Australian Bear Raid

be careful with interpreting data.

for some reason reserve bank wants strong AUD. Unemployment and defaults and propery prices are devastating in parts of AU, but this is the case for several years now.

I folow closels certain holiday propery markets and they are down 70% or so. See property prices index. Dont follow it but imagine down maybe 2.01 % ?!

Note that propery index is based on sale prices. Also AU tax system supports renovations. So, if sale price goes up 100%, it is quite possible that the whole 'appreciation' is due to renovations.

true appreciation is around 3.5%.

We get a close on Hourly below this confluence fib, I am going short the minute of the next hourly. Target at 1.0330 SL: 1.0425

Macroman,

I am starting to agree with that premise it seems like the high rate and yield will continue to foster foreign investment and they know once they start pulling out it would see a cascade effect. Looking at the sheets I see what your saying on housing and I have read many ppl who show facts that Australians are ahead of mortgage payments so the question I have is will they start to internally do what Americans did and consume more with saving draining out and then another crash comes they are not ready?

i dont believe majority of people in au are ahead of payments because expenses are large - in cities. Here you have resources on one side and large cities on the other that have to generate some puff to exist. That puff has been chosen to be property & immigration (same as uk model). If by any chance someone gets extra cash, simply buys another property with large loan so they making loss (!!) but expect to double in 7-10 years, of course. That is in the culture or so banks want to tell anyone . This comes from property bull market starting around '60, so now 50 yrs old. Ask anyone in AU and you will get same answer about property. However, people are forgetting 2 decades before that when there were 3rd world diseases and deaths in the cities, overflow of '29. Info is very scarce about it so i had to patch it together. So, agree with your thesis - perfectly correct, this is coming again. Tricky bit is when . Reagarding spending.... I think it is slowly coming back from brink, and will possibly with some stimulus help generate extra puff for cities. People will buy from increased property equity.

Note detail that there is not much free cash except in vaults of large au companies. so large aud overvaluation is possible.

I work for a small civil construction firm in Alice Springs, Central Australia. We have great trouble getting workers because the mines around the coast pay huge wages, but that seems to have changed this last week. Suddenly we are getting applicants from the mining areas, just looking for work at any wage. It seems the iron ore mines in WA are now putting off workers.

Work in this area has also slowed greatly. Government contracts have just about dried up, and there is very little private work around.

We keep in touch with people in similar work around the country, and the picture is not good. One major firm is bidding jobs below cost, just to keep their work force together.

JP,
are you still on sideline?
interested to know your thoughts..

Have you read about this, JP?

I have not that is a really cool article FOR tech but bad for labor.

I have been long since Friday closed sunday London open Now on the sidelines. Looking for a minor retrace but given the ES is at a reversal point at least for this week I will be more long biased and buy some minor dips. However looking already to DEC for a rate cut it is very interesting how 1.04 looks to be the price of settlement on spot going into Yr end. I have heard many analyst ect talking 1.02 by mid feb and downward from there the most pessimistic analyst (Citi) is looking at .95

Here is another round of layoffs for Australia
wo 737 jets have landed at the airport in Wabush, and a third 737 is on its way, to pick up construction workers who have been laid off from the Bloom Lake iron ore mine near Fermont, Quebec. Wabush, just across the border from Fermont, has the closest airport to Bloom Lake.
Cliffs Natural Resources, the mine's owner, said earlier today it would have to idle its mine expansion in Bloom Lake, as a result of weak iron ore prices.
Iron ore prices plummeted by 30 per cent this past August, due to a drop in demand in China.
The company, which is the largest producer of iron ore pellets in the United States, has also shut down production at its mines in Minnesota and Michigan.
Yellow buses have been seen dropping construction workers off at a private hangar at the Wabush airport, where they are then boarding the jets.
Each jet can hold about 150 passengers.

If aud looks to continue this tight range going into year end I would be more apt to selling at the high of the confluence fib wall at 1.0330-45 and let it test the 'main layers' at 1.0388-1.0368 and make its way down to the buying area for a channel weekly play for the rest of this year. Unless we get a rate cut or we go off the cliff, or some other 'unknown comes into the market I will sell at the top and buy near the bottom as indicated.

Daily and maybe weekly closes need to occur above/below this channel for perceptions and vol to pick back up.

There is still much downside for the dollar at least a test of the ascending trendline since the bottom. If that breaks than the YTD HI.LO 618% comes into focus

"another round of layoffs for Australia" but the references to Fermont, Quebec & Wabush are Canadian.....
Am also surprised at your references to prices in the 1.03s (in your other post) but I'm guessing they are futures levels not spot.

Ha just caught that sorry about that I did mention futures

It seems like there is a change in the air for a multi month run up in stocks if this indicator of Copper follows though on this bottom

my rally watch:
shanghai cannot penetrate 2000 so far although no decisive up move yet. US frontman said that china is as responsible for global economy as US. So if they dont let it go below 2000, it will go up
USDSGD on daily finally break t/l and resulting move could easily be multimonth 1 way street coinciding with stocks up.
edit: how could i forget NIKKEI rally this week! Looks like NIKKEI will be the leader if this turns in bull market. AUDJPY at around average price over last 15 years. Too expensive ? Really ? I believe Japan buys 25% of au resources slightly behind china.


although i have no position at present.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...5260&page=3785

Hey JP, I'm not trying to stir the pot - well, mabye - but did you get a AFR today? My post on the AUDUSD thread. Like to hear your opinion.

Long or short now?

I agree with the Author that the AUD will tumble badly one day in the not so distant future. I'm a Victorian and apart from a company shutting down every second week, another private school was announced to shut down this year today, the 3rd for the year.

I went to the cinemas today to be totally shocked by the fact that the ticketing booth was closed and one staff girl was selling tickets from the cafeteria as well as doing the popcorn and drinks.

This is from a company ( Village ) who would always have at least 2 staff on each job. Supermarkets are replacing humans with auto check outs, bank branches are in decline, it's all very sad for our children's future.

Surprisingly the economic numbers always come out very good but I don't know how. Wages have been flat for many years while real estate and utility bills have gone through the roof.

I can't see the economy sustaining this despite the mining boon. I mean mine's a very small part of real Australia. Unless you live in WA you will probably never see one in your life time.

Alas the currency keeps going up but we all that is only because it pays handsome interest to hold and while retail short in masses it will always continue to go up.

Right now short AUD/USD spot at 78 and 73 trying to ease in I will start up with futures again once we show some LH LL patterns. Otherwise right now shorting AUD/USD and swinging A/J long here and there. I will post here once more once I get a grasp again on position trading Here is what I am watching

as a possible reversal

on AUD here based on ABC retrace its void if we break above the sell zone. I have an unease still about Dollar continuing from last week as 618% YTD is now acting as resistance if it continues heavy AUD will breach 1.05. Hoping for more follow through today on Fiscal breakdown as ES is failing multiple times to break above yesterdays close these last several hours

of course i WOULD love to be short at this level with a cut in dec it will be a great entry but we will see what happens

Hello DR. no i did not see it can you plz link. I appreciate and more than welcome ppl from Australia and longs giving their point of view it makes me think more and find holes in my thesis which were pointed out to me a month ago on PMI's ticking north

I am always grateful to others who share wisdom and I hope I can give back here and there