Australian Bear Raid

i trade aud, jpy, eur, dax, sp, spi, CL, Nikkei and occasional stock trade. Main trades (winners) last from 2 days to max 4 weeks. However, I can handle properly 1 trade at the time, so I prefer to cut holding time to give time for new opportunity and grab only first straight leg of move.

I wonder if I did it full time whether I will be able to spot opportunities on shorter timeframe and so speed up compounding. Last 18 mths here

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post6160275

I will subscribe to that thread. Let me finally get the old sheet I used to use for comparison and goal attainment for each quarter I will post it tonight as I am refining it now

Australia has a mining-heavy/technology-light index. This in part explains why market-wide EPS forecasts for the ASX200 have been cut more than almost every other market in the world, including Europe

http://static6.businessinsider.com/i...a-earnings.png
MS analyst

Moment of truth time in this position since last cut lets see if reflexivity reasserts itself in the underlying or if expectations v. Reality further converge

closing out of everything brb

Out of everything completly flat. This loss will be made up through swing trades for 20-30 ticks next week in and out. I have not swing traded in some time but it looks like I need to go back to basics because I am too early on this Macro trade.

For those going long remeber the confluence walls at 1.0435-40 that will be broken later this week. As for me I need a few days to separate and come back a new next week making up this loss.

Might not be that you are too early but RBA is too late on taking action to weaken the Aussie dollar. I'm looking on the bright side and waiting for 1.05+ to load up short. Have gone from net short to net long in the mean time to try and make some money and stop losing on swaps for time being. Good luck!

right on the nose.... wait till it comes down a bit after news/momentum boys are done then continue with piling in. Have a great week all

Macroman,

I still have not received my laptop back with the full more efficient excel sheet on what I used to use as a guide for increasing size so I made this while waiting for the RBA decision the last couple hours.


Points to take away.

This is a straight line breakdown, as you see all losses happen right away but there could be so many variations of winning days and losing days throughout the quarter but for simplicity purposes I showed them in thebegining.

the calculations are all based on a 50:1 leverage and AUD/USD at 1.04 to figure margin.

Even though I mention that no more than 30% of total account should be used on total margin I set the position size at at or below 25% as to leave me a buffer of 5% as the stop loss difference.

Now the way I used to use the other sheet was I would show a chart of the breakdown attached (different account starting size though) and then enter in my PnL each day to compare to the current trend (graph breakdown) If for example I started to deviate towards the 0% side of the sheet my chart would show the straightline breakdown on the chart and slightly above it would be my actual day's PnL. Same for if I was losing more days compared to the Trend then I would show the straightline trend and the actual PnL hovering below that line.


I show multiple default rates which means days out of the quarter that are losers. I did not enter in a number exceeding 40% because that would be a losing system or less than minimum wage in most areas. Generally You want to be in the middle to left of course with the trend and if your having 0% default rates I will send you some money to manage


Now I only show increase in size at each quarter, but say for example your doing exceptionally well and can add to the lot size prior to the next quarter w/o exceeding the 30% threshold you can certainly do that and like I mentioned my other sheet is has a more efficient interface to skew and manipulate the data to the users needs.


I will post this sheet soon as it allows for change in Leverage amount, starting capital amount, Variation in <> 30% between quarters and is VBA coded to type in the trade journal and have it show on the adjusted trend chart to see your current deviation.

(10.00=$10/pip 1.0=$1/pip 0.1=.10/pip

Well we still have the US election to consider and of course the G20 meetings, Euro summit, etc. The S&P defense of 1400, if broken, will have a negative effect on the AUD (my opinion only lol). So will the drop in gold prices but that is all speculation at the moment.

Sorry to hear of your loss because you contribute so much to this forum.

JP you sooo calm, knowing position size you were holding for a month and found time to respond anonymous poster on FF after a loss !!

Thanks a lot for sharing account growing experience. I see your points and will revise my plan.

Curious as to whether you mean that area won't be broken earlier? I would have thought there are likely to be some spikes up & down with US election news. Interested to hear others thoughts on this.

Looking back at 2004 and 2008 AUD/USD Daily candles, there was really nothing "abnormal" about them.

2008 was a little more choppy but that was literally at the time of the financial crisis. However, 2004 Daily candle was perfectly "normal" as far as I could tell.

I know this question was for JP but I just wanted to share what I saw last night when I was looking at past election charts.

Thanks 100pips! First part of my question was more for JP but second part was inviting anyone's thoughts. I've just finished catching up on AUD/USD thread where I think Ken suggested looking at last election dates (which I've still to do)

No prob Dab. I actually took a look at a few Daily candles on multiple currency pairs after Ken posted in the AUD thread.

Even FF doesn't have US elections as a "High Impact" event, it is a "Medium Impact" event.

This is probably due to the fact that regardless who wins, monetary policy won't change instantaneously if at all in the very near future. However, we are in some pretty crazy times so might be a little more volatility than usual, but I'm not counting on it!

As per The Fibs and a couple other ways to determine levels of hgh support/Resistance I personally think given the recent action that the Fib walls are a great Gauge for entry/exit. I did say that the walls will break upwards but as of right now the 1.0435-40 last defense is holding. Seeing unemployment or simply profit taking coming in we could trade back to 1.04 where the middle layer lies to test. From there yes I suspect we trade back and test 1.0435-40 once more.

If they are not broken than I got out early but the whole reason I got out was because the original 'framework' for shorting AUD is not as solid since the beginning of last month. So I will wait this time for a daily breakdown before even stepping in again.

Everything would be OK if it weren't for the fact the Chinese reporting system does not equate to reality. Not only this but the Chinese have more problems they are not letting the world know about but it is not a secret to everybody. So many analysts are blaming the lack of growth in China on Europe but that is a camouflage. That is no different from the United States which comes out with daily negative news yet the S&P rallies.

So there are actually 3 scenarios to consider.
1. Obama wins - nothing changes
2. Romney wins - nothing changes
3. Tie - nothing changes

Actually that is a bit trite. if Romney wins, there would most likely be a change at the fed and probably the market would show lots of volatility. Even with an Obama win there may be a lot of pressure to put off the imagined effects of the fiscal cliff. However, if he immediately says he still intends to go ahead with the tax increases, this will strengthen the US dollar (my opinion only) which means to me a fall in AUDUSD . A tie or a congressional stalemate complicates matters and I can't comment on that so much.

here is how i see aud. i personaly believe that this trade was overcrowded. Looks like all AU banks were short AUD (based on their comments) expecting easy money based on their quant statistics.

Id have to agree on the overcrowded part I was thinking a back to back cut like many others so now it comes down to deleveraging.

I will be watching unemployment in coming in afew days specifically from Tasmania and Queensland they could pose issues for the whole continent if the rate trend continues upwards