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EURUSD predictive trading

  • #181
  • Nov 26, 2012 4:42am Nov 26, 2012 4:42am
Quoting Mike Haran
I am going to post my points for intraday swings on the EURUSD before they happen. I expect to be trolled a bit but I am not concerned, I think I have found the key to unlocking the markets and I am prepared to post my analysis before the fact.

The rule is that at the green lines I expect the market to reverse within 1 hour window so if the market was going up before the window if will then fall. If it was going down it will then rise. I am looking at about 90-100 pips on these moves and I will use 50 pip stops.

The price levels used to get...
Mike, I refer you to your first post when you started this thread. Where is it you say 300 pip predictions ?
  • #182
  • Nov 26, 2012 6:23am Nov 26, 2012 6:23am
Nelly point taken anyone can mention a 100 pip range and pull a 50 pip turn out of it. so let me clarrify this move on the 23rd. I expect it to last maybe til the 2-3rd December, to be in excess of 300 pips, possibly taking out 1.26618 before reversing back up. The more time elapses from the 23rd the more confident I become, however I expect this move to be quite sideways to down, but thats only a guess
  • #183
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:21am Nov 26, 2012 7:21am
So this is the defining moment. The miracle hair growth potion salesman has been questioned about his before and after pictures by a heckler in the crowd. ''The guy just has a wig on is shouted, let us pull at the hair''. The salesman stalls and diverts and the crowd are just about to leave when he produces another bald man and invites the crowd to watch the hair growing in real time. A ballsy move by the salesman as the crowd camp down for the week !
  • #184
  • Nov 26, 2012 8:34am Nov 26, 2012 8:34am
Quoting Nelly12
So this is the defining moment. The miracle hair growth potion salesman has been questioned about his before and after pictures by a heckler in the crowd. ''The guy just has a wig on is shouted, let us pull at the hair''. The salesman stalls and diverts and the crowd are just about to leave when he produces another bald man and invites the crowd to watch the hair growing in real time. A ballsy move by the salesman as the crowd camp down for the week !

hahahaha I love it, but Nelly all this anger you know I can tell you lost a load trading the markets, you possibly even bought into the idea of some magical system, bet you had a chart full of indicators too all flashing and still the market had you rotten. Now you take your frustration out on others because its quite hard to give yourself a punch in the mouth. So look I know where you are comming from because I was there too.

So when some dude jumps out of the jungle using a method you cannot understand you want to string him up, don't worry its human nature. I did expect to get trolled a bit, but you are exceeding expectations ;-)

So sit down take a glass of water, ask how do you really hate me or you and lets carry on the predictive trading because its good fun, in effect predicting the actions of many traders before they do it.

Carry the heckling on its entertaining

All the best


Mike Haran

have to say this is not the defining moment though, there have been a few more than this

Just for you Nelly I will try to define the exact low on the 3rd December, just to prove it can be done
  • #185
  • Edited 8:46am Nov 26, 2012 8:36am | Edited 8:46am
Quoting Nelly12
So this is the defining moment. The miracle hair growth potion salesman has been questioned about his before and after pictures by a heckler in the crowd. ''The guy just has a wig on is shouted, let us pull at the hair''. The salesman stalls and diverts and the crowd are just about to leave when he produces another bald man and invites the crowd to watch the hair growing in real time. A ballsy move by the salesman as the crowd camp down for the week !
Come on You guys.. Particularly you Nelly.. Lets cool it now. No need for personal abuse. And what youve written is offensive. I can understand ur frustration.. and perhaps have some point to make about Mikes vagueness on some issues but he is doing something almost unique here on FF. Hes making before-the-fact calls. That takes balls. Recommending how these predictions are traded I personally dont think Mike should get involved with, unless he wants to put up a demo that all subscribers can access without prejudice, to show an example of how they might be. But thats his call.

Of course hes going to be wrong.. and no doubt at times spectacularly wrong. Everything works till it doesnt. I dont know Mike from Adam LoL and Im certainly NO APOLOGIST for him here. But in reading his stuff here we got to realise this is a probability game.. and a subzero one at that. I would say after short scan of the thread that Mike is doing better than most Bank Analyists I know.
A lot of these moves and their timings are news sentiment driven. so pure tech analysis is fraught with dangers..
We learned after the LTC crash that the math involved in Market predictions is not that of Physics but of Biology...LoL

Im getting a lot of stimulation out of Mikes posts here. Im not trading them but Im taking them "under advice" and seriously.
And for the sake of peace .. I suggest Mike adds a Disclaimer to the thread.. " Dont try this at home" (joke??) LoL

Posted with total respect for both points of view.
Cliff

PS as a humorous aside .. many years ago a now famous analysist told me the secret of his success.. ... "... NEVER put a date and a price on the same sheet of paper!"
  • #186
  • Nov 26, 2012 9:02am Nov 26, 2012 9:02am
Thanks for the support much appreciated and I do really know where Nelly is comming from I went through the same thing a year ago, I resented the people selling snake oil, because they are real scumbags knocking out $1500 dollar courses and you could not make a penny with them, that why they are selling them.

Sure I mess up, lack of knowledge on my part this is really cutting edge stuff, I don't even look at the economic calender, because the response to news is not dictated by the news its about how people feel when they read the news. of course economic news causes a reaction but how often have you seen news as was expected and the market shoots off like a scalded cat, sure pivots are important and I look at them as is the daily open.

I am vague sometimes because I am unsure and possibly 2 bits of conflicting information are sitting before me, I am not out to mislead, just if I was expecting a move down and price moves down before my cycle its not easy, polarity is a pig to figure out because in a chaotic system you have a collapse point which offers two option its called a bifrication point, I might be able to predict these points but its like balancing a ball on a knife edge, I know where the edge might be I just don't always know which way it will fall.

I will show the calculations for finding the low on the 3rd December IF the move plays out as expected.


All the best


Mike Haran
  • #187
  • Nov 26, 2012 10:51am Nov 26, 2012 10:51am
Quoting cliffedwards
Come on You guys.. Particularly you Nelly.. Lets cool it now. No need for personal abuse. And what youve written is offensive.

It was ment as a tounge in cheek analogy. Offensive no , challenging/mocking, yeh. Sorry but heard it all before and the same faux indignation from the believers.

.......................................


PS as a humorous aside .. many years ago a now famous analysist told me the secret of his success.. ... "... NEVER put a date and a price on the same sheet of paper!"
Know a lot of ' talks a good game' people do ya lol.

Anyway good luck Mike, we'll see how it pans out !
  • #188
  • Nov 26, 2012 10:54am Nov 26, 2012 10:54am
Quoting Robert DeCuir
If your cycle is off a day, where is your stop placed at? If I've read your posting correctly, you allow 50 pips.

Hello Robert,

Two ways to trade the strategy

1) Usually the moves into a turn are powerful, so on the day of the turn look to sell at R3 or buy at R3 with a 50 pip stop, even if you are a day out the stop should be good. Should you get a crazy day one day after the turn again sell R3, you have maybe lost one stop of 50 pips.

Mostly I am looking for a resistance level close by monthly or weekly, the EURUSD trade on the 13th was a good example of this, but I wanted more downside so I did not get on the move soon enough, however sometimes you have to leave your thoughts at the door and just trade.Then leave your trade and let it run.

Hope that helps

all the best


Mike Haran
  • #189
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:16pm Nov 26, 2012 7:16pm
I feel grateful for this thread. I have been touched many times by Mike's timing of turns. I didn't followed all the calls, but tried to convince them with the traditional way.
For example, Mike's Nov. 13th 9:30 turn prediction made me excited. It worked with the wedge shape and the MACD divergence. please check the two charts below. The 1st was drown on the 12th, after Mike's call. The 2nd was drown on the 14th.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.jpg Size: 209 KB
  • #190
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:14am Nov 27, 2012 4:14am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd prediction 22nd november 2012.gif Size: 51 KB


As of today I am still in the short EURUSD trade, what caught my attention was this, my turn I called on the 23rd was indeed the highest close so far, although yesterday we spiked higher into 1.30, I said that I had looked at another form of analysis and 1.30-1.31 had indeed been confirmed. I sold on the R3 level on Friday night so even though we spiked higher I was not taken out.

I also noticed that the last move up was of a very similar lengh in price and time 337 pips as opposed to 351, so what do I think will happen now, if we do get a move down I expect a reaction on the 28th November(up), however if I am right this will not exceed 1.30 and will only be short lived about a day followed by a decline until the 3rd December. From this information I will use geometric price proportions to project the low on the 3rd of December. I will also show exactly how the price level is calculated.

All the best


Mike Haran
  • #191
  • Nov 27, 2012 4:37am Nov 27, 2012 4:37am
Just for everyone and to help clarrify what I say as I know I can confuse even seasoned traders, here is a chart of where I think the next turns are:

For Nelly especially

Fall to the 28th November (Down)
Countertrend rally 1-2 days should not exceed 1.30 ends 29th or 30th(Up) add into selling position
Fall to 3rd December where a low should form (will try to anticipate exact low)
Rise to 12.12.2012

so thats the when dealt with now the where, maybe we move back to 1.28 on the 28th, its a good level and that would be my 1st target.

So 1.28 on the 28th, nice choice.


All the best


Mike Haran
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd prediction 22nd november turns 2012.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #192
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:20am Nov 27, 2012 7:20am
Quoting Mike Haran
Nelly point taken anyone can mention a 100 pip range and pull a 50 pip turn out of it. so let me clarrify this move on the 23rd. I expect it to last maybe til the 2-3rd December, to be in excess of 300 pips, possibly taking out 1.26618 before reversing back up. The more time elapses from the 23rd the more confident I become, however I expect this move to be quite sideways to down, but thats only a guess
I thought you had already established the low on 2-3rd december see above. Now its a fall to 128 by the 28th then a rise to 130 then a fall to 2-3rd December. So currently its 1.2957 at 13.11 gmt. So a drop to 1.28 gives 150 odd pips, then a rise to 1.30 gives 200, then a drop to 1.266 gives another 300 plus.

Thats 650 odd pips between now and 3rd december. I'm on around 3 gbp per pip, that will 2k profit, I'll book me summer holidays , happy days !!!
  • #193
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:34am Nov 27, 2012 7:34am
No Nelly please read the post, I said we should not exceed 1.30 I did not say we would go back there, that rally may only be 100 pips max.

Just for you Nelly
down maybe to 1.28
rally maybe to 1.29
then back down again no idea where

I meant to put a chart with it wonder why its not showing???

Ahh it is Nelly look at the chart mate, its why I bothered to put it up. Just join the dots you remember like you did when you were at school...you did go to school?
  • #194
  • Nov 27, 2012 7:50am Nov 27, 2012 7:50am
http://screencast.com/t/bILQDvbD

Just for Nelly, now I can't predict off one bar so the low cannot be calculated untill I get the first push down to the 28th, then I need to see how far it retraces up then I can hit the low on the 3rd Dec, but based on a couple of assumptions this is what I think IF this senario plays out will look like, the dates will stay the same within 1 day and the distances will change because it is based on previous moves as to how far we go
  • #195
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:00am Nov 27, 2012 8:00am
Quoting Mike Haran
No Nelly please read the post, I said we should not exceed 1.30 I did not say we would go back there, that rally may only be 100 pips max.

Just for you Nelly
down maybe to 1.28
rally maybe to 1.29
then back down again no idea where

I meant to put a chart with it wonder why its not showing???

Ahh it is Nelly look at the chart mate, its why I bothered to put it up. Just join the dots you remember like you did when you were at school...you did go to school?
'' then back down to no idea where ''

But youve already called the low as 1.266 on 2/3 december, now your saying you have no idea ???
  • #196
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:12am Nov 27, 2012 8:12am
Quoting Nelly12
'' then back down to no idea where ''

But youve already called the low as 1.266 on 2/3 december, now your saying you have no idea ???
I can't predict a price level without more swing Nelly, the low should be 2/3rd December bit hard from here to lock into a price level I know you will be looking for the exact pip as well, as of now we have to let the market do what it does.
  • #197
  • Nov 27, 2012 8:25am Nov 27, 2012 8:25am
Quoting Mike Haran
I can't predict a price level without more swing Nelly, the low should be 2/3rd December bit hard from here to lock into a price level I know you will be looking for the exact pip as well, as of now we have to let the market do what it does.
Lol Mike I like you I honestly do I know you cant but you initially said you could ...remember !!!??
  • #198
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:43am Nov 27, 2012 10:43am
So Mike, Are you thinking about abandoning the hard fall to 1.28 on the 28th you predicted ? Shall we bypass that and just go back up to nearly 1.30 ?
  • #199
  • Nov 27, 2012 11:50am Nov 27, 2012 11:50am
Nah Nelly,

lets leave the dates where they are, lets predict the low for the low on the 3~4 Dec because we should a couple of swings to make life easier. could be the 28th is big day down, solets leave that too.

I like you too Nelly you keep me on my toes
  • #200
  • Nov 28, 2012 1:35am Nov 28, 2012 1:35am
It is possible that we get quite a dramatic day today with an extreme movement, I am thinking that the afternoon session after 12 pm GMT will be where we see the action, could well be that we see the S3 levels touched. This is at

1.28082


if we do get a move down to this area we may get a bounce, but my target is still lower and the 3rd of December is stll on. I did discover another form of analysis that also confirmed the 12th December as another turn. I am going to investigate that method in more detail and it is possible that I maybe able to figure out is it a high or a low.

1.28805 is another key area to watch today, if we don't get to 1.2808.

My exact time for the volitility is 14.32 GMT, but experience has taught me that the cycles are a guide although sometimes they do hit to the minute.
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