Silent Service Method

I'm glad the election is over.....we Americans can get along again.....unless of course you see something like this....

And then there is this. I might sign it... lol.

http://www.examiner.com/article/shou...in-citizenship

http://www.inquisitr.com/397425/peti...for-secession/

https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/pet...erica/dmQl1bXL

I'm not sure if it will be in my lifetime, but a split is most certainly coming.

Looks to me like the Aussie might be breaking down now. The first chart, the weekly one, shows that we are at the "mid line" of the consolidation range. (Some of you may remember my "box trading" videos a while back that went over this phenomenon of only reaching "half way" on the return and signalling a possible breakdown or break out.....depending on the direction.)

Also, the daily bar is looking ugly......as you can see on the second chart, and last Wednesday's shooting star certainly won't help the outlook either.

H4 breakout to the south. Daily breakout is not far below.

For myself, I went long NZD/JPY last night on the spike....nice return so far. Could the Yen finally be ready to weaken????

On thing I love about markets is that it's quite easy to find out who is right & who is wrong. I am clearly wrong (or early, which is the same thing). You were absolutely right to be short. The question is, when do you get long?

One thing I hear repeatedly (so you could argue this is conventional wisdom) is that people who are concerned about taxes going up (especially on cap gains & dividend income) are taking their gains now, so they can pay a *known* 15% rate rather than whatever Congress/president decide it's going to be. Not a bad idea if you have gains and are planning for your tax bill... That said, I would look at this as a shorter-term phenomenon and am eyeing spots to get long.

I'll still stick with my call for higher stock prices, understanding that so far... I'm dead wrong!

Don't think I'll be going long anytime soon.

The fundamentals are still the same - Companies/Corporations stock value is derived from earnings and with the wwestern world in recession I can't see how they can increase.

Normally QE would goose the market but since QE3 the Dow has dropped 1000 pts so even that's not working anymore.

Seasonality would suggest it's a good time to be long however, price is just not complying thus far.
At the end of the day you are right to 'stick to your guns' right, wrong or otherwise.

This will more than likely be compounded by whatever "quick fix" the US government does over the next few weeks. The markets were very bullish over the 24 hours as the very idea of better rhetoric coming out of DC has traders buying......

Next stop for gold 1875? There are some hurdles to overcome first.

This chart is a perfect case for buying physical gold. (Assuming you can.) If you aren't leveraged - there is no concern, and you simply hold onto it. Of course, we aren't that rich (otherwise we wouldn't be here...) and it is easier said than done. I have been hoarding silver myself.......

After reading a few things on the "new section" here on the site, I feel that I should probably post this thought yet again. It does make sense that I should at this point time, when you think about it. There are plenty of people who will have started this thread recently, and as such may not read everything in the beginning, or if they did may have forgot about it by now.

Without a doubt, the best piece of advice I can give you as far as trading is probably not to get caught up in the hype. One of the most destructive types of hype that I see out there is this incessant "dick measuring contest" that many traders are involved in. It's quite funny actually, as most traders spend so much time trying to prove each other wrong, that they can prove themselves right. Remember, at the end of the day nobody is going to care about your account more than you. This includes me, although of course I mean no ill will. It's just the way it is.

The underlying theme of many traders is to simply denigrate people as they don't particularly feel good about themselves. These people come to the markets day after day, and lose money. It gets very frustrating, I know - I have been there. The only difference between me and somebody else in this marketplace is that I stuck with it long enough to finally get at least a rudimentary grasp on the markets.

Meanwhile, there are plenty of people willing to argue about the markets like they know what the hell they're talking about. Keep in mind, anybody can claim to be anything on the Internet, and generally will. Quite often, you will see people talk about the markets going to do this or it's going to do that, because of X,Y and Z. by now, you should know that this is complete and utter bullshit. However, many of our new friends don't know any better and get sucked into this vortex of horse shit.

Far too many people make trading out to be something that it isn't. It's not exciting, it's not some type of pulse pounding struggle, it's just simply placing an order and letting the market either give you money or not. I've known quite a few intelligent people that couldn't trade worth a shit, but were great people outside of the arena. I can say the same thing about myself, there are plenty of things I can't do, but it doesn't make me less of a person. Anybody who has taken a mathematics course with me would certainly agree with this last statement.

Having said all this, I think that there is a definite problem with public forums. I think it lets far too many idiots into the realm of conversation. However, there simply no way to weed them out right away. Life is about trying to make the journey as pleasant as possible. If you think about it, that's exactly what we're trying to do when we trade. We are trying to make profits, but why do we need these profits? It's about being able to live life the way you want. Obviously, if you have 20 million in the bank account, it's much easier to do what you want than somebody who works a steady 9 to 5 job.

With that in mind, ensure that you only deal with people who are empowering to you, or at least don't irritate you. I understand that not everybody can be some Tony Robbins or other positive guru in your life, but if they are somebody who your taste the shit out of you, and especially when it comes to trading, they are worth even talking to. I have to admit though, everyone so I'll jump into the fray over there in the news section like a complete idiot. Luckily though, I tend to stick around much longer than the people who irritate me. This is why I know most of them are losing money, they disappear in a few short weeks.

Just some things to think about...

Chris

Cheers Chris, and great words. It is so true too. All this I am right, I am right, I am right!!! nonsense. It's ridiculous. Anyone who is anyone who trades knows that for those of us who have developed a system, have developed it in a way that it has positive expectancy over time . This could mean a stellar w:l ratio, and even more so a high r:r ratio. A combination of the two with high marks is GUARANTEED survival and future in this market.

I come in with about a 70% win rate. I also will never take a trade that is not at least a minimum of 1:1 (and this, is obviously not preferred, but it's a baseline).

I know a guy whom is a phenomenal trader. His win ratio is around 35%. He very rarely risks more than the spread + a few pips for entries. He is knocked out a lot, but that one single win pays for all losses and well beyond enough to fund his account for the next round. I still don't quite understand how he pinpoints his entries, but hey, it works for him, so more power to him.

You are right. This is not difficult. There is no need for a dick swinging contest. Place your bets, you are either right or you are wrong. Move on... I did that very same thing in this very thread, what was that, last month? I called the bottom on the Dixie and was proven wrong. No if's, and's, or butt's about it. I moved on, placed new trades and made back what I lost and a few extra coins because I follow proper risk management.

You find your edge, document it, plan it, and execute it. No deviation, no room for emotions. Pure mechanical.

FAZ Update
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAZ

This has almost returned to my buy zone in demand. I'll be looking for bear weakness around 17$. Risk of course, a few below the lows.

Well said.....

Trading is a funny business, unfortunately it's probably unavoidable that you will have to deal with idiots, liars and arrogant faceless strangers on internet forums.

Life is not much different really either, your boss, colleagues, clients and sometimes even your own family can be so full of it, it makes you sick but that's life.

Trading (and life really) is about using common sense to navigate your way around these people. Providing you are smart enough you will learn from these people what NOT to do and develop in a positive way. With trading most people are in a rush to get 'stuck in' and make money hence why they fall victim to these websites selling 'systems' that will make you rich for only $99!......common sense people....

Weeding out the idiots is not easy and the vouch system attempts to do this but is far from foolproof. Present company excluded, I have seen 10+v members post some horrible content on other threads but, it's not hard to weed these fools out either....again common sense.

Be assured though there are some decent people out there, just be prepared for the others. I'm sure I don't need to tell followers of this thread this, as clearly they know that they have found a diamond in the rough.

All good things take time and trading is no different. Profits, setups and most of all success takes time....time that most people don't have the time to allocate.

I don't know Chris personally but I have lurked around this thread and his other websites for quite some time, mostly because he seemed like a 'pretty decent rooster' amongst a bunch of 'others'.

Good trading all.

Yes, I openly promote this thread on my own threads and even my own website. Much of what I do is built on what I learned here.

I think the last few posts are some of the most thoughtful and insightful things I have ever read on FF.

Someone once described this thread as the 'thinking man's' thread, or something like that - how true.

Great stuff

Never did understand why the Yen was so strong - it may be about to change tho....

!