Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

Ok...No wonder... I missed out the 50ema...
Hmm..I am still not very good in the price action..I have to read more...
Tks...

Arjun's method...I am still not very clear..I think I have to re-read the "Arjun's post" PDF file again..cos not very clear..which sentence goes to which graph..
Anyway, it is really nice to see many helpful people here..Thank you..

Happy Deepavali Everyone...

Dear Emmanuel7788

U have helped me in the past also for which I m thankful.

This time I m writing to u to know if we can have facility of viewing other TFs. I mean 15m,30m,1h,4h,1d week etc. r available on MT4, but if we want to see TFs like 2h,6h,12h etc. how can we see that. I know it may be difficult but if u have knowledge of this, please tell me, should be very much useful in analysing charts better.

JJ...........true words to describe in picture form......... ( not just Banks, Corporation & Politician too...lol)

Jj7000 & Davit – some great points guys (new/young traders should take note of the two posts)

Waiting for the right setups is key, why force the trade?

From a personal prospective – I have read quite a bit of the thread (still not fully but the core initial stages) – my primary aim was to adapt whatever was in the thread to my personality/logic. Few simple things I like to keep – focus on a selected number of pairs, focus on key setups (ones I know I can master), focus totally on entry – as a scalping mind I feel entry is the most important feature to these methods.

Good entry = good SL. Good entry = manageable TP. Bad entry = Higher risk on SL and TP.

If a trade has a SL of 12 pips and TP of a typical Arjun style scalp 12-15 pips, then entry is so important. You miss the ‘ideal/good’ entry point say by 3-4 pips that’s already creating a bigger SL and you already down 25-35% on your potential trade profit. (forget pip talk as % of account is key. Surely a trade risk of X% has a factor on trade size if sl is 12 or sl 15 or sl is 20).

So like jj7000 mentions why force trades? Some morning trades in my eyes were of higher risk. News driven moves to new levels has higher risk in terms of SL placement – the volatility in the ‘recent bars’ automatically suggest that the SL should be larger. Whether 200ema, 800ema, RN or whatever on such a move can easily take out our typical/comfort SL of 12-15-20 pips. If it’s a ‘technical’ move to key areas then that’s totally diff, however, as I mentioned in my earlier post as scalpers why take such risk on news driven mkts. Example – this morning chop was all news related. Some may say its worth the risk for 10-15 pips…is it? If you trade 1 lot then you may think ok I will give it a shot (just bec of monetary value). Would you do the same thing if you traded 5-10-20-30 lots? Im not mentioning trade size here, but surely must think in terms of % of acc.

As scalpers why even leave a trade overnight? (just my suggestion so please no fire backs, lol). If we leave a trade overnight - as soon as we close the charts we are thinking about the trade, before sleeping we thinking, waking up we thinking and cannot wait to open the charts to see if tp or sl hit. That’s just a pure coin toss? Yes it was bec of a trade setup but sl say 10-12 pips and tp 10-12 pips, is it worth it? Surely in fx 10-12 would be hit in 10-30 mins. (You get a losing overnight trade, especially after trade goes say +9 pips, just 1 pip from tp - you will have a bad day mind-set wise the following day!)

Davit’s point on limited number of pairs – surely this is vital? In short if euro and e/j are very closely correlated on the day would you take same risk as normal on both for the trade setups? Even if its euro and swissy? Etc etc…Typically euro, e/j, and any other correlated pair could have the same price action – trading such correlated pairs at the same time increases risk (bias)…unless you split into overall one trade risk. Maybe focus on core pairs and managing risk of account with trade size, risk per trade - ‘total pips’ does not paint the whole story.

Anyway just few points on comments made by jj7000 and Davit….was having the same discussion with a young trader regards this just last week.

Sorry people to bore you with so much text….

There are lot more seniors better qualified to answer you but I suggest reading the thread. Ciaro 10+vouch (skype boddy)diligently has been reading the thread and he got lot out of it.
Problem with any system is it depends on you.How you filter the trades.The trader's psychology takes over.Before you begin do a week of PRICE ACTION study.What does this mean?Its not just candle formation.It incorporates News,sentiment,direction,volume and order flow.Once you get a feel for it Arjun's method will make lot more sense.
Regards

What do you use to spot divergence.
thanks bro

Analysis of a potential setup

Aud Was setting up for potential long, it had the opportunity, the retest came, with the pinbar, but the pinbar did not bounce off the 10 or 50MA but sank through them, not a strong sign. the market retested the 4000 handle and 800ma (15 min) before moving higher. A trend may be starting, but not strong yet

The risk of getting too early on a potential trend, it needs strength to confirm it
P

Hi,

I use standard MACD 12,26,9 to spot divergence . I don't use it any other way.

Great visual Illustration Gilbril,lol you made me laugh. very good.

JJ............. borrowing your words...........

It's better to wait for everything to line up and take a high probability trade than to risk your money on sub par set-ups.


I'm giving simple example to show typical trade set up from Arjun method. ( for the Chart attached)

This is basic rules.

1. Below 200 EMA (15M), below 50EMA (60M), below 10EMA (4Hr) looking for short.

2. Mark the resistance area on 4hr and 1 hr.

3. On 1 Hr, it's triple top and railway tracks. wait for the price to drop below 50EMA

4. On 4Hr. Candle with Long upper Wicks.......rejecting 126.500 level as previous resistance. Price below 10EMA

5. Personally...I prefer signal No.1, when price approach 200EMA ( on 15M), bounce a bit , then continue down to BRN. ( good for 30 pips with 10 pips SL)

6. signal No. 2, easier to spot, a continuation from earler trade and HTF already confirmed the trend. SL is just few pips above 200EMA ( 15M) and TP at BRN.

7. This is the way I see what JJ said about everything to line up .

8. You have to look at post that clarify the relationship between 10,50,200 EMA in each time frame. But 10 EMA in any time frame is most crucial to look at.

Thank You for reading.

giBRiL

Nice post! It's true!
Thanks

It is critical When to take the trade. I never take a trade close to end of NY. Usually after London close by 1pm expect crappy noisy range market.
Market can decide to go opposite your position when Asia begins so NO trade ZONE 1pm-8pm for me.
Another thing to consider is order flow.Big banks,hedge funds place their orders during most liquid times because they get a better price usually in set installments usually in around whole numbers like 8:30,9am ,10am ,11am 11:30 by 1pm they are done! Which means no real volume to move the price hence choppy times.
Another thing to be aware is huge spikes these orders create so I kind of look for them...to avoid or exploit

let's see.

Another example to share.


1. Tokyo open with Japanese fakey....unless you take note the 4HR resistance is very strong ( represent as 50ema on 4HR TF, 200EMA on 1Hr TF and 800EMA on 15M TF)

2. BEOB formed on 3rd hours after tokyo.

3, Long upper wicks on 4hr. ( wicks are fakey on 15M TF)

4. BRN act as seller point. (83.000)

5. RN 82.500 is also 50% fib good place for TP


Thank You..hope this helps a bit. Need to practice to see this set up everyday. Simple by visual and logic of 10EMA. I've been doing this for the past 6 months, and you can find it in ant pairs everyday....except during major holiday and/or news.

gibRil

[quote=Gibril;6191683]Another example to share.


1. Tokyo open with Japanese fakey....unless you take note the 4HR resistance is very strong ( represent as 50ema on 4HR TF, 200EMA on 1Hr TF and 800EMA on 15M TF)

.........


Thanks Master Brother Gibril for the last two posts. It's a Masterpiece for sure. Printed them out for my records. Appreciate your time and help.

Love, Ciara

HOW TO THINK

If you notice, I only use EMA, fib and pivot to read charts.

The reason I don't use any indicators is bexause I do not know how to analyse them ( as i'm new to forex ... less than 1 year)

The other thing is when I see trading with indicators, its a lot like trading with third party signals. We can only hopr that the information signals are giving us is right.

And lastly.,,,,, By looking at indicator signal , we dont actually understand the REAL reason why we are taking the trades that we are taking. Every trade we take must have a strong reason for us to do so.

In the end we hope the indicators formula is accurate for us to take the trade..... without knowing WHY....

Maybe this picture apply to traders...........not just children...lol

Thank You


giBRiL

ARJUN's forex Trading Rules


Create a trading plan

Having a plan for where to get in and where to get out will relieves you from having to think on your.

Because without a plan will cause you to freeze and be indecisive and in turn cause more emotional stress.

Master this FOUR.... you will bw succesful

giBriL

Thx Master Gibril. How do you trace the Pivot? Can you adivce me any tool that can be useful?

I take a bade trade today ( maybe unlucky) on the AUDJPY pair.
Short position at: 82.83 SL: 82.93
Price went to 82.939....

AC H4...boring pair..

love, Ciara