why EURUSD defending to Down Move
Dislikedok
here why it is defending the down move
it is testing each level of old weekly HighIgnored
Hey all,
I took this trade today. Longed EU at 2710 and closed at 2730.
There was a down move at bar 1. This was after EU made a higher high. It was a wide spread bar but on failrly low volume compared to other wide spread bars. I expected volume to be more if it were to try and break 2711 which was the start of the previous wide bar.
Price did break 2711 on high volume at bar 2. It was the 2nd highest volume bar of the day thus far, but the spread of the bar was smaller than 1. It also did not close at the low. I thought to myself, could this be stops that were hit below 2711? SM have to erradicate as much sellers as possible to bring price higher.
Resistance at 2711 seems to be holding at bar 3. Price retraced 2/3 of the previous bar. It did not take a lot of volume to do that. However price came back down off resistance to close in the middle. Should I consider this bar to be no demand? I did not take it as no demand. I took it as there is demand in bars 2 and 3. If there were really sellers, price should have fallen more based on the high volume combined. There are buyers absorbing the sellers.
Price broke down again at bar 4. This was on average volume. At this point I was about to give up looking for a long because of another break down in price. BUT I kept reminding myself that buyers have to clear the sellers before bringing price up. And based on the higher high, and sluggish down move, I should still look for a long.
Again, price retraced the entire down previous bar at bar 5. A shake out? I entered a long at the close of this bar at 2710.
Suffered a slight draw down on bar 6. But this bar assured me that I was in a right trade. It was a narrow range down bar on VERY LOW volume. Lowest of the day. I took that as a no supply.
I held my trade till bar 7. Closed because markets do not like wide spread bars on super high volume. Took that as a buying climax.
Did I apply VSA correctly? Did I miss anything? Was I too long bias that I fail to see any short signals?
I took this trade today. Longed EU at 2710 and closed at 2730.
There was a down move at bar 1. This was after EU made a higher high. It was a wide spread bar but on failrly low volume compared to other wide spread bars. I expected volume to be more if it were to try and break 2711 which was the start of the previous wide bar.
Price did break 2711 on high volume at bar 2. It was the 2nd highest volume bar of the day thus far, but the spread of the bar was smaller than 1. It also did not close at the low. I thought to myself, could this be stops that were hit below 2711? SM have to erradicate as much sellers as possible to bring price higher.
Resistance at 2711 seems to be holding at bar 3. Price retraced 2/3 of the previous bar. It did not take a lot of volume to do that. However price came back down off resistance to close in the middle. Should I consider this bar to be no demand? I did not take it as no demand. I took it as there is demand in bars 2 and 3. If there were really sellers, price should have fallen more based on the high volume combined. There are buyers absorbing the sellers.
Price broke down again at bar 4. This was on average volume. At this point I was about to give up looking for a long because of another break down in price. BUT I kept reminding myself that buyers have to clear the sellers before bringing price up. And based on the higher high, and sluggish down move, I should still look for a long.
Again, price retraced the entire down previous bar at bar 5. A shake out? I entered a long at the close of this bar at 2710.
Suffered a slight draw down on bar 6. But this bar assured me that I was in a right trade. It was a narrow range down bar on VERY LOW volume. Lowest of the day. I took that as a no supply.
I held my trade till bar 7. Closed because markets do not like wide spread bars on super high volume. Took that as a buying climax.
Did I apply VSA correctly? Did I miss anything? Was I too long bias that I fail to see any short signals?
- #23,109
- Edited Nov 13, 2012 5:34am Nov 12, 2012 6:00pm | Edited Nov 13, 2012 5:34am
- Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Trader | 2,367 Posts
- #23,111
- Nov 12, 2012 8:22pm Nov 12, 2012 8:22pm
- | Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Fading the specs | 1,374 Posts
- #23,113
- Nov 12, 2012 10:47pm Nov 12, 2012 10:47pm
For those familiar with Todd Krueger's lessons, this one is pretty good in explaining what really moves the price, who's in control and how you can potentially take advantage of it.
@13:17. Do not trust those people on the forums teaching VSA. I bet he was referring to this thread!
Thanks for the video.
I agree, VSAers tend to over complicate things in an effort to become more profitable. It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that every tick is a result of the Men in Black (SM) manipulating price to trick retail traders. When you're thinking like this you will look at each bar and try to figure out their mysterious trickery.
Here's a trade that I just took. Only 1 today.
VSA experts, please give me your take on my analysis.
I took bar 1 as a selling climax. It was a wide spread bar on the highest volume of the day. It just broke a support at 2672. Whether it is a real break will be determined on the next bar.
If it was a real break, price would have continued falling. But bar 2 retraced part of the move on equally high volume. This told me that there were buyers lurking at this area. So now, I'm looking for a long.
Bar 3 broke bar 1's low at 2666 but close back at the high forming a reverse upthrust. This confirmed my call that buyers were in around the support at 2666.
I wanted to see a no supply to confirm my call. It kinda happened at bar 4. I don't know if we can call this a no supply bar? It was on volume lower than the previous 2-3 bars and it was a down bar in a down move. The spread was kinda wider than I would like.
What I was waiting for to enter was another test of the support area or if price break the high of bar 4. I entered my trade at bar 5 at 2769. My stop was below the swing low of 2658.
Bar 6 was kind of a concern for me because price close in the middle of the bar at higher volume. It was also close to a supply area. But bar 7 turned out to be no supply. So I held the trade.
I decided to close my trade at bar 8 at 2683 because SM seems to be out of the game. No effort to push price up (low volume).
about 5 mins later .... BAM! Buying climax at bar 9 up all the way to 2725!!! Damm it. This trade feel awfully similar to yesterday's trade with the sudden pop at the end.
VSA experts, would you have entered this trade? Would you have held on longer?
VSA experts, please give me your take on my analysis.
I took bar 1 as a selling climax. It was a wide spread bar on the highest volume of the day. It just broke a support at 2672. Whether it is a real break will be determined on the next bar.
If it was a real break, price would have continued falling. But bar 2 retraced part of the move on equally high volume. This told me that there were buyers lurking at this area. So now, I'm looking for a long.
Bar 3 broke bar 1's low at 2666 but close back at the high forming a reverse upthrust. This confirmed my call that buyers were in around the support at 2666.
I wanted to see a no supply to confirm my call. It kinda happened at bar 4. I don't know if we can call this a no supply bar? It was on volume lower than the previous 2-3 bars and it was a down bar in a down move. The spread was kinda wider than I would like.
What I was waiting for to enter was another test of the support area or if price break the high of bar 4. I entered my trade at bar 5 at 2769. My stop was below the swing low of 2658.
Bar 6 was kind of a concern for me because price close in the middle of the bar at higher volume. It was also close to a supply area. But bar 7 turned out to be no supply. So I held the trade.
I decided to close my trade at bar 8 at 2683 because SM seems to be out of the game. No effort to push price up (low volume).
about 5 mins later .... BAM! Buying climax at bar 9 up all the way to 2725!!! Damm it. This trade feel awfully similar to yesterday's trade with the sudden pop at the end.
VSA experts, would you have entered this trade? Would you have held on longer?