Bagovino Method

What I meant was that after taking TP2, price retraced back a bit then a litttle congestion so couldn't have considered moving SL to anything better than BE, otherwise I would have been in danger of (TP3) being knocked out of the trade prematurely. In this situation it's very tempting to take the profit on offer but with TP1&2 banked I want to stay in the trade as long as possible in case it is a good runner. As it happens it was and I then exited when it suited me. Possibly a bit of a contradiction here, but I'd had enough out of the move that I could finish for the day.
If price has moved further away from TP2 then I will consider TP1 for SL but will still be more mindful of the 5/12 recross for exit.
strada.

Today's chart below.
First trade showing a good profit (for me), dawdling at the number, decide to close and finish for the day rather than wait to see if it would break through. 1 trade over 1 hour, 45 pips, that'll do for me.

Morning Strada
Nice, I should have done the same but not all bad news for me.
T1 6.53am TP1 6.7 TP2 16.5 TP3 18.4(and this was on the recross + 2 pip confirmation so I happy at Total +40.1 (yes you read right a record for me, I have never been in such a nice holding pattern)
T2 8.07am Price reversed closed on cross + confirmation Total -24.9
T3 8.20am TP1 5.6 Closed at BE but got a good fill (unusual for me) Total +8.8
T4 8.39 continuation of T3 closed on the retrace for 2X-2.6 I always planned a short short SL on this Total -5.2
T5 8.47 TP1 7.2 TP2 6.2 (on the rebound off the whole number TP3 BE Total +13.4
For the day 3xwin 2xLoss Total +32.2
Cheers
Anthm

Good Morning Strada,
Yesterday (Monday) at 8.06 there was a short signal bar. At 8.07 I sold at 1.27031. Problem as you know is due to the whole number 1.2700 the probability of this trade reaching TP1 was reduced dramatically compared to say a sell price of say 1.2710. At 1.2710 the likelihood of it getting to TP1 is vastly increased allowing for a BE SL on TP2&3. Of course yesterday the 8.07 the signal bounced off the whole number forcing an exit at a big loss. In hindsight I should have passed. Strada do you have any strategy for how to handle this situation?
Kind Regards
Anthm

Hi Anthm, not so much fixed strategy for this situation, rather more discretion. I think it may have been the third attempt at the number and it did briefly break through, but then reversed back to the topside. Price had improved about 4 pips, maybe 3.5. various things you could have considered; exit at BE would have been in order then stepping back until price made a decision on the number (easy in hindsight). Or you could have reduced your original SL by the amount of the improvement to reduce any losses. Or you could have made an executive decision that if price came back up through the number (failed test) then exit. Or at any of the above junctures reduce your trade size to 50% or reduce your trade to 50% or 2 TP's at initial entry.
However it has to be said that if you'd decided on any of the above then Sod's Law would almost certainly have come into play, you know what would have happened then.
These numbers have to be respected, that doesn't mean avoid them, they break as much as they bounce, but I am very cautious around them.
and sometimes it's worth deploying one of the oldest strategies; if in doubt, get out!!!
If I think of anything else I'll come back to this in the morning, dinner party tonight and probably too much wine, hic, hic. See you then.
strada

Thanks Strada
all understood on the above post.
Oh and Cheers Literally,
I thought it was a late posting for you.
Anthm

Morning Strada

So glad to see you back. Its been a while. In terms of discretion what factors would you be looking at. Do you use the Daily S/R levels? or the Hourly. What would stop you from taking a trade on a cross on the RSI and 5/12 Ema's. Because you cannot take every cross on the 1 min charts. I do have sucess on the Bago, I have up days, even up weeks, but at the end of the month I have given it all back. Please could you tell me how to avoid this. What am I missing. What are you seeing that I am not.

Regards
Aj1

Tuesday Nov 13
Good Morning
Bad start for me, but ok finish
T1 6.54 continuation of previous move 2x-4.6 Total -9.2
T2 7.03 Exit Cross with confirmation 3x-2.4Total-7.2
T3 7.30 Exit Cross with conf 3x-4.7 Total-14.1
T4 7.48 TP1 7 TP 2 15.5 TP3 6.6 Waited for second cross on this plus confirmation Total +29.1
T5 9.04 TP1 5.4 TP2 6.6 TP3 7.1 all bouncing of strong resistance type of thing Total + 19.1
T6 9.35 Out of time should not have taken it scalped Total 5.1
3xwin 3xloss total +22.8
Looking forward to see your results Strada
I have to run out this evening.
Don’t tell me you slept in after the dinner party???
Cheers
anthm

Morning, sleep in Anthm?, never, groggy yes, but alive and nearly kicking (and trading).
Yes, a good day and reasonable finish time, will post the charts below and have a look at your trades later to compare, have to get out and stain some garage doors while it's decent weather. So will call back in later.

Hello AJ1, good to see you on here again, will come back to your Q's later if that's alright.

Hi, Strada
I have reading this thread with interest. Thank you for all the screenshots, I am going to give it a try. Please could you tell me what the stop loss is as I have looked through the thread and I must have missed it.

Thx

nitetrader

@ AJ1
Quote " In terms of discretion what factors would you be looking at. Do you use the Daily S/R levels? or the Hourly. What would stop you from taking a trade on a cross on the RSI and 5/12 Ema's. Because you cannot take every cross on the 1 min charts. I do have sucess on the Bago, I have up days, even up weeks, but at the end of the month I have given it all back. Please could you tell me how to avoid this. What am I missing. What are you seeing that I am not."

Hi AJ,
The things that will stop/delay an entry are imminent news (orange/red), immediate reversal against signal (I like to see some improvement, around a pip on the signal close price), and the biggest problem, Congestion. Unfortunately it often takes 2/3 losing trades before we realise, but in this situation if the congestion is confined to a small range then I'll step back and wait for the breakout and even then with great care as the first breakout isn't always reliable.
Apart from that there isn't much that will stop me from entering a trade. Sure there are round numbers, S&R, etc, but I'm of a mind that they break as well as bounce and I hate being out of a signalled trade, especially when it makes profit. So I'll enter against these barriers with some caution and will use discretion whether to stay in or exit/reduce a trade.
Also if PA is in a very obvious one way direction (on my chart, not a HTF) I may consider only trades in that direction, and/or reduced trades in the opposite direction.
I don't know what to advise in terms of maintaining monthly profit, think it can only be about getting your trading strategy and rules in good working order and be consistent with them.
Good to see you back here, put some charts up and we can discuss as necessary.
Best regards.

@ Niterider,
Hi, welcome and I wish you well with your trading plan. Re SL, for EU I use 10-12 but if I get a 5/12 recross when in a trade I will use that to exit. After the recross I wait for price to worsen by a further pip on the recross close price. I also use the 5/12 recross for exit in a trade that is in profit. Also, if a trade has gone to +4/5 or reached target and for some reason haven't closed it then I'll exit at BE. (this happened today). The only problem with this is that the trade could turn round and go into profit and I'll be sitting on my hands, very frustrating.
However I have to say that these are only my own rules and not part of the Bago rules.
Hope you enjoy trading bago, any queries throw them on here and get some feedback/discussion.
Best regards.

@ Anthm
HI Anthm, another day of profit for you, great stuff. I didn't take the early continuation trade, prefer to see a proper recross that early in the morning. Think if I had taken it I would have exited at the first sign of trouble and waited for a full signal.
On your next two trades did you get much of a + showing before price reversed? If so maybe you should consider exit at/around BE. Anyway have a think about it, I had 2 such exits this morning, it helps to minimise losses).

Kind regards, strada.

NEWS

Thanks for the Replies Strada

I see you Exited at 9.28 ish due news, The News was for GBP only I see and the Red Euro news not until 10am. Will you stay out for any currency red or orange news or just the currencies that affect the pair that you are trading? If so could you tell us the currencies you stay out with? Do you always stay out on Red and Orange news events or do you use discretion?
Kind Regards
Anthm

Morning Anthm, it was more the amount of news including inflation figures and although GBP news it can still have an impact on EU. Plus I had a decent amount of pips and looking for a finish at that time. If this hadn't been the case I may still have exited or reduced (maybe halved TP3) and watched very carefully, first sign of trouble and out. Won't be around first hour this morning, son &wife off to brazil, taking them to airport, see you later.
strada.

NOV 14th

STRADA Help

I was up 47.8, 6.54am entry for +20, 7.35am for +27.8

Lost on entrys 8.16, 8.24, 8.34

BE on entry 8.46.

The long move thats on at present I took TP1 then exited at BE needless to say went north after that so I cant get back in.
currently down a miserable 43.3.

Not sure whether to walk away or wait for the next signal

Horrible stuff

anthm

Lots and lots of lessons learnt here today, I could be sitting with my feet up having a beer with 47.8 in the bank

Total disaster, I will stay out now Red news at 10.30, I have reached my loss tolerance and losing concentration.
Big lesson learnt.

QUOTE=anthm;6193088]NOV 14th

STRADA Help

I was up 47.8, 6.54am entry for +20, 7.35am for +27.8

Lost on entrys 8.16, 8.24, 8.34

BE on entry 8.46.

The long move thats on at present I took TP1 then exited at BE needless to say went north after that so I cant get back in.
currently down a miserable 43.3.

Not sure whether to walk away or wait for the next signal

Horrible stuff

anthm

Hi Anthm, just got back, saw off son and his wife and it's my wife's birthday today so been out for breakfast.
Looks like I missed a bit of a horror story earlier.
First 2 trades, very good, and would have been enough for me. However everyone has different appetite and target so no reason why anyone else wouldn't have carried on trading.
The 3 trades you mention, no doubt about it, they were big losses.
Bearing in mind this is in hindsight and I can't be sure as I didn't see the price movements live, but here are a couple of possibilities that may have occurred.

8.16 - the recross bar was 8.21. The next 2 bars reversed (bringing you to around -4), then price moved up again and I think I may have considered an exit on the 8.22 close if it was exceeded, which it was. No great shakes but may have saved a couple of pips. You were no longer in a "holding position" of the initial trade as the 5/12 had already established a recross.

8.24 The 8.33 bar wasn't actually a recross but close, and at this point I think I might have suspected that we're in some congestion, so using that bar and possibly some recent lo's used that for exit.

8.34 I am very wary of sudden long signal bars, there's no knowing what's behind them. On EU very often it's one of the many EU officials making a speech somewhere, but also a test after a period of accumulation/distribution. But I still trade them and would have taken that signal this morning I'm sure. The actual recross bar was the 8.42 and exit would have been around -9, yes that would hurt after 2 previous losses.

The 8.42 signal would have given TP1 and possibly TP2 if there was any interest left for trading.

difficult day and would have been a long one to get back into profit. But if your head isn't in the right place best to do what you did and stay out.
strada.

Hi, Strada

Thanks for you detailed reply and keeping the thread going.
Anthm

I am sorry to hear about your trades today, however, your progress has been very impressive!

nitetrader

Thanks for that Strada. I will be posting my charts. The knowledge you are sharing is great, and I cannot thank you enough for that. Taking time to help us is much appreciated. I just wanted to say a big thank you.

Regards
Aj

Morning
Long EUR