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Identifying Manipulation

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 12, 2012 10:02am Nov 12, 2012 10:02am
Hi,

I understand the MM make frequent fake outs commonly known as the Frankie fake out between 2-5am EST however how can we identify this? Take today EU move is this manipulation before the true move?
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  • #2
  • Nov 16, 2012 6:18am Nov 16, 2012 6:18am
Manipulation? It is thrown about these forums when an understanding of the markets and its structure is not known.

How about opportunity? This is what I call it.
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  • #3
  • Edited 12:29pm Nov 16, 2012 12:02pm | Edited 12:29pm
Still on demo,
only this calls for technical chart drawing:

Quoting Pipanator
Hi,

I understand the MM make frequent fake outs commonly known as the Frankie fake out between 2-5am EST however how can we identify this? Take today EU move is this manipulation before the true move?

  1. s/r (candlework ("weak","strong") detail; confirm, opposing-strength pairs of engulfing candles) set temporary x axis
  2. left-vert-right area angles ("settle","momo") set temporary y axis
  3. grid pattern -- quarter rule (in a grid, if lots of halves appear and a bit of momo with only a quarter then happens, a turn is likely) I figured on my own discretionarily, applies three times, this speed following the momo, establishing xy direction


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Click to Enlarge Name: eu pipinator -- loose interp.jpg Size: 163 KB


I didn't even resort to my typical patterns ; ), for more forward-looking clarity.


Your sessional "fake out" idea is interesting though, like weekend-gap retraces or something.
  • #4
  • Nov 16, 2012 2:47pm Nov 16, 2012 2:47pm
Quoting Pipanator
Hi,

I understand the MM make frequent fake outs commonly known as the Frankie fake out between 2-5am EST however how can we identify this? Take today EU move is this manipulation before the true move?
Very simple, The market is driven by supply and demand, just look left.

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Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 106 KB
  • #5
  • Nov 16, 2012 3:02pm Nov 16, 2012 3:02pm
Quoting fosking
Very simple, The market is driven by supply and demand, just look left.

Attachment
A chart can sometimes be worth a thousand words.
  • #6
  • Nov 16, 2012 5:09pm Nov 16, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting Pipanator
Hi,

I understand the MM make frequent fake outs commonly known as the Frankie fake out between 2-5am EST however how can we identify this? Take today EU move is this manipulation before the true move?
not with a single chart.

You need to need to know whats the driving force (sentiment) behind the major move.

When market moves against the prevailing sentiment you again have to find out the reasons behind it.

If the reason/events/news etc are temporary and you feel the market WILL again continue its major move/trend.

Rest is managing your entry, stops and exits.
.
  • #7
  • Nov 16, 2012 6:01pm Nov 16, 2012 6:01pm
Quoting nasir.khan
not with a single chart.

You need to need to know whats the driving force (sentiment) behind the major move.

When market moves against the prevailing sentiment you again have to find out the reasons behind it.

If the reason/events/news etc are temporary and you feel the market WILL again continue its major move/trend.
.
Question ? If we wait to find out all these things is it opportunity lost? Is it better to wait and find reason or to simply trade the method to which you have become accustomed ?
idk
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #8
  • Nov 16, 2012 6:15pm Nov 16, 2012 6:15pm
Quoting Pipanator
Hi,

is this manipulation before the true move?
Can you define "manipulation" versus "the usual" market?
I noticed a year or so ago that certain brokers might have a spike that didn't appear with other brokers (around 3PM EST)

Said broker(s) took steps to alleviate that problem (maybe due to low liquidity and HFT's) and it seems to have been resolved.

There's always a conspiracy theory somewhere. If it's true you have to deal with it. If it isn't true you have to deal with it. 'eh?
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #9
  • Nov 16, 2012 8:44pm Nov 16, 2012 8:44pm
Thanks for the input guys, however is their any way to know at that time when opportunity is coming if its authentic or false? Is that literally the risk you take? Could high/low volume be used any time based system to know that is a false or true move?
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  • #10
  • Nov 17, 2012 7:36am Nov 17, 2012 7:36am
Quoting Slim Buffett
Question ? If we wait to find out all these things is it opportunity lost? Is it better to wait and find reason or to simply trade the method to which you have become accustomed ?
idk
There is no such thing as waiting. Amount of time spent on making the decision to pull the trigger or not is dependent upon your experience and you confidence in your methods/edge.

it takes from 10 seconds to 10 mins to find out whats moving the market. IFR and Fxlive are doing it for you all day long (4 free). You just need to keep a tab on them while monitoring the markets.

Do this for 6-9 months and you should be able to identify opps that could get you in 70-200 pip moves atleast once a week*.

* of course you must have a good knowledge of fundamentals and how they effect the market in the "short term" + atleast a basic understanding of market microstructure.
.
  • #11
  • Nov 17, 2012 8:14am Nov 17, 2012 8:14am
Quoting Slim Buffett
Can you define "manipulation" versus "the usual" market?
I noticed a year or so ago that certain brokers might have a spike that didn't appear with other brokers (around 3PM EST)

Said broker(s) took steps to alleviate that problem (maybe due to low liquidity and HFT's) and it seems to have been resolved.

There's always a conspiracy theory somewhere. If it's true you have to deal with it. If it isn't true you have to deal with it. 'eh?
was it just a widening of the spread or both ask/bid spiked together?
.
  • #12
  • Nov 17, 2012 9:54am Nov 17, 2012 9:54am
Nasir are they any genuine teachers of market micro structure or sticking your head into books the only way to learn it?
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  • #13
  • Nov 17, 2012 2:06pm Nov 17, 2012 2:06pm
Banks know exactly where the overall open interest is. That's their bread and butter and what they're gunning for.
By luring traders into these "false" moves they profit twice when reversing: crushing into open interest and liquidating stops.
That happens a lot in the Tier II market with similar (exotic) products.
Also news and sentiment are often absued for these kind of actions.
  • #14
  • Nov 17, 2012 2:33pm Nov 17, 2012 2:33pm
Quoting nasir.khan
was it just a widening of the spread or both ask/bid spiked together?
.
No, it seemed to be some sort of "real" manipulation. The broker actually refunded my money for a trade gone wild (amazingly enough). The same spike did not appear on any other broker to my knowledge.

BTW... I had the time wrong. It would be 5PM EST and the broker now suspends trading for 3 minutes at the top of the hour. As stated, this seems to have fixed the problem.

(strange but true)
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #15
  • Edited 3:25pm Nov 17, 2012 2:41pm | Edited 3:25pm
Quoting xtsunami
Manipulation? It is thrown about these forums when an understanding of the markets and its structure is not known.

How about opportunity? This is what I call it.
I completely agree with this 100%. Opportunity comes in many forms and opportunity has just gotten bigger when there are multiple variables pointing into one direction. Perhaps there was a fib level around, longer term TL, all in confluence with that supply/resistance area.
  • #16
  • Nov 17, 2012 3:29pm Nov 17, 2012 3:29pm
Here's an interesting article about broker/MT4 manipulation and if you continue
to have these problems, you should find a new broker.

ASAP

You may notice that Gain Capital was "guilty" but FXCM and others don't fair much better
(via too much reading)
Some (most?) of the problems have been resolved but .... be aware

http://4xtrader.net/forex-market-man...ow-to-spot-it/
When the Joker is in the deck.. fear not and play it well
  • #17
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:32pm Nov 17, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting Pipanator
Nasir are they any genuine teachers of market micro structure or sticking your head into books the only way to learn it?
No one will/can teach you market micro structure. Only way is to read books and free research papers floating around the web.

November and December is my favourite time of the year to get back to some serious R&D.
.
  • #18
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:35pm Nov 17, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting Slim Buffett
No, it seemed to be some sort of "real" manipulation. The broker actually refunded my money for a trade gone wild (amazingly enough). The same spike did not appear on any other broker to my knowledge.

BTW... I had the time wrong. It would be 5PM EST and the broker now suspends trading for 3 minutes at the top of the hour. As stated, this seems to have fixed the problem.

(strange but true)
how much did it usually moved like, i mean what was difference from other brokers feed? (in pips)

Yeah i figured your were cause its the rollover time and almost all the mt4 brokers freeze up for some mins at that time anyway.
.
  • #19
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:39pm Nov 17, 2012 4:39pm
[quote=nasir.khan;6205484]No one will/can teach you market micro structure. Only way is to read books and free research papers floating around the web.

Could you please define, market micro structure? And as to how this knowledge will impact on any trading methodology?
thanks
  • #20
  • Nov 17, 2012 4:55pm Nov 17, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting jazzman
Could you please define, market micro structure? And as to how this knowledge will impact on any trading methodology?
thanks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_microstructure

As to the second part of your question,

thats for the individual to find out for himself. i know like a dozen other traders on this forum who learnt from same people that i did and read the same literature that i did but we dont know the exact details of each others trading methods cause all of us had to branch out at one stage of maturity to discover our own paths.
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