Trading EURUSD only

What do you think guys, possible start to week?

exactly if im wrong... but If you Know JPY is the weak currencie in that day you are protected. Sometimes you know sometimes you think you know and sometimes you think you know and you loose....

you are inbalancing your POSS EURJPY trade & paying double cost.
juts think about it.

while thinking use paper money. "monopoly money" I mean. this way is absolutly not stupid. use paper money on table, make your trade with those infront of your eyes, help your brain to think only the actions.

you will see I am wright.

if you do it & I am wrong let me know

The analysis below is based on the idea that the market is mean reverting and fractal in structure. It is also underpinned by the understanding that because the market is mathematically chaotic no two price cycles or waves will express in the same exact way. This is particularly relevant to trading the Euro at this time - since we are in fact reverting from a unitary extreme as has been the case twice before. Most important is that mean reversion completely explains price movement and does not explicitly admit speculation outside the mechanics defined for mean reverting markets - which are simple and intuitive in their implications.

Fractal Trail MN – H4 (what is really going on)

 

1. MN the unitary time frame recorded a bounce off of the 20420 return line or pivot 07/2012. This reaction fully met mean reversion criteria; among other things the unitary frame was (and remains) in dynamic equilibrium or range under a bearish trend line which provides 95% confidence that price reaching either of two range extremes (negative or positive) will be promptly returned to range to trend to the opposite extreme. Price had diverged 2 Standard Deviations from unitary mean at the point of reversion (measured on the MRM 54 chaotic scale; one of a series of proprietary metrics for measuring volatility). The volatility span or range was not changed in size at the point of reversion (and has not changed since the reaction began) therefore ruling out price behavior different than what is to be expected in a ranging unitary market (e.g. price behavior such as in a flat unitary market or consolidation and a unitary market trending in "free" range). In other words the volatility span still measures approximately the same on our chaotic scale as before the event. In terms of momentum this reversion move is not constrained as a unit by any valid divergences either in the unitary or fractal frames to which price needs to correct except that in WK1 to which price is now correcting.
   
2. Consistent with mean reversion theory and historical observations of price behavior in that context, the unitary time frame has recorded an upwardly mobile Euro since the said pivot reaching the first of 9 (-3) volatility envelopes in its path on our chaotic scale and closing with a positively signed price bar within it last month. This entry and close by a positively signed bar implies that initial momentum is uncompromised and the opening price action seen in the current monthly bar is fully explained or attributable to sequential corrections in lower dimensions or fractions of the unit to compensate for extremes reached within those time frames as a result of the “effort” required to move the unit into the first volatility envelope in the unitary chaotic scale (over 10,750 points or 1000 Pips from reversion pivot and hence the observed divergence in WK1 now in play). It is therefore reasonable (5% chance of error) to expect unitary equilibrium to be restored by any of three possible levels - 1.27936, 1.27540 and 1.27500 (or simply by the 1.27 handle).
   
3. In terms of fractal expressions of unitary or MN dynamic we see a rectangular range in the weekly defined by return lines 1.31295 and 1.27936 and consisting of rows of price bars alternating in color within that stochastic space. The daily is in dynamic equilibrium (the exact same volatility structure as MN at this time and therefore should post similar behavior near term) with price “oscillating” within the range defined by the weekly and is currently in a down phase to the projected low of that range. It is therefore reasonable to project with (95%) confidence a resumption in the unitary trend or direction on reaction from the estimated low expressed in the fractal range mentioned. The idea of mean reversion and price behavior within it is self-contained and admits no speculation outside of known price behaviors within that structure and helps to not only focus the trader’s mind on price dynamic but reduce hesitancy in reading the market and making entry and exit decisions (especially for medium to long-term speculation).
   
4. Immediate price action or dynamic is expected to remain bearish until unitary equilibrium and reaction or reversion from negative extremes in the fractal frames (in particular D1 and WK1) becomes evident. While H4 may appear oversold by the usual measures, on our chaotic scale there is still room to accommodate another 25 to 50 or so Pips of downside action without retrace in H4. It is important to consider that within a mean reverting framework and the fractal structure that defines the market – H4 may be the best chart frame to read the market for the expected reaction to the upside (and any failure of unitary trend resumption in the case of one). D1 may not provide the desired clarity for timing the reaction up compared to H4 - as the current dynamic is pretty immediate being isolated as it is to the current monthly bar (i.e. solely attributable to vertical fluctuations within it) and coming from the left side of the feed (- infinity) rather than the result of right hand (+ infinity) configurations e.g. unitary resistance, etc which configurations appear to be stable and as described above. In other words, looking at time frames larger than H4 may give clues too late for prompt detection and timing of tendency. In simple terms one expects a reaction from the estimated lows to entail zero or very little corrective play within H4.

PS: It is very important to note that what we are saying here is that the unit has not reached any unitary resistance at this time (trend is not stalled) – rather the lower scales or dimensions of the pair have exceeded upper limits within the associated reversion limits in the different fractal frames and need to correct to levels that will allow further buying to drive the unit up (this occurs sequentially on a LIFO (or FILO) basis). In other words, no point speculating about so-called “fundamentals” in making basic trade decisions (which frankly speaking is akin to reading the entrails of dead animals given the complex of intentions motivating buyers and sellers at any one time). Price moves in phases up and down whether going up or going down. But when the unit (as a whole i.e. MN) is moving up (or down) that is the trend until and unless it comes to some unitary resistance (support) and is reversed which in this case is still way up – all other time frames or fractions will obey its primary dictates or dynamic subject to reversion plays defined for their specific fractal dimensions which is non-integral on any scale. However, it is clear that were unitary trend to fail at this point - there would be sufficient indications from H4 patterns to signal such failure and hence the 1/20 chance of error in this assessment.

I am still reading

I do not know what "you" mean by filters but a filter could be......trading above or below the 200ma.......going with the trend.....double checking with the S&P and so on(non of these are mine,I am just using them as an example).
But all systems have filters in a certain way.....
I am sorry I will totally no agree with this......you can also get killed non stop when you take trades with no filter because you want to catch that odd trade....that is gambling.....
Filters is putting the odds in your favor......
I have not seen 1 profitable trader "long term" trading naked...you have to trade with the odds in your favor or.....luck will run out....
my 2 cents.....

hey 4x, resting for a week-long trade, what about you?

My friend,

I am resting, doing some back testing, Can't wait to see what the week holds for us......
What do you think......?

Hello Steve! good day. this is what I expect, but of course it all depends on the price action and the sage time. what do you guys think?

You said it my friend.....exactly.....this is it.....I am waiting for the bounce .....but I am happy to see someone that can see both sides......cause the market likes to surprise traders.....if you think that it might turn.....there is no surprise.....
Traders that are biased on one direction usually loss more money, cause the marry there trades....

Yeah, I'm anxious, I think that with the London market price reaches 1.2896 maybe, here we will fight to the price and then the New York market will go down., but I will be careful if you pass something else entirely.

For FX no filters. Just 2 EMA's.

Yes, good question


Your proposed 3 would have, at least, the most momentum. That would fit :-)

But then again you would have a wave 1 wave 4 overlap by around 285 pips.


OK, that could be a leading diagonal down. In a leading diagonal we have impulsive moves with an wave 1 wave 4 overlap.

But then the following wave 2 up would only have retraced 38.2%. But as a rule of thumb: after a leading diagonal we like to see retracements to at least 62.8, much better 74.6-82.3%

So to simply go with probabilities the counts are less likely.

Read my blog here http://singulorum001.blogspot.de/201...ysis-15th.html

where I analyzed the various possibilities......

"Normally" It should re trace to the 2882 area.....but that does not mean that it will......so we trade what it will give us....we have to wait and see....
I would love to see it @2896.....

Shiko
the way your are trading EURUSD you have one OPP.
which is when traidng it with >800 pip Target & trading relativly Tight SL to Target EURUSD is in general making that long run.

SO for you 2 MA can be enough.

Kind of that I am looking too :-)

I have to say and be honest.....I really like your MA's.....my friend...if you can trade like that I am seriously happy for you cause it is a achievement.....(I will double check them myself).....

Really nice blog my friend!!! I will definitely follow it......
Very interesting!

TY
already know your blog
visitng there time to time.
will do it more often.

this is the most scare answer I can get.
due now we have PB % s as an "IF" statement!!

Sure, I do not know why, but I think that this week, the U.S. elections will have their part in the Dollar rises. time will tell, I also thinkin in a retrece to between 1.3015 - 1.3045