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B.S. Trading with Kenneth Lee

  • #4,821
  • Nov 22, 2012 8:04am Nov 22, 2012 8:04am
Dear TSD,

could you help me to understand " So here’s the question: Do we have a Daily down trend and a 4HR up trend??

Answer: No … We have a Daily downtrend and a 4Hr downtrend. Reason … The HH’s and HL’s forming are forming inside the base from the previous move down from the 3595 area /4HR Supply zone above. We have a forming Drop-Base-Rise pattern. The 4Hr is resting inside the Daily (green inside blue). If you take this 4Hr down to a 30M level you will see virtually the same Supply level. This is the fine tuning KL speaks about and what you want to achieve."

Could you please draw some clarifications ont he chart, concerning your anlayse above.



Quoting TraderinSD
Attachment

The week ahead AUD

Here is a 4HR view of what may be in store.
Looking left we see a 4HR Demand bounce on Sept 26 w/a 3280 low... We then had a move back in this area that went to 3270 low... In keeping with KL’s previous statements regarding a second revisit into an area, price will tend to move deeper into the level on it seconded revisit.


[font=Calibri][size=3]What makes this interesting are the...
  • #4,822
  • Nov 23, 2012 9:54am Nov 23, 2012 9:54am
Quoting ohenry
Hi Ken...great thread thank you for your efforts.

Looking at the eurusd would I be correct in assuming that we are in a possible swap scenario based off the daily levels? Secondly if you have answered previously then my apologies: what is the role of the 50ema?
Looks like my assumption was correct...
Those that say do not know. Those that know do not say.
  • #4,823
  • Nov 23, 2012 4:48pm Nov 23, 2012 4:48pm
Ken, thanks a lot for taking the time for this long reply. I do appreciate it.

kind regards
R


Quoting Kenneth Lee
1.
you have a lot of past experience and seen, read, tried many things ...you also seem to be a kind and honest person ... so no point for someone like me to re-do all the unnecessary stuff (I know experience is never unnecessary even mistakes .. but I hope you get my point ...why not focus on something an experienced person has tried, tested and found to be the working solution for him...)

I'm sure you must be satisfied with your current trading method to some degree (it seems you had that also at the other threads you were...
  • #4,824
  • Nov 26, 2012 1:10am Nov 26, 2012 1:10am
Currently in this one.
TP is a bit close as I won't have monitor time for a while.
Will probably want to move it to just under 82.50.
Trend on higher TF also looks to be Bullish.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,825
  • Nov 26, 2012 4:47pm Nov 26, 2012 4:47pm
Quoting yoshipau
Currently in this one.
TP is a bit close as I won't have monitor time for a while.
Will probably want to move it to just under 82.50.
Trend on higher TF also looks to be Bullish.
Update to above trade.
Managed to got out at BE.
  • #4,826
  • Nov 27, 2012 10:32pm Nov 27, 2012 10:32pm
Hello. Been following ken and Sam Sieden for A long time.. Great stuff.....
I have a chat room of about 3 supply/deamand traders who trade mostly London and some Asian.... We are looking for 2-3 more traders to join our small group....
Requirements: NO NOOBS! 1. Have read Kens thead and watched some of sam's webinars and be highly movtivated on supply and demand style trading. 2. been trading for over 1.5 years 3. Be able to evaluate each others trades in a live enviroment... and hold intelligent discussions on supply and demand levels. 4. Be active during London session.. If your interested in joining us during london trade hours... send me an email [email protected] for more info!
The only system that will work is one designed by and for yourself.
  • #4,827
  • Dec 2, 2012 4:30pm Dec 2, 2012 4:30pm
Hej Ken. Big big thanks for sharing this amazing stuff. I have read all 322 pages and
think I am going to faint now. Thanks a lot.
  • #4,828
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:09am Dec 3, 2012 3:09am
Quoting bloodpoodle
Hello. Been following ken and Sam Sieden for A long time.. Great stuff.....
I have a chat room of about 3 supply/deamand traders who trade mostly London and some Asian.... We are looking for 2-3 more traders to join our small group....
Requirements: NO NOOBS! 1. Have read Kens thead and watched some of sam's webinars and be highly movtivated on supply and demand style trading. 2. been trading for over 1.5 years 3. Be able to evaluate each others trades in a live enviroment... and hold intelligent discussions on supply and demand...
Would love to join the group but I'm not qualify yet...lol
Half way on Ken's thread
Watched most of sam's webinars
I would say I'm quite motivated on this trading style but been trading this style for few months only
Could probably be active during London session, it is dinner & family time over here, but I normally have my monitor open.
Still a noob... I think.
Good luck on the group, hope I can find a similar group for myself.
At the moment I need to finish this thread first
  • #4,829
  • Dec 3, 2012 3:13am Dec 3, 2012 3:13am
Currently on this one.
Like the bull candle that break upwards but not particularly happy with so many candles on the demand level.
First TP is just below the first supply level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 12.12.03 - USDJPY ~.png Size: 80 KB
  • #4,830
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:05am Dec 3, 2012 4:05am
Quoting yoshipau
Currently on this one.
Like the bull candle that break upwards but not particularly happy with so many candles on the demand level.
First TP is just below the first supply level.
Good that USD/JPY is first to verify that demand area, because I have no idea where to draw my lines on eur/jpy there
  • #4,831
  • Dec 3, 2012 4:54am Dec 3, 2012 4:54am
Quoting yoshipau
Currently on this one.
Like the bull candle that break upwards but not particularly happy with so many candles on the demand level.
First TP is just below the first supply level.
Was a bit of a large scruffy level to take as a swing but it did bounce for 10 pips.

The move out of the level looked nice but possibly more of an exhaustion move into larger time frame supply.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,832
  • Dec 3, 2012 7:18am Dec 3, 2012 7:18am
Quoting C-12
Was a bit of a large scruffy level to take as a swing but it did bounce for 10 pips.

The move out of the level looked nice but possibly more of an exhaustion move into larger time frame supply.
Yes, exactly what I thought, but still entered the trade.... and come up with a loss.
Was going to exit at BE but somehow didn't take it.
Hit my SL, price move down one pip then rallied back up... arrgghh

But after I look the chart again, should've taken the level below it.
Would have worked great.
Don't know why I didn't put a PO down there.
  • #4,833
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:00am Dec 4, 2012 1:00am
Hi Ken, watched Sam's webinar the other day (14 Nov 2012 - Swing Trading).
Someone was asking if the red circled area is a supply level and Sam said no, it is only a pivot but he didn't really give much explanation about it.
My understanding of pivot is that they are not "fresh".
Is that not a fresh level?

What about the blue circled area?
Also not a fresh zones from the Drop-Base-Drop?

The question was on around min 08:45 if you're wondering.

Thanks Ken.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Sam 12.11.14 - Pivot.png Size: 348 KB
  • #4,834
  • Dec 4, 2012 1:09am Dec 4, 2012 1:09am
Quoting yoshipau
Hi Ken, watched Sam's webinar the other day (14 Nov 2012 - Swing Trading).
Someone was asking if the red circled area is a supply level and Sam said no, it is only a pivot but he didn't really give much explanation about it.
My understanding of pivot is that they are not "fresh".
Is that not a fresh level?

What about the blue circled area?
Also not a fresh zones from the Drop-Base-Drop?

The question was on around min 08:45 if you're wondering.

Thanks Ken.
Though it looks like a perfect RBD level the things are not that simple. Look to the left of your blue circle. Can you see a cluster of price? That's the origin of the move so the circled area is just a retracement of the zone that I mean. If you go to higher TF the blue circled area will also look like a pivot.
  • #4,835
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:12am Dec 4, 2012 9:12am
Quoting yoshipau
Hi Ken, watched Sam's webinar the other day (14 Nov 2012 - Swing Trading).
Someone was asking if the red circled area is a supply level and Sam said no, it is only a pivot but he didn't really give much explanation about it.
My understanding of pivot is that they are not "fresh".
Is that not a fresh level?

What about the blue circled area?
Also not a fresh zones from the Drop-Base-Drop?

The question was on around min 08:45 if you're wondering.

Thanks Ken.
A definition of a level is it has to come from a base of 2 to 5 candles . That is Sam's definition , I personally am more interested in the way the price is moving when it leaves a stalled area. I trade a lot of swap lines i like them . It takes a over abundance of supply to break that demand level. But as you can see to the left of the Large red candle that did break that demand level. Price had barely attempted to go beyond the 1.2780 demand base.

I always try and see a entry of a swap line that attaches to or is very close to the original Demand level that broke . ( see how I attached the orange line to the broken level) We also can get a indecision candle at these points a spinning top or doji. AS price briefly maintains equilibrium before pushing lower as demand is overwhelmed by to much supply.

That highlighted statement above is I guess the key to how i see Supply and Demand trading. It is the simple thought that we either have to many wanting to sell NOW ( supply) or we have to many wanting to buy (demand) We just need to see where they have been in the Near Past. This is what makes this style of trading pretty simple. We don't look THRU the previous swings we look only at the last swing . Once we go above or below the last swing if we don't have enough historical data on our current trading chart we then switch to a higher time frame chart till we can see the next level.

I think a good point Sam made in that webinar which is the first i have watched in months, Is the statement he made about his personal trading he does his daily intra=day trading for 3 hrs in the morning . Which if I am correct is from about 7 am eastern to 10 or so. The does swing trading based off the information on the Weekly Charts Only !!!

So those trying to add swing trading to your tool box keep that in mind. a great entry off a fast chart is still preferred but the key is that price is within a known longer time frame level. Just because price is within a daily or weekly level does not give us permission to add to losers because price reaches deeper into those bigger levels. Continue what you know best grab the quick profits , but be aware when your in a possible spot to hit a homer.

The key to be awesome is being able to risk a higher percentage of your account because you are trading with smaller stops . But if you never try and focus on the bigger picture you will always be wanting to hold trades and you may just try and hold crap trades. Always be analyzing your trades and charts . looking for the whys and hows of all the trades. Once your in a trade scan the charts look for longer time levels. look for if it breaks where it is headed. Then you have information you need to either change your bias at the proper level and turn trades around based of information clearly printed on your chart.

Just as seen on the chart if you had taken the long off the green box You would have tp'd at the red box then as you now know the green box is not fresh and that news had just came out the chances of another long off that level was slim. But we also see that once price did break it went sideways for almost 2 days. on the second day the price SETTLED a bit lower below 1.2750 so when it came back to the swap line I would have seen this price action as a fianl attempt to regain ground above the swap line . But clearly supply wasn't having it and we can see by the spinning tops and doji's. That a short chance would be worth it.

I personally enter early most times but there are those times like that where even after a long time you can still join the trade. Had over 3 hrs to join that short, Those are some of the off hour entries I take because of the Price Action and where price is sitting right at a area I am interested in . So it wasn't a " LEVEL" it was a spot I like.
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,836
  • Dec 4, 2012 9:41am Dec 4, 2012 9:41am
Wanted to expand on something . The reason I have decided to trade the 30 min chart time frame. Is that it gives clean areas and the targets are bigger than a fast chart . For me the issue is say on a 15 or 5 min chart yes there will be many more entries but also just as many reasons to get out. So as price stalls at all those minor areas which we might call pivots not levels we are tempted to bail out of good or even great trades.

In the last post I showed that swap line entry price action was messy going into the trade and even after the entry. But proper trade management would have doubled your profit on that trade. The turning point or PIVOT (hehe) was another swap line on the daily chart ,

So maybe pick the tp areas off a longer chart and enter off the fast . But as soon as you get that perfect entry maybe switch your chart to the slower one with the bigger profit potential , no they won't all be big winners but you maybe be surprised how just one home run a week can change your trading life.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,837
  • Dec 4, 2012 10:46am Dec 4, 2012 10:46am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
So maybe pick the tp areas off a longer chart and enter off the fast . But as soon as you get that perfect entry maybe switch your chart to the slower one with the bigger profit potential , no they won't all be big winners but you maybe be surprised how just one home run a week can change your trading life.
Absolutely Ken, letting those trades run in sync with the bigger picture can do wonders for you account. It also takes a lot of pressure off, meaning you don't need to spend as much time grinding it out on the PC.

I caught an absolute peach of an entry on the USDJPY on Friday that's still running, I noticed it was in larger time frame supply so just let this run.
  • #4,838
  • Edited 11:23am Dec 4, 2012 11:04am | Edited 11:23am
Quoting C-12
Absolutely Ken, letting those trades run in sync with the bigger picture can do wonders for you account. It also takes a lot of pressure off, meaning you don't need to spend as much time grinding it out on the PC.

I caught an absolute peach of an entry on the USDJPY on Friday that's still running, I noticed it was in larger time frame supply so just let this run.

Awesome now make that a habit to look for that bigger trade. The funny thing is that , this is the way we are suppose to plan trades anyway. Strat with the big picture and work our way down to the faster charts , But we all seem to get tunnel vision and find ourselves happy to become ninja scalping traders. A combination of Fast day trading speculator . and cautious long term investment trader would be the perfect match .

Trade well , and great going on your U/J trade.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #4,839
  • Dec 4, 2012 11:32am Dec 4, 2012 11:32am
Quoting Kenneth Lee
Awesome now make that a habit to look for that bigger trade. The funny thing is that , this is the way we are suppose to plan trades anyway. Strat with the big picture and work our way down to the faster charts , But we all seem to get tunnel vision and find ourselves happy to become ninja scalping traders. A combination of Fast day trading speculator . and cautious long term investment trader would be the perfect match .

Trade well , and great going on your U/J trade.
Cheers Ken

I now have an entire demo account for each pair so I've always got the bigger picture in view at all times (weekly and daily also), even when I'm trading off an M1/M5.

Think I'm going to buy a couple of more monitors this week so I don't have to flick around so much.

I no longer have tunnel vision so there's no reason not to let these run if they have room.
  • #4,840
  • Dec 5, 2012 4:25pm Dec 5, 2012 4:25pm
Quoting Kenneth Lee
....

So maybe pick the tp areas off a longer chart and enter off the fast . But as soon as you get that perfect entry maybe switch your chart to the slower one with the bigger profit potential , no they won't all be big winners but you maybe be surprised how just one home run a week can change your trading life.
Thanks for the great reply Ken!!!

This is also one of my problem, too scared of letting profit run so TP'd too early most of the time.
Sometimes I even go the other way around, found a good level on higher TF then on the trade I took my profit based on a much lower TF when price starts to turned a bit . Then watch the price going my way again.
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