Immediate market reaction on news are still the same ? | Forex Factory

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Immediate market reaction on news are still the same ?

  • #1
  • First Post: May 31, 2006 3:38pm May 31, 2006 3:38pm
Hi all,
Dont you think that the market reactions on news have changed since the last 6 weeks period (since the dollar got weaker) ?
I don't see anymore since a while, except very few cases..., sharp immediate moves after the news realease.
It looks to me a confused up and down pips move, much more similar to a stop hunting..
What do you think ?
  • #2
  • May 31, 2006 4:36pm May 31, 2006 4:36pm
Quoting trucco
Hi all,
Dont you think that the market reactions on news have changed since the last 6 weeks period (since the dollar got weaker) ?
I don't see anymore since a while, except very few cases..., sharp immediate moves after the news realease.
It looks to me a confused up and down pips move, much more similar to a stop hunting..
What do you think ?
It's probably due to very little surprising news. Wait for a big move pretty soon though, dollar-related currencies have been thru accumulation over the last 2 weeks, they must get out of ranges pretty soon.

What I have noticed just last nite was that 2004 news announcements produced 100+ pips moves. I was pretty impressed with it.

Right now we barely see 1/4 of that.

I am not a big fan of news to be honest. I suspend trading 30 mins prior to news announcemnts and resume 30 mins after the news have come out.

I believe trading under news resembles more gambling than trading.
  • #3
  • May 31, 2006 4:51pm May 31, 2006 4:51pm
Yes, is true that many news are not a surprise in this period, but for instance I remember exactly that until 2 months ago a strong 'retail sales' figure for CAD was producing a 100 pips move in 2 seconds in the specific direction (bullish for cad), but the last strong CAD 'retail sales' figure, off 2 weeks ago, instead of move in one specific direction immediatly, made a kind of stop hunting without a sense..and many other news are like this since a while.
Before I found news trading a fear system for rewards/time and energies spent.
In last period I see it as stop hunting and confused no sense move reactions.
  • #4
  • May 31, 2006 4:53pm May 31, 2006 4:53pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
I believe trading under news resembles more gambling than trading.
I disagree, gambling is when you put money down on a position with no backing of any fundamental data from news release.
  • #5
  • May 31, 2006 4:57pm May 31, 2006 4:57pm
CORRECTION:
fair system for rewards/time and energies spent.
NOT
fear system for rewards/time and energies spent.

sorry for my english
  • #6
  • May 31, 2006 5:18pm May 31, 2006 5:18pm
Maybe in a few years the fundamentals will only move the market with a few pips, is that possible, or will the news always move the market strongly?
  • #7
  • May 31, 2006 5:27pm May 31, 2006 5:27pm
Hope will not be like this but I have the feeing something has changed
trading the news is a good way to dont waste time and energies
  • #8
  • May 31, 2006 5:40pm May 31, 2006 5:40pm
I believe the market is too much concentrated only on what the FED says about interest rates .. anyway, they will keep saying the same thing until possible..'we will keep attention on economical data'..
Let's hope after june hike or not hike things go back to normality , and also other very imporant macro economic data will have the same value as it was before.
I also noticed an other thing. Now everthing moves just related to the USD..playing on any pair against the dollar is exaclty the same..is just a matte r of proportions. Seems to be all pairs lost their own inside movememnts related to own economical data.
  • #9
  • May 31, 2006 7:15pm May 31, 2006 7:15pm
Quoting nitman
I disagree, gambling is when you put money down on a position with no backing of any fundamental data from news release.
How can any private trader possibly have access to that type of information before the big guys and interpret it right all the time?

When you have news announcements markets often gap, you get slippage, then they retrace, and go up and down like a yo-yo for a while before finally moving to a direction.

Of course there are instances where the market just takes off one direction and never looks back, however you must admit those scenarios are very rare.

When i said TRADING UNDER NEWS i meant getting in seconds after announcements.

Maybe its me who am a bad trader or little slow to catch up on the move.
  • #10
  • Jun 2, 2006 11:38am Jun 2, 2006 11:38am
This US labor news was a good one
I like news like this + 140 pips
  • #11
  • Jun 2, 2006 11:49am Jun 2, 2006 11:49am
made +100 pips
  • #12
  • Jun 4, 2006 4:55pm Jun 4, 2006 4:55pm
I made some money too on Friday.

However, my EURUSD long entry was hit at around 6.30 AM ET, thus well ahead of news announcements.

Had I not been in the market by 8 AM I would have missed the big move for sure because prices took off and never looked back.

This is the tricky part about the news. If you happen to be on the right side BEFORE news announcements, sometimes you make very easy pips.

If you are out, its pretty risky to try getting in seconds after news has been released simply because you just never know whether and how much prices will retrace or pull back.
  • #13
  • Jun 5, 2006 6:00am Jun 5, 2006 6:00am
Oftentimes the after action actually is very predictable and the easiest money to be made out there. Only a few times there is crazy whiplash into both directions.
  • #14
  • Jun 5, 2006 6:16am Jun 5, 2006 6:16am
On such news, i place order just a moment before the news, so im in (if I get in ) since the beginning.
Yes, getting into the trade after the big move is very risky for pull backs.
i did this mistake few times and never do again.
My rule for news is to be in from beginning or dont enter anymore.

Regadring the crazy whiplash into both directions I saw it just with the last CAD news. One was the interest rate hike, and the other was the retails sales..
For me they should have gone only to one direction immeditatly (maybe not the expected interest hike..) but they didnt, and i was stopped out..
  • #15
  • Jun 5, 2006 6:37am Jun 5, 2006 6:37am
By the way, How do you think the market will react immedialty after ECB Interest Rate Statement if interest rate will be moved to 2.75% ?

Im confused about , because in the last period reactions on interest rates statements were very pretty ping pong moving...

I can almost 100% expect that if the interest rate will be left to 2.50% there will be immediate euro sell off, but if will be 2.75% Im not sure will be immediate euro buy.

what do you think ?
  • #16
  • Jun 5, 2006 6:50am Jun 5, 2006 6:50am
i think the ecb will raise the rates to 2,75 %.
  • #17
  • Jun 5, 2006 7:04am Jun 5, 2006 7:04am
I think a lot of traders are expecting the ECB hike.. so for the most part it is already built into the current price.



Quoting trucco
By the way, How do you think the market will react immedialty after ECB Interest Rate Statement if interest rate will be moved to 2.75% ?

Im confused about , because in the last period reactions on interest rates statements were very pretty ping pong moving...

I can almost 100% expect that if the interest rate will be left to 2.50% there will be immediate euro sell off, but if will be 2.75% Im not sure will be immediate euro buy.

what do you think ?
  • #18
  • Jun 5, 2006 5:41pm Jun 5, 2006 5:41pm
I think the news is more or less discounted but if ECB goes for .50 up than you will see the change.
Quoting trucco
By the way, How do you think the market will react immedialty after ECB Interest Rate Statement if interest rate will be moved to 2.75% ?

Im confused about , because in the last period reactions on interest rates statements were very pretty ping pong moving...

I can almost 100% expect that if the interest rate will be left to 2.50% there will be immediate euro sell off, but if will be 2.75% Im not sure will be immediate euro buy.

what do you think ?
  • #19
  • Last Post: Jun 5, 2006 8:43pm Jun 5, 2006 8:43pm
Quoting jessieblue
Maybe in a few years the fundamentals will only move the market with a few pips, is that possible, or will the news always move the market strongly?
Look at the other markets. Bernanke speaks and the price of your stock drops a significant % the same day, at least the US stocks I own did. No changes in the company, nothing else... just a news report.
News is capable of generating fear and/or greed, it will always, always, always affect market movements.
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