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  • #15,901
  • Nov 21, 2012 3:53am Nov 21, 2012 3:53am
Quoting infinitus
that was on Monday......


now today - this rapid move down has sorted some counts out


Break below 2710-15 might result in forced downside. But DS3 at 2714 may call for a retracement first
That would have been good target for 2765 entry and a possible counter scalp. As 2785 has been broken 2810 is new resistance so I guess selling close to 2810 is ok due to good r:r and tight stops.

Still we need to see next few hours.
  • #15,902
  • Nov 21, 2012 4:07am Nov 21, 2012 4:07am
Quoting T@rantula
Targets should have been 2740 and 2715 with 2695 later in the day.
I cashed in too late. Well actually my stop got hit at 2795 to the pip. 2735 must break for more down. But it may be worth looking for scalps longs lower down I am expecting one more high anywhere up to 2930. I don't have charts so no idea where yet
  • #15,903
  • Nov 21, 2012 4:26am Nov 21, 2012 4:26am
Quoting T@rantula
Targets should have been 2740 and 2715 with 2695 later in the day.
Looks like they jump the gun or someone is front running those sovereign Bid Block @1.2730/40..
"EUR/USD: Bids 1.2730/40(real money, sovereigns, US Banks),
  • #15,904
  • Nov 21, 2012 4:32am Nov 21, 2012 4:32am
Quoting cdndollar
Looks like they jump the gun or someone is front running those sovereign Bid Block @1.2730/40..
"EUR/USD: Bids 1.2730/40(real money, sovereigns, US Banks),
Yes , you see, technical analysis said it clearly but the problem is also yen, because of yen all other currencies are impaired.

We had a railway and sort of a mat hold yesterday, all bullish and it went to where it was targeted...well almost ( 2835-40 ). Asia gave us almost 100 (!) pip drop and that was supposed to be a range play with bearish continuation ( all below 2750-40 is considered bearish till 2715-2695) so 2765 entry, cash out some close to 2740 or trail it lower.

But they reversed it tripping 2785. As you can see my stop was 2785 as I knew if it is hit it will stop-grab it higher. So the moment we hit 2785 we went to 2795. It was not impulse buying it was stop grabbing.
  • #15,905
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:19am Nov 21, 2012 5:19am
Quoting T@rantula
Yes , you see, technical analysis said it clearly but the problem is also yen, because of yen all other currencies are impaired.

We had a railway and sort of a mat hold yesterday, all bullish and it went to where it was targeted...well almost ( 2835-40 ). Asia gave us almost 100 (!) pip drop and that was supposed to be a range play with bearish continuation ( all below 2750-40 is considered bearish till 2715-2695) so 2765 entry, cash out some close to 2740 or trail it lower.

But they reversed it tripping 2785. As you can see my stop was 2785...
It's a tough situation for intra-day entries & target.. however, for positional players, precise entries are not as important as the directional Bias.. providing one get the Bias right with their analytics..
  • #15,906
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:41am Nov 21, 2012 5:41am
Quoting cdndollar
It's a tough situation for intra-day entries & target.. however, for positional players, precise entries are not as important as the directional Bias.. providing one get the Bias right with their analytics..
I think that positional traders are in very hard situation now. It because of the psychology...Just imagine a trader who longed close to 2700 and saw the price at 2830, just to suddenly drop 100 pips and erase all the profit which was accumulated for past 2 weeks (!).

That comes to psychology...most of them would close the trade. Scalping and swing scalping is a lot easier. Even that intraday swing is easier as stops are really tight.

But the real problem is that WIDE WIDE range that can screw up MID TERM and LONG TERM positional traders. Thats why I prefer intraday swings and swing scalps, and have an occasional losing trade..its not much.

EUR and GBP are impacted by fundies and yen. That will settle down.

As for today.. Im watching 2815-20 for a scalp short. Break above 2835 we go bullish and above 2850 ill be aiming for 2935 on pullbacks.
  • #15,907
  • Nov 21, 2012 6:23am Nov 21, 2012 6:23am
Quoting T@rantula

As for today.. Im watching 2815-20 for a scalp short. Break above 2835 we go bullish and above 2850 ill be aiming for 2935 on pullbacks.
2814 went down to 2799. 2795 is support.
  • #15,908
  • Nov 21, 2012 6:25am Nov 21, 2012 6:25am
Quoting T@rantula
I think that positional traders are in very hard situation now. It because of the psychology...Just imagine a trader who longed close to 2700 and saw the price at 2830, just to suddenly drop 100 pips and erase all the profit which was accumulated for past 2 weeks (!).

That comes to psychology...most of them would close the trade. Scalping and swing scalping is a lot easier. Even that intraday swing is easier as stops are really tight.

But the real problem is that WIDE WIDE range that can screw up MID TERM and LONG TERM positional traders....
yes.. psychology is a very important element at play here for all traders across the board.. the market play trick with our mind all the time.. just like right now with me staring at the screen, anticipating resists for this EURJPY bull.. TP & only see it shoot up another 1/2 figure.. I do like intraday trading, but not doing as much as before.. for position/swing trades I usually take some off @S/R but also let a few freebies run after with loose stops.. one must be willing to give back some pips to the market in-order to be rewarded with that occasional multi-figure payday..

TP limit waiting @1.28128 for the intraday EU long..
  • #15,909
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:39am Nov 21, 2012 7:39am
From this viewpoint only good r:r could be selling around 2815-20 with 15+ (1.2835) point stop and targets around 2770.
  • #15,910
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:52am Nov 21, 2012 7:52am
Quoting T@rantula
From this viewpoint only good r:r could be selling around 2815-20 with 15+ (1.2835) point stop and targets around 2770.
This is how i do it.

2715 first rejection was to 2709 . 2715 has been hit now. Momentum is too strong, its better to close it at BE then take a hit. Thats when we wait for next level. That is close to 2830 as 35 is stop for best r:r
  • #15,911
  • Edited 8:11am Nov 21, 2012 8:01am | Edited 8:11am
Quoting T@rantula
This is how i do it.

2715 first rejection was to 2709 . 2715 has been hit now. Momentum is too strong, its better to close it at BE then take a hit. Thats when we wait for next level. That is close to 2830 as 35 is stop for best r:r
Looks like a break over 30 is just a matter of time now with Cable coming to life while EURGBP move with side to up PA here..
and you see how the market play trick with our conventional "Sell High/Buy Low" psyche here..
  • #15,912
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:14am Nov 21, 2012 8:14am
Quoting T@rantula
This is how i do it.

2715 first rejection was to 2709 . 2715 has been hit now. Momentum is too strong, its better to close it at BE then take a hit. Thats when we wait for next level. That is close to 2830 as 35 is stop for best r:r
2830 rejection to 2820 +10 pips, scaling out now stops are on BE.
  • #15,913
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:26am Nov 21, 2012 8:26am
Quoting T@rantula
That would have been good target for 2765 entry and a possible counter scalp. As 2785 has been broken 2810 is new resistance so I guess selling close to 2810 is ok due to good r:r and tight stops.

Still we need to see next few hours.


Hi T. and the Gang,


hope you all had a nice and profitable day so far......


Well, that quick rebound from the lows this morning was not my preffered scenario LOL

I was not sure how to count this mornings wave down, but with a new high things get a bit clearer. At least I hope.

Judging from the wave structure, the wave up is kind of an extended ABC-flat, where we are now in impulsive wave C up. Wave C is now around 300% of wave A. Next fib target would be 2851.

Channel target is around 2837

Count of the C-wave suggests 1-2-(1-2-3-4-5)-1-2-3-now in 4 (of 5)

So I am expecting at least one more small wave up.



So right now best places to short seem to be:

2836 with SL above 2845 or better above 2851

2843 with SL above 2851

2851 with SL above 2888



Have to elaborate it a bit more.....
  • #15,914
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:29am Nov 21, 2012 8:29am
Quoting infinitus
Hi T. and the Gang,


hope you all had a nice and profitable day so far......


Well, that quick rebound from the lows this morning was not my preffered scenario LOL

I was not sure how to count this mornings wave down, but with a new high things get a bit clearer. At least I hope.

Judging from the wave structure, the wave up is kind of an extended ABC-flat, where we are now in impulsive wave C up. Wave C is now around 300% of wave A. Next fib target would be 2851.

Channel target is around 2837

Count of the C-wave suggests 1-2-(1-2-3-4-5)-1-2-3-now...
Hey Markus,

Today a BE was achieved as you say, bounce off the lows today was not preferable scenario for me either. What I see is bullish intraday with ranging intraweek. But, if we close above 2847 ( say it 45-look at your Murreys levels ) EU targets 2930+. Then we will make analyse for entries and exits.
  • #15,915
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:31am Nov 21, 2012 8:31am
Quoting jaylovin
I cashed in too late. Well actually my stop got hit at 2795 to the pip. 2735 must break for more down. But it may be worth looking for scalps longs lower down I am expecting one more high anywhere up to 2930. I don't have charts so no idea where yet
Out of my sight 2930 is only reachable, when the recent move up is the A wave (impulsive) of the E wave of the triangle. So an C wave impulse would be able to carry wave E that high.


But normally a triangle runs sideways and not up. So this would highly question the count. In this case we have to think about a complex wxyxz correction.......
  • #15,916
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:32am Nov 21, 2012 8:32am
Quoting T@rantula

As for today.. Im watching 2815-20 for a scalp short. Break above 2835 we go bullish and above 2850 ill be aiming for 2935 on pullbacks.


That sounds very good and reasonable to me.....
  • #15,917
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:47am Nov 21, 2012 8:47am
Quoting cdndollar
yes.. psychology is a very important element at play here for all traders across the board.. the market play trick with our mind all the time.. just like right now with me staring at the screen, anticipating resists for this EURJPY bull.. TP & only see it shoot up another 1/2 figure.. I do like intraday trading, but not doing as much as before.. for position/swing trades I usually take some off @S/R but also let a few freebies run after with loose stops.. one must be willing to give back some pips to the market in-order to be rewarded with that...


Hi CDN,


very interesting the discussion regarding scalps, swings, positions......


My experience over the last 4 years:


trading for 15-30 pip swings is the most reliable, the best way to trade, when you are aiming for consistency. Such moves are most of the time quiet good "predictable".

Higher targets makes , at least most of us, and here I have to include myself strongly, to victims of our perception and greed. In such a process there is so much hopium involved.......

Trading for 15-30 pips per swing is to a lesser extent psychology driven and rather a mechanical act.

Over and over, up to today, I keep earning on the 15-30 pips runners and losing often on some longer term trades.

Keep in mind: trading means: you are looking for earnings. Oftentimes when I traded a longer term position, the earnings per hour (so to say) were horribly small.



One of the most reasons small accounts fail, is, because traders try to get a good earnings per hour. With a small account you have to take huge risks to achieve that goal, but when account grows, one can reduce risk. A critical account equity is around 10.000 USD.

From a statistical point of view most accounts sub 2000 USD fail, sub 4000 USD is a hard work. Only above 8-10.000 USD most traders are achieving the goal to be constantly profitable without much of a drawdown.
  • #15,918
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:53am Nov 21, 2012 8:53am
Fib fan on 4h TF
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  • #15,919
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:54am Nov 21, 2012 8:54am
Thats true.

I scalp usually, but also trade D1 last 6 months.

When i set my TP about 50 pips, i usually have a D1 hit ratio about 80 % and all is fine.
Every time i get too greedy of to self confident and try 100 oder 150 pips, my hr sinks to 50 %

btw. 10k ?? i think 8 from 10 here in the FF have a account smaler that 1000 $
How to opt out annoying user signatures ??
  • #15,920
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:00am Nov 21, 2012 9:00am
Quoting infinitus
Hi T. and the Gang,


hope you all had a nice and profitable day so far......


Well, that quick rebound from the lows this morning was not my preffered scenario LOL

I was not sure how to count this mornings wave down, but with a new high things get a bit clearer. At least I hope.

Judging from the wave structure, the wave up is kind of an extended ABC-flat, where we are now in impulsive wave C up. Wave C is now around 300% of wave A. Next fib target would be 2851.

Channel target is around 2837

Count of the C-wave suggests 1-2-(1-2-3-4-5)-1-2-3-now...
Hello Markus..
I am not into EW.. but if we are in an impulsive wave C up now targeting above 2830 then why not take advantage of this bullish momentum and buy dips with 10/20 pips stops rather then wait to short?
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