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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #36,861
  • Edited 8:53am Nov 27, 2012 7:51am | Edited 8:53am
ok,here i am,i have send a small scout at 1.2952,on the long side.it is just to dip my toes and feel the market.
13.53 british time. usually when i am in trade i will be editing multiple time on the same post so that i have continuity.so u ppl may have to go back regularly,to see what happen.
13.57 it is my experience immediately after taking position,price go against me few pips,i do feel like broker trying to shade the price lol but that is nonsense.
14.02 usually i like to keep my attacks and rescues flexible and those depends on how fast is market moving and more important how i am feeling at the time.some time if i feel very bad i may kill my scout very quickly as well.
14.10 what is the reason behind my scout?.a,last week price action was bullish, b,hrly chart consolidating and recent price action has taken the ducks out on both side of consolidation.now after in market i feel like market may correct upto 1.2860.let see i am just following price and i dont want to predict ,nor assume anything. cougar i notice u and u have taken diamerically opposite position.
14.22 i have added one more position at 1.2933 i am sort of semi rescue/attack mode.presently original scout is underwater.i feel like market is taking out the ducks below hrly consolidation.my avg price is 1.2943.
14.32.. price at 1.2932,feel like trouble is brewing for me.presently feel like to cut my position down but price seems to be stalling.
14.50 i have locked in some profit and reduce my original scout position by half.may close my position if price allow me.i want to fight now but i have to go due .any way small profits better than small loss.happy.
14.53 close the position with a very small profit.bye.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,862
  • Edited 8:43am Nov 27, 2012 8:04am | Edited 8:43am
I'm short an EU Scout at 1.2947, shorted another Scout at 1.2931...looking kinda iffy just before the news announcement

Just testing the waters.

Need to stay nimble here.

Brought everyone home. We have a 15 min reversal.

Eric.
" Be always employed in something useful." - Benjamin Franklin
  • #36,863
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:43am Nov 27, 2012 8:43am
I like to listen to this before I go to bed, or whenever I feel stressed

Inserted Video
  • #36,864
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:25am Nov 27, 2012 10:25am
"hold it firmly ... in flexible hands"
  • #36,865
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:34am Nov 27, 2012 10:34am
Quoting Gro
"hold it firmly ... in flexible hands"
Sometimes I have not idea what you are referring to. Do you talk like this in real life?
  • #36,866
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:00am Nov 27, 2012 11:00am
ok i am back.looking at 4hr chart give the feeling prices are in correction.that mean i should wait till the impulse wave start.i know prices have this tendency to go down and i should on the sideline for the moment.the characteristic of the market i notice is on lower time frame it gives u the feeling that market going against the trend and it will do so many time that everyone believe and change thier religion and once that happen and on the otherside bulls will be waiting for so long for the price to go up they become frustrated and they chaange thier religion as well and once that happen,the real believer come and take market where it has to go.
so what can we do...few thing to keep in mind...
1.when ur not in a position then dont look at the smaller time frame charts.
2.when in not in a position only look at the long term frame.
3.once ur bias is firmly in place whether long or short then only go one step down the chart and see where the strong support and resistance in place and think about what are different route a price can take and once u know different points ie strong and weak points and ur ready to enter a position move to 5 min charts and move with the price ie dance with it.and see if u can exploit it.while doing that never ever take a position agaisnt ur original bias. regards.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,867
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:23am Nov 27, 2012 11:23am
Dear Fti and fellow traders,

Could you please point me to the page where is more discussion and examples on proper rescue techniques?
Maybe someone remembers at least the year and month when this was discussed?

Today I was struck by a thought that is what if I will do my rescues in the opposite to my scout direction? I.e. if I got 1 short scout trapped maybe it is valid and more beneficial to seek for rescue with 2 long troops?

Maybe I'm just slowly going crazy or something... but my mega worry is "what to do if I got a scout in trouble then rescue in trouble then another one in trouble if market keeps on going the "wrong way"....

Any suggestions? Can we discuss this please?

Good trading to all!
Kind Regards,
Adi
  • #36,868
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:25am Nov 27, 2012 11:25am
Quoting M-H Trader
Sometimes I have not idea what you are referring to. Do you talk like this in real life?
in real life I talk real
  • #36,869
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:30am Nov 27, 2012 11:30am
Quoting Adilius07
Dear Fti and fellow traders,

Could you please point me to the page where is more discussion and examples on proper rescue techniques?
Maybe someone remembers at least the year and month when this was discussed?

Today I was struck by a thought that is what if I will do my rescues in the opposite to my scout direction? I.e. if I got 1 short scout trapped maybe it is valid and more beneficial to seek for rescue with 2 long troops?

Maybe I'm just slowly going crazy or something... but my mega worry is "what to do if I got a scout...
easy answer is bite the bullet and reorient urself.hard answer,which may kill u if ur not careful is reasess ur bias and if u still feel in the right direction then u may have to go to higher skew level.read the first 200 pages and if u have done that then reread them again and this time very slowly becos all the answer there.regards.
ps. u can do anythng u want to, but never,i mean 'never' be wrong about the main direction of the prices.if have doubt stay on the sideline.
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,870
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:40am Nov 27, 2012 11:40am
Quoting Adilius07
Dear Fti and fellow traders,

Could you please point me to the page where is more discussion and examples on proper rescue techniques?
Maybe someone remembers at least the year and month when this was discussed?

Today I was struck by a thought that is what if I will do my rescues in the opposite to my scout direction? I.e. if I got 1 short scout trapped maybe it is valid and more beneficial to seek for rescue with 2 long troops?

Maybe I'm just slowly going crazy or something... but my mega worry is "what to do if I got a scout...
how many times do you want to
do? change trend.
why use scout?!?
  • #36,871
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:42am Nov 27, 2012 11:42am
Hi drzakir,

Thank you for reply. I am a slow learner. Difficult to understand what you mean by "but never,i mean 'never' be wrong about the main direction of the prices". If I had this kind of certainty there will never be a need to perform the rescue I would just wait until the market gets back to it's main direction.

You are right I should start over from page 1. I will, just meanwhile I thought to practice rescues on my demo when the need arise. Until now about 50 trades I have not yet had any serious rescue problems so far, happend that market always came back to the initially anticipated direction. But I can never know for sure what the next trade will be, so I am trying to think of resuce protocol for myself.

Thanks for your reply.



Quoting drzakir123
easy answer is bite the bullet and reorient urself.hard answer,which may kill u if ur not careful is reasess ur bias and if u still feel in the right direction then u may have to go to higher skew level.read the first 200 pages and if u have done that then reread them again and this time very slowly becos all the answer there.regards.
ps. u can do anythng u want to, but never,i mean 'never' be wrong about the main direction of the prices.if have doubt stay on the sideline.
  • #36,872
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:43am Nov 27, 2012 11:43am
Hi, Gro. Sorry I don't understand the question, can you please rephrase the question?


Quoting Gro
how many times do you want to
do?
why use scout?!?
  • #36,873
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:48am Nov 27, 2012 11:48am
Quoting Adilius07
Hi, Gro. Sorry I don't understand the question, can you please rephrase the question?
I repair my post
  • #36,874
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:58am Nov 27, 2012 11:58am
Quoting Gro
how many times do you want to
do? change trend.
why use scout?!?
Thanks for editing. I really don't have all these answers yet. At first I thought to use the scout just to "test the river with my one foot" then I thought that maybe it is much better to use the scout for small but sure gains. I now use the scout as my main income provider (demo) 13% in a month is fantastic so far in my opinion.

I mean if scout reached its target, thats it I will now start all over again looking for the next setup.
  • #36,875
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:03pm Nov 27, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting Adilius07
Hi drzakir,

Thank you for reply. I am a slow learner. Difficult to understand what you mean by "but never,i mean 'never' be wrong about the main direction of the prices". If I had this kind of certainty there will never be a need to perform the rescue I would just wait until the market gets back to it's main direction.

You are right I should start over from page 1. I will, just meanwhile I thought to practice rescues on my demo when the need arise. Until now about 50 trades I have not yet had any serious rescue problems so far, happend that...
when i was writing about the direction,basically i was talking about the trend on 1day and 4hr chart.if u ask fti about trend he will point to dow theory ie for uptrend higher high and higher low and for down trend lower high lower low.what fti say u may be slightly wrong in timing of ur trade but u should never be wrong in the direction of the trend. one can be certain about direction but not the prices.
one more thing,in my 6yrs of trading i never played on demo,and i will suggest the same,thats becos if u take ur emotions out of the market whats left is technicalities of markets.by playing on demo ur doing anything but trading.what fti teaches is all about u and u wont understand any of his teaching if u dont put money on line,i mean ''YOU'' on line.regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,876
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:04pm Nov 27, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting drzakir123
when i was writing about the direction,basically i was talking about the trend on 1day and 4hr chart.if u ask fti about trend he will point to dow theory ie for uptrend higher high and higher low and for down trend lower high lower low.what fti say u may be slightly wrong in timing of ur trade but u should never be wrong in the direction of the trend.
one more thing,in my 6yrs of trading i never played on demo,and i will suggest the same,thats becos if u take ur emotions out of the market whats left is technicalities of markets.by...
Thanks drzakir, that is a good point. Yes.
  • #36,877
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:07pm Nov 27, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Adilius07
Thanks for editing. I really don't have all these answers yet. At first I thought to use the scout just to "test the river with my one foot" then I thought that maybe it is much better to use the scout for small but sure gains. I now use the scout as my main income provider (demo) 13% in a month is fantastic so far in my opinion.

I mean if scout reached its target, thats it I will now start all over again looking for the next setup.
OK get a feel for the market
not stop learning
slowly and continuously
rgs

PS try to find answers to my
previous post
  • #36,878
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:31pm Nov 27, 2012 12:31pm
Hi adi


if your in trouble during rescue try easing off the accelerator, nothing is set in stone, one way of dealing with the burden of snowball is to remove some of the load as soon as you realise your rescue is failing, you can always add more if it turns quickly. This is about managing all your trades as though they are one, you could even use profit from another pair or two to rescue, the options are limitless you just need to constantly adjust your sizes to protect your book and stay within your comfort zone, that way you be able to think better and see what is in front of you.


Hi dr


trend can and does change very quickly, I do not believe it says here to only trade in the trend direction, but you should be aware and cautious if you think you are against the trend, trend is defined very differently by many people, I prefer to look for direction, I see far more trades that way. I differ on your views of demo, I believe it is a valuable tool to practise on, I agree there is a difference when you go live but if you have not practised on demo all your going to do is give your money to the broker, when if you had practised on demo and become successful you would have a good foundation in place.


Regards


Phil.
-be careful about what you allow to be put in your mind-
  • #36,879
  • Nov 27, 2012 12:31pm Nov 27, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting Adilius07
Dear Fti and fellow traders,

Could you please point me to the page where is more discussion and examples on proper rescue techniques?
Maybe someone remembers at least the year and month when this was discussed?

Today I was struck by a thought that is what if I will do my rescues in the opposite to my scout direction? I.e. if I got 1 short scout trapped maybe it is valid and more beneficial to seek for rescue with 2 long troops?

Maybe I'm just slowly going crazy or something... but my mega worry is "what to do if I got a scout...
Hi Adilius,

If you have 1 short scout and decide the best option would be to go 2 troops long, then you have flipped your position. This would be the protocol if the market has changed direction and your initial scout was against the "flow" of the market.

It was covered in the thread that if your potion gets into trouble one of two things has happened.

1. You are in the wrong direction against the flow of the market in which case you should cut it lose or flip.
2. You were badly timed and if the position is favourable you can attempt to rescue the position by adding to it.

As you increase your skew and scale positions in you are increasing your exposure to the market. Where as you have no control over where the price moves It is within your capacity to manage your exposure and risk depending on the situation unfolding. Your ability to follow price action and "flow" is critical here as your exposure increases if you keep getting it wrong you are toast. This is why you must be very well capitalized and keep initial positions small to give you more room for manoeuvre.

"What happens if the market goes the wrong way?" The market never goes the wrong way, It is you that goes the "wrong way" if it happens then was your mistake in reading price action and following the general flow. Fti is very specific that attack and rescue are only tools to help you stay aligned with the general flow for those times you get out of step, remember you are only trying to follow where it goes not predict.

Im sure there are others here who can explain much better then I can, but it is all covered in the thread if you take the time to read and learn everything is there.

Hope this helps.
  • #36,880
  • Nov 27, 2012 1:03pm Nov 27, 2012 1:03pm
Quoting phil13
Hi adi


if your in trouble during rescue try easing off the accelerator, nothing is set in stone, one way of dealing with the burden of snowball is to remove some of the load as soon as you realise your rescue is failing, you can always add more if it turns quickly. This is about managing all your trades as though they are one, you could even use profit from another pair or two to rescue, the options are limitless you just need to constantly adjust your sizes to protect your book and stay within your comfort zone, that way you be able to think...

Quoting Acs_112
Hi Adilius,

If you have 1 short scout and decide the best option would be to go 2 troops long, then you have flipped your position. This would be the protocol if the market has changed direction and your initial scout was against the "flow" of the market.

It was covered in the thread that if your potion gets into trouble one of two things has happened.

1. You are in the wrong direction against the flow of the market in which case you should cut it lose or flip.
2. You were badly timed and if the position is favourable you can attempt...
Thank you very much Phil and Acs for your replies!

Great suggestion to be able to decipher between the wrong timing and wrong choice of direction.
Use of higher TF will serve me here I think.
So my first guide line for the rescue protocol maybe will start like this:

1. If I believe that I was only wrong with timing I will still seek to enter the rescue in the same dir as my scout (or just sit on my hands)
2. If I believe that I was wrong with the overall flow I will flip the position with opposite trade(s)
3. When flipping the trade I may also seek to exit some of my initial scout (partial exit with loss)

That is with aim to bring the overall outcome of these series of trades to breakeven or small loss as much as possible. I have no problem with fixing a small loss as the win rate is so high and I can make it back very fast with the next streak of wins. I think this "flip" should still be viewed as a rescue and not as a new position in the opposite direction. So leaving a few soldiers to die is better than lose a whole squad.

Some food for thought for me!

The problem is that I have yet not experienced any real rescue in need.
So all this scenarios I can only play in my mind, i.e. theoretically.

Thanks for suggestions!
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