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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #14,561
  • Edited 12:27pm Nov 17, 2012 12:27pm | Edited 12:27pm
Quoting Vantage
Mmmmh sorry this has been bugging me so back onto Xhales question why did the first 2 pin bars fail v the 3rd working. The consensus answer the test of 200 ema made 3rd pin work. That doesn't address why the 1st 2 failed. There are numerous trades where people have posted test of 10 ema as reason for trade. The failed pins both re-test the 10 ema.

So I'll (stubbornly perhaps) come back to my original comment. Take great care with 3rd entry/lower high in London morning session. The successful pin was the first retrace and move in US session....
I think 1st and 2nd failed because as you can see price touched 21 EMA in H4.Very strong Support which Phillip Nel system is based on that.
So price bounced of 21 ema and then after US opening headed down again and broke it.

Just my view!
Mike
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Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #14,562
  • Edited 4:15pm Nov 17, 2012 12:59pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting aryary
Further to Xhale12's post



In my view this retest creates the high probaility trades. Take note that the 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema. So essentially its the 15min break of 200ema, close below, retest of the 200ema and then carry on in the direction of the break. Of course all other factors have to line up for the trade setup - this is just a filter giving better confirmation.

(Note - the tan box at the end on the euro chart is Xhale12's example question)

Why my 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema are not in same spot? I checked several time, all my settings. Please let me know if my chart looks wrong. Thank you

EDIT: statement 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema is wrong or i don't understand something
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  • #14,563
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:09pm Nov 17, 2012 1:09pm
Quoting loveevery1
Brother Metalman....Most of the folks here know that its not to YOU...i will die before i hurt someone.Just not words brother."What i think is what i speak what i speak is what i do.""" That was to the folks thinking who cares if they get invited or not....Remember english is not my mother tongue.


My reason for sharing till this second is to make everyone a profitable trader.And if the rules are followed exactly the way it was told.we cant fail in this industry.I'm against folks who are self centered...money minded most of all....deceiving...



Dear Arjun

I am delighted to see this quick & clear reply.

Yes I will start posting trades but I need to learn how. I will learn it as I have a pdf showing how to post charts.

Thanks & regds

Metalman
FIGHT TILL FINISH
  • #14,564
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:40pm Nov 17, 2012 1:40pm
Quoting Arunaz
Helllo boys and girls,

attaching my today EU trades. Both were taken after first signal (without waiting for retest).
retest is a biggest headache for me... Because in many cases when I'am waiting for retest after first signal it just moves on like a bullet (second picture) and it's to late to take a trade, or needs to set very large SL....
Any tips?

Thank you in advance,
Arunas

zander2034 has shown you the way you should have looked at the trade on the second chart.
However, I just want to add my little LOVEBEES idea to the first chart.

Your entry candle is not a perfect rejection of 200ema. It is still a blue candle. Though it work but you came out of the trade in panic.

Explaination is on the chart.

It is always good to take the trade around 10ema. It is also good to spot early entry but with confirmation and the LOGIC (Rhythm of the market)

I will like to have comment from the senior please as I am also learning day by day.
Attached Image
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN GOOD AND EXCELLENT IS ATTENTION TO DETAILS.
  • #14,565
  • Nov 17, 2012 1:45pm Nov 17, 2012 1:45pm
Quoting Metalman
Dear Arjun

I am delighted to see this quick & clear reply.

Yes I will start posting trades but I need to learn how. I will learn it as I have a pdf showing how to post charts.

Thanks & regds

Metalman
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=106470 From this I learn how to post a chart! I hope this will help you!
  • #14,566
  • Nov 17, 2012 2:07pm Nov 17, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting Xhale12
Here's my lousy attempt at "homework" for the weekend. Wait for Emmanuel to post the good stuff lol.

Why did the first two pins fail (red arrows), and why did the 3rd pin (black arrow) succeed? Use htf's in your reasoning.
After seeing a number of responses I'd offer my take on your homework assignment. My view is twofold:
1) I still use TDI for confirmation and it did not confirm until the 3rd marked candle on the 15min TF.
2) moving up to the H1 time frame - the first two candles are well below the 10EMA and the 3rd is a pin bar PB from both 10 & 50 EMA.
Unfortunately I was not online at the time and missed it anyway, but thanks for the question as it forces some review and thought process.
Dmost
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  • #14,567
  • Nov 17, 2012 2:07pm Nov 17, 2012 2:07pm
Quoting Xhale12
Here's my lousy attempt at "homework" for the weekend. Wait for Emmanuel to post the good stuff lol.

Why did the first two pins fail (red arrows), and why did the 3rd pin (black arrow) succeed? Use htf's in your reasoning.
My newbie view is that bars 1 and 2 are not valid set ups due to HTF (specifically 1hr)

All the candles tested the 10 ema on the 15min there is no arguing that fact

The third candle was a valid trade due to the fact that it bounced off the 10ema on the 15 min but this was only the entry point and not the reason we should have taken the trade. The fact that that the 1 hr candle had just closed which also bounced off the 10ema on that TF is the reason we were looking to go short. The 4hr chart may have shown this to be clear at the time but not as much now.

We should have noticed that there was a retest of the 10ema on the 1hr and then waited for a set up to enter on the 15 min which came 2 candles later in the form of a pin bar which retested the 15 min 10 ema which is candle 3 on the chart

crtcism encouraged
zander
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  • #14,568
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:55pm Nov 17, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting mike1349
I think 1st and 2nd failed because as you can see price touched 21 EMA in H4.Very strong Support which Phillip Nel system is based on that.
So price bounced of 21 ema and then after US opening headed down again and broke it.

Just my view!
Mike

Hi Mike,

I am new to Forex................less than 1 year. Just wondering WHY must price RESPECT 21EMA in H4 ? Is there any links or study to proof the 21EMA govern price.

Sorry for my stupid LOVEBEES question....because what I learn from LOVEEVERY1 Thread and his SIMPLE Method using PRICE ACTION couples with 10EMA, 50EMA, 200EMA, 800EMA only to guide us in trading.


This is my dumb observation only............I always got everything mixed up..... " I used EMAs for guide.....but you're using it as RULES..... I think I'm doing it opposite than what you're doing?..............lol "


I use EMAs as guide only..... not RULES.....

Quoting Gibril
This picture was taken from internet. Not mine.

I was at the famous pedestrian crossing yesterday in Shibuya

I observe those crosswalks are more of guidelines than actual rules... (same in trading)



giBril The LoVEBees


Maybe this Post will help us to learn somethin NEW today.......... Because I want to learn to. Both of this Post are from GreatMan. Even the Second Post is to teach us " HOW TO SEE CHART "


QUOTE

" Posted by PAT CHIKO................. Post # 3,780 ( Valuable Post to read)


Pull back


The above was a temporary halt in the down trend. With this type of pattern, the movement often need to breath and that's why a pullback on the down trend.


This pause in the upward or downward movement of the price is a signature characteristic of financial markets, which underlines a very important fact:

" the prevailing trend will not continue forever. The market is always pulsating and moving in what some have called “waves.”

This is only a temporary departure from the down trend.

Maybe looking at HTF Chart will help you to understand the "Prevailing Trend" first, before taking trades at 15M TF. Note here, Price is below 200EMA, always look for Short trades. I attached 240M, 60M & 15M Chart for you to look and get the feel as we trade price action at support and resistance, along with the direction from the HTF, guides us in our trades

Practice the Basic Set up first, before venturing into CT, Bounce Trade of RN, ADR revesal et cetera..... You will become more confident taking The Basic Set Up than other complicated ways others practice.

I believe, the BEST METHOD here is still the Basic Set Up for who are new to Forex." UNQUOTE






QUOTE

"Posted by LOVEEVERY1................. Post 6,582( How to see the chart???? A short but very informative...plz read it 2 times minumum...)
ARJUNA SAID THAT HE SEES ONLY THE BIRD's EYES....AND NOTHING ELSE....( no tree/no left branch/no green color/no jumping/) only the eyes.

Arjuna’s strength lay in his extraordinary levels of concentration " UNQUOTE



My Chart attached for you to comment.( oohhh.. the Fib is one of the Confluent agent) This is how I see, learning it from this thread. ( there's no 21EMA there)

Don't get offended.... Im just putting my view ( usually it's wrong...because i'm dumb). Hope to learn from you and other traders here.

Thank You

Sincerely


gIbRiL

P/S My English is half broken and can mislead everyone here on my true intention. Thousand apology.
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  • #14,569
  • Nov 17, 2012 6:12pm Nov 17, 2012 6:12pm
Hello Gibril,

For more info go here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=14630

Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #14,570
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:09pm Nov 17, 2012 8:09pm
Quoting lehin
Why my 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema are not in same spot? I checked several time, all my settings. Please let me know if my chart looks wrong. Thank you

EDIT: statement 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema is wrong or i don't understand something
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353178618


hi lehin,

Your charts with the posted indicators looks perfectly correct as it is.
Is is not a precision thing that we must see on our charts and be overly concern with. The key is to read the Price Action using the candles or bar.

Why must the H4 10EMA be the same as M15 200EMA?

Use Triple Screen (M15, H1 and H4) and you will appreciate the fact of the 10EMA in each of its corresponding Timeframe.
You can also read off the 10EMA value in the MT4 DataWindow in each TF. This would be the precision engineer way to do things.

Hope this help you understand better.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #14,571
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:37pm Nov 17, 2012 8:37pm
Quoting lehin
Why my 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema are not in same spot? I checked several time, all my settings. Please let me know if my chart looks wrong. Thank you

EDIT: statement 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema is wrong or i don't understand something
Dear lehin,
I hope the following quotes/posts will help:

Quoting IamTHAT
I am confused. 10EMA on H1 == 40EMA on M15 as H1 == M15 x 4, or is there any other formula?
Quoting stevepatt
Hi IamThat,

You are right but but using the 50/200 and 800 EMAs gets close enough to reproducing the 10 EMAS.
Quoting tango-1
Mate.. forex is not sience theory... all calculation here is based on approximate, not ecxact.. based on psicological approach, not pure logical.. therefore, experience traders said that trading is 80% psicology...

why 10 EMA @ H1 = 50 EMA @ M15, not 40 EMA?
because 50 is round number.. round number is a psicological level..
if you pay attention more, there is no big diferent betwen 50 EMA and 40 EMA..

I dont know is my answer true or not.. I hope some PRO here give comment about it... I'm an under training person, not yet pro..

thanks...

tango...
Accept as it is being!
  • #14,572
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:48pm Nov 17, 2012 8:48pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1353178618


hi lehin,

Your charts with the posted indicators looks perfectly correct as it is.
Is is not a precision thing that we must see on our charts and be overly concern with. The key is to read the Price Action using the candles or bar.

Why must the H4 10EMA be the same as M15 200EMA?

Use Triple Screen (M15, H1 and H4) and you will appreciate the...

I was following Aryary post and initial Xhale12 question about fake candles... Aryary said that 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema, maybe I didn't understand exactly meaning behind it, but i checked it on my charts and found its not true. I mean when we say it matches. you can draw a line and switch TF and line is gonna be exact on those emas.

Well as a new to FX, I'd like to filter as much false info as possible.. and I found that my standard MT4 200EMA on 15mins chart is a little off sometimes. I see other ppl posts and charts and i see candle test their 200 ema, but on my chart that candle get close but doesn't cross it. How to interpret such thing on my end?
  • #14,573
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:49pm Nov 17, 2012 8:49pm
Quoting newride
Dear Brother,
I am a new trader and still going through the thread . I read from the begining and the recent posts too. I recently have discovered that this thread is going private/or teaching will only be for loved ones(friends). The new method will be restricted to the loved ones.

If you train the people who are already experts , how will the newbie like us learn.
Please remember there will be people who will try to bring you down or try to hurt you, You can make a difference by being a bigger human being and forgiving them too and even...
Brother....Newride....GOD bless you....I never said i will stop posting in the forum....lol....Whoever i have in my list now..Would have helped lot of folks here in this thread.Ofcourse whoever contributes and help others will be added to the list everytime...when the list needs to be assisted...Lol....
Brother whoever posts will be added.If you folks see,right from the start.....I have been discussing only 15mn chart and i always used the HTF as guidance and i never discussed holding on to trades.I never talked about when to exit a trade...i mean i never talked about exit rules....i always said take a quick profit.I have exited a 100 pips trade with just 10 pips....I will be discussing in depth with exact rules and entries for HTF traders.The candles that made me the person i am today will help all the needy.Folks please dont think that i dont LOVE others....You should understand why i'm typing all this.folks.

The Things im going to discuss is not for newbies...It requires little bigger stop but BIG pips....lol...But whatever i have been discussing here is enough for all the newbies to start with....Increase your account with small profits and gain confidence....then play with your profits.....later.So by doing this you wont get burnt...

Stay blessed.

Note : emmanuel7788

Learn whatever you could from this brother of mine....Wonderful trader and a great human being....stay blessed brother.you are already blesssed for whatever you are doing.
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #14,574
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:03pm Nov 17, 2012 9:03pm
Quoting Vnfx
Dear lehin,
I hope the following quotes/posts will help:

Thank you Vnfx. Although my brain starts asking more questions... lol I'll keep watching 10, 200, 800 emas.
  • #14,575
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:31pm Nov 17, 2012 9:31pm
Quoting Gibril
Hi Mike,

I am new to Forex................less than 1 year. Just wondering WHY must price RESPECT 21EMA in H4 ? Is there any links or study to proof the 21EMA govern price.

Sorry for my stupid LOVEBEES question....because what I learn from LOVEEVERY1 Thread and his SIMPLE Method using PRICE ACTION couples with 10EMA, 50EMA, 200EMA, 800EMA only to guide us in trading.


This is my dumb observation only............I always got everything mixed up..... " I used EMAs for guide.....but you're...
Folks....I dont need to explain anything more about my brother....

Read his words again.The first 2 lines shows his humbleness and see the other 2 lines...why is he asking questions and what exctly he means....he is asking question and giving the answer aswell....dont you guys think ?

Lines 3 is a question and line 4 is the answer to the question 3....

He uses the word GUIDE....it is indeed a guide....folks....

Watch his words...
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Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #14,576
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:36pm Nov 17, 2012 9:36pm
Quoting lehin
I was following Aryary post and initial Xhale12 question about fake candles... Aryary said that 4hr 10ema = 15min 200ema, maybe I didn't understand exactly meaning behind it, but i checked it on my charts and found its not true. I mean when we say it matches. you can draw a line and switch TF and line is gonna be exact on those emas.

Well as a new to FX, I'd like to filter as much false info as possible.. and I found that my standard MT4 200EMA on 15mins chart is a little off sometimes. I see other ppl posts and charts and i see candle test...
lehin bro, I had the same confusion before. I'm an computer engineer, so I want to be precision. lol. Indicators, EMA, TL, S&R, I always manage to draw them at the precision point. In the end I mess up all.
Finally I find out what this words means "trading is not science". TL or S&R is not a single line, its an area. No matter what EMAs, they are all be used to feel the market rhythm. No need to research the difference between 40ema and 50ema or 50ema and H1 10ema. Like Arjun said, just stick to the system.

Just my newbie thought, if I am wrong please tell me and I'll delete the post.
Find your edge, make your system, stick to it.
  • #14,577
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:38pm Nov 17, 2012 9:38pm
Quoting mike1349
I think 1st and 2nd failed because as you can see price touched 21 EMA in H4.Very strong Support which Phillip Nel system is based on that.
So price bounced of 21 ema and then after US opening headed down again and broke it.

Just my view!
Mike
Brother Mike....Welcome to the thread.we dont discuss any other emas here other than the emas listed...Please contribute and help others with the emas listed here....stay blessed....
Let all the living things live blissfully
  • #14,578
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:39pm Nov 17, 2012 9:39pm
Quoting loveevery1
Brother....Newride....GOD bless you....I never said i will stop posting in the forum....lol....Whoever i have in my list now..Would have helped lot of folks here in this thread.Ofcourse whoever contributes and help others will be added to the list everytime...when the list needs to be assisted...Lol....
Brother whoever posts will be added.If you folks see,right from the start.....I have been discussing only 15mn chart and i always used the HTF as guidance and i never discussed holding on to trades.I never talked about when to exit a trade...i mean...
Good morning, Mr Arjun (or may be Good Afternoon on your time zone now). Glad to see U here this morning. I never say thank you to you personally for making this thread.

I got your point about the invitation list, Sir! It is like in "Pay It Forward" movie

To the newbies (including me, of course, LOL), don't worry, Mr Arjun knows exactly what he's doing. Don't get worry that you're all left behind because you're not in the list. Your time will come. Watch that movie if you all don't get what I mean (LOL... I like to watch movie while I'm in trading, it could put my bad psychological aside)

Just stay focus to learn every valuable informations in this thread. Me myself, even just now is still making a small notes about "3 Powerful Forex Price Pattern" from its pdf file, so I can bring it in my pocket everytime. Glad to find that PDF from Mr Emmanuel's post recently, if not, I don't know how many weeks will be needed to take to where the PDF file location is (It's on 603 page, while my reading on this thread still on page 153..LOL)

BTW, to Mr Arjun, actually I'm holding myself to stay quite and not to response about your post recently. But today is sunday, market is not moving so it could be the right time to talk about it. About the vote, it is beyond my thinking that "Yes" or "No" in the vote will be considered being Positive or Negative. But I think that would be fair if you ask to the voter, "Why?"

For myself, my reason was, I've seen so many good threads here in FF that after decided to move on to private website, they just didn't go "nowhere", and the most bad ending, ever happen they "fought" each other and everyone made their own website. This was the time of the greed "eat" human sense and turn them into "inhuman" being in this market.
I will not mention those threads here but I will PM if needed. This thread is really just great and "very warm" on the first hundred pages of it. It is a home to those who wants to learn to be profitable in Forex. I love it and will always read and learn from this thread. So, Please apologize my vote if that hurt you. But it never mean to hurt you from its start. How could I hurt someone who helped me a lot by all his writing? Even on my wildest dream I would not do it.

But as I said above, I got your point Sir about the invitation matter! Everyone who ever watched 'Pay it Forward" will understand why you invite only some, and not everyone, and why those who are invited must be the ones who love to teach other! You're really is a smart people Sir! Very nice methodology to spread information and to help others! I wish every success for you and your family in the future! God Bless you Mr Arjun!
  • #14,579
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:44pm Nov 17, 2012 9:44pm
Quoting long_bow
lehin bro, I had the same confusion before. I'm an computer engineer, so I want to be precision. lol. Indicators, EMA, TL, S&R, I always manage to draw them at the precision point. In the end I mess up all.
Finally I find out what this words means "trading is not science". TL or S&R is not a single line, its an area. No matter what EMAs, they are all be used to feel the market rhythm. No need to research the difference between 40ema and 50ema or 50ema and H1 10ema. Like Arjun said, just stick to the system.

Just my newbie thought, if I am wrong...
I'm learning a lot today! Thank you long_bow
  • #14,580
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:46pm Nov 17, 2012 9:46pm
Did you wonder what happened to brother x-man....One of the greatest contributors to this thread !!!
Did anybody even think about him ?

GOD bless him....lol

Brother x-man whereever you are please help us with whatever you can...thanks in advance...
Let all the living things live blissfully
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