Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 1833 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #36,641
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:00am Nov 23, 2012 6:00am
Quoting fti
wow nice.
greece? or sg?

good foto skills.

regards
It's a panoramic view of Venice, Italy

Good fotoshop skills u mean. It was kinda overexposed, so I adjusted with lightroom
  • #36,642
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:03am Nov 23, 2012 6:03am
hourly chart. i was long at point A 1.2813 with a scout then overnight position went down 1.2740,thinking that the impusle wave to the down side started i killed the scout at point B and enter a short position at point C 1.2755 but position went against and try to rescue the poistion but unable to becos of my greed and fear and bite the bullet at 1.2802.with about 6% loss.
my mistakes..
1.overnight position.
2.not having patience to wait before reversing my position 180 degrees.
3.dont have much time at the time of rescue as i have to leave for my work so was in hurrry.
4.market gave me fair chance to rescue but not present in front of the computer[left the position to my poor wife to manage.she kept me informed but if ur not present on the field,u will suffer.
5.i think i was in hurry to recover my last week loses hence not given much thought before etaking the position.
6. overconfident about my skills to rescue the position if something goes wrong.
7.should tone down my confidence level about my skill as i am still learning to dance,it hasnt become second nature as driving the car.it will take much practice.
8.i took too big position for my equity [its basically i was in hurry to recover forgeting recovery should be an ant work.
9.no place to be an hero in market place,need more work on my mindset.
8.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my fiasco.gif Size: 50 KB
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,643
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:05am Nov 23, 2012 6:05am
sry tt i'm flooding the thread with irrelevant post

just can't contain my joy that fti is ok

I'll stop here n let other peeps post their well wishes and qns
  • #36,644
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:08am Nov 23, 2012 6:08am
Quoting dii
Sir, you mentioned the above last time, but I dont really understand it and seems there is no discussion yet on it, would like to ask you about it. The only thing I can come up with to explain the portion in blue u are referring to is

i.e say In a down move, bears should be afraid of other fellow bears re-positioning/reversing/taking profit (withdrawing support/resistance) during the move, Especially the big players? But I cannot think of how I can make use of this.




Secondly is the 1st part of the trading & business story, I get the...

your ie is partially correct.
when markets in a run, if you see fast draw backs is normally profitaking.
you see, dealers trades BIG.
so they not like ride pips for 100s of pips, unless som big event is on.
try calculate 10 pips on 10 mio position.
so if you see quick drop backs is not because of met bears. Is because fellow bull peeing at prices.
how you make use of it is register the volitility , how many pips and how fast, if it lingers then mostly is more BIg guns having their beers.
so you shouldn't chase the prices. find stategic positioning with fingers on the trigger, just in case.


yes, dealers job description is to make markets and try secure the spread profits, the brokers doing the same, leaning on the dealers.
so must analyse whats happening and impliment appropriate strategies.
if having positions easily scuttered, then is behaving like duck stops.And if you had been profiled you will be victim.
so money management is intigral part of your strategies.

the right mindset is be kind, even when aggressive.
never get into a position size that makes you nervous make mistakes or force to do impulsive actions.
This can be achieved by doing ant work. and only use aggressive attacks only when have reserves of foreign cap that you can afford waste.


regards
  • #36,645
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:09am Nov 23, 2012 6:09am
Hi fti,

Do you trade intraday price pattern?

Do you think it is not a good idea to trade an intraday price pattern across London Open?

cheers,

kk007

P.S. Not sure is it appropriate to ask this type of question on this thread.
  • #36,646
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:10am Nov 23, 2012 6:10am
Quoting N_Trader
Attachment

Doc says too early to tell.. but I'll know in 1 months time

Vacation was awesome, but I actually check the this thread a couple of times n got quite worried about you. Finally, I came to terms and tell myself that whatever it may be, you are already in good hands
ai ya no show wife insides here la
take down.

congratulations.
best save money buy much cigars and wait distribute or smoke them all, just jesting.

Much congratulation, and may you have happiness abundant.


regards
  • #36,647
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:17am Nov 23, 2012 6:17am
Quoting fti
ai ya no show wife insides here la
take down.

congratulations.
best save money buy much cigars and wait distribute or smoke them all, just jesting.

Much congratulation, and may you have happiness abundant.


regards
heee... taken off the thread liao.

I'm saving up now. Different perspective of life now. Thanks chief. for everything. few months back i got bitten again by the market for getting too confident. Now I understand what you meant when you said that we can't have the river in the bucket. When we do that, it's no longer the river. We need to let it go n let it flow. that's when we will have the river

May you have peace n joy in abundance too!
  • #36,648
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:20am Nov 23, 2012 6:20am
Quoting kk007
Hi fti,

Do you trade intraday price pattern?

Do you think it is not a good idea to trade an intraday price pattern across London Open?

cheers,

kk007

P.S. Not sure is it appropriate to ask this type of question on this thread.
what you mean by intraday.
1 min is intraday, 5 mins is intraday 1 hour is intraday, 24 hours is intraday.

you want trade ldn opening is fine.
but can you see the order books?
so how would you know what the dealers are planning?
sure can scout around, if you like and get a feel whats cooking.

There's no rule say cannot trade any time frame, just that you must trade time frames you had scouted out so at least you have a ball park feel of what happening on the books.



regards
  • #36,649
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:22am Nov 23, 2012 6:22am
Quoting fti
what you mean by intraday.
5 min is intraday, 5 mins is intraday 1 hour is intraday, 24 hours is intraday.

you want trade ldn opening is fine.
but can you see the order books?
so how would you know what the dealers are planning?
sure can scout around, if you like and get a feel whats cooking.


regards
hehe! thx for replying

I am talking about 5 min or 15 min price pattern. and I don't check order books...
  • #36,650
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:25am Nov 23, 2012 6:25am
Quoting N_Trader
heee... taken off the thread liao.

I'm saving up now. Different perspective of life now. Thanks chief. for everything. few months back i got bitten again by the market for getting too confident. Now I understand what you meant when you said that we can't have the river in the bucket. When we do that, it's no longer the river. We need to let it go n let it flow. that's when we will have the river

May you have peace n joy in abundance too!
ai ya.
are you rushing?
don't, take it slow , ants work build and preservatiuon of cap is very important.
build on what you build and grow compounded.
never be overly confident, neither be afraid.

regards
  • #36,651
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:32am Nov 23, 2012 6:32am
Quoting kk007
hehe! thx for replying

I am talking about 5 min or 15 min price pattern. and I don't check order books...
you are commercial member, need i tell you?
start at 5 the find feel
when scouts are out
look all over
find out what happening elsewhere is it crosses bumbing things
is it real buying coming across, is it CBs in the market, is it event, is it reflected in other time frames,

otherwise what you doing when begin have scouts out
keep watching scouts crawl no going do any info for you.

since you cemmercial member then you should also go market and see if you can find out which cat is in which cat is out.

regards
  • #36,652
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:32am Nov 23, 2012 6:32am
Quoting fti
ai ya.
are you rushing?
don't, take it slow , ants work build and preservatiuon of cap is very important.
build on what you build and grow compounded.
never be overly confident, neither be afraid.

regards
Yes. I was rushing... I know where the problem lies. I do ants work for months and build up lots of foreign cap, but eventually, i couldn't keep my scorpions in check. I think the more I focus on making money, the more mistakes I make. On the contrary, the more I focus on surviving and just going with the flow, the more profitable I become. I seem to be trapped in a vicious cycle of - patience -> ant's work -> success -> bigger success -> greed/pride -> failure -> back to patience -> ant's work.

Regards
  • #36,653
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:36am Nov 23, 2012 6:36am
Quoting N_Trader
Yes. I was rushing... I know where the problem lies. I do ants work for months and build up lots of foreign cap, but eventually, i couldn't keep my scorpions in check. I think the more I focus on making money, the more mistakes I make. On the contrary, the more I focus on surviving and just going with the flow, the more profitable I become. I seem to be trapped in a vicious cycle of - patience -> ant's work -> success -> bigger success -> greed/pride -> failure -> back to patience -> ant's work.

Regards
well thats called experience.
then you begin to do that which works, and watch em scorpions.
with more experience , then you know when the scorpions shows up, then go take a shower, or anything that helps check them.

is the way we train ourselves.
by doing.

no worry as long as we learn the mistakes, and cap is intact.
what can go wrong?


regards
  • #36,654
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:38am Nov 23, 2012 6:38am
Quoting N_Trader
Yes. I was rushing... I know where the problem lies. I do ants work for months and build up lots of foreign cap, but eventually, i couldn't keep my scorpions in check. I think the more I focus on making money, the more mistakes I make. On the contrary, the more I focus on surviving and just going with the flow, the more profitable I become. I seem to be trapped in a vicious cycle of - patience -> ant's work -> success -> bigger success -> greed/pride -> failure -> back to patience -> ant's work.

Regards
thats exactly my feeling as well,no consistency in the performance.anyway ur baby is cute .it appears like a boy to me lol regards
Allah has permitted trade and has forbidden interest [koran]
  • #36,655
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:38am Nov 23, 2012 6:38am
Quoting fti
you are commercial member, need i tell you?
start at 5 the find feel
when scouts are out
look all over
find out what happening elsewhere is it crosses bumbing things
is it real buying coming across, is it CBs in the market, is it event, is it reflected in other time frames,

otherwise what you doing when begin have scouts out
keep watching scouts crawl no going do any info for you.

since you cemmercial member then you should also go market and see if you can find out which cat is in which cat is out.

regards
One important thing... Commerical members are someone who cannot trade for a living... and instead to help others to trade to make a living...
  • #36,656
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:41am Nov 23, 2012 6:41am
Quoting kk007
One important thing... Commerical members are someone who cannot trade for a living... and instead to help others to trade to make a living...
huh?
isn't that contridicting.
if you can't do, what can you help?
any way you are an honest conmmercial member.
oh you back office ops?

upgrade yourself is good.
Do it and help teach others.
when you do it, then you will know where you can help.

welcome to the thread.

regards
  • #36,657
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:45am Nov 23, 2012 6:45am
Quoting fti
well thats called experience.
then you begin to do that which works, and watch em scorpions.
with more experience , then you know when the scorpions shows up, then go take a shower, or anything that helps check them.

is the way we train ourselves.
by doing.

no worry as long as we learn the mistakes, and cap is intact.
what can go wrong?


regards
Thanks chief. I try not lose the balls mostly.

At least now I've learned where is a level that I am comfortable to work with.

The irony about experience is that you can never learn it except by experiencing it for yourself.

xie xie ni, lao shi
  • #36,658
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:48am Nov 23, 2012 6:48am
Quoting drzakir123
thats exactly my feeling as well,no consistency in the performance.anyway ur baby is cute .it appears like a boy to me lol regards
thanks Dr

I think the problem of consistency is something that many on this thread goes thru', except for the blessed few who suffer less to learn it.
  • #36,659
  • Edited 7:04am Nov 23, 2012 6:49am | Edited 7:04am
Quoting drzakir123
thats exactly my feeling as well,no consistency in the performance.anyway ur baby is cute .it appears like a boy to me lol regards
ok way around that, self destructive scorpion.
when you make pips park it elsewhere.
not allow yourself liberty have too much dream space.
Only work space.
Use as reserves, best if you assign controller.
if you need draw from that stockpile , you need explain to controller.
keeps you humble and hungry.

annually or bi annually
reset to new limits, working it carefully.

may help control the itch.

regards

this the difference of dealers and traders mindsets.
dealers they assigned limits, and loss capacities
everyday they start fresh on same limit structures.
and book profits reverts to records for performance bonuses.
it not matters if they piled up lots profits.
if they take loss, they checked by management.
a few checks and they get lineoffed for some time.
take a trading break reset their mindset.

when they hot, no one disturbs.
they keep working within their limits.

they contineously hot
next year they get extra bar on their shoulders and their new book
is doubled.
  • #36,660
  • Nov 23, 2012 6:50am Nov 23, 2012 6:50am
Quoting fti
upgrade yourself is good.
Do it and help teach others.
when you do it, then you will know where you can help.

welcome to the thread.
That is why I come to ask you... but still feeling confused with my question on mind....
Btw, you don't trade classic intraday price pattern at all?


P.S. It sounds that you are a successful trader.... how long did you try to accept this? What was your reason to join the game?
8 traders viewing now