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Another simple system - Time-Frame 15

  • #13,701
  • Nov 11, 2012 2:57am Nov 11, 2012 2:57am
Quoting Pat Chiko
Was in China recently...............

Do not over-analyze a simple photo. Focus on the good that you see and do not look for the bad that is not there.
The love given from the son to his father simply mirrors the love already given by father to son.


Reading the history of the Thread again..

That tells everything..

Stay blessed.

Love, Ciara
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #13,702
  • Nov 11, 2012 4:07am Nov 11, 2012 4:07am
Quoting Ciara

It's more than a thread. It's more than a method. It's home. It's priceless and timeless.[/size]

Love, Ciara
[/size][/size][/size]
Hi all,
very nice words from sister Ciara, I totally agree.
All my support for Master Arjun, a kind human being.

I found a wonderful place here, in this thread, with a lot of help and lot of love.
When I see all these great traders who spend a lot of time to help others, (Emmanuel, X-Man, Pat, Assange, Gibril, Ciara, Xhale12, pkimnyc, cristiansan, sasha, Vantage, Pip 26...) I have tears in my eyes.
I love you all, you are so wonderful.

thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you thank you ! I will not have enough time to thank you brothers and sisters.
Love
dom
  • #13,703
  • Nov 11, 2012 4:36am Nov 11, 2012 4:36am
Thank you for your kind words, but I am in no position to take a lead here... I will contribute as much as I can, but I am far from being an experienced trader. The only true leader is Arjun and to show him respect, we should continue what he started. Everything he did, he did for us. I am glad to see the last message from Emmanuel, he is a fantastic trader and mentor. it came at the right time and I am looking forward to learn from his vast knowledge. Thank you, brother.

Quoting santorini11
I totally agree with you.
I hope this thread will not last so soon cos this thread is the last place for Holly Grail seeking migratory bird like me.
I respect you cos you became one of the most dedicated member here in very short time. so please keep this thread running til our mentors come back.
even if it takes a while.
I am very sorry that I am not ready to post useful thread yet. I am still struggling reading first part of this threads.
Regards
  • #13,704
  • Nov 11, 2012 10:06am Nov 11, 2012 10:06am
Question for you Emmanuel. Does the inside bar in a PopGun setup have to be an opposite of the Mother bar and outside bar?


http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1352442108

See below :


http://clip2net.com/clip/m146154/135...-clip-48kb.png

Quoting emmanuel7788
yes, that looks good enough for a continuation sell setup.

...this is how one can jump onto a moving train ( only if that train has open doors or without doors)
If you want your dreams to come true, you better wake up !!!
  • #13,705
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:22pm Nov 11, 2012 12:22pm
I would love to see your plan attack for this week please.
Every professional trader studies their charts, pairs,news and get a feel what to expect.
Lets see those. please

here is mine on GU
1.News-Tues CPI "safe to trade" until Tues
2.1h Lower TL 5885 upper 6017 Med line 5952
3. Price Below 200EMA 10EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 5952
5.Sentiment down but could change.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1.gif Size: 25 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,706
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:34pm Nov 11, 2012 12:34pm
AJ
1.News-moderate news tonight that could influence the sentiment depending on numbers
2.1h Lower TL 81.96 upper 82.59 (60pip potential move) Med line 82.35
3. Price Below 200EMA 10EMA but above 800EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 82.35
5.Sentiment down but could change upon news factor tonight starting ET 7:30pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ajh1.gif Size: 24 KB
Attached Image
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,707
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:45pm Nov 11, 2012 12:45pm
Quoting Davit
I would love to see your plan attack for this week please.
Every professional trader studies their charts, pairs,news and get a feel what to expect.
Lets see those. please

here is mine on GU
1.News-Tues CPI "safe to trade" until Tues
2.1h Lower TL 5885 upper 6017 Med line 5952
3. Price Below 200EMA 10EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 5952
5.Sentiment down but could change.
Well done, bro. Will add HTF for GU only:

This WEEK, it looks like it will go further south. Tomorrow we will hit daily 200 EMA and if breached, 1.5800 BRN might be next. @GU pair, I'll be looking for pullbacks to go SHORT.

Same with EU, EJ,GJ, AJ, EC.. AC, UCH look bullish, AU neutral..HW being done..not finished yet. Just a reply

BElow GU weekly and Daily,

love, Ciara
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121111guw.jpg Size: 151 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121111gud.jpg Size: 133 KB
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #13,708
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:56pm Nov 11, 2012 12:56pm
Quoting Davit
AJ
1.News-moderate news tonight that could influence the sentiment depending on numbers
2.1h Lower TL 81.96 upper 82.59 (60pip potential move) Med line 82.35
3. Price Below 200EMA 10EMA but above 800EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 82.35
5.Sentiment down but could change upon news factor tonight starting ET 7:30pm

Be careful brother..
Bearish, ARjun candle Daily, but lots of support below...82 BRN that breached, could see a waterfall decline..

Below AJ Daily

Love, Ciara
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20121111ajd.jpg Size: 114 KB
Ideas shape the course of history
  • #13,709
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:56pm Nov 11, 2012 12:56pm
Euro (queen which effects everything) so much more care about her.

EU Daily
1.News-Eurogroup Meetings all day Monday (red box) Tues German economic sentiment.Remains to be seen what influence the meeting Monday may produce.
2.Daily Lower TL27.10 upper 3139 (400pip potential move) Med line 29.35 (more realistic 200pip) on daily
3. Price Below 800EMA 200EMA 10EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 29.35
5.Sentiment down but could change upon news factors

EU H1 (my favorite)
TL low 2690 Upper TL 2790
Median 2740ish
Possible very probable 100pip up move to Upper TL
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euh1.gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euh11.gif Size: 24 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,710
  • Nov 11, 2012 12:58pm Nov 11, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting Ciara
Be careful brother..
Bearish, ARjun candle Daily, but lots of support below...82 BRN that breached, could see a waterfall decline..

Below AJ Daily

Love, Ciara
Hi sister
Its a projection of the battlefield.No orders just survey studies.
Regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,711
  • Nov 11, 2012 1:02pm Nov 11, 2012 1:02pm
Quoting Ciara
Well done, bro. Will add HTF for GU only:

This WEEK, it looks like it will go further south. Tomorrow we will hit daily 200 EMA and if breached, 1.5800 BRN might be next. @GU pair, I'll be looking for pullbacks to go SHORT.

Same with EU, EJ,GJ, AJ, EC.. AC, UCH look bullish, AU neutral..HW being done..not finished yet. Just a reply

BElow GU weekly and Daily,

love, Ciara
It depends what this meeting of Euro heads on Monday brings forth.
According to Donchian genius 3 day move follows by 1 retrace.We could see overall retrace of EU,GU,AU to 50%
also you are developing bias too early.That could hinder how you see PA
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,712
  • Nov 11, 2012 2:30pm Nov 11, 2012 2:30pm
Thx Davit and Ciara for good info to start the week!

My thoughts for GU

Looking bearish on the 4 Hour but the MA are getting apart
GU Daily at the 200MA and also testing daily S/R about 1.5916
Might be over extended in v short term. I will be looking to see how price behaves around daily 200 and the 5916 levels on the lower TFs
Overall bearish, but maybe a bounce, looking for fail of 50 or 200 on the 1 hr
P

Quoting Davit
I would love to see your plan attack for this week please.
Every professional trader studies their charts, pairs,news and get a feel what to expect.
Lets see those. please

here is mine on GU
1.News-Tues CPI "safe to trade" until Tues
2.1h Lower TL 5885 upper 6017 Med line 5952
3. Price Below 200EMA 10EMA
4.Area of interest Median line at 5952
5.Sentiment down but could change.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu daily 12 nov 2012.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4hr 12 nov 2012.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #13,713
  • Nov 11, 2012 2:45pm Nov 11, 2012 2:45pm
Quoting peetee09
Thx Davit and Ciara for good info to start the week!

My thoughts for GU

Looking bearish on the 4 Hour but the MA are getting apart
GU Daily at the 200MA and also testing daily S/R about 1.5916
Might be over extended in v short term. I will be looking to see how price behaves around daily 200 and the 5916 levels on the lower TFs
Overall bearish, but maybe a bounce, looking for fail of 50 or 200 on the 1 hr
P
Good analyses.Its important to be unbiased until you see signs to develop bias.
Potential 1st target 5950
In case you are wondering what those green candles are-they are based on volume and signal profit taking "stations" usually after a move.I look for reversal or continuation.Basically early warning system for me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu1h.gif Size: 24 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,714
  • Nov 11, 2012 3:57pm Nov 11, 2012 3:57pm


Hi 99problems,
maybe my answer is a little bit late...(after over 30h) but i will try.

I see one valid setup with very high probability_entrypoint nr. 2 right at the 10ema, with 2pips SL above the doji (with much confirmation_below 200ema,break 200ema,break_bounce RN, Yesterday Close, ema´s slopes,htf resistance……)and a second entrypoint at nr.3 with small SL.


Entrypoint nr.1_seems not to be a valid one and a little bit risky if we only look at 15M. But if we look at HTF we see this is a good setup. Slope of EMAs on HTF_LH´s,LL´s, yesterday high_support//resistance,adr reached,…and the pin bar after marubozu…buyers weak//3-bar setup. A lot of support behind our back to go short….if we only look at 15m TF we pay special attention to break of TL,adr, candlesticks,yesterdays high as Resistance?


…i always learn alot from your posts and try to study!for learning purpose...are the marked three candles a popgun formation?
greetings
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 99_.png Size: 56 KB
  • #13,715
  • Nov 11, 2012 4:12pm Nov 11, 2012 4:12pm
I am watching UCAD attentively.Price is virtually on the border to cross huge psychological 1.00 zone however I sense this could become a bullish week for Euro thus potential shorting of UC
Its very juicy play.Waiting for confirmation.No liquidity yet so waiting for volume to increase.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uc.gif Size: 22 KB
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,716
  • Nov 11, 2012 5:31pm Nov 11, 2012 5:31pm
Something amusing to share.
GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index

One can see clearly how even temp gravitates towards median line.One can see Fibs there as well.Maybe even Arjun's system
http://i55.tinypic.com/zur19i.jpg
Volcano?
http://i53.tinypic.com/29cw9dc.jpg
Dr. Andrews determined price action returned to the line approximately 80% of the time. (look up Andrews pitchfork)
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #13,717
  • Nov 11, 2012 6:08pm Nov 11, 2012 6:08pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
AUDJPY:

Here is a Candlesticks (CS) Pattern practice.
Try it.

Have a Good Trading Day.

HI ALL,

Here are my thoughts on that AJ CS pattern.

Candles 1,2,3,4,5 and 6:

First, you must know that I follow my charts at 4-hour intervals therefore I see the 4-hour periods on my M15 chart. I do this to see how the H4 (*note) candle close and see the CS pattern for potential trade setup.

*note > different broker server time will show different H4 close. I use GMT00 as my start of day so the first H4 candle is that when Tokyo open at GMT0000.

On the AJ chart posted:
At the start of this day, you must already seen where the previous D Open , High, Low and Close levels are. Seeing the previous D candle, the probability of bearish continuation downwards is higher than a bullish move. Risk is this D candle is closed above 10EMA,

Then you must have notice the 200EMA and 50EMA is in the PA region. By now you must have done the Daily routine and decided to be buyer or seller.

Observe that the candles before candle#1, the candles are all very small range and these are all part of a 4H period.

The sudden bullish candle #2 then follow by price consolidation seen as 2 small doji (# 3 and #4) must have caught your attention as it is on the 200EMA.

Then the candle #5 strong push down candle #5 is a first sign of price reversal but we need to check for the H1 close and also H4 close.

This price reversal can be seen using candles #2,3,4,5, with candles #4+#5 forming a Bearish Engulfing H1 which is not yet closed.

Candle#6 (which is the 15th M15 candle of the H4) shows strong push down, indicate that the H4 will close with long upper shadow (pin bar) and 200EMA (or 10EMA on H4) is right above.

You must also notice that several of the H4 candles are below the 10EMA and this is seen on M15 chart when PA is below the 200EMA. Also you may notice that the first H4 candle of the day is a ‘mother’ candle with PA within its high-low range and a breakout is imminent. All these put together plus the candle#6 mentioned above is a first sign of a pullback (Pin bar) on H4 at 10EMA. So we decide to be on Seller side.

The decision is to SELL as PA move away from the 200EMA.

Where to target?

Since we are ‘expecting' the break of the previous Low, we use the Prev D fibo-e 127% and 161%.

<end>

For newbies, I recommend that you use the Triple Screen which I posted earlier and practise to see the M15 PA and H1 and H4 all on one same computer screen. After sometime you will gain enough exeprience and you will only need to see ALL in One M15 chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 8 Nov CSP .png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AJ 8 Nov fibo-e .png Size: 40 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #13,718
  • Nov 11, 2012 6:14pm Nov 11, 2012 6:14pm
Quoting Davit
What makes this thread special is the input of many great traders.It creates positive pool to feed each-other to excel on higher level.
The "system" is the thread.
total agree gives all traders confidence
  • #13,719
  • Nov 11, 2012 6:33pm Nov 11, 2012 6:33pm
Quoting leztuh
Hi 99problems,
maybe my answer is a little bit late...(after over 30h) but i will try.

I see one valid setup with very high probability_entrypoint nr. 2 right at the 10ema, with 2pips SL above the doji (with much confirmation_below 200ema,break 200ema,break_bounce RN, Yesterday Close, ema´s slopes,htf resistance……)and a second entrypoint at nr.3 with small SL.


Entrypoint nr.1_seems not to be a valid one and a little bit risky if we only look at 15M. But if we look at HTF we see this is a good setup. Slope of EMAs on HTF_LH´s,LL´s, yesterday...

Hi,

just to clarify what is a "Pop Gun":


study the three candles carefully and make it wired into your brain

Also learn that not all Pop Guns are made equal.

You must zoom out and see where and what the market is doing.

When you are not in the market, you cannot feel its heartbeat and follow its rhythm.

Hope you know what I mean.

Trade Well!
Attached Image
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #13,720
  • Nov 11, 2012 8:06pm Nov 11, 2012 8:06pm
Markets in ranging mode now.I suspect we won't see a clear direction until London.
AU failed to break 418 1hr TL
UCAD dropped 9 pips to 95.I posted about UCAD few posts ego. Something I observed. UCAD usually drops more on London session then NY.
Could be local effect since Canada is right up here generally Americans like to back greenbacks against the Loonie.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
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