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vsa with Malcolm

  • #23,121
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:43am Nov 13, 2012 6:43am
Quoting Intel
Is there a setup forming?
Usual TP just hit.
  • #23,122
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:44am Nov 13, 2012 6:44am
Quoting Intel
Usual TP just hit.
If anyone is still holding a short, exit now would be prudent.
  • #23,123
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:46am Nov 13, 2012 6:46am
Quoting Intel
Usual TP just hit.
There was 1 pseudo upthrust and 1 upthrust after the buying climax. It was followed by a no demand bar. Short at 2714 at the break of the no demand bar?
  • #23,124
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:50am Nov 13, 2012 6:50am
Quoting lx384
There was 1 pseudo upthrust and 1 upthrust after the buying climax. It was followed by a no demand bar. Short at 2714 at the break of the no demand bar?
My ND low was at 2716 but, yes thats right. Do you know why I would trade this setup but not the one from earlier? After all, the entry was before the UT confirmation in both.
  • #23,125
  • Nov 13, 2012 6:58am Nov 13, 2012 6:58am
Quoting lx384
Here's a trade that I just took. Only 1 today.

VSA experts, please give me your take on my analysis.

Attachment

I took bar 1 as a selling climax. It was a wide spread bar on the highest volume of the day. It just broke a support at 2672. Whether it is a real break will be determined on the next bar.

If it was a real break, price would have continued falling. But bar 2 retraced part of the move on equally high volume. This told me that there were buyers lurking at this area. So now, I'm looking for a long....
I don't have much time to explain a great deal but,

1 is not a SC
4 is not a NS
You were right to exit if you were concerned but, if you were concerned at that point, you shouldn't have entered at all. It just means you've entered a trade which you don't fully understand and are not really sure about.

You at least got the market sentiment correct tho, so well done for that!
  • #23,126
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:03am Nov 13, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Intel
I don't have much time to explain a great deal but,

1 is not a SC
4 is not a NS
You were right to exit if you were concerned but, if you were concerned at that point, you shouldn't have entered at all. It just means you've entered a trade which you don't fully understand and are not really sure about.

You at least got the market sentiment correct tho, so well done for that!
Just read this post back and it sounds like I'm being a bit condescending. It wasn't meant that way sorry.
  • #23,127
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:17am Nov 13, 2012 7:17am
Quoting Intel
My ND low was at 2716 but, yes thats right. Do you know why I would trade this setup but not the one from earlier? After all, the entry was before the UT confirmation in both.

Care to explain why? I'm guessing it's because there is a real climax in price action?
  • #23,128
  • Nov 13, 2012 7:40am Nov 13, 2012 7:40am
Quoting Intel
I don't have much time to explain a great deal but,

1 is not a SC
4 is not a NS
You were right to exit if you were concerned but, if you were concerned at that point, you shouldn't have entered at all. It just means you've entered a trade which you don't fully understand and are not really sure about.

You at least got the market sentiment correct tho, so well done for that!
1 is not a SC because the spread is not wide enough?
4 is not a NS because the spread is too wide?
I wasn't concerned about my entry, in fact I was happy with my price. I was just concerned about the price action at the upper tier which was close to the supply area. I would expect volume to start increasing as we approach it instead of decreasing. Yea, since I was concerned, nothing wrong in closing the trade. A profit is better than a loss. Just wondering if anyone would have held longer and why.
  • #23,129
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:22am Nov 13, 2012 8:22am
Quoting lx384
1 is not a SC because the spread is not wide enough?
4 is not a NS because the spread is too wide?
I wasn't concerned about my entry, in fact I was happy with my price. I was just concerned about the price action at the upper tier which was close to the supply area. I would expect volume to start increasing as we approach it instead of decreasing. Yea, since I was concerned, nothing wrong in closing the trade. A profit is better than a loss. Just wondering if anyone would have held longer and why.
heh, you an Intel have the back and forth going on!

Lets start with your 1 bar, you labeled Selling Climax, look at the volume on this bar, and look at the volume on the bar before. The volume is high, but not climatic. Now look at bar 9, the volume is climatic on that bar.. see how much higher it is compared the the bar before. A selling climax, both the spread and the volume are going to be climatic, they will be HUGE compared to the previous bar(s). I would probably label bar 1 as hidden potential buying, which there was buying on this bar as to the next bar closes up.

Now on bar 4, it is not a NS, its a bad test. I say bad because I want to see the low of a test to dip below the previous bar and to close up towards the top, this closes towards the middle and does not dip below the previous bar which still makes it a bad test. Look at the bar after the test, this is how the spread of a NS/ND should look compared to the spread of the previous bars. Please note I am only using this as a comparison on spread, due to this bar closes up and to be a NS it would have to close down but the key here is that a NS/ND is going to be very narrow and very low volume.

Also look at bar 5 this is a 2 bar reversal, or a shake out across two bars, the previous bar closes down and the next bar closes on the high and closes about even to the high of the previous bar. Take a look at your chart from yesterday as well, bar 4 and 5 that is another 2 bar reversal.+

For your chart I would have labeled bar 3 as a HV SO, the bar before 4 as a test and entry off the 2 bar on 5.
  • #23,130
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:29am Nov 13, 2012 8:29am
Whilst I first used VSA in Tom's original software program nearly 30 years ago, I now use it as very simple alert via Sonic's nice Histogram, which I combine with a simple ATR histogram. Almost every swing High / Low will get picked up by these alerts, which when combined with the Daily Pivot Levels and ATR Projections give the experience trader high probability entries and exits.

As has been said before - you dont need to get involved with every definition, use some common sense and get on with banking those slippery pips!

The huge spike up into the high was caused by a report in the German Press Bild Zeitung suggesting an iminent plan to bundle three existing payments to Greece - I sold after the second high....and took partials after the red spinning top at the S2 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nov 13 € 5m 1613 gmt +2.gif Size: 27 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #23,131
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:33am Nov 13, 2012 8:33am
Quoting SimpleDev
For your chart I would have labeled bar 3 as a HV SO, the bar before 4 as a test and entry off the 2 bar on 5.
But honestly for someone new to VSA I think that your trade is a bit risky, referring back to my post about only trading a SC/BC, SO/UT and NS/ND.

Here is what I see as an easy traditional VSA trade.

First bar is a BC
Second a HV UT
Third is a LV UT (Think of HV UT as a SO and a LV UT as a test)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5m.jpg Size: 101 KB
  • #23,132
  • Edited 9:34am Nov 13, 2012 8:37am | Edited 9:34am
Please note this also is not directed at any one.

As a student of Wyckoff I appreciate your bar analysis, however I still cant really get my head around it. I look at Wave structure, which kinda translates to force, measured in time distance and volume.

So this is the same move translated quickly as I have just entered a long play.

A downwave (bold red arrow) takes place with no followthru then we go back and forward a bit which kinda indicates the supply is waning. However as demand has not shown up no trade for me. We then get a big up wave and weak retraces only back to the 50% zone. Even though we have a lower High at we can infer supply is weak and demand is stronger at this stage- for how long??

Probabilities:
We are in an old demand zone
we have a higher Low (as shown)
Trend line developing So possible safe stop placement
A is not valid as Demand has not proven itself
B is valid as we have demand showing up
RR works up to supply zone
Known stop placement

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-11-13_0635_FF.png Size: 48 KB
  • #23,133
  • Nov 13, 2012 8:43am Nov 13, 2012 8:43am
Hi Islander,
any chance of sharing the ATR histogram indicator ?
Drew...
Quoting Islander
Whilst I first used VSA in Tom's original software program nearly 30 years ago, I now use it as very simple alert via Sonic's nice Histogram, which I combine with a simple ATR histogram. Almost every swing High / Low will get picked up by these alerts, which when combined with the Daily Pivot Levels and ATR Projections give the experience trader high probability entries and exits.

As has been said before - you dont need to get involved with every definition, use some common sense and get on with banking those slippery pips!

The huge spike...
  • #23,134
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:10am Nov 13, 2012 10:10am
Quoting drewIOW
Hi Islander,
any chance of sharing the ATR histogram indicator ?
Drew...
here you go....
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Atr&CandleLength.mq4   4 KB | 576 downloads
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #23,135
  • Nov 13, 2012 11:26am Nov 13, 2012 11:26am
Thanks so Much
Drew
Quoting Islander
here you go....
  • #23,136
  • Nov 13, 2012 12:22pm Nov 13, 2012 12:22pm
Quoting tpr
For those familiar with Todd Krueger's lessons, this one is pretty good in explaining what really moves the price, who's in control and how you can potentially take advantage of it.
Great video, thanks for posting.

Intel, good to see you back, time for a thread resurrection i think.
Seek not to change the world; seek only to change your mind about the world
  • #23,137
  • Nov 13, 2012 3:52pm Nov 13, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting Islander
Whilst I first used VSA in Tom's original software program nearly 30 years ago, I now use it as very simple alert via Sonic's nice Histogram, which I combine with a simple ATR histogram. Almost every swing High / Low will get picked up by these alerts, which when combined with the Daily Pivot Levels and ATR Projections give the experience trader high probability entries and exits.

As has been said before - you dont need to get involved with every definition, use some common sense and get on with banking those slippery pips!

The huge spike...
Sentiment, non-discretionary price levels, and common sense!

Nice post
  • #23,138
  • Nov 13, 2012 4:06pm Nov 13, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting ady_babe
Please note this also is not directed at any one.

As a student of Wyckoff I appreciate your bar analysis, however I still cant really get my head around it. I look at Wave structure, which kinda translates to force, measured in time distance and volume.

So this is the same move translated quickly as I have just entered a long play.

A downwave (bold red arrow) takes place with no followthru then we go back and forward a bit which kinda indicates the supply is waning. However as demand has not shown up no trade for me. We then get...
Hi there,

Maybe it would help to look at VSA from another perspective. The HLC is part of the analysis but the volume is the soul of it.

By the time price is making fun trends (which are fine to trade btw) large traders have already taken their positions. The reason is liquidity, focus on that and you will get it.
  • #23,139
  • Nov 13, 2012 5:56pm Nov 13, 2012 5:56pm
Quoting gez40
Great video, thanks for posting.

Intel, good to see you back, time for a thread resurrection i think.
Hey gez. Just popping in I'm afraid.
I found I was devoting too much time to this thread and it was playing havoc with my trading so, I had to put an end to it
Guess I can't stop myself sometimes!

It would be really nice to see thethread being used for education again tho.

If Islander is sticking around, many will learn a great deal. Nice to see you about again Islander
  • #23,140
  • Nov 13, 2012 11:36pm Nov 13, 2012 11:36pm
Quoting ady_babe
Please note this also is not directed at any one.

As a student of Wyckoff I appreciate your bar analysis, however I still cant really get my head around it. I look at Wave structure, which kinda translates to force, measured in time distance and volume.

So this is the same move translated quickly as I have just entered a long play.

A downwave (bold red arrow) takes place with no followthru then we go back and forward a bit which kinda indicates the supply is waning. However as demand has not shown up no trade for me. We then get a big up wave...
Very nice post.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
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