Existing Backtested Forex Systems | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Backtested reverse Dax open 5 min 6 replies

Dancing with EMA - backtested and modified 0 replies

Systems, Systems and Systems... 1 reply

EA backtested profits not changing with different periods. 1 reply

Is there an ECN that will deliver 3 year backtested results of >2% a month? 7 replies

Existing Backtested Forex Systems

  • #1
  • First Post: May 18, 2011 5:07am May 18, 2011 5:07am
Hi,

Considering that backtesting has been around for a very long time, is there a list of consistently profitable backtested forex systems available anywhere? Results that show profitability over say the last 10 years or more.

Thanks.
  • #2
  • May 18, 2011 5:10am May 18, 2011 5:10am
Quoting jasonnevis
Hi,

Considering that backtesting has been around for a very long time, is there a list of consistently profitable backtested forex systems available anywhere? Results that show profitability over say the last 10 years or more.

Thanks.
If there was such a list, the "Trading Systems" section of the FF would have only one thread, namely "Consistently Profitable Backtested Forex Systems" and it would have 10,000,000,000,000 posts and 10,000,000,000,000,000,000 views.
  • #3
  • May 18, 2011 5:45am May 18, 2011 5:45am
Hi,

as far as I am concerned, backtesting for such a long time period only exists with the use of an EA. However, every EA has limitations. As Steve Hopwood mentions, an EA's performance can at most be 90% as good as manual performance (I don't remember the exact words, but he mentioned something like this). This means that you cannot really have a realistic picture of how a system has worked in the past 10 years, unless you can find someone who has been trading a strategy for 10 years and is willing to share the results.


ps, sorry for my English
  • #4
  • May 18, 2011 6:44am May 18, 2011 6:44am
It might seem obvious that backtesting doesn't guarantee future success but that's the problem with backtested systems. Markets change and often the best systems are kept secret while they're still working.

One of the most successful systems was Richard Dennis's system which he taught to a group of people who then made him a huge fortune by applying it. If you read up on it's backtesting you'll see it was shown to be highly profitable for a long period of time (about 10 years I think) and then it stopped being as profitable.

My advice to you is to do what feels natural for you. Keep a journal of market conditions when you're doing well and when you're doing bad and find what you're naturally good at. Certain market conditions occur hundreds of times of a period of years and if you can learn to master them you can get very wealthy by just waiting for those conditions to make your trades. If you only trade twice a month but can make 2.5-5% during those trades that's an 80% increase a year.

Good Luck to you and lots of pips.
  • #5
  • May 18, 2011 6:58am May 18, 2011 6:58am
Thanks for the reply's

I know this question may sound immature but I find it surprising that out of all the different indicators and bullshit that exists within the trading world, that there isn't just at least one system that shows slow consistent profits over many years. Not even a MA system?????

Just goes to show....

When I search on google for the words "backtested forex systems" I don't get any result that point me to a system that actually shows me a forex backtested forex system with results that produce profits. I know this is just a google search and it is open to whatever results it finds, but I can tell you that there are so many hits for people trying to sell you appz or ways to backtest....I just find it strange that there are not any list, even as slightly profitable as they might be, that show a consistent profit by using past data.

Even if I get all my money and give it to a bank, they can at least tell me that I will get 6% / year. It's a joke that there isn't any system out there that can beat that!

Is this whole industry just a sham?
  • #6
  • May 18, 2011 7:32am May 18, 2011 7:32am
The 'systems' that beat them % increases are usually systems you wont hear about nor will they be 100% shared publicly due to the amount of work put into their development.

The ones you do see, well unfortunately not many will work and thats because those who 'do' share systems (not everyone!) dont thoroughly test them.

What you see here on FF and any other forum is MOSTLY bits and pieces of so called systems. But not many are complete.

Quoting jasonnevis
Thanks for the reply's

I know this question may sound immature but I find it surprising that out of all the different indicators and bullshit that exists within the trading world, that there isn't just at least one system that shows slow consistent profits over many years. Not even a MA system?????

Just goes to show....

When I search on google for the words "backtested forex systems" I don't get any result that point me to a system that actually shows me a forex backtested forex system with results that produce profits. I know this...
  • #7
  • May 18, 2011 7:42am May 18, 2011 7:42am
Thanks Pipalicious,

You mean to tell me that there isn't just one system that has leaked from the secret masters who develop them onto the streets of forex factory that is profitable.

Not even a system that produces slight gains per year?

I know the big boys on wall street have a secret system ... it's called insider trading. I would consider that a secret development not to be advertised on FF, but to earn a simple 10% / year I would expect to be common knowledge amongst this crowd on FF.
  • #8
  • May 18, 2011 7:52am May 18, 2011 7:52am
Maybe there is, maybe there isnt.

In all honesty, the only way you will truly find out if it is a solid consistent approach is by testing it thoroughly yourself.

No one here has as much interest in you, as you do.

Its a question of: Should I 'blindly' trust someone elses opinions, or shall i trust my own statistical research and THEN conclude whats true and what isnt?

Quoting jasonnevis
Thanks Pipalicious,

You mean to tell me that there isn't just one system that has leaked from the secret masters who develop them onto the streets of forex factory that is profitable.

Not even a system that produces slight gains per year?

I know the big boys on wall street have a secret system ... it's called insider trading. I would consider that a secret development not to be advertised on FF, but to earn a simple 10% / year I would expect to be common knowledge amongst this crowd on FF.
  • #9
  • May 18, 2011 8:02am May 18, 2011 8:02am
Thanks Pipalicious,

I understand your response, and it is the exact response I hear time and time again. No offence please.

Do your own testing, buy this backtesting software, sign up to this data feed.... and so on.

Is there no body who has been through this whole process before me and can put their hand on their hear and say.....

" I have tested a 200 day exponential moving average system on all pairs for both buy and sell directions and can report to you that it is not profitable, do not bother testing this one guys"

I could imagine that there are thousands of people before me that have tried this...

I know I might sound like I am a freeloader who doesn't want to put in the hard yards, but it's amazing that everyone needs to start from scratch and there isn't any resource available that can sift out the good from the bad. If you know what I mean.

Pipalicious, I agree with what your saying as this is how most discoveries have been made through history, Eienstein, Galileio, Darwin... they all were about discovering and observing the results. Testing and reason.
  • #10
  • May 18, 2011 8:07am May 18, 2011 8:07am
jason,

It isnt about freeloading on someone elses work.

Like i mentioned before, it isnt simply about "go test it yourself"...

Its about if the person you are taking advice from has his best interest in helping <<<YOU>>>.

If i said to you, hey! DONT bother trying to mix cereals with milk because it doesnt work and its crap....would you believe me?

Corny example yes, but the point here is once again, are you willing to <<<BLINDLY>>> follow someones advice because 'they' say it works/doesnt work?

Thats all mate, my humblest unbiased opinion

Quoting jasonnevis
Thanks Pipalicious,

I understand your response, and it is the exact response I hear time and time again. No offence please.

Do your own testing, buy this backtesting software, sign up to this data feed.... and so on.

Is there no body who has been through this whole process before me and can put their hand on their hear and say.....

" I have tested a 200 day exponential moving average system on all pairs for both buy and sell directions and can report to you that it is not profitable, do not bother testing this one guys"

I...
  • #11
  • May 18, 2011 8:17am May 18, 2011 8:17am
I appreciate your comments and have taken it onboard.

I guess the whole backtesting sector just want you to buy their software, datafeeds and spend huge amounts of time discovering the discovered.

I should focus on providing a service instead of forex trading. At least I will be garenteed to make money.
  • #12
  • May 18, 2011 8:38am May 18, 2011 8:38am
Backtest does not guarrantee future profits, but if you are interested google .. "robocop strategy mall"
  • #13
  • May 18, 2011 8:46am May 18, 2011 8:46am
Quoting jasonnevis
I appreciate your comments and have taken it onboard.

I guess the whole backtesting sector just want you to buy their software, datafeeds and spend huge amounts of time discovering the discovered.

I should focus on providing a service instead of forex trading. At least I will be garenteed to make money.
Yeah thats a good 'alternative' i guess.

but i will add that you dont require expensive backtesting software (i know what you mean and empathize with you on this).

You can develop simple tests with excel and basic ohlc data and start with that.

hope this helps
  • #14
  • May 18, 2011 9:08am May 18, 2011 9:08am
What you are asking is: Who is going to make me rich?

Short Answer: Nobody!
  • #15
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:39am Nov 18, 2012 8:39am
Quoting jasonnevis
Hi,

Considering that backtesting has been around for a very long time, is there a list of consistently profitable backtested forex systems available anywhere? Results that show profitability over say the last 10 years or more.

Thanks.
Hi Jason,

I am exactly at your position back in few years and always looking for a proven backtested forex system that could give a consistent profits over at least pass 10 years. Also looking for system which is mechanical (do not need to think and analyze) and require less trading time.

FINALLY I did found it ! called "SimplePips System". But unfortunately it is a paid system , not available for free.

I decided to give it a try since this is exactly system that I've been looking for many years. I bought it and backtested the system manually by myself for few weeks, and true enough my backtested results are the same with the results published.
Bow have been LIVE trading this system for almost one year and so far am happy with the results. The best part is I only spend one-minute a day to monitor via Ipad MT4 app The not so good part is a bit boring as more free time for me now

Hope this is what you looking for too!

My forex trading journey http://www101forexcurrencytrading.com/
  • #16
  • Nov 18, 2012 8:53am Nov 18, 2012 8:53am
Guys, how do you backtest your strategies?
  • #17
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:06am Nov 18, 2012 9:06am
Quoting jasonnevis
I guess the whole backtesting sector just want you to buy their software, datafeeds and spend huge amounts of time discovering the discovered.
Very cynical, but let's for a moment accept that your view is correct - that the best way of making money is getting people to spend on backtesting software. If that's correct then you're better off developing some software to cater for this market. It's the road to riches!

However, if some of the people using that backtesting software create systems that work very well for them what would they rather do - continue doing what works or get into creating backtesting software?

You're talking two different groups with very little intersection. Successful creators of backtesting software are good at creating backtesting software. Successful traders are good at trading.

Decide which group you want to be in. If it's the latter, you don't get there via a list of strategies others have backtested. That is particularly true if you're looking for mechanical systems that don't involve the use of the trader's own biases and interpretations.
  • #18
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:13am Nov 18, 2012 9:13am
Quoting metroman
Guys, how do you backtest your strategies?
Metroman,

I manually backtested the system using MT4 platform.
Considering the system's straight forward entry, take profit or stop loss; and using Daily chart only (giving about 2 to 15 trades a month) it can be easily backtested using MT4. (remember to add in the spreads also when backtesting).
  • #19
  • Nov 18, 2012 9:35am Nov 18, 2012 9:35am
Quoting aeron_1025
Metroman,

I manually backtested the system using MT4 platform.
Considering the system's straight forward entry, take profit or stop loss; and using Daily chart only (giving about 2 to 15 trades a month) it can be easily backtested using MT4. (remember to add in the spreads also when backtesting).
Thank you for your reply! what tools do you use with MetaTrader for backtesting? as far as I know MT4 does not allow manual backtesting so you have to use some 3rd party additions. I've published the information about one great backtesting tool here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=395857
Please review it and post your comments if you like or dislike it.
  • #20
  • Nov 18, 2012 4:23pm Nov 18, 2012 4:23pm
MT4 does has the historical data of candlesticks chart from year 2003 until now for daily chart on any DEMO or LIVE account of any brokers.
Have been using this FREE resource for manual backtesting on different manual forex systems for passed 3 years.
There is also strategy tester in MT4 platform if you would like to backtest the forex EA.
0 traders viewing now