 27, 2012 7:53pm
Hey gro

Go get a life!

(do i detect a trend here? Impossible! Plot it someone :-))

Quoting GrowRevenue
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.




I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.




A very generous disposition to take.





Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show...
  • #36,908
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:06pm Nov 27, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting peetee09
Hey gro

Go get a life!

(do i detect a trend here? Impossible! Plot it someone :-))
yet another kid... did you understand even one word what he wrote and trying to say?
shit, i have to get out of this thread.
As Above, So Below
  • #36,909
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:20pm Nov 27, 2012 8:20pm
Quoting GrowRevenue
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.




I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.




A very generous disposition to take.






Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show...
Your probability analyses will fail you, sooner or later you will get "caught".
There's more to it than a secret formula, published or unpublished and there's a basic difference in market-making fx and what home based businesses are trying to accomplish by trading.
I hope you understand what I'm trying to say because the guy that started this thread(fti) really is a special person. Believe me..he knows what he's talking about, and he helped me a great a deal.
You should take some time to read, there's a ton of wisdom in what he's saying..everywhere in the thread.
Believe me.
  • #36,910
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:23pm Nov 27, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting tashkent
I think before everything i should tell you little bit about myself.
i started trading about a year ago, precisely in october 2011 with 0 knowledge about trading. after blowing mini account opened micro account for practice which is still surviving with a drowdown.
my stats are there, i have nothing to hide and nothing to ashamed of.
after series of losses, i came to conclusion that market is not a place to get rich in one day. i discovered ff.
read countless posts to get a right mindset.
for this thread i spend about 3 months reading, minimum...
I know who I am, you don't need to question someone else.
Fti is friend and mentor, someone I owe much to.

I'm glad your making some money trading retail forex.
Good luck to you.
  • #36,911
  • Nov 27, 2012 9:05pm Nov 27, 2012 9:05pm
Quoting tashkent
I think before everything i should tell you little bit about myself.
i started trading about a year ago, precisely in october 2011 with 0 knowledge about trading. after blowing mini account opened micro account for practice which is still surviving with a drowdown.
my stats are there, i have nothing to hide and nothing to ashamed of.
after series of losses, i came to conclusion that market is not a place to get rich in one day. i discovered ff.
read countless posts to get a right mindset.
for this thread i spend about 3 months reading, minimum...
cool down ,,,,,,,,,my friend,,
Sometimes words that came out not sync with that in the heart


regards
suma
  • #36,912
  • Nov 27, 2012 9:19pm Nov 27, 2012 9:19pm
Quoting GrowRevenue
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.




I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.




A very generous disposition to take.





Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show must go on, as...

the point is that you do not know most of who is FTI
and maybe you just read the front page and back page of this thread alone

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=397407

and I have read your thread
I think it's interesting to ponder

regards
suma
  • #36,913
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:02pm Nov 27, 2012 10:02pm
TAF does make some interesting people make a visit....i sniff something .....i guess i am reading a book and it says some Foolish people will always come and try o spoil your mindset...and i come here and see exactly whats happening...

lol....so close yet so far....

V
  • #36,914
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:04pm Nov 27, 2012 10:04pm
Quoting GrowRevenue
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.




I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.




A very generous disposition to take.





Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show...

Got anything else? I ____ you....you can fill whatever u want in that dash...and then put in the context whatever u want it to and show the world whichever way u want to show it...

why give ur great presence to this thread?..... btw i agree

"THERE IS NO SPOON"


V
  • #36,915
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:13pm Nov 27, 2012 10:13pm
Quoting drzakir123
when i was writing about the direction,basically i was talking about the trend on 1day and 4hr chart.if u ask fti about trend he will point to dow theory ie for uptrend higher high and higher low and for down trend lower high lower low.what fti say u may be slightly wrong in timing of ur trade but u should never be wrong in the direction of the trend. one can be certain about direction but not the prices.
one more thing,in my 6yrs of trading i never played on demo,and i will suggest the same,thats becos if u take ur emotions out of the market whats...
Hello Dr,

With respect I disagree with you about the demo account. IMHO we have to tryout any MO in demo account.
As you said you may not come to know about "YOU". because money is not real.

But the confidence you gain on that MO(by testing in demo) will help you to control "YOU" when you trade with real money.
This what I felt personally.

regards,
LO-Trader
  • #36,916
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:30pm Nov 27, 2012 10:30pm
Quoting Adilius07
Dear Fti and fellow traders,

Could you please point me to the page where is more discussion and examples on proper rescue techniques?
Maybe someone remembers at least the year and month when this was discussed?


Good trading to all!
Kind Regards,
Adi
Hello Adilius07,

May be you can have a look at the below posts,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post1833815
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post1812957
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1833076
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post1833553

But you will miss the fun reading the first 200 pages.

Thanks,
LO-Trader
  • #36,917
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:45pm Nov 27, 2012 10:45pm
Quoting LO-Trader
Hello Adilius07,

May be you can have a look at the below posts,
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...15#post1833815
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...57#post1812957
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...76#post1833076
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post1833553

But you will miss the fun reading the first 200 pages.

Thanks,
LO-Trader

Hi LO,

Thanks for the suggestion I will visit these links in a moment.
I did make one pass of first 300 pages already but I'll make another one soon with more attention.

Thanks,
Adi
  • #36,918
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:21pm Nov 27, 2012 11:21pm
Quoting GrowRevenue
Your reply is born of the kind of arrogance that can only come from a failed trader. Over the past eleven (11) years on trading forums, I have witness them blow accounts several times on their way out the back door with some kind of "aliment" as the excuse for why they no longer trade. It does not take much at all to develop an automated trading routine that does your bidding for you, so that you can focus your time and attention on other things, but apparently that also requires that one is in possession of trading ideas that actually do work....
You are so busy trying to appear clever, but all you are doing is revealing how foolish you are. If you had actually read some of the thread as you claim, you would know that nobody on here is saying that technical analysis is a fallacy, but to use it predictively rather than thinking for yourself is.

You would also know that the OP is far from a failed trader. Both you and tashkent are rather strange people. Fresh ideas and different approaches are not a bad thing but this thread is about learning a basic way of trading so if you have new ideas and perspectives, why not post them elsewhere?

EDIT: To give you an indication of your inability to read even one post thoroughly, you spend a great deal of time in your first post on this thread waffling on about how ironic it is to mention Descartes in this context, considering how much he has contributed to technical trading. You seem to have missed this sentence in fti's original post though:

I would, from my many years of studies, go so far as to say, that they all work, some more than others but they all do serve a purpose. (to give traders, the "guts" to do or die).

------------

Do yourself a favour. Instead of letting your ego take control and desperately trying to prove how clever you are to all of us idiots on here, take a step back and actually read what you are trying to criticise. Otherwise you have no credibility and you are simply wasting your time and ours.
  • #36,919
  • Edited 1:51am Nov 28, 2012 12:19am | Edited 1:51am
Quoting GrowRevenue
Sorry, to hear that. I wish you the best of health.




I can and do appreciate it having been there done that myself.




A very generous disposition to take.





Since there are only a handful of traders like myself still daring to visit on-line trading communities such as ForexFactory, I can appreciate being in the minority 5% of at-home-traders who actually run a small trading firm from a home office. Trading successfully online and at home, is indeed a very lonely business. But, it is a business nonetheless and the show...

Hi again,
i am well rested.

noted and understood.
but i am serious about the getting help part.
You see you not from the industry and do not understand dealing from an operational point of view.
I not know if you are successful trading or not.
But to survive 11 years trading means you have resources do it.

some of the things you said are true.
Dealers , they not want waste time trying save little anchovies, and risk security compromise, if they are at desks.
and please not talk about dealers arrogance. You not seen it yet.

see your post,
"The most highly used lagging tool for technical analysis is the mathematically averaged historical price trend. It is a First Order mathematical derivation of historical price and the greater the magnitude between the starting and ending points, the greater deviation and the lag become between its value and the real market value. That is a mathematical fact ................"

you do know some stuff. You just not know the practical applications of it.

Maybe you had read alot, but seriously i detect that you not have hands on dealing before.
There is no such term as Historical trend. On charts everything is historical. No one knows about whats not happened yet.
Everything you see in statistics and on charts , they are all historical.
left hand side on price charts, is basically the prices that were traded and the general volatility of the price gyrations.
right hand side is blank space for you fill in the new data that comes on stream.

In so far as trend is concerned, trend is basically flow. It will continue in direction of its flow until it meets stronger forces to stop it in it tracks and/or reverse it. No one uses term as Historical trend , because it is a given. Everyone knows that the trend that they watching is historical records of the flow. Otherwise every one will call an egg , a shelled egg.

What you talking about in terns of "projections from historical prices" , in dealing is known as bias. In laymen terms you can say inclination.

As ukman have posted, you don't read very well.
and i dare not even venture check your abilities in comprehension of what you read.

Anyways , Goodluck to you.
I am very weak these days, if you had met me in earlier times i would take efforts to explain more things in detail help you.
But unfortunately, these not the times. In fact i feel this may be the last attempt open your eyes.

regards
  • #36,920
  • Edited 1:16am Nov 28, 2012 12:50am | Edited 1:16am
Quoting jacson101
:rofl ::nerd:


Rgds
Jack

hi hi friend,
good see you.

be good
any big waves coming for year end bonus?
I am a little itchy, but i not know if it will bum me to oblivion.
: rofl: couldn't find a clip indicate the ass itchyness for a good laugh my friend.
maybe a song?

regards

Inserted Video
113 traders viewing now