Strada thanks for the charts, Any Critique you have time to give me would be much appreciated. I tell you mate I would have to be close looking at things I am just not getting over the line with this thing. Cheers Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Anthm, have responded below in BLUE. I should firstly say though that my responses are based on my own strategy for bago and may not necessarilly be fully in accordance with the original Bago rules. I use the indies as on page 1 but i do use a different tf and my own set of trading rules, so anyone else reading this please give due consideration.
"Waiting for recross to exit sometimes very costly"
"Would it be possible for you to take a look at a couple of things that have given me grief not only this week?
I would firstly like to say that I understand that I need to trade what I see and not what I think, I am getting that, I also understand that if this thing is to become consistently profitable I need to trade it inside the rules set. With regard to exit on a recross (inside the rules set) is costing me a lot."
A few things to consider here. The 5/12 recross is a big part of my strategy but it also has to be considered against a multiple of other factors and I will find it difficult to mention every example while writing this, but to generalise, we have to remember we're using 1 minute charts so we have to be tn thinking and deciding in split seconds sometimes; we are always looking to preserve capital, we want to protect gains already made.
The charts help us a great deal with this and we have to use that resource.
The charts often give us better or more immediate important information than our rules allow, so we have to decide whether to use what we see or stick rigidly with the rules.
Other factors come into play here, whether we're looking to enter a trade or consider a premature exit. Have a look around, are there any obvious obstacles, barriers etc. These aren't all negatives in trading they are very much positives. Recent price levels can help to reduce losses as well as enhance profits, so they cannot be ignored.
As I go through your individual Q's we will find some good examples.
"E.g. T1 Monday 7.06 Long signal, I entered at 7.08 @ 73.3 Recross is confirmed after close of 7.16 bar I wait for 1 pip worse on signal bar to exit at 7.19 @65.2 -8.1x3 Total -24.3 (seems I in the rules set but I took huge hit) You exit at 7.15 and take a far lesser hit.
This type of thing happens regularly I enter a trade I wait until recross for exit but by the time that happens I am down almost to my SL level of -10(ie-30)" This trade exit was generated by the 7.14 bar, partly because price had failed to make a new high and it had come through the little floor created between it and 7.07 bar. Also, in relative terms it was quite a strong bar as was the 7.15. So decision made to exit off the 7.14 close + small extension. I used to use 1,2,3 formations a long time ago and still mindful of them when I see them, we had one here, giving a little further support to the decision.
There is another point to make here and it will certainly sound pompous, it isn't meant to be. I've been watching 1 minute charts for several years and watching the prices alongside, the way prices move, the speed of it. You see things, they're not things that can easily be described or quantified, but they lead you into a biased opinion of where the market is going. On it's own not a tradeable strategy but alongside other factors it can be part of the decision making thought process.
Now in exiting this trade I know that strictly speaking the trade is still inside the original signal and if price reverses again and take the trade into profit then that is the risk I have to take, a smallish loss against either a bigger loss or a possible profit? Sometimes we're right, sometimes not.
"E.g. I don’t even have your chart in front of me or your exact trade details but I already know you would have managed better than -10 on this one. T2 Tuesday, Signal @ 7.33, Entry 7.35@ price 02 recross confirmed on close of 7.38 bar I wait for confirmation I take a full stop price 92@ 7.44, I down -10 you manage a loss of only??????" T2 on tuesday for me was definitely a continuation trade. After the 5/12 recross it also made some attempts to break RSI 50 which didn't proceed further. When price went back up and made recross to the long side, we weren't far away from the round number so I decided to use just 1 TP instead of 2 for the continuation. This is a case of looking at probabilities and risk. I knew when I entered the trade that if there was any rejection of the round number I'd be looking for the exits. I like trading against these barriers, but as we don't know how many attempts it takes before the barrier weakens enough we can't keep throwing good money at it so in this situation where we have the availability of a continuation trade we use it with a fairly cheap exit.
"It seems waiting for a recross plus confirmation is costing me. Do you have any suggestions?"
Consider other factors as well, especially in the early stages of a trade. use recent hi/lo's, double/triple top/bottoms. The worst that can happen is you might exit a perfectly good trade too early, but there may be other points on the chart which may let you re-enter. One thing to mention here though, don't let your eagerness to exit apparent losing trades early turn into a habit of looking for reasons not to trade, that can happen, I have the scars.
Your other post will be answered later, have to pop out for a while, bye for now, strada.
"E.g. If you have taken say full profit Tp1, 2 and Tp3 on the recross. Then there is a cross in line with original signal will you take TP1 and 3 again? Or will you take just 1 TP." If I've taken decent profit from the initial trade I may not use the continuation at all. If I do I would only put 1 TP in and I will probably snipe, take the first profit available on any weakness, I'd look at it as a small enhancement to profit. I would only do it if I can see a cheap exit, no more than 5 pips loss. Recent hi/lo's will do for this, double triple top/bottom even better.
It has to be said though that in this situation if you have a decent profit from the trade why risk any of it at all, sometimes it pays to resist the temptation, sit back and enjoy the profit you have banked.
"Would the answer to this question change if there was a slight cross and then recross of the RSI in line with original signal." Probably not. It is also about what the chart is telling you, is the move back into the direction of original trade looking like a continuation of the overall move, has there just been a pause in an overall one way move?
"Further to this how much of a cross and then recross of RSI would be needed for you to consider it a whole new trade?" It's not just the RSI cross that would determine this but the shape of the chart. If there has been a decent move in the opposite direction and probably a new trade in the opposite direction then it wouldn't be seen as 'continuation'.
"I see sometimes it may cross and re cross a couple of times. Yesterday at 7.27 and again at 7.31 was a classic example of this. Now yesterday I see you took only one TP due whole number but let’s say there was no whole number for the case yesterday, would you have taken it as full trade?" No. Because price hadn't moved that far in the opposite direction, so I was still seeing the new upward leg as a continuation of the original move we were in. As a basic rule of thumb, if there hasn't been a full signal and trade in the opposite direction then treat this as a continuation.
"The situation where you take Full TP1 and 2&3 @ BE, if continuation developed would you take 2 lots as continuation or one?"
"Or the situation where price runs to say 4 pips and reverses and you close all TPs at BE would you take continuation 2 lots? Or would you ever consider the full 3 lots." Yes, I would but with a great deal of caution, possibly a reduced stake size. Also this invariably means you'll be entering at a more distant price second time around and when this situation arises it's quite often because we've moved into congestion so that will have some influence on how many TP's.
"If it’s two TP, s I understand your treat one as TP1 (i.e. 7-10 pips) and the second as TP3 (i.e. let it run etc) is this correct?" Yes.
"What if it’s only one TP what exit strategy would you use here?" If subsequent to a decent profit on 3 TP's previously then I'll snipe with it but if the market is kind and shoots off then I'll use the 5/12 recross or any other barrier i see or some obvious weakness.
"Also the question of SL on continuation trades do you use a full 10 or 12 pips as per full trade?" No, that would likely wipe out any profit previously made. With continuation trades, I'll look for a cheap exit and once into it if I'm not sure or happy with it, I may just close it at best price possible and wait for the next signal. For me continuation trades are generally only trying to make extra pips in the event a move re-establishes itself, if they're not there I don't push it. Continuation trades are not always essential to take.
"Strada I know my English is terrible I promise its one of the legacies of being Australian. I hope you can kind of understand me." Hold on there, this is a global forum, probably hundreds of different language participants, so quality of English language spoken here is totally irrelevant, Everyone makes themselves understood as best they can. Nothing wrong with your English, it's probably better than many UK nationals!
Hope some of this ramble is helpful.
strada.
Good result Anthm, and yes one more trade would have been good, but on the other hand.......????
I got back into profit and also considered the next signal but decided against as didn't have that much profit and don't do losing days.
Strada I have lossed over 50 today. Lots of lessons today, lessons I thought I had learnt, Fortunately I have the weekend to go over my mistakes Very embarrassing to even post the charts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Today yet another very patchy day on EU although not untypical when around a round number, where it hugs that line closely before deciding on which direction.
Trading around the number when it's straddling like this involves a lot of ducking and diving, but minimising losses is paramount here even if it involves some wrong decisions. It's fair to say that it might be more sensible to step back altogether for a while.
The chart I think tells the story, different chart today partly because my MT$ stopped updating just before 7am, but also this is the chart I was trading from this morning and I wanted to say something about T 2.
T2 signalled and then gapped up on the next bar by just over a pip, so I'd immediately clicked the mouse but at the same time price immediately fell back again so I didn't unclick the mouse and withdrew it from the order box to see what was going on. Now here we have a signal which to all intents and purposes should be a live trade but price is now sitting below the signalled price so I took advantage of the low entry price and used the current lo's as my stop. As it happens it didn't get very far (+4) and exited at BE. This situation happens often and shouldn't always be seen as negating the trade, if I can see a cheap stop for exit I'll take advantage of the better entry price.
This was nip & tuck all the way today and by the news at 9 I was back in profit so finished, brain fried!!
Strada.
T2 signalled and then gapped up on the next bar by just over a pip, so I'd immediately clicked the mouse but at the same time price immediately fell back again so I didn't unclick the mouse and withdrew it from the order box to see what was going on. Now here we have a signal which to all intents and purposes should be a live trade but price is now sitting below the signalled price so I took advantage of the low entry price and used the current lo's as my stop. As it happens it didn't get very far (+4) and exited at BE. This situation happens often...
Ignored
Morning Strada I see what you mean about T2 nice work on your entry. I got confused about something yesterday (actually more than one thing obviously). Due to the choppy nature early in yesterday’s session and the fact I had had a couple of losses I decided to reduce down by one third. I see you did the same on T4, 5 and 6 T5 was a continuation and we have discussed that before but in the case of T4 would you have considered reducing lot size as you did but still dividing into 3 for TP1, 2 and 3 or was your intention just to have the TP1 and 2? or should it have been TP1 and 3? Cheers Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Strada just going over the charts from Friday again I notice for T1 you used a signal bar at 6.51, I was using signal bar of 6.42, at 6.42 my RSI was showing 49.5. Is this a disparity between yours and my chart feeds? Regards Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Strada I see what you mean about T2 nice work on your entry. I got confused about something yesterday (actually more than one thing obviously). Due to the choppy nature early in yesterday’s session and the fact I had had a couple of losses I decided to reduce down by one third. I see you did the same on T4, 5 and 6
[font=Calibri][size=3]T5 was a continuation and we have discussed that before but in the case of T4 would you have...
Ignored
HI Anthm, One of the advantages of spreadbetting is that you can do either in this situation. If you've gone for a reduced stake size perhaps with the initial plan to do TP1 & 3 you could switch to 3 TP's again on a reduced amount if you preferred. This would depend on how price moved, ie if you get a clear break through the previous hi/lo on a continuation, you may prefer 3 tp's. One other thing you can do when using 2 TP's, if you have already taken TP1 and then price looks right you can then split TP3, take 50% as a TP2 and let the remaining 50% run as a TP3.
HOpe that makes sense.
YOur other Q about Trade 1 on Friday, yes RSI was below at 6.42 but I missed the entry but got the later signal. I did consider entry when price was behind the original signal, but was really in 2 minds about the trade due to the 7am news. I probably should have left it altogether.
Strada.
Charts below
Up 40 on first trade gave it all back to finish almost 60 down
Trade 5 was just an absolute brain miss hap.
Thankfully there is always tomorrow.
anthm
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Actually thought my defense was reasonable early today but the whole day just did my head in,
Had a bad entry with my brokere going form .8 of a pip to 2 pip but actually no change in PA.
So yer maybe time for that new broker.
Um, yes down aroung 30.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Anthm, your T5, I was watching it and initially looking for a break of the immediate previous high. This didn't happen so then looked for a break of the 2nd green bar + 1 which would have been -5, fortunately, this didn't happen either.
This trade took me back into profit so was looking for an exit, considered exit a few bars earlier but price turned down again so grabbed a few more pips.
strada.
Strada
That my friend is absolute masterfull,
I do see your reasing on my T5
I do see Strada that there is a good reason for everything you do.
You are good. Amazing.
Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Anthm, your T5, I was watching it and initially looking for a break of the immediate previous high. This didn't happen so then looked for a break of the 2nd green bar + 1 which would have been -5, fortunately, this didn't happen either.
strada.
Ignored
Just to qualify my T5 yesterday, could you please confirm that if the 8.11 Bar went 1 pip above the 8.09 you probably would have exited or would you have let the 8.11 run and close at any point, then only if the 8.12 bar ran 1 pip higher than the 8.09 or the 8.11 (which one?) then an exit?
Further to this was this your thought process on yout T3 trade on the 23rd of November Post 3669
I am kepping a drawn record of all these small price formations that may lead to a more likely exit or entry
Regards Anthm
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
Morning Anthm, re your T5 yesterday (my T4): When I first entered I was looking at the Hi's created just before the signal as my exit level (+1). After the price created the Hi on the 8.12 bar and started dropping down again I was then looking at that high as possible exit. Given the previous activity I was always looking for the cheapest exit and that seemed a reasonable exit point.
And yes similar to the trade on 23rd you refer to, at least I think so, can't remember exact thought process for then but looks similar.
Today's charts below, bit of a grind to start with but then came right. Took slightly early exit on last trade, reasonable retrace and had enough.
Morning Strada Thanks for charts will analyse when I get to dubai
I down 25 pips
Long session, I know I have many problems but honestly I keep getting bad fills,
My Broker was 2 pips for 50 percent of the session and bouncing between .8 and 2
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
When you're in the land of HOPE, you're done, get out of there, WALK AWAY
