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GBP/JPY

  • #441
  • Nov 5, 2012 7:09am Nov 5, 2012 7:09am
Quoting jphotdeals
heading south from here to the 128 mark..
128 hit good time to close out trade, but will wait one more level to 127.00. Then I think we would complete the move
  • #442
  • Nov 5, 2012 11:39am Nov 5, 2012 11:39am
Quoting Mpt
There is now extreme bearish divergence on most TFs coming in. All indicators DO NOT point south ... yet. With the exception of bearish divergence, indicators remain 50:50.

But history remains on the bearish side.

Attachment

UJ broke its descending TL, but closed just under it. GU, well ... as the saying goes, it's never too late to sell the pound. And it looks bearish anyway.

Price struggled to break the 127.8 TL in purple (61.8 retracement level). The orange TL shown dates back to about 1995. It's had a significant...
All my indicators point south... I do not have much, I have enough to make my trades, anyway I agree with your view, see you at the bottom, more pips to you.
  • #443
  • Edited 7:45pm Nov 5, 2012 7:44pm | Edited 7:45pm
if we break 127.000 their will be a big bounce off of 126.187
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  • #444
  • Nov 5, 2012 8:47pm Nov 5, 2012 8:47pm
I'll put the BULL/BEAR argument in a different context. Usually a picture says a thousand words.

You may note strong similarities between the current moves and those coming up from 120.8.

During that whole time, GJ has been in its very much favourite pattern, the expanding triangle. The first move to 128.8 completed wave 3, then it went in three lesser waves down to 124.7 for wave 4.

Its wave 5 ended up again in what looks like an expanding triangle - or it could just be a consolidation top.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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If you "believe" that the final wave completed during NFP at 129.6, then you should be very bearish, and a possible bounce coming soon should only be a retracement before a large drop. That argument is very valid.

If you "believe" that the NFP move was only part of a wave 4 of 5 consolidation, then at the next bounce you may well be quite bullish. Maybe only to 130.5 or so but maybe much higher. And that argument is very valid too!

In any consolidation like this, both divergence and indicators will trick you ... or not. The next 24~36 hours will tell. And maybe this down move will just accelerate. I'm not trying to be stupid, but just pointing that sometimes things aren't as they appear.
  • #445
  • Nov 6, 2012 1:42am Nov 6, 2012 1:42am
Are we there yet?
Did we hit the Trendline?
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  • #446
  • Nov 6, 2012 2:30am Nov 6, 2012 2:30am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Are we there yet?
Did we hit the Trendline?
Plan your trade and trade your plan, if you think this is a good entry go for it. The only way to be successful in trading is learning by doing. Don't let the analysis of others sway you to take trades. Do what you think is best for your account. Take control of your destiny, you are the key to your own success.
  • #447
  • Nov 6, 2012 3:03am Nov 6, 2012 3:03am
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Are we there yet?
Did we hit the Trendline?
Nope
  • #448
  • Edited 1:53pm Nov 6, 2012 1:41pm | Edited 1:53pm
Was I the only one that went Long? Everyone else is shorting the beast?
Nice W formation...
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  • #449
  • Nov 6, 2012 4:29pm Nov 6, 2012 4:29pm
I find it interesting...
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  • #450
  • Edited 7:40pm Nov 6, 2012 6:44pm | Edited 7:40pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
I find it interesting...
Yes, with only few exceptions they're forming consolidation tops. For GJ compare with March 2012. It just means that the wave is working itself out in time rather than distance.

If the analogy is correct, we should fall (eventually) to the 125 area as a first move. Then 127, then 119.

It is entirely possible that this is the start area of the final move to the bottom and we may see 110 before we see 130
  • #451
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:08pm Nov 6, 2012 8:08pm
Mpt, since you are up and private emails can't be sent to you, may I ask you, how long did it take you to figure everything out (to be profitable)? If I understand correctly, this is your primary source of income, may I ask, what is your screen time?
  • #452
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:23pm Nov 6, 2012 8:23pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
Mpt, since you are up and private emails can't be sent to you, may I ask you, how long did it take you to figure everything out (to be profitable)? If I understand correctly, this is your primary source of income, may I ask, what is your screen time?
I'm up because it's early afternoon here and the sun is shining. I wasn't aware of the email thing, but PM is on. I have enabled email now.
  • #453
  • Nov 6, 2012 8:27pm Nov 6, 2012 8:27pm
Quoting Mpt
I'm up because it's early afternoon here and the sun is shining. I wasn't aware of the email thing, but PM is on. I have enabled email now.
And here is 3.30 am, we had severe floods in the country yesterday, water got into approximately 2000 homes in my small country. So off I go to bed!
  • #454
  • Nov 6, 2012 9:22pm Nov 6, 2012 9:22pm
Quoting IndigoPingvi
And here is 3.30 am, we had severe floods in the country yesterday, water got into approximately 2000 homes in my small country. So off I go to bed!
Yes I read about the floods. Hope all is well.
  • #455
  • Nov 7, 2012 8:57am Nov 7, 2012 8:57am
Draghi made a speech and crashed the price. Bravo.
  • #456
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:01am Nov 7, 2012 9:01am
Quoting Mpt
I wasn't aware of the email thing, but PM is on. I have enabled email now.
Something must be wrong as I can not see your PM or email. Maybe you set it up in a way that only buddy's can see it?
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  • #457
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:51am Nov 7, 2012 9:51am
Possible channel and important EMA at the same place... If price drops through here, we'll probably see 125 trendline.
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  • #458
  • Nov 7, 2012 8:29pm Nov 7, 2012 8:29pm
this is what I see. Any body care?
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  • #459
  • Nov 7, 2012 9:12pm Nov 7, 2012 9:12pm
Quoting jphotdeals
this is what I see. Any body care?
This thing is getting very frustrating. It sits there and we all get older.

I still think it'll make another go at the top, as GU looks like it's going up a bit. Assuming it finally goes down (one day in the very distant future ) we'll probably see bounces in the area you specified.
  • #460
  • Nov 8, 2012 12:15am Nov 8, 2012 12:15am
Quoting jphotdeals
this is what I see. Any body care?
I care, but can't figure out how you got to that level/ how you draw that trendlines.
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