GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Today - Thursday, November 22, 2012


12:00 AM Thursday's economic calendar : U.S. Market's closed.



Happy Thanksgiving !

The Forex Three-Session System

November 15 2012 | Investopedia



One of the greatest features of the foreign exchange market is that it is open 24 hours a day.
This allows investors from around the world to trade during normal business hours, after work or even in the middle of the night.
However, not all times are created equal. Although there is always a market for this most liquid of asset classes, there are times when price action is consistently volatile and periods when it is muted. What's more, different currency pairs exhibit varying activity over certain times of the trading day due to the general demographic of those market participants who are online at the time. In this article, we will cover the major trading sessions, explore what kind of market activity can be expected over the different periods, and show how this knowledge can be adapted into a trading plan.

Breaking a 24-Hour Market into Manageable Trading Sessions
While a 24-hour market offers a considerable advantage for many institutional and individual traders, because it guarantees liquidity and the opportunity to trade at any conceivable time, it also has its drawbacks. Although currencies can be traded anytime, a trader can only monitor a position for so long.
This means that there will be times of missed opportunities, or worse - when a jump in volatility will lead the spot to move against an established position when the trader isn't around. To minimize this risk, a trader needs to be aware of when the market is typically volatile and decide what times are best for his or her strategy and trading style.

Traditionally, the market is separated into three sessions during which activity peaks: the Asian, European and North American sessions.
More casually, these three periods are also referred to as the Tokyo, London and New York sessions. These names are used interchangeably, as the three cities represent the major financial centers for each of the regions. The markets are most active when these three powerhouses are conducting business as most banks and corporations make their day-to-day transactions and there is a greater concentration of speculators online. Now let's take a closer look at each of these sessions.

Asian Session (Tokyo)
When liquidity is restored to the forex (or, FX) market after the weekend passes, the Asian markets are naturally the first to see action.
Unofficially, activity from this part of the world is represented by the Tokyo capital markets, which are live from midnight to 6 a.m. Greenwich Mean Time. However, there are many other countries with considerable pull that are present during this period including China, Australia, New Zealand and Russia, among others. Considering how scattered these markets are, it makes sense that the beginning and end of the Asian session are stretched beyond the standard Tokyo hours. Allowing for these different markets' activity, Asian hours are often considered to run between 11 p.m. and 8 a.m. GMT.

European Session (London)
Later in the trading day, just before the Asian trading hours come to a close, the European session takes over in keeping the currency market active.
This FX time zone is very dense and includes a number of major financial markets that could stand in as the symbolic capital.

However, London ultimately takes the honors in defining the parameters for the European session. Official business hours in London run between 7:30 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. GMT. Once again, this trading period is expanded due to other capital markets' presence (including Germany and France) before the official open in the U.K.; while the end of the session is pushed back as volatility holds until the London fix after the close. Therefore, European hours are typically seen as running from 7 a.m. to 4 p.m. GMT.

North American Session (New York)
By the time the North American session comes online, the Asian markets have already been closed for a number of hours, but the day is only halfway through for European traders. The Western session is dominated by activity in the U.S., with a few contributions from Canada, Mexico and a number of countries in South America. As such, it comes as little surprise that activity in New York City marks the high in volatility and participation for the session.

Taking into account the early activity in financial futures, commodity trading and the concentration of economic releases, the North American hours unofficially begin at noon GMT. With a considerable gap between the close of the U.S. markets and open of the Asian trading, a lull in liquidity sets the close of New York exchange trading at 8 p.m. GMT as the North American session closes.

Taking into account the early activity in financial futures, commodity trading and the concentration of economic releases, the North American hours unofficially begin at noon GMT. With a considerable gap between the close of the U.S. markets and open of the Asian trading, a lull in liquidity sets the close of New York exchange trading at 8 p.m. GMT as the North American session closes.

Session Major Market Hours (GMT) Asian Session Tokyo 11 p.m. to 8 a.m.
European Session London 7 a.m. to 4 p.m.
North American Session New York noon to 8 p.m.

Figure 1: Major market session hours


http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...X-3market1.gif
Figure 1: Three-market session overlap


Measuring Market Activity
Now that we know when the Asian, European and North American sessions are and what markets comprise each, we should discuss how time and participation affect price action for different currencies.

As logic would suggest, a currency is typically most active when its own markets are open. For example, the euro, British pound and Swiss franc see higher volatility on average when the European session is active. This is the case because banks, businesses and traders from any specific country will use their domestic currency in the majority of their foreign exchange transactions.

What's more, it is more difficult for a market participant to buy or sell a currency from a region where all the major banks are closed.
To illustrate this point, if a U.S. bank wants to make a multibillion-dollar currency exchange for euros, it would likely do so when European banks are online and there is a greater pool of liquidity. Otherwise, large orders in a thin market would result in prices moving away from the ideal entry point as the order is processed.

The above example further highlights another truism for the currency markets: price action is usually greatest when the sessions overlap.
When traders, banks and business from two different sessions are online, there are more participants in the market and, therefore, a greater level of liquidity is available. Figure 3 (below) charts the average hourly range for the seven majors in the two years through 2007. A quick glance at this graph reveals what we would expect - two notable peaks in price action. The first rise in price action occurs around the closing hours of the Asian session and open of the European session (around 7 a.m. GMT). Before this peak, the markets in the Far East are carrying currency volatility alone. After the Japanese session closes, there is a clear drop in the ranges for most of the majors, as Asian liquidity quickly evaporates and leaves traders in Europe to keep the fires of volatility stoked.

The second and larger jump in activity is seen when the North American and European sessions converge (between noon and 4 p.m. GMT).
This four-hour overlap is far greater than the Asian/European sessions' own union, and volatility clearly benefits from the greater period of liquidity. However, from this period we can see there is another factor at work in driving price action - otherwise there would not be a consistent dip across the majors at 1 p.m. GMT. This particular influence is the presence of fundamental releases.

Most of the top market moving indicators for the U.S. cross the wires at either noon or 2 p.m. GMT and thereby boost the average range for those times. In addition, while the influence of the U.S. data is the clearest example here, fundamentals from other key markets certainly influence price action as well. Another obvious instance of this dynamic is the typical release time for U.K. data (around 8 a.m. GMT), which coincides with a sharp peak in GBP/USD activity that goes beyond the Asian/European session overlap and cooling of the other major pairs.

http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...X-3market2.gif

Figure 3: Currency market volatility

In contrast, if the pair is a cross made of currencies that are most actively traded during Asian and European hours (like EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY), there will be a greater response to the Asian/European session overlaps and a less dramatic increase in price action during the European/U.S. sessions' concurrence. Of course, the presence of scheduled event risk for each currency will still have a substantial influence on activity, regardless of the pair or its components' respective sessions.


http://i.investopedia.com/inv/articl...X-3market3.gif

Figure 4: A greater response to Asian/Europian session overlapsis shown
in pairs that are actively traded during Asian and European hours.


How to Weave This into a Trading Strategy
There are few things more important to successful trading than market activity. Even the best strategy could fall apart if it is applied during the wrong session. For long-term or fundamental traders, trying to establish a position during a pair's most active hours could lead to a poor entry price, a missed entry or a trade that counters the strategy's rules. On the other hand, for short-term traders who do not hold a position overnight, volatility is vital.

The Bottom Line
When trading currencies, a market participant must first determine whether high or low volatility will work best with their personality and trading style.
If more substantial price action is desired, trading the session overlaps or typical economic release times may be the preferable option.
The next step would be to decide what times are best to trade given the bias for volatility. Following with a desire for high volatility, a trader will then need to determine what time frames are most active for the pair he or she is looking to trade.

When considering the EUR/USD pair, the European/U.S. session crossover will find the most movement.
However, there are usually alternatives, and a trader should balance the need for favorable market conditions with physical well-being. If a market participant from the U.S. prefers to trade the active hours for GBP/JPY, he or she will have to wake up very early in the morning to keep up with the market. If this person has a regular day job, this could lead to exhaustion and errors in judgment when trading. A better alternative for this particular trader may be trading during the European/U.S. session overlap, where volatility is still elevated, even though Japanese markets are offline.



Source : Investopedia

EUR in H4 Chart - Update


Still Stronger BULLISH Trend...

Break in GRAY Trendline's or UPward to @ Price 1.2878

EUR in Daily Chart - Update


Continued Upward to 1.2906 or Higher 1.2920

GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares gain as economic outlook improves

Thu Nov 22, 2012 8:09am EST


* World shares extend gains for fourth straight day
* Euro supported by optimism over a Greece aid deal
* China PMI rise boosts confidence in global growth outlook
* U.S. markets closed for Thanksgivings Day

By Richard Hubbard


LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - World share markets extended a week-long rally on Thursday as manufacturing surveys in China and the United States boosted confidence over global growth and euro zone data at least didn't worsen the already weak outlook for the region.
The euro also touched a three-week high against the dollar on renewed optimism that a Greek funding deal will eventually be agreed, and despite the data indicating the region's economy is on course for its deepest downturn since early 2009.
"The driving factors behind euro/dollar are that the global macroeconomic backdrop seems to be improving and people are pricing out the tail risk on Greece," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of currency research at Danske Bank.

The euro rose 0.4 percent to $1.2884, its highest level since Nov. 2.

The prospect of a deal to help Athens was boosted when German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Wednesday, after the failure of overnight talks, that an agreement was possible at a euro zone ministers meeting on Monday.
The hopes for a Greek deal, combined with the better economic data and a growing view that a resolution can be found to the U.S. fiscal crisis, lifted the MSCI world equity index 0.35 percent to 326.1 points, putting it on track for its best week since mid-September.
Europe's FTSE Eurofirst 300 index rose 0.4 percent to a two-week high of 1,102.25 points, with London's FTSE 100 , Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX between 0.3 and 0.8 percent higher.

However, trading was subdued, with U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

CHINA BOOST

Confidence in the global economic outlook got its biggest boost from the HSBC flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for China, which pointed to expansion in activity after seven consecutive quarters of slowdown.
"There have been a lot of concerns regarding the outlook for global growth. In this context, any improvement in Chinese data is welcome, given that investors are still risk averse," said Robert Parkes, equity strategist at HSBC Securities.
The Chinese data followed a report on Wednesday showing U.S. manufacturing grew in November at its quickest pace in five months, indicating strong economic growth in the fourth quarter.

PMI data on the manufacturing and services sectors in Europe's two biggest economies of Germany and France added to the better tone, revealing that conditions had not worsened in November, though both economies are still contracting.
However, the PMI numbers for the wider euro zone remain extremely weak, pointing to the recession-hit region shrinking by about 0.5 percent in the current quarter - its sharpest contraction since the first quarter of 2009.
"The weak PMI outturn for November is a major disappointment in light of the increases in the German and French PMI surveys, and suggest the recession on the euro zone's periphery is gathering further pace," said ING economist Martin van Vliet.

BOND DEMAND

In the fixed-income markets the improving tone enabled Spain to sell 3.88 billion euros ($4.97 billion) of new government bonds on Thursday, even though it has already raised enough funds for this year's needs.
The average yield on the three-year bonds in the auction was 3.617 percent, compared with 3.66 percent at a sale earlier in November and a 2012 average of 3.79 percent.
Ten-year Spanish yields were 7 basis points lower on the day at 5.66 percent, having traded above 6 percent at the start of the week.

"It's a clear reflection that sentiment in Spain has improved markedly," RIA Capital Markets bond strategist Nick Stamenkovic said. "They are already funded for 2012, and the market is betting that Spain will ask for a bailout early next year when they face a (wall of issuance)."
Expectations that Greece will soon get more cash set Greek yields on course for their 10th consecutive daily fall. The February 2023 bond yield dropped to 16.16 percent, its lowest since it was issued as part of a debt restructuring in March.

COMMODITIES STEADY

Commodity prices gained some support from the improving outlook for world demand from all the PMI data, but the prospect of only modest global growth in 2013 kept the gains in check.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.7 percent to $7,744.75 a tonne, and spot gold inched up to $1,729.56 an ounce.
Oil prices were more mixed as the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza's Hamas rulers on Thursday eased concerns over the impact the unrest may have on supply from the region offsetting support from the prospect of greater Chinese oil demand.
Brent slipped 30 cents to $110.56 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up 3 cents at $87.41.



Source : Reuters

Catalonia: Much to Do about Nothing and Everything

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-MZ2HAl49nD.../catalonia.jpg

Catalonia, one of Spain's most important economic regions hold elections on Sunday, November 25. Artur Mas, the premier, called a snap election when the Rajoy government refused to reset the internal transfers that result in Catalonia paying Madrid more than it receives in benefits. These transfers are one of the factors that lie behind Catalonia's own deficit and debt issues.

Mas has tried casting the election as a referendum on independence. A referendum itself has been rejected by Madrid as a violation of the 1976 constitution.

At one level of analysis, this is a wider problem. Henry Kissinger has argued that there is a crisis of the Treaty of Westphalia that establishes the principle of national sovereignty. We, ourselves, have suggested that the debt crisis is dissolving the glue that holds society together as the cash nexus of creditor/debtor supplants other relationships. Francis Fukuyama, and others, have written extensively about the importance of social trust and the implications of it weakening.

We note that Mas seems particularly inspired by the referendum Scotland will hold on its independence, even though Catalonia has never been independent. Italy's Venice is also making noises about independence. Separately, but similarly, Bavaria, Germany's economic powerhouse of a state, which was helped previously by substantial transfers, now argues that it is tired of subsidizing other German states and wants to modify the current system.

The latest polls warn that Mas and the secessionist movement are likely to be disappointed. Mas' party, the CIU has begun slipping in the polls. His gamble of snap elections may increase the CIU's number of seats marginally at best and still leave it short of a majority. The CIU currently has 62 seats, six short of a majority. The polls suggest it may pick up 2 seats, at most.

What has happened? Outside of some of the elite in Catalonia, few would benefit from Catalonia's independence. It could cause harm to the extent that it would be an precedent for others in Spain, like the Basque Country, and others in Europe. There has been a uncoordinated but effective push-back.

Some businesses in Catalonia threaten to strike against independence by moving their headquarters out of the region. EC President Barroso has indicated that an independent Catalonia not automatically be a member of the EU. It would have to apply like all new states.

There have been articles in the local press alleging that some of the CIU officials have Swiss bank accounts, funding with ill-gotten gains. Prime Minister Rajoy first took a direct confrontational approach, emphasizing he illegal and unconstitutional nature of a referendum. He shifted tactics and now is emphasizing more practical issues like the costs of exit.

Perhaps more telling of the strength of the separatist movement is not how well the CIU does, which after all is the largest party in Catalonia and enjoys the benefits of incumbency, but how well the more radical nationalist party, ERC does. The election may also be a referendum on Rajoy's government. A third place showing, ahead of the Socialists, may be the best that the People's Party can expect.

If the CIU wins an outright majority, it will likely spook investors and weigh on Spanish shares and bonds. Barring that, however, investors will likely take the election in stride. The focus remains on if and when Spain asks for more formal assistance.

Many observers have emphasized the conditions that will be demanded by the IMF and EU. We have argued this is a red herring and the key issue how much the ECB (and ESM) will be committed to driving down Spanish interest rates.

That issue is a bit of a luxury in light of the decline in yields spurred by the simply announcement of the Outright Market Transactions (OMT). We are concerned that the economy is likely to be squeezed further in the new year as the suspension of Christmas bonuses and the start of new taxes take a toll. We also recognize that the country's faces record refunding needs, without the benefit of more long-term repos, that helped in 2012.

Germany, among others, has argued that assistance should be provided only in cases of emergencies. There is no emergency now. Spain is not locked out of the capital markets. In fact, its bond sales on November 22 raised more funds that were initially targeted. Still claims that it is pre-funding next year need to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. The money raised in bond auctions and private placements this year are more than planned, but so is the budget deficit and the governor of the central bank warned of the risk that next year's deficit target is also surpassed and this is still six weeks before the year even begins.

EUR in H4 Chart...

Found Piercing Line Pattern & Dark Cloud Cover Candle signal :nerd:

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Friday - November 23, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

Battle lines sharpen in fight over seven-year EU budget

By Jan Strupczewski and Peter Griffiths
BRUSSELS | Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:20pm EST



(Reuters) - European Union negotiators are close to securing British and German backing for a deal on nearly a trillion euros of spending over the next seven years, but concessions will be needed to win support from France, Poland and some southern European states.

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy, who is chairing the summit of EU leaders, has to win over London and northern European states furious at a proposed hike in EU spending over 2014-2020 by making deep cuts to the plans.
But in doing so he may have fostered an alliance between France, angry at proposals to cut the farm subsidies it gets from the budget, and countris in east Europe, who receive budget funds to help develop their economies. Spain and Italy could also align with the French position in negotiations.

French President Francois Hollande said on arrival he would stand up for the Common Agricultural Policy, a long-standing farming subsidy program that gobbles up more than 40 percent of the EU budget and of which France is the biggest beneficiary.
The negotiations, which could go on for two or three days, promise to be hard fought and potentially acrimonious, particularly if France and Britain end up reigniting old animosity over spending.
Failure to strike a deal would add to the impression that EU leaders are unable to take decisive action when needed, after endless rounds of wrangling to resolve the euro zone's long-running debt crisis over the past three years. It would further damage the EU's image with its 500 million citizens.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said east European countries had teamed up with France and other net budget contributors keen to protect farm funds, including Italy and Spain, to force Van Rompuy to reverse some of his proposed cuts.
"The support of big, net contributing countries is key. Poland's position is difficult because we are net takers not net contributors, and the arguments of those who give money are usually stronger," he told reporters at the summit.

But Britain and Germany, along with Sweden and the Netherlands, are insisting on deeper budget reductions.
"The bottom line here is that we think we can find significant savings - tens of billions - compared to what is on the table," a British official told reporters. Sources said German Chancellor Angela Merkel was pushing for further cuts of about 30 billion euros.

EU officials said Van Rompuy may try to reconcile both views by reversing some of his cuts to farm and regional development funds, while taking an axe to spending on areas like EU staff salaries and money for cross-border transport and energy links.
Leaders were only expected to discuss the new compromise package over an austere dinner of cold cuts that was pushed back until midnight as bilateral consultations ran over schedule.
Merkel, whose country is the EU's biggest net contributor, said it might not be possible to reach a deal this week and another round of negotiations may be needed early next year.

TOXIC DEBATE

The depth of Europe's debt crisis has made the perennial arguments over farm subsidies and rebates all the more bitter, with negotiators now contemplating the first ever real terms decline in future EU spending.
Gone are any hopes poorer EU states may have had of an increase in funds to cement the bloc's eastward expansion over the last decade. Calls to refocus limited EU resources on new growth-oriented areas have been largely ignored as countries scramble to defend traditional spending areas.

The bulk of EU budget spending - around two-thirds of the annual 130-billion-euro outlay - goes on agriculture and funds to help poorer economies catch up with the rest.
The current budget framework was agreed in 2005 in the midst of a credit-fuelled economic boom, and set a maximum limit of 1.034 trillion euros on EU financial commitments for the period 2007-2013 - equivalent to about 1 percent of EU output.

The Commission initially demanded a roughly 5 percent increase in spending for 2014-2020, equal to 1.091 trillion euros.
But this has already been reduced to 1.01 trillion euros under Van Rompuy's compromise, and is expected to dip below the trillion euro mark in the final reckoning.

One issue negotiators fear could derail the talks is toxic debate surrounding Britain's budget rebate, worth 3.5 billion euros last year. Margaret Thatcher won the annual refund in 1984 to reflect the lower share of farm subsidies received by Britain compared with France, Italy and others.

EU officials accept that Cameron cannot win the support of Britain's euro-sceptic parliament for any deal that scraps the rebate, and even a proposal to reduce its value may have to be abandoned to win Britain's backing at the summit, at the risk of further alienating other countries.
Cameron has threatened to veto a deal unless it is good for British taxpayers. But another veto, less than a year after he blocked a treaty change to allow stricter fiscal discipline in the euro zone, would further isolate Britain in Europe and could increase pressure for it to leave the EU.

"Many countries are asking themselves what the hell is happening with Britain? Is it on its way out? In which case, why should we make major concessions?" said one EU official at the summit, speaking on condition of anonymity.

(Additional reporting by John O'Donnell, Justyna Pawlak, Robin Emmott, Robert-Jan Bartunek, Catherine Bremer and Andreas Rinke; Writing by Charlie Dunmore; Editing by Paul Taylor and Luke Baker)



Source : Reuters

Cyprus close to a bailout deal with EU/IMF

NICOSIA | Thu Nov 22, 2012 4:16pm EST



(Reuters) - Cyprus is close to agreeing a bailout package with the European Union and IMF, President Demetris Christofias said on Thursday after the latest round of talks with the international lenders.

Two EU sources said the agreement was nearly done but would be completed only on Friday, when inspectors from the European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund - together known as the troika - are likely to give their approval.
The Commission, asked about reports that a deal had been agreed, said it would only issue a statement on Cyprus on Friday.

"We will communicate on the outcome of the mission to Cyprus tomorrow," Commission spokesman for economic and monetary affairs Simon O'Connor said.
Christofias, in Brussels for the EU leaders' summit, told reporters when asked about a deal with the troika: "We still work very hard."

The Mediterranean island sought financial aid - which could be up to 17.5 billion euros ($22.6 billion), equal to its entire gross domestic product - from the European Union and IMF in June, after its banks were battered by their exposure to the Greek crisis.
"After tough negotiations with the troika ... we are very close to signing a memorandum," Christofias said in a statement. "Very few issues remain and it's possible that the gaps in these issues will be bridged very soon."

The troika team left Cyprus on Thursday. It said in a draft statement seen by Reuters that it had made "good progress" and discussions aimed at "a potential programme" would continue from their respective headquarters.
Cyprus and the troika have been at odds over a host of issues, including privatizations and pension cuts, as well as the amount needed to recapitalize the banks.
Cypriot government sources said the two sides had struck a preliminary agreement over a 17.5 billion euro bailout, although EU sources could not confirm the figures.

Two EU officials told Reuters the Cypriots had presented a final, detailed proposal including figures, and that the troika would examine it on Friday.
"We are very close, but there's no deal yet," one official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We will have more discussions on Friday and if all goes well, we will be able to finalize an agreement then."
A troika source told Reuters in Nicosia that a debt analysis and financing needs still needed to be addressed.

An analysis on the state of Cypriot banks is expected by December 3, when euro zone finance ministers meet again in Brussels and aim to decide on a programme for the government in Nicosia.
The troika was initially due to leave Cyprus last weekend but stayed on to continue the talks. The team is expected to return at a later date, a finance ministry spokesman said.
"If the president says we're close, we're close," Finance Minister Vassos Shiarly, who has been leading the negotiations, told parliament on hopes for a deal.

(Reporting by Luke Baker, Jan Strupczewski and Barbara Lewis in Brussels, Constantinos Tsindas in Nicosia and Annika Breidthardt in Berlin; Writing by Karolina Tagaris and Annika Breidthardt; Editing by Stephen Nisbet, David Stamp and Rex Merrifield)



Source : Reuters

H4 Chart - Updates

Merkel doubts budget deal possible this week, more talks needed

BRUSSELS |Thu Nov 22, 2012 6:55pm EST



http://topnews.in/files/Angela-Merkel_18.jpg

Nov 23 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she doubted that an agreement on the European Union's seven-year budget could be reached this week and that a further round of negotiations would most likely be required at a later date.

"I believe that the positions are quite far apart, in certain respects," Merkel told journalists after the conclusion of the first day of summit that will resume at midday on Friday and could run into the weekend. Germany is the biggest net contributor to EU coffers.

"I believe that we will move forward a little tomorrow but I have my doubts that we will achieve a result," said Merkel. "There is a high likelihood of a second stage."

Merkel said ahead of the summit that if it wasn't possible to strike a deal on the nearly 1 trillion euro spending framework for 2014-2020, then the next best opportunity would probably be in early 2013.

(Reporting By John O'Donnell, editing by Luke Baker)



Source : Reuters

Tsar, I appreciate the effort, but this is a discussion forum, not a news feed. Your personal comments about how you believe each article is relevant to GBP/USD and EUR/USD with just a link to the articles would be far more useful than overwhelming this thread with all this copying and pasting.

Hi KADC,

Because No One Members make Post for discussion ( for Long time ago )

These Good Advice. I will do it the Next Post...
Thank's so much for your Attention to me


Best Regards,
Tsar

EURO in H4 Chart...

Price 1.2911 as Critical Point :nerd:

If Broken will UPward to 1.2983 as Weak Supply area (Magenta's Price)
And Break will DOWN to H4 Support / Daily Support

EU in H4 Chart - Big Screen

Hey mate well I dont know for the rest but Yes I personally appreciate this threat of yours
Keep em coming brotha

Thank's for your Comment

Take a Look in my First Post Post 1
You will found Treasure about FX in there... :nerd:

Euro Rises despite Official Failures, Yen Consolidate

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 23, 2012
Marc Chandler

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/--kHLhurzRG...0/currency.BMP

One would not know it by looking at the euro sitting at its best level in three weeks that European officials have failed to reach not one, but two agreements this week--to secure Greek funding and to agree on a new 7-year budget for the EU.

Of course some observers are playing up the stronger than expected German IFO and the better French business confidence, but to do so, one needs to forget that yesterday's flash PMIs remained sufficiently weak to signal to the Markit economists that the German economy is contracting this quarter by 0.3%, completely wiping out the Q3 gain of 0.2, while the French economy may contract 0.7%.

To be sure, both a Greek deal and a EU budget will eventually be worked out, with tortured results. Consider that the talk of a bond-buy back to reduce debt (in private sector hands) has sparked a rally in Greek government bond to the highs since the restructuring. And even the other elements, including a transfer of ECB profits on Greek bonds (distributed through national central banks) and lowering interest rates on existing official lending, the debt is still projected to be higher than 120% in 2020.

The IMF reportedly is compromising and will agree that 124% debt/GDP is sustainable. As we have noted before, the IMF's ability to forecast Greece's GDP means that these very precise numbers are anything but; that these numbers are largely arbitrary. These is a macabre dance taking place under which officials must make it appear that credible that they will be paid back. In fact, this is why Germany's Schaeuble argued official debt forgiveness must be ruled out because that would rip that veneer off.

Although talks are continuing, reports suggest that the EU is highly unlikely to reach a budget deal today. A third of the EU's budget is earmarked for agricultural subsidies that the recipients, led by France (~9.5 bln euros in 2014) are loath to give up. About half the budget is for infrastructure spending and here too the biggest recipients do not want the largess cut. The UK's negotiating position seems to be advocate cuts in everything but its rebate and that it wants increased. Denmark likes the UK rebate so much it wants one just like it. You get the picture.

The dollar reached a high near JPY82.85 yesterday and is consolidating today. There is market talk of strong (~$1-$2 bln in dollar offers ahead of the JPY83 barrier). It has, however, held above JPY82, now for the second consecutive session. In the four days this week before today, the yen has lost about 1.4% against the dollar and 2.5% against the euro and almost 2% against the Australian dollar.

The key driver of the yen's decline is that the LDP, under Abe's leadership, is expected to head up the next government. He has been staking out aggressive position in terms of monetary policy and ensuring the BOJ will do the government's bidding. However, in an interview today he is playing the use of fiscal policy levers. He has suggested a JPY200 trillion public works program, which may be financed by new debt. He is also suggesting waiving the implementation of the retail sales tax (2014), for which there is an opt-out clause relating to the strength of the economy.

On the other hand, Abe has indicated he is likely to be less interventionist that the DPJ. Recall that Oct 31, 2011, the MOF authorized massive BOJ intervention, estimated at nearly $100 bln. Of course, there may be less need for intervention given the Abe's other policies.

Taken together, it does suggest Abe is willing to face the wrath of the rating agencies. That said, 10-year JGB yields are up a single basis point this week to 0.73%. They are among the best performing bonds this week, outside of Italy and Spain. The Nikkei too is among the best performers this week with a 6% gain. A local paper reports of strong call demand the Japanese stock market coming from macro hedge funds and retail accounts.

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Friday - November 23, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime