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  • #15,841
  • Nov 16, 2012 5:36pm Nov 16, 2012 5:36pm
Quoting infinitus
Hi CDN,

thank you very much.


Right now I am not sure, where we are heading next. Have to do a bit more analyses over the next hours or weekend. I will post the results later here.

Very nice people here in this fine thread. It is nice to come here every here and then. Over the last year or so I backed the wrong person here in FF and lost many contacts to nice people in FF. Sometimes my judgment sucks when it comes to people and their intentions. But well, lesson learned..........

Nice to be here :-)


Have all a nice weekend,


Markus
Good Morning Markus & T from this island south of the rising sun..
Its also my pleasure to meet all the nice people here in this fine thread.. a wonderful to place to hang-out & share ideas with each other..

Next week is shaping up to be a very interesting week with this EURUSD tug o war between the S/T momentum predators/fundies & M/T money bulls scaling in good risk adjusted positions at this L/T confluence zone..
Euro is getting good support from its Crosses.. in particular from EURGBP & EURJPY, my twin guide dogs go back for many moons now.. along with the lager GBPUSD finding M/T support here @ the 1.5800 confluence zone, Euro could be on the verge of making a substantial move over the S/T..

FWIW here are the Euro weekly & EURO+EURGBP+EURJPY charts posted over at the fundie thread earlier to balance the "anti-hopium"..

enjoy your day..
C
  • #15,842
  • Nov 18, 2012 4:12am Nov 18, 2012 4:12am
Quoting T@rantula
Hey Markus, Im very glad you are back as you are one of the nicest persons i've met here. You are always welcome as you are: 1. Good and kind person 2. Very good EW analyst and trader.

We both know who the person is and its good we dont have to deal with him anymore. Better late then never


Thank you very much I can give all that right back to you :-)


Yes, better later than never. I considered him to be kind of a friend over a long time and I thought him to be a person with rough edges, kind of weirdo or fuddy-doody, someone who has a hidden good core. But in reality it is more like rotten in the core, since he is again and again a person who stabs you a knife in your back everytime you turn your back against him.

But that is now history and all is left is anger about myself for my stupidity


Enough of that, back to trading.......


See next post for my Murrey Math analysis
  • #15,843
  • Nov 18, 2012 4:14am Nov 18, 2012 4:14am
Murrey Math analysis


weekly:

we got fairly strong rejection at around 4/8 pivot @ 2695 on Friday. Should price march higher, we have multiple layers of very strong resistance overhead.

2817 is the first to watch. Then 2940 to literally 3427 have been strong battle zones in the past.

A break of 2940 may lead relatively quickly to 3184. Only a break of 3184 may give way to the 40x to 45x clusterzone

A break of 2695 to the downside may open 2573 but more importantly 2451.

A loss of 2451 gives way to the support shelfs of 2329 and 2207. Loss of 2207 may lead to retest of the 1.18x low, probably a break of it.


daily

Fridays rejection from the 0/8 @ 2695 may lead now to a retest of the 2878 (3/8) to 2940 (4/8).

2817 is the 2/8 which has also be tested several times in the past. Movement may stop here, but from a Murrey Math perspective it is a rather weak resistance now on daily TF.

Definitively the better chances for shorting will occur around 2878 and later on at 2940


On the downside a break of 2695 should open the 260 area. For me out of other considerations like EW and fibs the 2605 area offers the best target for a move down. After that I would expect out of todays view some consolidation for a few days.

2634 to 2170 is a heavy battle field. Do not expect price to slide through it like a hot knife through butter :-)

To crack this layer we certainly need a lot of momentum or much time.



4h TF

2695 is the 0/8, 2817 the 4/8 pivot, 2940 the 8/8

when price breaks the 2787 resistance, 2817 is the next target. Fibs call for 2836, 2878 and finally 2927

Being below 2787 2741 to 2756 will offer a lot of resistance. So maybe we will see a retest of lower side first before further up.

Break of 2695 to the lower side will certainly cause an octave jump to open the 260x area


1h TF

2695 is 0/8, 2756 is 4/8, 2817 is 8/8

2756 may be reached easily. 2787 is the goalkeeper for more bullishness. Break of 2787 will lead to 2817 to 2833

When 2817 is reached quickly do not expect much more upside without a meaningful retracement first.

2756 to 2772 may be a good area for a short scalp.

Break of 2695 will certainly cause an octave jump and gives way to the 260x area


From an Elliott wave point of view I have no strong view for the movements from the 2659 low. So to judge this whole short term situation right now by Elliott wave is a no go for me.

Higher probability setups on 1h TF are as following:

a) sell stop at 2687 (or at retest of it from the lower side) with TP at 2665, 2634 and 2605 (SL behind 2711)

b) sell limit between 2756 and 2772 with SL above 2787 and TP 2726 and 2711

c) sell limit between 2817 and 2833 with SL above 2848 and TP 2772, 2756 and 2710, eventually let one part of the position simply run to much deeper levels around 2605



15min TF


2695 is 0/8, 2726 is 4/8 and 2756 is 8/8

Upwards movement should stall in the 2749 to 2766 (DPP) area. After that we should see a retracement towards 2756 or 2718. Should it move lower watch momentum at 2711 to 2695


5min TF

price is open to 2756 to 2764 area. After that expect at least consolidation.
  • #15,844
  • Nov 18, 2012 5:06am Nov 18, 2012 5:06am
Quoting infinitus
Murrey Math analysis


weekly:

we got fairly strong rejection at around 4/8 pivot @ 2695 on Friday. Should price march higher, we have multiple layers of very strong resistance overhead.

2817 is the first to watch. Then 2940 to literally 3427 have been strong battle zones in the past.

A break of 2940 may lead relatively quickly to 3184. Only a break of 3184 may give way to the 40x to 45x clusterzone

A break of 2695 to the downside may open 2573 but more importantly 2451.

A loss of 2451 gives way to...
Channels and S/R zones
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,845
  • Nov 18, 2012 5:14am Nov 18, 2012 5:14am
Quoting infinitus
Channels and S/R zones
same on 1h TF with upsloping blue channel and fib expansion and possible targets for an ABC-flat (we are probably now in impulsive wave C up)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,846
  • Nov 18, 2012 5:24pm Nov 18, 2012 5:24pm
Quoting T@rantula
I have been using Range Bar charts last 6 months, they are just excellent.
Been comparing it to Renko...it serves me better.


I have been using a script for range bar charts. Put it in experts folder, place on m1 chart, enter range bar value and chart number( for example EU timeframe 2). Then open offline chart with that number ( EU 2)

Mind you that RANGE BAR charts are NOT time dependant, and they actually filter the noise very good. It serves me as the edge in trading.

Attachment
Cheers for this
Time hides Nothing
  • #15,847
  • Nov 18, 2012 11:51pm Nov 18, 2012 11:51pm
cable short.. 5909 stop 5914.. picture 15m
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  • #15,848
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:03am Nov 19, 2012 12:03am
We have a nice pattern forming on intraday charts and that can give us a nice r:r ratio particularly if 1h holds bullish until 2770-85 zone.
So for now its best to sell into rallies particularly around 2770-85 zone. Stops should be around 2788 or 2815 at the most. If we get above 2815 then the pattern will fail.
  • #15,849
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:06am Nov 19, 2012 12:06am
Quoting infinitus
Murrey Math analysis


weekly:

w
Excellent analysis through all timeframes. Thats it, murrey math and pivot lines combined. We all should know how those lines are powerful
  • #15,850
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:06am Nov 19, 2012 12:06am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Cheers for this
  • #15,851
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:11am Nov 19, 2012 12:11am
Quoting danc
cable short.. 5909 stop 5914.. picture 15m
closed 9
  • #15,852
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:13am Nov 19, 2012 12:13am
Quoting danc
closed 9
Cable has been a real nasty last week, today it might go to 5950 again.
  • #15,853
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:29am Nov 19, 2012 12:29am
Quoting T@rantula
Cable has been a real nasty last week, today it might go to 5950 again.
morning..
add long 1.2757 with 28 pips stop..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #15,854
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:45am Nov 19, 2012 12:45am
Quoting cdndollar
morning..
add long 1.2757 with 28 pips stop..

Attachment
Well done on countering!
  • #15,855
  • Nov 19, 2012 12:50am Nov 19, 2012 12:50am
Quoting T@rantula
Well done on countering!
thanks T.. stop @+10.. mini term support shifted up to 70 by the boys..
  • #15,856
  • Nov 19, 2012 1:34am Nov 19, 2012 1:34am
85 got rejected...68 now...lets see 65 reaction now..
  • #15,857
  • Nov 19, 2012 1:36am Nov 19, 2012 1:36am
add Cable here @98 with 18 pips stop..
on break over 1.5920, the eccentric old fella may push cousin Euro up above the 1.28 skies...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: capture-20121119-093110 GBP M15.png Size: 27 KB
  • #15,858
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:39am Nov 19, 2012 2:39am
morning - now if 2788 holds.. its target could well be 2704... lets see.. i personally don't like these correction moves i have sold at 2771... very small lot so not damaging if i loose on this one...

EDIT: Just as a general note... we have one more leg down but this can rise up to 1.29 before taking out 2660... buying for scalps lower down 2660, 2680-90, 2704.

and selling at 2788, 2803, 2826 (scalp), 2846, 2881 (Strong) is the best option...

2660 isn't the low imo.. but this is all corrective crap so hit and run - its the only way to survive in these market conditions imo..
  • #15,859
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:53am Nov 19, 2012 2:53am
Quoting jaylovin
morning - now if 2788 holds.. its target could well be 2704... lets see.. i personally don't like these correction moves i have sold at 2771... very small lot so not damaging if i loose on this one...

EDIT: Just as a general note... we have one more leg down but this can rise up to 1.29 before taking out 2660... buying for scalps lower down 2660, 2680-90, 2704.

and selling at 2788, 2803, 2826 (scalp), 2846, 2881 (Strong) is the best option...

2660 isn't the low imo.. but this is all corrective crap so hit and run - its the only way...


Exactly what I think, too


Would have liked to see a quick move south this morning, below 2756, to sort out a few things

maybe we build here on the way down the B-leg (down) of an ABC-flat (up), hence the slow grinding, overlapping waves (down) now?


Well, we will see early enough :-)



Hi to all,

again nice work and ongoing analysis here.......
  • #15,860
  • Nov 19, 2012 2:58am Nov 19, 2012 2:58am
Quoting infinitus
Exactly what I think, too


Would have liked to see a quick move south this morning, below 2756, to sort out a few things

maybe we build here on the way down the B-leg (down) of an ABC-flat (up), hence the slow grinding, overlapping waves (down) now?


Well, we will see early enough :-)



Hi to all,

again nice work and ongoing analysis here.......

hi buddy

also forgot to mention the 2645 level... if we get there and reject - an expanded flat could be in the works... i have two correlations right now... we can either drop down to 2704 now where there would be a buy opportunity imo...

OR

we are in a different wave which will take us up to 2847 before a turn down.... i have a feeling this though week we will have a heavy sell off but will still be in correction mode... and this correction will last a while so keep your guards up... wait for entries - always wait for entries...
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