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Proof That Ultra Profitable Trading Is Indeed Possible

  • #301
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:07pm Nov 20, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting Supertrader9
I read somewhere that drawdowns should always be less than 10%....5% is better. I am going to just risk 1% at a time and focus on to achieve consistency and build a great track record.
i believe less than 10% drawdowns is unrealistic.unless you are a CTA or hedge fund. I think I am comfortable trading with a 10% chance of 45% drawdowns which means it will definitely happen soon,for a 80% chance of 300%+ gain.As long as you understangd fully the odds you will accept the outcomes.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #302
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:32pm Nov 20, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting pemully
i believe less than 10% drawdowns is unrealistic.unless you are a CTA or hedge fund. I think I am comfortable trading with a 10% chance of 45% drawdowns which means it will definitely happen soon,for a 80% chance of 300%+ gain.As long as you understangd fully the odds you will accept the outcomes.
How does your own trading statistics look like? Is it ok to share a picture?
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #303
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:36pm Nov 20, 2012 12:36pm
Quoting pemully
I was trying to figure how the account grew 1000% on less than 300 trades seeing that the expectancy of the system is around 0.3 which is rather average. I figured that the trader took on serious risk to get there. I expected 50%+ drawdowns.
If you read Van K Tharp's books, the calculations for "expectancy" involved not only the percentage of winning trades over losing trades, but also the ratio (or size) of winning trades over losing trades. The expectancy of the above two examples are very high, because even though the winning percentage is relatively low, the Sharpe Ratio is very high because average winners are very much greater than average losers. I think you meant the percentage winners when you say 0.3.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #304
  • Nov 20, 2012 2:45pm Nov 20, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting mmaker
If you read Van K Tharp's books, the calculations for "expectancy" involved not only the percentage of winning trades over losing trades, but also the ratio (or size) of winning trades over losing trades. The expectancy of the above two examples are very high, because even though the winning percentage is relatively low, the Sharpe Ratio is very high because average winners are very much greater than average losers. I think you meant the percentage winners when you say 0.3.
by expectancy I meant the first system returns 3 cents to 1 dollar risked. The second system is truly awesome,almost hard to believe.

my own system is surprisingly similar with around 45% winners 2:1 R/R .sorry can't post the stats as I'm on mobile phone.
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #305
  • Nov 20, 2012 3:08pm Nov 20, 2012 3:08pm
Quoting pemully
by expectancy I meant the first system returns 3 cents to 1 dollar risked. The second system is truly awesome,almost hard to believe.
my own system is surprisingly similar with around 45% winners 2:1 R/R .sorry can't post the stats as I'm on mobile phone.
Let me do the maths if I can recall from what I read from the book years ago. Suppose the average risk per trade is $200. This can be 1% or 5% of equity capital but that is not relevant. From the trading statistics, if average loser is $200 then we represent it as R (or 1 risk unit). Suppose the number of winners vs losers is 40%, and the size of average winners (e.g. $600) is 3 times the size of average losers (e.g. $200).

Expectancy = (0.4 x 3R) + (0.6 x -1R)
= 0.6R

Having a perceived low winning percentage like 40% doesn't mean you are not profitable. If the risk-to-reward (or Sharpe Ratio) is high, then it more than compensate for the occasional losers. The second statement in earlier posts focused on high risk-to-reward ratio (7.44) at the expense of winning percentage (34.12%). His expectancy is thus, (0.34 x 7.44R) + (0.66 x -1R) = 1.87R. That's just averaging as the account grew from $5000 to over $32K, and his R risk unit varies as the account size grows.

Anyway, I will not discuss these two accounts anymore as the method used to achieve these results no longer worked. They were the few lucky ones when the market conditions were favorable to the method at that time.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #306
  • Nov 21, 2012 3:27am Nov 21, 2012 3:27am
I have updated the first page. From now onwards every trade is with risk of 1% of the account.
  • #307
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:31am Nov 21, 2012 5:31am
Current trade Eurusd. Keep it simple and consistent.
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  • #308
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:35am Nov 21, 2012 5:35am
supertrader9,,
Hi bud hope your ok. Have you looked at oil. I havent seen the way you trade but i thinkm i know how your style might be so us oil might be for you, especially with the big moves it does.take care
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #309
  • Nov 21, 2012 5:44am Nov 21, 2012 5:44am
Quoting billytt
supertrader9,,
Hi bud hope your ok. Have you looked at oil. I havent seen the way you trade but i thinkm i know how your style might be so us oil might be for you, especially with the big moves it does.take care
No, i haven't. Thanks mate will look it up.
  • #310
  • Nov 21, 2012 7:58am Nov 21, 2012 7:58am
Again i lose focus...I need to be objective.
  • #311
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:18am Nov 21, 2012 8:18am
A good trader would never be panic....yes sometimes he does mistakes due to fatigue or something that life throws at him but he never loses control and trade recklessly. That is who i want to become.

I would have gotten 6% increase today if i didn't lose my focus. I was watching arrows and at the same time trading...i think i would need to be more careful.
  • #312
  • Nov 21, 2012 8:39am Nov 21, 2012 8:39am
Quoting Supertrader9
A good trader would never be panic....yes sometimes he does mistakes due to fatigue or something that life throws at him but he never loses control and trade recklessly. That is who i want to become.
I would have gotten 6% increase today if i didn't lose my focus. I was watching arrows and at the same time trading...i think i would need to be more careful.
What's more important is the results at the end of the week, or end of the month right? So what if you have some losers here and there between trades.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #313
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:19am Nov 21, 2012 9:19am
Quoting mmaker
What's more important is the results at the end of the week, or end of the month right? So what if you have some losers here and there between trades.
Yes, that is true but i will try to improve my focus. Sometimes i know that i should not be taking the trade but i still took it. That shows my lack of control over myself. I really need to focus on having control over myself. If i can do that my results will improve dramatically.
  • #314
  • Nov 21, 2012 9:50am Nov 21, 2012 9:50am
Quoting Supertrader9
Yes, that is true but i will try to improve my focus. Sometimes i know that i should not be taking the trade but i still took it. That shows my lack of control over myself. I really need to focus on having control over myself. If i can do that my results will improve dramatically.
But what did you do right previously? You easily grew your demo or live accounts 70-100% very quickly. You did something correctly, which is what I was going to learn from you. I didn't expect $2,500 live account would be that much different to make you panic at every 1% drawdown.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #315
  • Nov 21, 2012 10:43am Nov 21, 2012 10:43am
hello,

are you gonna explain the way you trade or just record your trades here ? thanks
  • #316
  • Nov 21, 2012 10:51am Nov 21, 2012 10:51am
Quoting mmaker
But what did you do right previously? You easily grew your demo or live accounts 70-100% very quickly. You did something correctly, which is what I was going to learn from you. I didn't expect $2,500 live account would be that much different to make you panic at every 1% drawdown.
I was never panic but i was reckless. I try to make up my losses by trading bigger. Right now if i can make a track record safe and consistent i can send it to big hedge funds and trade for them. Well they have billions so if i can get like 10% it would be something. So yeah i am going to trade safely and consistently. I will try my very best.

The system i used before is different than this one. Previously is geared to make lots of money quickly. I am changing it for low risk.
  • #317
  • Nov 22, 2012 1:16am Nov 22, 2012 1:16am
Up. Always trade with the immediate trend.
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  • #318
  • Nov 22, 2012 3:22am Nov 22, 2012 3:22am
Quoting Supertrader9
Up. Always trade with the immediate trend.
if i am not wrong, u are trading price action on min 15 on trading the trend like u mentioned, buy above minor r or sell below minor s on closest bar.

Your trading account is 2k, u have to ask yourself, are u trading a system or for a living, if ur doing for a living. My advice is that if ur doing for a living, continue to trade at the current sizing, but if u are dedicated and committed to trade a good system, then you probably need to go down to 0.01 lot on your account as your are trading only 2k.

Per trade if executed at 0.2 lot, 10 pips is $20, gain is 1%, but loss is also 1%. perhaps 20 pips = $40 , if u cut at 2% at $40, that's just a single trade, if u get into 2-3 wrong trades per day, u are easily burn at 6%+-, do try to keep lot size the same, to shows that its consistent.

For instance, i may trade at 100k, but my lot size is only 1.0 at 10$ per pip, this gives me 100pips to buffer in a 1% 1000, which also increases my probability, though gains can be lesser, but if they are accumulated properly, u can easily hit 100% per annum ++ through consistency. Then u imagine about 1 M account that u are trading, u seriously think 20 pips 1% is a good call on at a 1m account? though gains can be quick, but it tend to attack the trader's psychology and emotional more often as ur risking more money.
  • #319
  • Nov 22, 2012 6:00am Nov 22, 2012 6:00am
Quoting Supertrader9
The system i used before is different than this one. Previously is geared to make lots of money quickly. I am changing it for low risk.
Maybe you can trade two separate accounts with two different risk profiles? One aggressive and one conservative?

For example, this aggressive growth has high drawdowns,
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Supr...harmony/417748
While this conservative growth has low drawdowns,
http://www.myfxbook.com/members/Supr...private/426390

It's all relative even if traded by the same person.
No longer trading forex. Looking for full time job.
  • #320
  • Nov 22, 2012 7:44am Nov 22, 2012 7:44am
5percent: I have two system that i am trading right now. One is for 15m and another 5m. For 15m the sl is 15 and tp is 20. For 5m the sl is 10 and tp is 10. To my surprise i still made mistakes and am still improving the method. But as time passes by i will make less and less mistakes. I aim to achieve 80% accuracy. It can be done i just need to focus. 5percent may i know whether you have access to hedge funds/investment firm etc? What kind of return/drawdowns do they prefer and how long the track record should be? I am trading this account not to make money but as evidence that i can trade well.

mmaker: Currently i would like to stick to lower risk first. Now i believe even 1% per trade is high risk.
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