SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
Martingale, Anti-martingale, and Compounding 40 replies
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Martingale vs. Non Martingale (Simplified RoR vs Profit) 1 reply
DislikedOut of the 15 total trades i won 13 of those.
So why is it so hard for people to win one(1) trade out of twelve(12)?Ignored
DislikedLooks like you have a very profitable system — excellent! — puts you in the elite group of folk who've figured out how to trade profitably.
So if you're already significantly profitable, why take on the completely unnecessary risk of martingale?
As the saying goes, if it ain't broke, why try to fix it?
Nobody's saying that it's hard to win 1 trade out of 12. Or that it's likely you'd ever lose 12 in a row. But the problem is that, with martingale, it only has to happen once in your trading lifetime, and you've...Ignored
DislikedAs the title of this thread states "Martingale..How to make it WORK for YOU!" I started it to show to people that you can use martingale in trading and use it to make a profit...since i have always seen people say how it can not work .
There is always risk in trading...and martingale does not make you take on completely unnecessary risks....
Everyone is saying it is hard to win 1 trade out of 12.....or a "black swan"...blah blah blah etc etc.....
Out of every system or whatever you read about martingale....you never hear about using...Ignored
DislikedThe best way is to think with an open mind and consider what others say. Let logic decide who is right.
Not you as a person but the method you proposed is wrong on many if not on all counts. Accept this if you don't want to lose money. Accept that your system allows only 12 trades before going bankrupt and you won't have no money for 13th trade. How much do you think the 13th trade would require. Do some math dude.Ignored
DislikedI do not lose money ...........
Its almost IMPOSSIBLE to go bankrupt .....as stated a number a times before...MONEY MANAGEMENT.....even after the 12th trade....you HAVE a shit load of funds still available.
Please at least take the time to read a thread before you comment.....
All these posts just prove a point...most if not everyone on these sites have no clue or understanding of PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT!
So please read the whole thread and run the numbers....also remember the numbers and % were just to give an example of what i am talking...Ignored
DislikedNo amount of money management is going to make martingale viable as a long term strategy. Playing like you're doing is just like bankrupting a bunch of small accounts except you can "buy in" again with your reserve funds. If martingale can't work long term for these small accounts, why is it going to work when your larger strategy is just composed of many smaller segmentations?Ignored
DislikedProve your point .....why can it not work as a viable long term strategy?
I think everyone that is posting should do as i said...RUN THE NUMBERS........
Using martingale like this is no different then trying to scalp the markets to make a profit...
But with scalping...you have to have a high hit rate...with the use of martingale....you can have a very low hit rate....Ignored
DislikedI do not lose money ...........
Its almost IMPOSSIBLE to go bankrupt .....as stated a number a times before...MONEY MANAGEMENT.....even after the 12th trade....you HAVE a shit load of funds still available.
Please at least take the time to read a thread before you comment.....
All these posts just prove a point...most if not everyone on these sites have no clue or understanding of PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT!
So please read the whole thread and run the numbers....also remember the numbers and % were just to give an example of what i am talking...Ignored
DislikedLet's put the parts of the puzzle together.
1) Martingale as a raw system does not work long term. You will lose all of your money in an account you do martingale with eventually.
2) Your system uses martingale in segmented bits. Think of them as small accounts within your larger account.
3) While you may gain short term profits due to the odds of reaching the 4 losses in a row is low, it won't take long for you to blow it. Let's look at the numbers as evidence. You say you have max drawdown of 16%. Your target gain is 1%. Nothing is said about...Ignored
Disliked1) prove it...
2) its uses martingale...SMARTY...not in segmented bits....
3) I have stated you are going for a 1:1 risk to reward....There is not a 64.39% chance of you having a loss...Hanover provided a calculator also...even with a 50% hit rate it is almost impossible to lose 12 out of 12 trades....Ignored
DislikedDon't take it personally, .........please. Few people here are trying to help everyone, exactly like you are trying to do. But we can always ignore certain points while focusing on some other.
The basic issue with martingale is the assumption that one can produce at least one winner in a few trades using their knowledge and skill. This looks pretty fascinating, but unfortunately not true, even for the best traders in the world. You don't have to believe me, just find few and put this question before them.
You may like to add a pole to this...Ignored
DislikedThen my calculations were accurate with a 1:1 (or 50%), and I have in fact proven negative expectancy in your system. The 64.39% is calculated as risk that you wipe out your gains before acquiring the necessary profit to break even in the event of the inevitable loss of 16% of your account, but I don't think you understand how this works. Honestly, I don't care if you go and blow all your money, I'm just afraid that some less than mathematically inclined people here may think you have something valid when quite frankly your system is built on an...Ignored
DislikedDon't take it personally, .........please. Few people here are trying to help everyone, exactly like you are trying to do. But we can always ignore certain points while focusing on some other.
The basic issue with martingale is the assumption that one can produce at least one winner in a few trades using their knowledge and skill. This looks pretty fascinating, but unfortunately not true, even for the best traders in the world. You don't have to believe me, just find few and put this question before them.
You may like to add a pole to this...Ignored
DislikedDon't take it personally, .........please. Few people here are trying to help everyone, exactly like you are trying to do. But we can always ignore certain points while focusing on some other.
The basic issue with martingale is the assumption that one can produce at least one winner in a few trades using their knowledge and skill. This looks pretty fascinating, but unfortunately not true, even for the best traders in the world. You don't have to believe me, just find few and put this question before them.
You may like to add a pole to this...Ignored
DislikedDo not give a link to some BS coin flip thing....SHOW YOUR MATH...Ignored
DislikedIt's not a "BS coin flip thing", it's binomial distribution. My apologies if you're not educated in statistics, but your ignorance doesn't make it invalid. What we are doing is calculating the cumulative probability that the 6.25% chance occurance will happen at least once in your 16 attempts. Here I will show you the math as you insist. We will find the probability of you reaching 16 events to make up for 16% max loss without a total loss of your risk. Since we know the probability of failure after 4 doubling attempts is a mere 6.25%, we also...Ignored
DislikedGod i love people who wish to be smart....
I am not looking to hit 12 of 12 trades(where did you get 16)....I just need to hit 1 of 12.....Ignored