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  • #41
  • Nov 6, 2012 12:51am Nov 6, 2012 12:51am
Quoting bobowang
Tradestar1, you are not trading this method, right? still backtesting it? You changed the SL parameters this year to optimize the results.

In this way, you can't find the working strategy!
In Oct, 2011, you optimized the SL parameter to 1*ATR(20) for the period from Jan,2011 to Oct 2011. So,you got a very good result in that period. But the forward test result was not good (Nov, 2011 to Dec, 2011). And in this year, you show us another optimized results for the period from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in post 32, with different SL parameters (1.5*ATR(20),...
Well yes I am trading it and you really don't understand what is happening here, Not even sure why I am bothering to reply to your post actually.

Any way regarding the SLs,,,, as a rule the more room you can give the market to breath the better your results will be, and yes there are exceptions to every rule.... Over all I have used the 100 pip SL for the EUR/USD.

So here we are stats for the year so far......

YTD stats and trades 5,5 with 100 pip SL part 1

YTD stats and trades 5,5 with 100 pip SL part 2

YTD stats 10,10 with 100 pip SL

10,10 trades

These systems are the results and minor modifications of over 7 years of testing, Backward and forward .... There have been losing months but so far never a losing year, which is not to say there won't be one, it just hasn't happened yet.

With that said keep this thought in mind As a friend of mine says .."Your biggest drawdown is in front of you"

Happy trading
  • #42
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:59am Nov 6, 2012 9:59am
Quoting bobowang
Tradestar1, you are not trading this method, right? still backtesting it? You changed the SL parameters this year to optimize the results.

In this way, you can't find the working strategy!
In Oct, 2011, you optimized the SL parameter to 1*ATR(20) for the period from Jan,2011 to Oct 2011. So,you got a very good result in that period. But the forward test result was not good (Nov, 2011 to Dec, 2011). And in this year, you show us another optimized results for the period from Jan 2012 to Sep 2012 in post 32, with different SL parameters (1.5*ATR(20),...
this system is very robust.i have traded it,although different parameters and it works great.i also trade a version of it on the hour charts and 4h,though with an intelligent pattern recognition system.

basically this system beats hands down all of the trendfollowing funds out there...but then again tradestar's skill is incredible for extracting profit from this system.i myself discovered i am not a trendfollower as such that is why i modified the system to be able to trade lower timeframes.

i will be putting a journal soon to show the ability of this system on lower timeframes.

thanks tradestar1.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #43
  • Nov 6, 2012 12:14pm Nov 6, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting pemully
this system is very robust.i have traded it,although different parameters and it works great.i also trade a version of it on the hour charts and 4h,though with an intelligent pattern recognition system.

basically this system beats hands down all of the trendfollowing funds out there...but then again tradestar's skill is incredible for extracting profit from this system.i myself discovered i am not a trendfollower as such that is why i modified the system to be able to trade lower timeframes.

i will be putting a journal soon to show the ability...
Thank you for the kind words Pemully, I am glad you are able to get results on the shorter TFs, I know it works there as well but I just don't care to trade the shorter TFs personally.

Keep up the good work.

Regards,
William
  • #44
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:28am Nov 8, 2012 12:28am
Quoting tradestar1
Thank you for the kind words Pemully, I am glad you are able to get results on the shorter TFs, I know it works there as well but I just don't care to trade the shorter TFs personally.

Keep up the good work.

Regards,
William
its you who deserve the thanks...before reading your journal i was stuck trying to find an edge.i was thinking that i have to develop a very complex system to be able to compete with the billion dollar funds and extremely talented professionals,every system i developed was lackluster.there is no way i could have believed a two way system always in the market could work.i followed your trades closely and as they say seeing is believing.i also read van tharps book which really helped me understand the mechanics of money management.i believe you more than halved my learning curve.

have you considered trading grain futures especially soy beans and energies like natural gas...the performance is similar to EU and they are uncorrelated.this can vastly improve the system returns.i am growing my account to be able to participate in futures.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #45
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:42am Nov 8, 2012 12:42am
Quoting pemully
its you who deserve the thanks...before reading your journal i was stuck trying to find an edge.i was thinking that i have to develop a very complex system to be able to compete with the billion dollar funds and extremely talented professionals,every system i developed was lackluster.there is no way i could have believed a two way system always in the market could work.i followed your trades closely and as they say seeing is believing.i also read van tharps book which really helped me understand the mechanics of money management.i believe you more...
I am very happy you have been helped and encouraged by this simple method.

I have not gotten into futures but I know this method will work there as well as I have looked at and tested quite a few different markets..... simplicity is usually very robust and way underrated.

I wish you continued success. Feel free to contact me anytime.

Regards,
William
  • #46
  • Nov 8, 2012 1:53pm Nov 8, 2012 1:53pm
Hello William,

I would also like to thank you for introducing me to this style of trading.

I am using the 5 WMA 5 SMA cross on Eur/Usd, Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud.
1% per position, 100 S/L, move to B/E at 1 ATR and then trail it at 1.5 ATR.
Adding positions on each pullback.

What other pairs do you trade the 10 x 10 or 5 x 5 on William or Pemully? Aud/Cad and Aud/Nzd seem to trend well sometimes.

I do find the swap rates pricey on Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud when buying.
  • #47
  • Nov 8, 2012 7:18pm Nov 8, 2012 7:18pm
Quoting normtold
Hello William,

I would also like to thank you for introducing me to this style of trading.

I am using the 5 WMA 5 SMA cross on Eur/Usd, Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud.
1% per position, 100 S/L, move to B/E at 1 ATR and then trail it at 1.5 ATR.
Adding positions on each pullback.

What other pairs do you trade the 10 x 10 or 5 x 5 on William or Pemully? Aud/Cad and Aud/Nzd seem to trend well sometimes.

I do find the swap rates pricey on Eur/Aud and Gbp/Aud when buying.

Hello Norm,
Looks like you have a good handle on the method, keep up the good work.
Here is a list of what I am currently trading......

Just look for pairs that have a history of trendiness...hmm is that a word?....

As far as swap rates, they matter little if you have a good trend running.

Regards,
Willaim
Attached Image
  • #48
  • Nov 9, 2012 3:41am Nov 9, 2012 3:41am
Hello William,

Thanks for your list of pairs, I did not realise that you traded so many.

I dropped Gbp/Usd a while back as I was getting chopped in and out, maybe I was too hasty.

And I ignored Usd/Chf because of it's close correlation to Eur/Usd, same reason with Aud/Chf and Eur/Aud.

Thanks again,

Norman
  • #49
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:11am Nov 9, 2012 9:11am
Quoting normtold
Hello William,

Thanks for your list of pairs, I did not realise that you traded so many.

I dropped Gbp/Usd a while back as I was getting chopped in and out, maybe I was too hasty.

And I ignored Usd/Chf because of it's close correlation to Eur/Usd, same reason with Aud/Chf and Eur/Aud.

Thanks again,

Norman
the AUD/USD, NZD,USD,AND GBP/NZD are pretty brutal at this time and have been for over a month, the GBP/NZD has been horrible since aug and it is just recently that I have gotten back in it... cautiously......lol
Anyway those are the pairs that seem to have a history of good trends for the most part.
Regards,
William
  • #50
  • Nov 26, 2012 6:57am Nov 26, 2012 6:57am
the system is working great.I am still learning to trust it more.I want to reach a point where I can follow the rules 100%.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #51
  • Nov 26, 2012 7:47am Nov 26, 2012 7:47am
Quoting pemully
the system is working great.I am still learning to trust it more.I want to reach a point where I can follow the rules 100%.
These last couple months have been pretty tough.... Hang in there another good trend is on it's way...
Remember, Discipline, Consistency, and risk management are the keys to the kingdom of trading.
  • #52
  • Nov 26, 2012 10:04am Nov 26, 2012 10:04am
Quoting tradestar1
These last couple months have been pretty tough.... Hang in there another good trend is on it's way...
Remember, Discipline, Consistency, and risk management are the keys to the kingdom of trading.
my main issue is trying to overthink the system especially as it regards trailing stops...Ive been cutting winners short by aggressive trailing stops. working on that.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #53
  • Edited 1:03am Jan 14, 2013 12:49am | Edited 1:03am
Well for any that are interested here are the results for the EUR/USD 2012 trades.......

Stats and trade list 2012
Stats and trade list continuation
  • #54
  • Jan 14, 2013 5:55am Jan 14, 2013 5:55am
Quoting tradestar1
Well for any that are interested here are the results for the EUR/USD 2012 trades.......

Stats and trade list 2012
Stats and trade list continuation
great. let's see what trend following has for the year 2013. 2012 was a very hard year and Titans like JWH closed shop.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #55
  • Jan 25, 2013 6:22am Jan 25, 2013 6:22am
Hi Tradestar,

Do you use ATR period 20?

Using period 20 on GbpNzd the ATR is 171, can you please tell me if you use an initial stoploss of 100 or 1 ATR?

For AudCad ATR 20 is 54 pips, what initial stoploss do you use for that pair?

Thank-you in advance.
  • #56
  • Jan 25, 2013 8:57am Jan 25, 2013 8:57am
Thank you William for the update. Great system for those of us who live in the western USA, work days and sleep nights. - Richard
  • #57
  • Edited 10:49am Jan 25, 2013 9:58am | Edited 10:49am
Quoting normtold
Hi Tradestar,

Do you use ATR period 20? Yes ATR 20 period.....

Using period 20 on GbpNzd the ATR is 171, can you please tell me if you use an initial stoploss of 100 or 1 ATR?

For AudCad ATR 20 is 54 pips, what initial stoploss do you use for that pair?

ATR is a measure of volatility so if the ATR for GBP/NZD is 171 your risk should be the same as it is for the AUD/CAD even though it's ATR is only 54.
In other words if the amount you are willing to lose is $50.00 on a trade then the 171 ATR of the GBP/NZD should equal $50.00..... the same for AUD/CAD, those 54 pips should equal $50.00...
Now a little on how to make this system work a little better for you.... Make your trade size "Comfortable"..... What I mean by that is start out by making the this potential loss small enough that you can pull the trigger for EVERY trade and not feel excess pain, This will help you build confidence in the method and as you build confidence you can then start increasing position size .... Remember, DISCIPLINE, CONSISTENCY, and RISK MANAGEMENT.
Thank-you in advance.
Hope this helps answer your questions.
Good trading to you.

William
  • #58
  • Jan 27, 2013 12:35pm Jan 27, 2013 12:35pm
Many thanks for the reply.

Currently whether I am using an 84 pip stoploss (AusCad) or a 288 pip stoploss (EurJpy) I am risking 1% of my account on each pair I trade.

Sometimes I will be stopped out of a long position but the 10 WMA and 10 SMA have not crossed down yet and therefore when the candle closes I will open another long position often at a higher price so I was wondering in your many years of trading this method if you found it is best to set the initial stoploss at 1 or 1.5 or 2 ATR.

I guess it is swings and roundabouts, sometimes the bigger stoploss will keep us in a trade longer but then the smaller stoploss saves us if price turns around.

Also from the list of pairs you listed in post 47 have you found any that are not suitable for this method and keep stopping you out without any good trends?
I personally found GbpUsd to be too choppy, many 2 or 3 days runs so I dropped it and currently am trading Eur/Usd Eur/Usd Gbp/Aud Aud/Jpy Eur/Jpy Aud/Cad and Aud/Nzd

The results you show in your 3 journal threads are for Eur/Usd and am curious how the others performed over the years.

All the best and thanks again for introducing me to this type of trading.
  • #59
  • Sep 3, 2013 9:33am Sep 3, 2013 9:33am
Hi William. I notice that there will sometimes be a cross indicating a sell but one or both moving averages are still angled up. An example would have been on August 9 using 10 period moving averages. Would it degrade the performance of the system if we waited to enter until both were pointing down? - Richard.
  • #60
  • Dec 4, 2013 6:55pm Dec 4, 2013 6:55pm
Quoting tradestar1
{quote} Hope this helps answer your questions. Good trading to you. William

hello tradestar1, long time no hear ! how is your trading going ?
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