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Trade the News With Price Action

  • #41
  • Nov 8, 2012 5:12am Nov 8, 2012 5:12am
i miss this trades and its making me crazy i should have got pips now
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  • #42
  • Nov 8, 2012 8:53am Nov 8, 2012 8:53am
Quoting afolabiay
i miss this trades and its making me crazy i should have got pips now
Hi afolabiay

I noticed that often the price action before the News weakens or strengthens - obviously the punters have wind of the result - Last night NZDUSD was falling long before the news broke!!
  • #43
  • Nov 8, 2012 11:16am Nov 8, 2012 11:16am
Quoting jmtini
Hi afolabiay

I noticed that often the price action before the News weakens or strengthens - obviously the punters have wind of the result - Last night NZDUSD was falling long before the news broke!!
yea the pro investor already think where the price is going only surprises from the country economic that make the market go otherwise just like AUD interest rate investors forecast that the rate will cut from 3.50 to 3.00 which is negative to the country economic, see the AUD retails sales too which the forecast is greater than previous which is in favor of the currency. that is why you see the market react in a direction before the news is even out because the investor already think where it is going due to their forecast on the countries economic outlook.
if you get this let me know...
  • #44
  • Nov 9, 2012 7:25am Nov 9, 2012 7:25am
This week news i made AUD= -20
NZD= +42
USD= No signal due to Investors disagreement

This week price action GBP= +76
AUD=+31
USD=+13

Total pips =152 pips

Not bad for a week

Next week will be more better than this week
  • #45
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:27am Nov 9, 2012 9:27am
Quoting jmtini
Hi afolabiay

I noticed that often the price action before the News weakens or strengthens - obviously the punters have wind of the result - Last night NZDUSD was falling long before the news broke!!
That's not the case.

Many times the price before the release goes south, while after the news it gaps higher.

Before any major news announcement like NFP or cash rate, the liquidity providers (banks) withdraw their liquidity from the market afraiding that they will not be able to hedge their open positions if the marked suddenly moves to one direction. With limited liquitity the price is more volatile because there are less buyers and sellers available.

That is the only reason you are seeing sharp moves in the last seconds before the news release.
  • #46
  • Nov 9, 2012 9:28am Nov 9, 2012 9:28am
Quoting afolabiay
i miss this trades and its making me crazy i should have got pips now
It is called hindsight
  • #47
  • Nov 9, 2012 10:16am Nov 9, 2012 10:16am
Quoting spips
It is called hindsight
i love your word it makes sense
  • #48
  • Nov 9, 2012 12:39pm Nov 9, 2012 12:39pm
Quoting spips
That's not the case.

Many times the price before the release goes south, while after the news it gaps higher.

Before any major news announcement like NFP or cash rate, the liquidity providers (banks) withdraw their liquidity from the market afraiding that they will not be able to hedge their open positions if the marked suddenly moves to one direction. With limited liquitity the price is more volatile because there are less buyers and sellers available.

That is the only reason you are seeing sharp moves in the last seconds before the news...

Can't agree with you - if you look at AU price rose sharply - drop beforehand was just a fakey. When PA is above rising support or below dropping resistance - very rarely have I seen it shoot the other way after news - Does happen occasionally but it's rare.
  • #49
  • Nov 9, 2012 12:56pm Nov 9, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting jmtini
Can't agree with you - if you look at AU price rose sharply - drop beforehand was just a fakey. When PA is above rising support or below dropping resistance - very rarely have I seen it shoot the other way after news - Does happen occasionally but it's rare.
if there is no conflict in 2 news that is out at the same time, then the market will move in one direction but if there is a conflict the market is unpredictable
regards
  • #50
  • Nov 10, 2012 2:19am Nov 10, 2012 2:19am
Next week News List

Tuesday- GBP Consumer price index

Wednesday- GBP Jobless Claims
GBP Inflation Report
USD Advance Retails Sales
FOMC meeting

Thursday- GBP Retails sales
USD CPI
USD Jobless claims

This is the news we have for next week..we will make pips from this.

Thanks
Regards
  • #51
  • Nov 11, 2012 1:43pm Nov 11, 2012 1:43pm
Quoting jmtini
Can't agree with you - if you look at AU price rose sharply - drop beforehand was just a fakey. When PA is above rising support or below dropping resistance - very rarely have I seen it shoot the other way after news - Does happen occasionally but it's rare.
Hello,

You must have missunderstood my statement. I only explained why in the seconds before a big release the price is more volatile, and I said that the small move seconds before the release might be of the opposite direction of the move after the release and that we should not be paranoid about people getting the numbers earlier etc etc.

Every news trader should know about news lock-ups and how the actual numbers are fed to the public. There are sometimes leakages, and sometimes hints (as the recent example of Cameron with the UK GDP number) but lets not be paranoid. At the time of the news and seconds/miliseconds before that, there are many traders closing orders afraid of the price moving against them, there are retail traders with buy and sell stops above and below the price, more experienced traders with sell and buy limits above and below the price,several momentum algo's trying to interpret any possible news result from the market speed and of course, collocated algos that get instantly fed with the data via FIX and execute the commands from the same physical location of the exchange, saving this way several miliseconds which are critical when talking about news.
  • #52
  • Nov 11, 2012 11:18pm Nov 11, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting spips
Hello,

You must have missunderstood my statement. I only explained why in the seconds before a big release the price is more volatile, and I said that the small move seconds before the release might be of the opposite direction of the move after the release and that we should not be paranoid about people getting the numbers earlier etc etc.

Every news trader should know about news lock-ups and how the actual numbers are fed to the public. There are sometimes leakages, and sometimes hints (as the recent example of Cameron with the UK GDP number)...
Hi
Wow, sounds complicated but I think I understand what you're saying. Just what I said before about the trend vs fakeys. Let's just see what happens in the days ahead. But if I see a steady fall before a major news release I'm not going to buy beforehand and vise versa. Let's take an actual example with this week's news!

rgds
  • #53
  • Nov 12, 2012 10:59am Nov 12, 2012 10:59am
GBP Consumer Price Index Previous 2.2% Forecast 2.4%
Core Consumer Price Index---Previous 2.1 Forecast 2.2

Analysis

Spike Trading - Buy GBPUSD 30 seconds before the release of the news (Stop Loss 20 Pips)

Main News - Buy If CPI = 2.9 or greater than 2.9
Core CPI = 2.7 or greater than 2.7

Sell if CPI = 1.8 or less than 1.8
Core CPI = 1.5 or less than

NOTE:Close the spike profit 1 minute after the news if your broker does not allow this move your stoploss to break even

Happy tradings

Reagards
  • #54
  • Nov 12, 2012 12:10pm Nov 12, 2012 12:10pm
Quoting afolabiay
GBP Consumer Price Index Previous 2.2% Forecast 2.4%
Core Consumer Price Index---Previous 2.1 Forecast 2.2

Analysis

Spike Trading - Buy GBPUSD 30 seconds before the release of the news (Stop Loss 20 Pips)

Main News - Buy If CPI = 2.9 or greater than 2.9
Core CPI = 2.7 or greater than 2.7

Sell if CPI = 1.8 or less than 1.8
Core CPI = 1.5 or less than

NOTE:Close the spike profit 1 minute after the news if your broker does...


Hi afolabiay

I'm already long GBPUSD - targeting 5950

no-brainer (IMHO anyway!)
  • #55
  • Nov 12, 2012 12:40pm Nov 12, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting jmtini
Hi afolabiay

I'm already long GBPUSD - targeting 5950

no-brainer (IMHO anyway!)
what is the meaning of IMHO?
  • #56
  • Nov 13, 2012 1:44am Nov 13, 2012 1:44am
GBP results
Spike trading +14
Main new - Not as expected

Looking for price action at 1.6000

Next News is GBP Claimant Count Change tommorow

happy pips
  • #57
  • Nov 13, 2012 1:55pm Nov 13, 2012 1:55pm
The ECOFIN meeting today ended with no visible agreement to release the €32B tranche of bailout payment, crushing the hopes of Greek politicians who are utterly aware of the €5B redemption deadline this Friday. Furthermore, ECB added fuel to the fire by denying that it would broaden collateral for Greece ELA, a move that shocked the market as traders were counting on the ECB to step in and save the day, just as before in an eerily similar fashion. Euro faced more selling pressure as European officials denied earlier reports that there would be another Greece-specific meeting later this week, although Greece Finance Minister Stournaras said he was “certain the IMF and eurozone will find the way to finalize aid” by November 26th following the Troika report on November 17th.



IMF’s Lagarde, on the other hand, was not as optimistic, even though she praised political progress in Greek parliaments but also acknowledged disagreements with European Commission on the on proper measures for Greek debt sustainability, which has implications that would jeopardise IMF’s participation in future Greek aid. EU’s Juncker, who presided today’s meeting, commented that he was confident Greece will be able to meet the €5B debt redemption and granted Greece 2 more years to achieve the 120% debt/GDP fiscal target.
Greece, on the back of these mixed signals from IMF, EU, and ECB, was able to raise a total of €4.06B in 4-WEEK and 13-WEEK BILLS today, which for the very least provided hope that they may yet raise enough money to wait out until to get paid sometimes in the next 2 weeks, hopefully.




News overview



EURUSD should be sell on price action on short signals only
  • #58
  • Nov 13, 2012 10:17pm Nov 13, 2012 10:17pm
GBP Claimant Count Change Previous -4 Forecast 0


Analysis

Spike Trading - Not recommended

Main News Trading

BUY if Actual is -9 or greater than

SELL if Actual is 10 or greater than

Note: Do not trade instantly because the news is very tricky which make it risky, wait for the market to go the news way before trading. recommend using supp and resistance area for trade decision.

Happy pips
  • #59
  • Nov 14, 2012 3:37am Nov 14, 2012 3:37am
Core Retail Sales m/m Previous 1.1 forecast 0.2
Retail Sales m/m Previous 1.1 forecast -0.2
PPI m/m previous 1.1 forecast 0.2


Analysis

Spike Trading -SELL USDJPY 30 seconds before the news 20 pips Stop Loss

Main News -
BUY USDJPY If Core Retails Sales Actual, Retail Sales & PPI = 1.8 or greater than
SELL EURUSD AUDUSD & GBPUSD if Actual = -0.9 or less greater than

Overview GBPUSD & AUDUSD come to the right way now due to Last news we will be looking for more short if USD surprise us.

Happy Pips
  • #60
  • Nov 15, 2012 1:44am Nov 15, 2012 1:44am
GBP Retail Sales

SELL GBP
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