Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

Shouldnt we be longing the Canadian if you think its going to get up to 1.1100 then?

Wednesday 5/31/2006 8:15 ET

We shorted USD/CAD on Friday May 26 from about 1.1100, and that trade is complete, as the target was met. We expect it to descend on further down to the 1.0850 area after it retraces upwards for a little while. We will let it retrace a bit, and then watch for a re-entry opportunity to short it again. The trend is strongly downwards.

In fact, one could probably short it now at 1.0955 and hold until it comes close to 1.0850 for a 100 pip profit trade. But that would be little more than a guess.

The stop would be difficult to estimate, because it is in the midpoint of a trend, and not at the extremity of a trend. However, 1.0977 is a good guess.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 13:00 ET

TS#83 Sell USD/CAD at market price - approx. 1.1030 - 1.1040

Stop is 1.1056

Target is 1.0875

Risk is max. 26 pips

Reward is min. 155 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 14:15 ET

TS#84 Sell USD/JPY at market price - approx. 112.65 - 112.75

Stop is 113.03

Target #1 is 111.32

Target #2 is 110.84

Risk is max. 42 pips

Reward (Target #1) is min. 129 pips

Reward (Target #2) is min. 177 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.1 ( Target #1)

Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.2 ( Target #2)

For research purposes only.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 15:30 ET

TS#85 Sell USD/CHF at market price 1.2180 - 1.2195

Stop is 1.2207

Target #1 is 1.2110

Target #2 is 1.2085

Target # 3 is 1.1945

Risk is max. 29 pips.

Rewards (T1, T2, T3) are min. 66, 91 and 231 pips

Reward : Risk ratios are min. 2.3, 3.1, and 8.0 to 1

For research purposes only.

so will this mean that conversely EURUSD will go back up since USDCHF and EURUSD travel in opposite directions?

Yes, Yardie, we have reached our targets as stated above:

"EUR/USD target is likely about 1.2805 to 1.2830, with 1.2805 our preferred estimate.

GBP/USD is likely to fall to between 1.8740 and 1.8773."

EUR/USD reached a low of 1.2803, and GBP/USD reached a low of 1.8684.

You may go long on these currencies, but we prefer shorting USD/JPY and USD/CHF.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 12:45 ET

We were stopped out by 8 pips on this trade when the price spiked up. We recommend re-entering at an opportune time, preferably on a rise. It may fall fast, so perhaps an entry at market price of about 1.2200 would be best.
It rose to 1.2215, so entering at close to this price is best.

Stop is now 1.2233

____________________________________________________

Original trade signal:
Wednesday 5/31/2006 15:30 ET
TS#85 Sell USD/CHF at market price 1.2180 - 1.2195
Stop is 1.2207
Target #1 is 1.2110
Target #2 is 1.2085
Target # 3 is 1.1945
Risk is max. 29 pips.
Rewards (T1, T2, T3) are min. 66, 91 and 231 pips
Reward : Risk ratios are min. 2.3, 3.1, and 8.0 to 1
For research purposes only.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 22:00 ET

TS# 86

Buy GBP/USD at market price, approx. 1.8664, or lower

Stop is 1.8645

Target is 1.8861

Risk is max. 23 pips

Reward is min. 193 pips

Reward : risk ratio is 8.4 to 1

For research and testing purposes only.

Wednesday 5/31/2006 23:15 ET

Adjust stop to 1.1071

___________________________________

Original trade signal:
Wednesday 5/31/2006 13:00 ET
TS#83 Sell USD/CAD at market price - approx. 1.1030 - 1.1040
Stop is 1.1056
Target is 1.0875
Risk is max. 26 pips
Reward is min. 155 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.0 to 1
For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/1/2006 00:15 ET

We were stopped out on the original trade, and came very close to being stopped out again after we re-entered. Current price is 1.2225. If the price rises again and stops us out, then.....

Re-enter short USD/CHF at 1.2245 or higher

Stop is 1.2277

Risk is max. 36 pips

Reward is min. 296 pips (for Target #3, which is likely to be met)

Reward : Risk ratio is 5.4 to 1

______________________________________________________

Original trade signals:

Re-enter TS#85 Sell USD/CHF on a rise, or at market price
Wednesday 5/31/2006 12:45 ET

We were stopped out by 8 pips on this trade when the price spiked up. We recommend re-entering at an opportune time, preferably on a rise. It may fall fast, so perhaps an entry at market price of about 1.2200 would be best.
It rose to 1.2215, so entering at close to this price is best.

Stop is now 1.2233


Wednesday 5/31/2006 15:30 ET
TS#85 Sell USD/CHF at market price 1.2180 - 1.2195
Stop is 1.2207
Target #1 is 1.2110
Target #2 is 1.2085
Target # 3 is 1.1945
Risk is max. 29 pips.
Rewards (T1, T2, T3) are min. 66, 91 and 231 pips
Reward : Risk ratios are min. 2.3, 3.1, and 8.0 to 1
For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/1/2006 00:30 ET

We were barely stopped out on this trade. Re-enter at 1.8625 or lower, and place stop at 1.8596

Risk is max. 34 pips

Reward is min. 232 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.8 to 1

_________________________________

Original trade signal:

Wednesday 5/31/2006 22:00 ET
TS# 86 Buy GBP/USD at market price, approx. 1.8664, or lower
Stop is 1.8645
Target is 1.8861
Risk is max. 23 pips
Reward is min. 193 pips
Reward : risk ratio is 8.4 to 1
For research and testing purposes only.

I do not know whether I have to write something on this thread or not? If it is personal or resricted then plz notify me for future.
In my view GBP/USd is going to break 1.8600 and may even violate or touch 1.8590 so stoploss should be lower than that.
Regarding USD/CHf my view is that it will violate 1.2250 so stop loss above than that or should wait till it goes back below 1.2250.

I do not know about everyone else, but I got stopped out long ago, with FXCM going to 1.2235. I have a feeling that sometimes there are some rather wide differences between brokers. Does anyone else get this impression? Or was FXCM the only broker to go that high over an hour ago?

Yes O-anda touched 1.2234.

And you will see it will go up yet.Have patience.

Itme it seems like your system was off today.

Thursday 6/1/2006 9:00 ET

USD/CAD hit our adjusted stop. Probable turning point was just met at 1.1099. It may go up one more time however. So try to buy in as close to 1.1100 as possible. It will probably form a double top at about this price. Current price is 1.1088.

Stop is 1.1128

Reliability: good

_______________________________________________________

Previous trade signals:
Wednesday 5/31/2006 23:15 ET
Adjust stop to 1.1071
___________________________________

First trade signal:
Wednesday 5/31/2006 13:00 ET
TS#83 Sell USD/CAD at market price - approx. 1.1030 - 1.1040
Stop is 1.1056
Target is 1.0875
Risk is max. 26 pips
Reward is min. 155 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 6.0 to 1
For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/1/2006 9:45 ET

TS#85B Re-enter USD/CHF short at opportune time

Our short trade in USD/CHF was stopped out, and has reached a high of 1.2291. This is probably the ultimate high of this trend, though it may come up one more time to form a double top. In case it never reaches this higher price again,

Sell USD/CHF at market price of approx. 1.2270 to 1.2280 or higher

Stop is 1.2309

Risk is max. 43 pips

Target #1 is 1.2110
Target #2 is 1.2085
Target # 3 is 1.1945

Reward for Target #3 is min. 321 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 7.5 to 1

______________________________________________________

Earlier trade signal:
TS#85A - If need be, then Re-enter - Sell USD/CHF at 1.2245 or higher Thursday 6/1/2006 00:15 ET
We were stopped out on the original trade, and came very close to being stopped out again after we re-entered. Current price is 1.2225. If the price rises again and stops us out, then.....
Re-enter short USD/CHF at 1.2245 or higher
Stop is 1.2277
Risk is max. 36 pips
Reward is min. 296 pips (for Target #3, which is likely to be met)
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.4 to 1

Thursday 6/1/2006 10:15 ET

Our short UD/JPY position was stopped out by a rise to about 113.40. We believe that this is the top of this up trend. It is possible that this pair will rise once again to confirm or challenge this high, but judging by the pattern and the strength of this first down thrust, this probably won't happen.

Re-enter at present time at a price of about 113.00

Stop is 113.54

Risk is max. 58 pips

Reward is min. 214 pips for Target #2 (which is likely to be met, and even further in fact)

Reward : Risk is 3.7 to 1

_______________________________________

Previous trade signal:
Wednesday 5/31/2006 14:15 ET
TS#84 Sell USD/JPY at market price - approx. 112.65 - 112.75
Stop is 113.03
Target #1 is 111.32
Target #2 is 110.84
Risk is max. 42 pips
Reward (Target #1) is min. 129 pips
Reward (Target #2) is min. 177 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 3.1 ( Target #1)
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 4.2 ( Target #2)
For research purposes only.

Thursday 6/1/2006 10:30 ET

This trade progressed down to 1.6768 and then headed back up to form a double top at around the 1.7140 mark.

Re-enter short EUR/AUD at market price of about 1.7140 to 1.7150

Stop is 1.7178

Target #1 is 1.6800

Target #2 is 1.6725

Risk is max. 53 pips

Reward #1 is min. 325 pips ( Reward : Risk ratio is 6.1 to 1)

Reward #2 is min. 400 pips (Reward : Risk ratio is 7.5 to 1)

_________________________________________

Original trade signal:

TS#76 Sell EUR/AUD at market price of 1.7030 approx. Tuesday 5/23/2006 17:00 ET
TS#76
Stop is 1.7101
Target is 1.6640
Reward is min. 405 pips
Risk is max. 56 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is min. 7.2 to 1
For testing purposes only.