Is this the reason why you don't want to share your Holy Grail? | Page 2 | Forex Factory

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Is this the reason why you don't want to share your Holy Grail?

  • #21
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:44pm Nov 13, 2012 7:44pm
Kinda surprised no one mentioned this but there have been successful EA's in the past that were sold and deemed to be successful and after so many people were using them the Brokers would start employing various rules to thwart them.

Like for example if a successful EA set orders everyday at daily open based on various criteria. If even a few dozen people were clocking a broker every day for so many pips per trader, the broker isn't going to just sit there and let that happen.

Now if the EA loses, you won't have no worries... trade it as long as you want the broker will do nothing to stop your stupidity.
  • #22
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:51pm Nov 13, 2012 7:51pm
Quoting pip_seeker
Kinda surprised no one mentioned this but there have been successful EA's in the past that were sold and deemed to be successful and after so many people were using them the Brokers would start employing various rules to thwart them.

Like for example if a successful EA set orders everyday at daily open based on various criteria. If even a few dozen people were clocking a broker every day for so many pips per trader, the broker isn't going to just sit there and let that happen.

[size=3]Now...
Why would the creator of a working EA sell it when he can trade himself to unfathomable wealth instead and not have to deal with customer's questions or complaints?

Also, the broker is an outlet to the market and not the market itself.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #23
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:58pm Nov 13, 2012 7:58pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Why would the creator of a working EA sell it when he can trade himself to unfathomable wealth instead and not have to deal with customer's questions or complaints?

Also, the broker is an outlet to the market and not the market itself.
haha nice one, anyway most ea that sold online are either modified by the creator himself to give a not real product of his own, or stolen from others and modified. Everything we see are just marketing campaign selling beautiful stories and dream. haven't seen a forex ea maker/trader a listed billionaire yet either.
  • #24
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:05pm Nov 13, 2012 8:05pm
Quoting 5percent
haha nice one, anyway most ea that sold online are either modified by the creator himself to give a not real product of his own, or stolen from others and modified. Everything we see are just marketing campaign selling beautiful stories and dream. haven't seen a forex ea maker/trader a listed billionaire yet either.
Well, let's not even talk about billionaires. Let's not even talk about millionaires.

Let's go with less than that.

Less than 500,000.

Less than 100,000.

Is there someone out there who made $1000 from an online purchased EA? A measly $1000. I have yet to get a call or PM from someone on this board and say "Jay, I'm so and so and I made money from an EA!"
Not all sins are created equal
  • #25
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:28pm Nov 13, 2012 8:28pm
Easy...My holy grail would be best suited to my own trading style, personality, AND risk/reward tolerances. I will say this though, I am NOT the only schmuck working in the Forex space (obviously), so it is unrealistic to believe that mine is mine alone...
  • #26
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:47pm Nov 13, 2012 8:47pm
Quoting pippiphooray
Easy...My holy grail would be best suited to my own trading style
That's probably the smartest thing said on this thread.

If you want the holy grail, look in the mirror.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #27
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:04pm Nov 13, 2012 10:04pm
I'm really surprised that any EA can work to be honest. The big arbitrage algos that the big boys use to skim little bits of profit which is a "sure thing" make sense....but EAs on MT4? I think there is a real disconnect in people's minds. They don't really understand that a computer can't actually SEE what a person sees on the screen where a chart is concerned. It's all just 1's and 0's to a computer and the box is just smashing numbers together. There is no pattern recognition because the very idea of recognizing patterns is a very "mind" concept. Computer's don't have minds.

As to one being successful....well I hear good things about that kangaroo EA...but the cost was more than I was willing to spring for just to see if it would work for me. Here's the stats from MyFXBook....200% in 2 years isn't anything to shake a stick at.

http://widgets.myfxbook.com/widgets/68427/large.jpg
  • #28
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:04am Nov 15, 2012 11:04am
Hmm... If retail traders are collectively estimated to be responsible for less than 10% of the daily forex volume, what's the point of looking at DOM from any brokers at all? Or any indicator that tells you what majority of traders are buying or selling for that matter. All retail traders can be 100% bullish at one time, but if the big guys say otherwise, they all gonna land flat face first. I think you use it as a gauge and try to identify the smart traders who know what they are doing.

@ FXAssassin, great explanation on the effect of leverage to liquidity.

I personally would call a system perfect/the Holy Grail if it can produce at least 25% return per month, required minimal monitoring, minimal drawdown so I'd never get a margin call, and more importantly, never make a losing month. Losing trades maybe, but not a losing month. I would know for sure that my bank account would grow at least 25% per month. I would be very happy with that money making machine. I probably won't share the actual system because of what I've learned here, but I would 100% sure to share the money coming from this fountain of money. The only thing stopping me to share more than what I'm sharing now, is my own stash. Gee... wouldn't that system be just awesometastic?

Again, I think the problem is our broker is our counter party to the trade. So they have every incentive and motivation to see us lose money. Anyone in any business wouldn't like to run a loss. Winning clients = business running on the red. Either a pure ECN or Interbank is the most likely solution.

@Hanover, do you know what software they use when trading big money where you were in Westpac tour? I bet it's proprietary, but do we have a name at least? Also, maybe it's a good idea for you to write a book on your forex adventure. You already got fans, you already have one pre-order, and you definitely have a niche.

@Jay, I think an EA making $1000 is totally possible. If you can make $1000 manually, providing that you use a 100% mechanical system, I don't see why you can't automate your system. I believe EAs can work great because there are great manual and mechanical trading systems out there. And you're right about selling EA. It is totally against your own self interest if you sell a working EA. It's the customers and complaints, as well as the liquidity issue in retail forex. So going back to my first point, someone somewhere, ... has the Holy Grail. And this thread only making him/her guarding it even closer.
  • #29
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:48am Nov 15, 2012 11:48am
Quoting Ishtana
@Jay, I think an EA making $1000 is totally possible. If you can make $1000 manually, providing that you use a 100% mechanical system, I don't see why you can't automate your system. I believe EAs can work great because there are great manual and mechanical trading systems out there. And you're right about selling EA. It is totally against your own self interest if you sell a working EA. It's the customers and complaints, as well as the liquidity issue in retail forex. So going back to my first point, someone somewhere, ... has the Holy Grail. And...
It's like me spending the night with Jessica Alba. Possible but not probable.

If there is one out there, my email address is in the signature area of my posts, so email me with the subject line "This EA Works" and I'll test it out. I don't believe that'll ever happen by the way.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #30
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:28pm Nov 15, 2012 12:28pm
To add to the points noted already isn't the problem that once released it would just become a race to see who could commit the most resources to trading the signal first and in that game those with bigger pockets win.
  • #31
  • Nov 15, 2012 12:32pm Nov 15, 2012 12:32pm
Quoting RandomOne
To add to the points noted already isn't the problem that once released it would just become a race to see who could commit the most resources to trading the signal first and in that game those with bigger pockets win.
I would love for everyone to use the same system. It would make the market horribly inefficient and I would gain from that
Not all sins are created equal
  • #32
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:28pm Nov 15, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting Jay Walker
The system is inefficient. To be consistently profitably means that you have found where the system is inefficient and exploiting that failure.

It's a bit like if you can hack into an ATM to get free money. If you're discreet, you may have a very good side income or even never work a day in your life again. But if you go out and tell everybody, the bank will plug the loophole.

If everybody traded the same method, that method would cease to work, it's as simple as that.
I don't believe that one bit! I believe the more one method is traded, the more it works.

Until it doesn't of course. But I've never seen that happen before.

All the powerful EMAs still work, divergence still works, ichimoku cloud still works, PRICE ACTION STILL WORKS (candles)

tons of very powerful indicators work, and i believe they only work because a) they happen to coincide with big players orders, or b) big players trade these indicators
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #33
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:54pm Nov 15, 2012 1:54pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
I don't believe that one bit! I believe the more one method is traded, the more it works.

Until it doesn't of course. But I've never seen that happen before.

All the powerful EMAs still work, divergence still works, ichimoku cloud still works, PRICE ACTION STILL WORKS (candles)

tons of very powerful indicators work, and i believe they only work because a) they happen to coincide with big players orders, or b) big players trade these indicators
Candles have never worked and divergence is just pure nonesense!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #34
  • Nov 15, 2012 2:32pm Nov 15, 2012 2:32pm
Quoting Jay Walker
That's probably the smartest thing said on this thread.

If you want the holy grail, look in the mirror.
Thanks!!! Knowing one's self is an often overlooked component of what we do. Without that honest reflection, you will flush your (or your client's monies) down the toilet.

Just an aside, that is one of the greatest challenges in developing an automated trading strategy, they are ALL developed by humans. As a result, ALL are falliable on one level or another, and ALL will paint themselves into a cormer.

Best of luck in your trading. I am sure we will cross posts again! Cheers
  • #35
  • Nov 15, 2012 4:37pm Nov 15, 2012 4:37pm
Quoting Jay Walker
Why would the creator of a working EA sell it when he can trade himself to unfathomable wealth instead and not have to deal with customer's questions or complaints?

Also, the broker is an outlet to the market and not the market itself.
I agree on the first part. That's why I have yet to ever break down and buy a commercial EA... despite how hard some of their sales sites push the stuff, LOL.

I've also seen how an EA's popularity can be it's undoing... it's fascinating actually. I've followed the recent popularity of tick scalpers and seen how droves of traders would group up on vendor's websites and when one finds a broker that executes well enough for the tick scalper to work they all pounce at once causing the broker to trip over themselves handling the order flow (often resulting in bad fills, or the broker changing trading conditions to they can manage the order flow better and this kills the effectiveness of the tick scalping EA.)

So instead, I have no problem analyzing what a commercial EA does, and use such strategies as inspiration as I code my own work...
FXGears.com
  • #36
  • Edited 8:51pm Nov 15, 2012 6:07pm | Edited 8:51pm
Quoting Ishtana
Hmm...
Ishtana,

I personally would call a system perfect/the Holy Grail if it can produce at least 25% return per month, required minimal monitoring, minimal drawdown so I'd never get a margin call, and more importantly, never make a losing month. Losing trades maybe, but not a losing month. I would know for sure that my bank account would grow at least 25% per month. I would be very happy with that money making machine. I probably won't share the actual system because of what I've learned here, but I would 100% sure to share the money coming from this fountain of money. The only thing stopping me to share more than what I'm sharing now, is my own stash. Gee... wouldn't that system be just awesometastic?
If you can make X% per month, then everything else being equal, you can make twice that amount by either doubling your risk per trade, or doubling your trading frequency, or using a MM that compounds more frequently; extrapolating this idea, you can make any figure, as large or as small as you want. However, the key is not how much you can maximally make, but how much you can safely make, i.e. size positions in such a way that drawdown does not become either mathematically or emotionally irrecoverable. Hence I'd contend that quoting return without any reference to risk is essentially meaningless. IMO trading comes down to somehow attaining a workable balance between these 4 factors: (1) maximizing return; (2) using MM that keeps drawdown within personally acceptable limits; (3) smoothness (consistency) of income — important if trading is your primary income source; (4) 'intangibles' like lifestyle, psychological and logistical considerations.

Again, I think the problem is our broker is our counter party to the trade. So they have every incentive and motivation to see us lose money. Anyone in any business wouldn't like to run a loss. Winning clients = business running on the red. Either a pure ECN or Interbank is the most likely solution.
People argue over whether FX is zero sum game or not; but ultimately, somebody must eventually lose, in order for somebody else to win; the $$$ has to come from somewhere, LOL. Obviously the big guys are going to use their knowledge and skill to its best possible effect; given the resources — vastly more money, superior information, expertise — they have at their disposal, the odds are stacked seriously against the retail trader. However, that's just one possible way of looking at it. Another is that prices are simply a series of generated numbers, and that forex is merely an activity where I sit at my computer, pitting my wits against a giant, inscrutable pattern-making machine; if I can somehow find recurring non-random patterns amongst the chaos, then I can systematically exploit these for profit.

@Hanover, do you know what software they use when trading big money where you were in Westpac tour? I bet it's proprietary, but do we have a name at least? Also, maybe it's a good idea for you to write a book on your forex adventure. You already got fans, you already have one pre-order, and you definitely have a niche.
No, I don't know the name of the software. I'd never seen it before, and I expect that it was either developed in-house, or that it's a package that's available to banks only. Its graphics looked quite antiquated. If I wrote a book, it would only be a few pages long, as I only spent a single afternoon there, LOL. One thing that I'll never forget, is that I met their chief economist; she had previously worked for the Reserve Bank of NZ (our equivalent of the Fed) for many years. Our visiting group spent about 45 minutes with her, seated around their meeting room table. One of our group members traded silver, and he asked her whether he should be (currently) long or short. I was spellbound by her expertise as she spent about 10 minutes explaining the precise effect of maybe 10-12 different economic factors on the price of silver, drawing charts and images on the whiteboard, and how she went about weighing them up against each other. She seemed like a total genius, to the point that another member of our group asked her: why don't you leave the bank, and trade your own account? She replied something like: Heck no, trading is far too risky. (Remember, the guys in the trading room were not taking positions on behalf of the bank; they were acting as br0kers for clients of the bank).

I think an EA making $1000 is totally possible. If you can make $1000 manually, providing that you use a 100% mechanical system, I don't see why you can't automate your system. I believe EAs can work great because there are great manual and mechanical trading systems out there. And you're right about selling EA. It is totally against your own self interest if you sell a working EA. It's the customers and complaints, as well as the liquidity issue in retail forex. So going back to my first point, someone somewhere, ... has the Holy Grail. And this thread only making him/her guarding it even closer.
I agree (as a programmer) that EAs can theoretically be created, to approximate the 'discretion' and judgement used by expert traders. But nailing down the discretionary aspects in mathematical terms (so that they can be coded) is not necessarily a trivial task.
Read these great (IMHO) posts by Fudomyo: posts #534, then #545, #558. They explain some of the discretionary considerations involved in a successful system. Also a fine post by Jack Larkin here, on the limitations of automated systems.

David
  • #37
  • Nov 15, 2012 7:56pm Nov 15, 2012 7:56pm
Candles have never worked and divergence is just pure nonesense![/quote]

That is probably the worst ever thing i have read on FF.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #38
  • Nov 15, 2012 8:01pm Nov 15, 2012 8:01pm
Quoting billytt
Candles have never worked and divergence is just pure nonesense!
That is probably the worst ever thing i have read on FF.[/quote]

Really Billy, WTF did you expect from Turdhead?
Not all sins are created equal
  • #39
  • Nov 15, 2012 9:53pm Nov 15, 2012 9:53pm
Quoting Ishtana
Holy Grail in Forex has been found. No doubt. Both manually and automatically. Manually, I've seen someone giving signals for more than 10 trades with 100% accuracy. Automatically, I've seen someone developed a money machine through expert system (not expert advisor), which involves API programming (direct broker's data feed farming), Artificial Life so the system can learn from mistakes, neural networking, and non-linear algorithm.

The Holy Grail has been found, or at least a few of you have found a very profitable trading system. The question...
this months holy grail is next months nightmare
The best indicator is price.
  • #40
  • Nov 15, 2012 11:09pm Nov 15, 2012 11:09pm
There is no holy grail.

There are strategies that work. There are even strategies that work consistently and produce big profits.

There are no strategies that work consistently and produce big profits without any significant drawdown that must be endured.
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