GBP/USD and EUR/USD

GBP/USD in H4 Chart...

tsar,

nice charts and indis...what are they?

EUR/USD in H4 Chart...

My modificated from :

MAIN Windows : Advanced_Harmonic Pattern & another Indies.
SUB Windows : Spectrometr with another Indies.



For Private only...

ok'

I really so Sorry, Mate...
These the THIRD modificated my (main) Trading Style. And NOT Simple for understand likely the (finished) Chart I posted

I have another, most Simple than this.
And will send to you via PM. It's Special for you, Bro

EURUSD:
POSS break scenario become ture.
but for a very short period of time.

price actually stuck below Weekly Pivot @ 2759
now we have 3 scenarios

- roll down
- double bottom
- PB & Up

for all 3 , it first should go down even it will go up.

4H Chart did not print lower fractal for last 10 bars.
this means no proper pullback
this means no roper up move.

my conclusion is next session we will be trading more shorts then longs

walker.

EU tables budget deal that may please UK, anger France

By Charlie Dunmore
BRUSSELS | Wed Nov 14, 2012 4:20pm EST



(Reuters) - European Union chief Herman Van Rompuy tabled a compromise draft EU budget on Wednesday, aiming to mollify Britain which wants spending cuts but risking angering France by reducing farm subsidies.

Britain has threatened to veto the 7-year budget, saying the EU should limit spending in light of austerity cuts being made by national governments. Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands have demanded similar restraint.

Van Rompuy's draft would reduce the roughly 1 trillion euro budget for 2014-2020 proposed by the European Commission by about 80 billion euros and will be discussed by EU leaders aiming to strike a deal at a summit on November 22-23.

The proposal also safeguards a budget rebate paid to Britain each year to compensate for the relatively small amount of agricultural subsidies it receives - a payment that many other countries resent but recognize would be politically difficult to withdraw from one of the most Eurosceptic EU member states.

Under the proposal, all EU countries would share the cost. That means that Britain, paradoxically, would have to pay partly for its own refund, slightly reducing its net benefit. Payments would be made to Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden to compensate them for the cost of Britain's rebate.

The plan also protects EU spending on items such as research and energy infrastructure, at the expense of more traditional areas such agriculture, which should please northern European countries who say the bloc's budget framework is outdated.
But the suggestion to cut farm subsidies drew immediate criticism from top recipient France.

"We do not accept the proposal to reduce by 25 billion euros ($32 billion) the money for the Common Agricultural Policy, which we consider a policy for growth," Bernard Cazeneuve, France's European affairs minister, told parliament.
An even bigger reduction in funds for poorer regions is likely to face similar opposition from southern and eastern European countries such as Greece, Italy and the Czech Republic.


NOT ENOUGH

But Von Rompuy's 80 billion euros cut to the Commission's proposal is less than the 100-200 billion that Britain, Germany, Sweden and the Netherlands want.
"The revised proposal means some small steps in the right direction but it's not enough," Sweden's EU Minister Birgitta Ohlsson said. "We need a clear model for reducing agriculture subsidies."

The proposal also says two-thirds of revenues from a new financial transaction tax planned by about a dozen EU countries should be paid directly to the bloc's budget. But the idea is unlikely to win the support of most of the states involved, including Germany.
Britain has pushed to reduce the seven-year budget cycle to five years, something EU diplomats said could form the basis of a plan B if there is no agreement in November.

"Look at the last EU budget. The economic conditions in which the budget was agreed in 2005 were thrown into complete disarray by the financial crisis," Britain's Europe Minister David Lidington told German weekly Die Zeit.
"There seems to me to be a good case for thinking about a shorter period."

Britain's enthusiasm partly stems from the fact that the current budget proposal assumes higher growth in 2019 and 2020. Excluding those years would lead to a deeper cut in annual budget contributions.

($1 = 0.7867 euros)


(Additional reporting by Brian Love in Paris, Daniel Dickson in Stockholm and Gareth Jones in Berlin; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)



Source : Reuters

Economy Shows Green Shoots From China to U.S. With Data Surprise

By Simon Kennedy - Nov 15, 2012 3:00 AM GMT+0700



The U.S. and China, the world’s traditional twin sources of growth, are planting seeds to lift the world economy from its midyear slowdown.

http://www.bloomberg.com/image/iiBwCkAFirKs.jpg

“China and the U.S. are both improving, which is extremely good news,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. “If we could pretend Europe and Japan didn’t exist, the world would be fine.” Photographer: Simon Dawson/Bloomberg


Among the green shoots indicating faster expansion: stronger housing demand and hiring in the U.S. and accelerating factory output and retail sales in China. Responsible for a third of the world economy, the two countries are now providing ballast internationally as Europe and Japan stagnate.
“China and the U.S. are both improving, which is extremely good news,” Jim O’Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in a telephone interview. “If we could pretend Europe and Japan didn’t exist, the world would be fine.”

The rebound’s endurance may depend on whether authorities can clear a fog of doubt surrounding policy. U.S. lawmakers are debating how to curb $607 billion in automatic tax cuts and spending increases by year-end, while a once-in-a-decade leadership shift in China may raise questions about its direction. Elsewhere, Europe’s crisis-fighting remains erratic and Japan faces its own fiscal and political dilemmas.

“Policy uncertainty is affecting business confidence, delaying capital expenditure especially in the U.S.,” said Tim Drayson, global economist at Legal & General Investment Management in London and a former U.K. Treasury official. “The potential if we get a resolution of some of these issues is a release of pent-up demand.”


Optimistic Survey

Confidence in the economic outlook was highlighted by a survey of fund managers released Nov. 13 by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Global growth expectations were the most optimistic since February 2011 and the outlook for China’s economy surged to a three-year high.

For the first time in seven months a majority said profits will improve rather than deteriorate. More investors said companies should use idle cash to grow and increase capital spending rather than repair balance sheets or buy back shares. A net 37 percent of asset allocators said they were overweight in global emerging-market equities, up from 32 percent last month.

Strategists at Aviva Investors Global Services Ltd. said yesterday that more expansive monetary policies mean they attach a 65 percent probability to the world economy enjoying “better days” over the next six months with only a 20 percent chance growth stalls.

“The risk has abated somewhat, but we’re still awfully close,” Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer said in an interview in Jerusalem yesterday.
Rockwell Automation Inc. (ROK), a Milwaukee-based maker of software for factories, is among companies forecasting an economic turnaround.


‘Positive Impact’

“We’re counting on market conditions improving early enough to have a positive impact on the second half of our fiscal 2013,” Chief Executive Officer Keith Nosbusch said during a Nov. 5 conference call with analysts.

Third-quarter profits at Kentucky-based Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), owner of the Taco Bell and KFC fast-food chains, topped analysts’ estimates on sales gains in the U.S. and China. Kimberly-Clark Corp. (KMB), the Dallas-headquartered maker of Huggies diapers and Kleenex tissues, reported earnings in the same period that exceeded estimates and raised its forecast for profit this year amid sales gains in Latin America.

In a sign the world economy is emerging from its rough patch faster than economists anticipated, Citigroup Inc. gauges of whether incoming data exceeds or undershoots forecasts show U.S. and China indicators are increasingly proving stronger than anticipated. The so-called surprise index for the U.S. is at 57, up from a 2012 low of minus 65.30 in July, while China’s has risen to 27.30 from minus 87.80 in May.


‘Modest Acceleration’

Behind the upward turn is continued stimulus from monetary policy makers and a potential recovery in industrial growth after manufacturing production fell 2.6 percent in the three months through September, said David Hensley, director of global economic coordination at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. Order books and inventories suggest the slide may now begin reversing.

“We’re quite confident about the signs of stabilization,” Hensley said in a telephone interview.
“We expect some modest acceleration and we’re seeing signs of it if not full confirmation.”

In the U.S., consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, and an improving housing market are leading the expansion amid rising confidence, better employment prospects and healthier household finances. The pickup comes as the Federal Reserve undertakes its third round of quantitative easing.


Housing Recovery

In the housing industry, which helped trigger the last recession, residential real-estate prices increased in the year ended August by the most in two years. Housing starts surged 15 percent in September to the highest level in four years.

D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI), the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, reported fiscal fourth-quarter earnings this week that beat analysts’ estimates on higher orders.
“If housing continues to recover, that’s going to underpin the economy,” Bill Miller, chairman of Legg Mason Capital Management, told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 2. “The economy is probably in a troughing process. That would lead to growth next year.”

Overseas demand for U.S. products may also be proving resilient. Exports gained 3.1 percent in September, the biggest increase since July 2011, to a record $187 billion amid shipments to South and Central America.
“We see upside in the U.S. market coming from exports,” Michael Sutherlin, CEO at Joy Global Inc. (JOY), a Milwaukee-based maker of mining equipment, said in a Nov. 6 conference presentation. “The fundamentals in the U.S. market are moving in the right direction.”


Retail Sales

Still, in a sign the economy isn’t surging back, retail sales fell in October for the first time in four months, a report showed yesterday.
In China, the economy is growing at a rate closer to 8 percent after a seven quarter-slowdown, even though monetary easing has been on hold since July.

Factory output and retail sales exceeded forecasts in October and exports rose the most since May. The median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News is for an acceleration of gross domestic product growth to 7.7 percent this quarter and 7.9 percent in the subsequent three months.

“We’re mildly bullish and cautiously optimistic with respect to China,” John McCormick, Asia-Pacific Chairman for Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc (RBS), told Bloomberg Television’s “On the Move Asia” with Rishaad Salamat on Nov. 12, predicting growth “certainly” more than 7.5 percent and perhaps more than 8 percent.


More Gamblers

Sands China Ltd. (1928), the Macau casino operator controlled by billionaire Sheldon Adelson, posted a 17 percent increase in third-quarter profit as spending by middle-class Chinese gamblers boosted earnings. China Shipping Container Lines Co. (2866), the No. 2 cargo-box carrier, returned to profit in the third quarter, in part by raising Asia-Europe and transpacific rates.

Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for emerging markets at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA in Hong Kong, credits previous Chinese stimulus and acceleration in infrastructure construction for the rebound. A bonus is that the economy also may be pivoting away from its previous reliance on foreign demand toward domestic spending, she said.

Still, signs of malaise endure in the euro area and Japan. A report today is forecast by economists surveyed by Bloomberg News to show the 17-nation single currency bloc fell back into recession in the third quarter as the three-year sovereign debt crisis threatens to engulf Spain and finance chiefs mull how to fill a fresh hole in Greece’s balance sheet.

Spanish Bailout?

Economic confidence in the bloc fell to its lowest since 2009 last month and unemployment climbed in September to a record 11.6 percent. Industrial production tumbled the most in more than three years in September. Uncertainty also abounds as Spain resists a bailout request, which would trigger bond-buying from the European Central Bank.

Perhaps worse still are signs the region’s core economies have been infected. Germany, Europe’s largest economy, had larger-than-expected declines in exports, factory orders and industrial production in September, while business confidence unexpectedly dropped to its lowest in more than 2 1/2 years.

Portuguese GDP fell for an eighth quarter in the three months through September and unemployment reached a euro-era record of 15.8 percent, while Greece’s economy contracted for a 17th straight quarter, figures yesterday showed.
“There’s renewed concern about Greece, new concern about Germany,” Fischer said. “When Germany slows down that is big in Europe.”


Sharp Losses

It’s even worse in Japan, where GDP fell an annualized 3.5 percent last quarter amid slumping exports and consumer spending. Analysts polled by Bloomberg predict the contraction will extend into the final three months of the year. That’s hurting companies: Sharp Corp. (6753) and Panasonic Corp. (6752) are among those expecting losses this fiscal year.

The nation also faces an election: Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda said yesterday he would dissolve the lower house of parliament on Nov. 16 amid disapproval ratings as high as 64 percent.
Underscoring the threats of uncertainty and fiscal consolidation, Moody’s Investors Service revised down its forecasts for the Group of 20 economies this week to show growth of about 3 percent next year, barely above the 2.7 percent of 2012.


Dissipation Needed

A true global rebound may not be possible until political uncertainty dissipates, said Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., who predicts world expansion will remain “rather sluggish” worldwide.

While President Barack Obama has secured re-election and Greece nears another handout, more is possible. Deutsche Bank AG economists calculate a successful resolution of the U.S.’s so- called fiscal cliff could boost expansion by as much as two percentage points.

The Chinese Communist Party’s expected handover of power from party head Hu Jintao to Xi Jinping will create a leadership with “new energy,” said Chen Zhiwu, a finance professor at Yale University. That means “good news for the remainder of the year and first half of 2013” in China.

“The global economy could tip into a much better equilibrium if proper political cooperation in Europe and the U.S. were to unleash into proactive uses all the spare cash that is idling on the sideline,” said El-Erian in Newport Beach, California.
The recent pickup may still be rubbing off on other Asian economies, typically bellwethers for the health of international trade. Shipments from South Korea and Malaysia unexpectedly rose in October and Indonesia’s dropped less than predicted.


Brazilian Recovery

In South America, Brazil is also showing signs of recovery after slowing demand for exports led to a year of stagnation. GDP will increase 4 percent in 2013 from a projected 1.5 percent this year, according to a central bank survey of around 100 economists. The reason: a series of stimulus measures from tax breaks for industry to interest rate cuts. Outstanding loans grew 15.8 percent in the 12 months through September and car sales jumped 21.8 percent in October from a year earlier.

“Global growth has stabilized,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. “I doubt we’ll see any further downgrades in the outlook.”



Source : Bloomberg

Hi Fellow Traders,


In 10 Days, I tried give Information based News & Articles as the explanation about the State of the World's Economic, Now
These (really) an exhausting Job for me, btw... at least We get an idea where the Price will move in Trade

And Furthermore, I don't give information about NEWS & ARTICLE on the Next Post again.
Exception Marc Chandler, because He is as Good Market's Analyzer.
You can search for the information yourself at the Link Sites...


For the NEXT, I expect you All join the participation in this thread's
Let's share together, support each other and work as a TEAM WORK to get GREEN Pips for us.

There is the Great Businessman said "The TEAM WORK more solid than Worked individually"



Best Regards,
Tsar

ok boss....

eu so many potential

what to do......short or long?
Attached Thumbnails http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352934363

hi tsar and all,

GBPJPY 60M and EUROJPY 240M my view to going short, whats is your view ???

Cheers

For the LAST, I have 2 (Two) NEWS about US & ECB :nerd:

These 'Very Important' to Read & make me must Posting again... Don't MISS it !

US Credit Rating Could Again Take Hit in 2013 - Part 1

Published: Wednesday, 14 Nov 2012 | 8:30 PM ET
By: Reuters



In 2011, the United States emerged from a damaging budget battle with a downgrade of its pristine triple-A rating for the first time in history.
In 2013, it could be dealt even a bigger blow.

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section..._skies_200.jpg


The battle over avoiding the so-called "fiscal cliff" is the first of a likely series of partisan confrontations in Washington in the coming year that, if not resolved, could cause more downgrades of the U.S. credit rating.

"The rating is in the hands of policymakers," said John Chambers, chairman of Standard & Poor's sovereign rating committee, the agency that downgraded the United States in August 2011.

(Read More: Fiscal Cliff: America's Looming Economic Crisis)


In interviews with Reuters since the Nov. 6 election, all three major rating agencies said cutting the U.S. debt rating - still among the world's strongest - is highly likely if next year's budget process replays 2011's debt ceiling debacle or if the seemingly simple goal of cutting deficits goes unmet.

Should that happen, it could have a detrimental effect on the country's cost of borrowing and could also shift some investment away from the United States, though the country's big markets and attractiveness as a safe haven are likely to limit those effects.

In the absence of a sustainable, coherent medium-term vision for the U.S. federal budget, which has produced deficits above $1 trillion in each of the last four years, the rating will fall.
The fiscal cliff is one step in that process, but the possibility of a downgrade will still loom over Washington throughout the year.
"If no budget deal is reached in the early part of next year and the debt trajectory just continues to rise ...then we'd be looking at a downgrade of a notch to Aa1," said Bart Oosterveld, managing director at Moody's sovereign risk group.

Automatic spending cuts in January coupled with significant tax increases could take an estimated $600 billion out of the U.S. economy and push it into recession, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office's assessment of the fiscal cliff.The effects will be gradual, but significant, with the unemployment rate possibly rising to 9 percent.

If Congress goes over the cliff, Moody's said it will watch how the economy deals with the abrupt shock and will maintain the current negative outlook it holds on the United States. Ultimately, if Congress and the president can't reach a deal to stabilize and eventually reduce the debt, now at $16 trillion, Moody's will probably cut the United States' current Aaa rating.

Fitch, meanwhile, said even a deal to avert the cliff might not be enough to save the country's AAA rating. Temporary measures to stave off the budget shock without a credible strategy for the years beyond could earn the country a downgrade, said David Riley, managing director for sovereign ratings at Fitch.

(Read More: US Credit Rating Cut by Egan-Jones ... Again)

"We're going to find out over the coming months if that (a compromise) will be the case or not," Riley said. "There isn't that much time." The country needs a combination of increased revenue and reduced spending, Riley said.

US Credit Rating Could Again Take Hit in 2013 - Part 2

Published: Wednesday, 14 Nov 2012 | 8:30 PM ET
By: Reuters



That plan needs to be bipartisan and credible over the medium-term, he added, calling a cliff-induced recession "wholly unnecessary." Rating agencies will also be watching talks on raising the debt ceiling next year.

S&P cut the United States to AA-plus from AAA on Aug.5, 2011, blaming bitter debt debates that threatened to plunge the country into default and Republican obstruction during a process that was for years a formality.

If the same happens this time, Riley said, Fitch could slash its rating during the first half of the year.That could cause more turmoil for uncertain markets.
"The last time we faced this and the politicians played shenanigans with the debt ceiling and we were downgraded, it mattered in the sense that it led to a lot of volatility and a loss of confidence," said Julia Coronado, chief North America economist at BNP Paribas in New York.


Best Of A Bad Lot?

When S&P cut the United States last year, markets reacted badly. The benchmark S&P 500 index [.SPX Loading... () http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/CNBC_Im...ltime_icon.gif] slumped the Monday following, falling 6.7 percent to an 11-month low.

Paradoxically, U.S. Treasury yields plunged as spooked investors stampeded to safe havens. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note fell to 2.32 percent on Aug. 8 from 2.56 percent on Aug. 5 - and is now around 1.6 percent. That same knee-jerk response could be repeated.
"Investors need to hold billions and billions of dollars," said Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. "Where else are they going to go? Noise out of a rating agency is not going to change that." That's particularly the case with the euro zone in continued turmoil.

The area's three-years-and-counting debt crisis is still far from resolution. "Certainly the dollar has no challenger as the key international reserve currency," Chambers said.

S&P, having cut the rating last year, now could wait until the end of 2014 for another cut, Chambers said. Investors will likely have plenty of time to digest a downgrade.

(Read More: The Biggest Holders of US Government Debt)


Notably, countries that lose their AAA status typically take years to claw their way back to the top rating. S&P downgraded Australia in December 1986, and it took until February 2003 for its triple-A to be restored. Canada took from 1992 to 2002. Denmark was cut to AA-plus in 1983 and didn't get upgraded back to AAA until 2001.

There's because sovereign cuts at the AAA level are relatively rare, coming on issues that take years to resolve. "It's not really about the downgrade," said Jeff Rosenberg, BlackRock's chief market strategist for fixed income. It's about "what's occurring in the environment around that time period that's creating the momentum for the analysts to downgrade." Still, there's a reason why countries lose top ratings only with difficulty.

(Read More: US Is Debt Addict on 'Budgetary Crystal Meth': Gross)


If the United States does indeed hold onto its AAA from Fitch and its Aaa from Moody's - and its one-notch lower rating of AA-plus from S&P - it could happen because the world's biggest economy proves its resilience once again.
"When you're looking at the U.S. from this side of the Atlantic, you say the outlook looks quite good compared to the UK and the rest of Europe," Fitch's Riley said.

U.S. gross domestic product is expected to rise at a 2.2 percent annual rate in 2013, compared with 0.3 percent annual growth in the euro zone and 1.1 percent in the United Kingdom, according to Thomson Reuters. "If you can resolve this gridlock in Congress and provide some clarity, there's probably upside to the U.S. economy," Riley added.


Source : CNBC

Euro Zone Seen Sinking Into Recession as Germany Struggles

Published: Thursday, 15 Nov 2012 | 12:47 AM ET
By: Reuters



The euro zone likely slipped into its second recession since 2009 in the July-September period, as the three-year debt crisis slowed economic growth in Germany to a crawl.

http://media.cnbc.com/i/CNBC/Section...ilding_200.jpg


Economists expect EU statistics office Eurostat to say on Thursday that the bloc's output shrank 0.2 percent in the third quarter, as it did in the second quarter.

(Read More: A Sign of Recovery: Back to the Old Normal?)


That would put the 9.4 trillion euro ($12 trillion) economy, which generates a fifth of global output, officially in recession, although Italy and Spain have been contracting for months and Greece is suffering an outright depression.

"The distress in more vulnerable member states has progressively started to affect the remainder of the (European) Union," senior European Commission official Marco Buti said in a report this month forecasting a 0.4 percent contraction for the euro zone in all of 2012.

Hopes for a recovery next year are also fading, with the European Commission saying the economy will flatline in 2013.

(Read More: Greece City Shows Country How to Cut Debt)


A rebound in the euro zone could be vital for the rest of the world as the United States and China struggle with the impact of the crisis on their companies' ability to grow and prosper.

Millions of workers went on strike across Europe on Wednesday to protest the government spending cuts they say are driving the region into a deeper malaise but which Germany and the Commission say are crucial to healing the wounds of a decade-long, credit-fueled boom.

Output from euro zone factories dropped the most in nearly 4 years in September and companies as diverse as telecoms group Ericsson, Ford Motor, steel group Kloeckner and engineering firm Bombardier have announced job cuts.

(Read More: European Parliament Boycotts EU 2013 Budget Talks)


EU officials say the euro zone is on the right path as labor costs fall and exports begin to rise. The European Central Bank's promise to buy euro zone government bonds has also drawn foreign investors back into sovereign debt markets.

But after months of resilience, Germany, Europe's largest economy, is seeing its companies unnerved by the crisis and demand for its goods in the euro zone and abroad is drying up.

While German gross domestic product expanded by 0.5 percent in the first quarter, it slowed to 0.3 percent in the second and economists polled by Reuters see growth weakening further to 0.2 percent in the July-September period.

Spain and Italy will also report GDP figures on Thursday, but it is France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, that many are watching to see if its economy stagnates or shrinks.

"France in particular is a cause for concern," said Deutsche Bank in a report. "France's economy is in the doldrums, with still poor growth prospects and weak export development," the bank said, pointing to its declining share of world export markets, unprofitable companies and low investment incentives.



Source : CNBC

Great Graphic: Data Surprises in the US and Europe

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15, 2012
Marc Chandler



http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-oUhFfdMnm-...%2Bindices.png


This Great Graphic was posted on the Sober Look blog. It took it from research from JP Morgan.
It compares the bank's data surprise models for the US and Europe. It documents what we have experienced.

US data has generally surprised economists on the upside is early summer.
European data was improving relative to expectations July and August, but then has disappointed consistently.

Data surprise models are common, but often misused. There are two components to the "surprise" and neither is stationary.

The first, of course, is the data itself.
Much of the high frequency economic data that is tracked is volatile by the very nature and often double-count, such as durable goods orders and factory orders, or retail sales, which account for roughly 40% of personal consumption expenditures and PCE itself.

In many models, all the time series used are equally weighted, yet some data is more important than others and some data is more volatile than others. A rise of 1.0% increase in new home sales may not be as significant as a 0.5% rise in core retail sales (excluding autos, gasoline and building materials, which is used for GDP calculations).

The second component are expectations, which are also constantly being adjusted by the army of economists, policy makers, and investors.
Expectations in such models are often seen as fixed points rather than a range. Some data, for a number of reasons, including the way the it is collected, is easier to forecast, like consumer prices. Other time series are notoriously difficult to forecast, like the monthly non-farm payroll number.

Some study of market expectations suggest that they are not typically normally distributed. In some ways, like market returns themselves, the tails are fatter and the is more gathered around the mean. Perhaps it is how economists and analysts are compensated, broadly understood.
There might be some incentives to stick out from the crowd and make bold forecasts. At other times or in different places, there may be incentives not to stick one's neck out, so to speak.

Yet, no one likes to be wrong long. After the period where the data has generally surprised to the upside in the US, economists "chase" the market and adjust their forecasts. It is possible, like investor they get the timing wrong. Just as economists revise up their forecasts, the US economy softens a bit after a relatively respectable Q3 (which may be revised up, and such revisions are often not taken into account by the surprise models).

The surprise models are most useful when they prod us to ask the next question; not when we are told that pictures speak for themselves.

Multi Pairs FX in Bar Trend + Power Graph

Thursday - November 15, 2012

Dynamic Trend : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from H4 to M1 time frime
Daily Dynamic : Looking for Any Pairs Trends, from D1 to D4 time frime

Multi Levels for POUNDS in H1 time frime

Thursday, November 15, 2012

GREEN Levels Colour (with Prices) is SMALL Levels move.
PURPLE Levels Colour (with Prices) is MEDIUM Levels move.
BLUE Levels Colour (with Prices) is BIG Levels move.

Broken Lines Colour (without Prices) is IMPORTANT Levels.