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  • #15,861
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:18am Nov 19, 2012 3:18am
I still see this as a part of correction on higher TFs. The problem is if EU breaks 2640 it will target 2500 and 2450 levels, but those must be supported by fundies, and fundies have been more hawkish later giving a pullback some strength.

So the strategy is, go with main trend ( bearish) on rallies and scalp on lower TFs ( exploiting ups and downs). Scalping the trend is still the safer option then going for a home run with positional trading.

1. Get a bigger picture ( main trend, intraday levels)
2. Define entry point and stop per rally ( since we are in downtrend)
3. Watch PA at important zones/levels, if those are broken fast wait for next level, if not take the profit.
4. Take profit
5. In case SL has been hit, dont revenge it, wait for another opportunity.
  • #15,862
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:57am Nov 19, 2012 3:57am
Quoting T@rantula
I still see this as a part of correction on higher TFs. The problem is if EU breaks 2640 it will target 2500 and 2450 levels, but those must be supported by fundies, and fundies have been more hawkish later giving a pullback some strength.

So the strategy is, go with main trend ( bearish) on rallies and scalp on lower TFs ( exploiting ups and downs). Scalping the trend is still the safer option then going for a home run with positional trading.

1. Get a bigger picture ( main trend, intraday levels)
2. Define entry point and stop per rally (...

agree completely... one more leg down - by that i mean a 5th wave down but until we break 2640-5 we will still be correcting... as said before 2660 is not the low for the whole move down from 1.3172...
  • #15,863
  • Nov 19, 2012 4:15am Nov 19, 2012 4:15am
Fwiw I am talking my own book.. but here's my simple classic TA takes for Euro..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121118-073301 elephant golden ellipse.png Size: 86 KB


While my short & medium term Bias for EURUSD had been bearish since mid-October..
There are signs now flashing for more consolidation or continuation of the M/T up trend from July prior to a widely expected break below 1.2650..
H4 had breached the S/T TL in resolving the bullish divergence confirming the Daily bullish engulfing reversal from the L/T confluence support/demand zone 1.2720~1.2650 dating back to 2008.. along with newly gained support from its Crosses & Cable, I see more upside potential then a retest & break below 1.2650 from here..

Trading is all about taking as much out of the market when you're right.. so there's nothing wrong in betting with conviction as long as we bet with proper adjusted risk & MM..
  • #15,864
  • Nov 19, 2012 7:08am Nov 19, 2012 7:08am
Got in late but shorted at 2768. Looking for 2704 but will cash in earlier depending on momentum. 2744 the hurdle.
  • #15,865
  • Edited 1:56pm Nov 19, 2012 11:19am | Edited 1:56pm
1h TF



when the suggested ABC-flat count is right, then it would be nice to see another small attempt higher, but that is not necessary:


when I measure the top of the blue A and the bottom of blue B I get a A=C target of around 2806, which we have taken out a bit, but are staying in the blue base channel

when I measure not from the top of the blue A but take the following top (the B-wave top inside wave blue B) @ 2802, we need now 2831 for A=C


when wave blue C should get an impulse, we might now be in wave 3 of it (maybe subwave 4 of wave 3). In this case the ideal target for the movement up would be 2888


But it is really hard to say what count may evolve. Maybe the blue ABC is in fact a WXY. In this case the top is eventually already in.


I place right now a sell stop @ 2770 for a target of 2756 first

I will reshort a retest from the lower side of 2756 with a SL just above 2770 (in any case: that is the beter trade of the two)


PO sell @ 2829, TP1 2772, TP2 2758, TP3 2695 (depends on momentum then, evtually deeper), SL above 2890 (looks like bad R:R, but I take that trade)

PO sell @ 2865, SL behind 2890 first TP 2756

PO sell @ 2880, SL behind 2940 first TP 2756
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot.jpg Size: 164 KB
  • #15,866
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:22am Nov 19, 2012 11:22am
Quoting jaylovin
Got in late but shorted at 2768. Looking for 2704 but will cash in earlier depending on momentum. 2744 the hurdle.

stopped out -8
  • #15,867
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:28pm Nov 19, 2012 12:28pm
Quoting infinitus
1h TF



when the suggested ABC-flat count is right, then it would be nice to see another small attempt higher, but that is not necessary:


w
I have mostly skipped today's trading day, and I reckon we might see interesting day tomorrow. If 2815 gets broken and retested as a new support, we will see invalidated bearish pattern and we should buy the dips then.

2815 short today was good for some 10 pips but thats not enough if price wants to stay bearish. Only below 2770 we might see bears strength.

We also saw a classic Murrey pattern today:

5/8-4/8-6/8-5/8-7/8
  • #15,868
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:29pm Nov 19, 2012 12:29pm
Quoting cdndollar
Fwiw I am talking my own book.. but here's my simple classic TA takes for Euro..

Attachment

While my short & medium term Bias for EURUSD had been bearish since mid-October..
There are signs now flashing for more consolidation or continuation of the M/T up trend from July prior to a widely expected break below 1.2650..
H4 had breached the S/T TL in resolving the bullish divergence confirming the Daily bullish engulfing reversal from the L/T...
GOOD STUFF.. Thanks yr thoughts
  • #15,869
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:31pm Nov 19, 2012 12:31pm
Quoting T@rantula
I have mostly skipped today's trading day, and I reckon we might see interesting day tomorrow. If 2815 gets broken and retested as a new support, we will see invalidated bearish pattern and we should buy the dips then.

2815 short today was good for some 10 pips but thats not enough if price wants to stay bearish. Only below 2770 we might see bears strength.
And you 2 T.. Thanks.. yr i went to bed early last night..very bland stuff.. i do feel a btm ish mood is in the air thou..maby just me.. mite see if i can get a few points mid morn Aussie
  • #15,870
  • Nov 19, 2012 3:51pm Nov 19, 2012 3:51pm
As a matter of interest..I record 3 day.. pivots.. center point.. quite often or mostly u can tell when market has changed directio,.. when it trades constant above this point.. has done so last 7 times
  • #15,871
  • Nov 19, 2012 5:34pm Nov 19, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting danc
As a matter of interest..I record 3 day.. pivots.. center point.. quite often or mostly u can tell when market has changed directio,.. when it trades constant above this point.. has done so last 7 times
based on above and 4 hr charts.. i am long Cable and EUUD..12780..and5894
  • #15,872
  • Nov 19, 2012 11:59pm Nov 19, 2012 11:59pm
Guys,

we have bullish railway pattern on h4 formed. It seems next targets are 2840-60.
  • #15,873
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:12am Nov 20, 2012 12:12am
Also a potential mat hold/rising 3 methods along with railway..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euu.jpg Size: 139 KB
  • #15,874
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:19am Nov 20, 2012 12:19am
Quoting T@rantula
Also a potential mat hold/rising 3 methods along with railway..

Attachment
Hahah, this was a lot faster then i expected!! ))
  • #15,875
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:22am Nov 20, 2012 12:22am
Quoting T@rantula
Guys,

we have bullish railway pattern on h4 formed. It seems next targets are 2840-60.
2875 here
But bouncing @2780 over and over still possible
  • #15,876
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:25am Nov 20, 2012 12:25am
Quoting egkid
2875 here
Even better, EG! For short scalps ill be looking to short around 2840 or 50
  • #15,877
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:42am Nov 20, 2012 12:42am
Quoting T@rantula
Also a potential mat hold/rising 3 methods along with railway..

Attachment
Both new ones me.. sorta knew Mat hold
  • #15,878
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:50am Nov 20, 2012 12:50am
Quoting danc
based on above and 4 hr charts.. i am long Cable and EUUD..12780..and5894


morning Guys.. looks like there's now good demand in-front of 1.2750..

in addition to bullish railway pattern & elephant paths..
USD Index resolving H4 & D1 Divergences..
Good odds for cross-over & reverse scenario..
ie. Euro ---> 1.2660 reverse ---> 1.32/1.35

Dollar Index vs EURUSD @11202012
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU DX capture-20121120-080915.png Size: 78 KB
  • #15,879
  • Nov 20, 2012 12:57am Nov 20, 2012 12:57am
2817, say it 2815 big rejection, mark that on your charts, a break above it will be fast 1.
  • #15,880
  • Nov 20, 2012 1:13am Nov 20, 2012 1:13am
Quoting cdndollar


morning Guys.. looks like there's now good demand in-front of 1.2750..

in addition to bullish railway pattern & elephant paths..
USD Index resolving H4 & D1 Divergences..
Good odds for cross-over & reverse scenario..
ie. Euro ---> 1.2660 reverse ---> 1.32/1.35

Dollar Index vs EURUSD @11202012
Attachment
Looks very interesting, nice charts coinciding with bulllish scenarios.
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